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Lafayette Investment Club2/11/11
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• Club News• Portfolio• Financial News• Education - Commodities• Stock Opinion - Equus Total Return (EQS)
Agenda
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SPRING 2011 Events:
• Next Meeting – Feb 18• • Greg Ip – journalist, US Econ• Thu Feb 17, 4:15pm @ Simon L3
• Market Madness – trading contest Feb 21 – April 1• Wall St Speaker Panel – April 6
• Officer Elections – end of semester
Club News
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Wed 16th Feb 8.00am-9.00am - Introduction to Trading
Wed 23rd Feb 8.00am-9.00am - Intermediate Trend Trading & Live Trades
Trading Webinars
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• Current value ~ $370,815• Down .4% vs. S&P up .76%
Portfolio
DANGER: Technology stocks (CSCO)
26% of portfolio in TECH STOCKS
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Markets•Dow 12,229.29•S&P 500 1321.87•Oil $87.22•Gold 1,366.80•USD/EUR 0.7387
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•Mixed Signals from the job report• Unemployment rate falls to 9%• Payrolls increased by 36,000, not 200,000
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• Inflation fears• Emerging markets• Bernanke• Bond Market
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•NYSE Euronext and Deutsche Börse in advanced merger talks
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Superbowl
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CommoditiesEducation
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Definition•A kind of thing produced for use or sale, an article of commerce, an object of trade; in pl. goods, merchandise, wares, produce. Now esp. food or raw materials, as objects of trade.
- Oxford English Dictionary
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Examples•Soybeans•Wheat•Gold•Silver•Oil
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Advantages/Disadvantages(different from other securities)
•Recongnized hedge against inflation• Provide increased diversification for portfolio
• No fixed income stream
• Volatile
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Gain or loss?
• Inflation• Financial panics• Increased industrial demand• Increased consumer demand
• Deflation• Depression when
governments don’t turn on the printing presses
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How to earn returns on commodities?
• Futures contracts• Physical purchase•ETFs•Mutual Funds•Anything else?
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Monetary BaseIn Billions of Dollars
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 20110.000
500.000
1000.000
1500.000
2000.000
2500.000
Source: FRED Data
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EQS
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What is EQS (Equus Total Return)•Equus Total Return, Inc. operates as a closed-end business development company
• Provides funds/make investment to growing small companies.
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Financials
•Current Price: 2.75•EPS: -3.85 •Beta: 0.06•Net Income : -6.41 Million(2010 Q3), -12.26 (Q2)
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Income•Bad years + Bad Quarters
EQS
GLAD
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Balance Sheet + Cash Flow
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Recent NewsEquus Sells Three Related
Investments for Ten Million in Cash
• The operating results of each of these companies had declined, and collectability of the notes was therefore called into question
• Bad Investments – sold in huge discount, big loss.
• Maybe they have some liquidity problem
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EQS Rocks… or does it?
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RSI-Colin
•RSI: 83.33
•RSI measures the momentum of the price movements.
•Overvalued!
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WHAT DOES THIS SUGGEST?
•SELL!!!!!!
(close entire position)