Outline
• Overview of L3MTO algorithm• Current Operation Flowchart• QC Flowchart• COOP Station Burden• Requirements• Sample Modules for:
– Annual Calculations– Monthly Calculations
• Alaska & Hawaii Outlooks• Sample Output:
– XML– QC– ARC
• Archival • Support• Timeline
L3MTO Scientific Development:L3MTO Scientific Development:Operational productionOperational production
CD data Station data
Regression Analysis1971-2000
1996-2005 Trend Significance
Significant?
Intercept AdjustmentYes
No
CPC CD forecastMean and St. Dev.
Station Forecast Solution
Verification/Correlation filter
Pass?
Merge
Forecast data Climatology Data
Distribution and Display
Once a year routine:Once a year routine: Once a month routine:Once a month routine:
Yes No
Multivariate statisticsRegression Coefficients
Verification
Create ARC data
CPC: CD forecast
Technical Support Team:Collect & respond toCollect & respond to trouble ticketstrouble tickets
WFO:1.1. Ensure link to the productEnsure link to the product2.2. Secondary QC of the productSecondary QC of the product3.3. Local value addedLocal value added4.4. Customer services and outreachCustomer services and outreach
Annette:1.Make forecast2.Primary QC3.3.Fix troublesFix troubles
Web Team:1. Post product on web
2. Hosts the product3.3. Fix TroublesFix Troubles
Operational FlowOperational Flow
Archive
CPC
WFO QCWFO QC
Erroneous Data Check
Approve data
Web & Functionality Error Check
Conspicuous Data Check
Send trouble ticket to WS
Pass
Pass
Pass
Fail
FailSend trouble ticket to Technical Team
Start
Other Discrepancy
Fail
Fail
Go through Trouble Ticket Checklist
Pass
Pass
Fail
Section A
Section B
Section C
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
Station Burden
• All Sites: 4,621 from Homogenized Data Set• Sub-set: 1,187• Proposals:
– CPC automation will calculate All sites and send a sub-set to web team until such time that web team can handle All sites
*** OR ***– CPC will push All sites to web team, and web
team will sub-set
Requirements
• Software– Linux OS– Perl– Wget or sftp
• Hardware– Linux Machine
• Storage– Annual Data ~3 GB (~400MB Compressed)– Monthly Data ~300 MB (~38MB Compressed)– ~7 GB per year (~860MB Compressed)
Sample Module for Annual Calculations
Please open attached file:
“Sample Display when using Annual L3MTO module.pdf”
Alaska & Hawaii(the problem child!!)
• No real way to automate the annual calculations
• Need to coordinate with Dave Unger & CPC L3MTO Team to find best way to incorporate this into annual routine
Sample QC Output
• Random check of 10% of all stations (~500)-Non-repeating-Includes AK & HI
• Random Leads
Analysis Resource Center
• Text Files:– Site Stats– Threshold Documents
• Graphics (XML):– Scatter Plots– Trend Plots– Heidke Skill Maps
L3MTO Coefficients for ALAMOGORDO, NM CPC Climate Division #COOP Station ID #290199CWA: EPZ Season Mean Median StDev Slope Intercept R* Lower Tercile Upper TercileFMA 54.0 53.8 1.94 0.953 5.17 0.90 53.2 54.9MAM 61.5 61.5 1.98 0.887 9.85 0.91 60.6 62.4AMJ 69.9 70.2 1.85 0.858 12.92 0.91 69.1 70.8MJJ 76.3 76.2 1.52 0.906 9.95 0.91 75.7 77.0JJA 78.9 78.8 1.39 1.049 -1.40 0.94 78.3 79.5JAS 76.7 76.7 1.58 1.099 -5.58 0.93 76.0 77.4ASO 70.6 70.3 1.38 1.033 -0.29 0.89 70.0 71.2SON 61.3 61.2 1.51 0.994 2.44 0.88 60.7 62.0OND 51.4 51.3 1.53 0.986 2.66 0.93 50.7 52.1NDJ 44.7 44.4 1.74 0.994 1.86 0.93 44.0 45.5DJF 43.9 43.5 1.66 0.954 3.61 0.95 43.1 44.6JFM 47.7 47.3 1.77 0.943 4.65 0.90 46.9 48.5
CPC Forecast Sensitivity Test for ALAMOGORDO CD # 102
Season: FMA
A significant* BELOW NORMAL category outlook at the station is producedby 40% (or greater) BELOW NORMAL category of CPC outlooks in Climate Division 102
A significant* ABOVE NORMAL category outlook at the station is producedby 39% (or greater) ABOVE NORMAL category of CPC outlooks in Climate Division 102
Season: MAM
The outlook at this station during this season will always produce Climatology(equal chances, 33% for all three categories). This is reflective of a Heidke skillscore of zero or less. Any scores in this range will automatically produce equalchances at the station. Please see the ARC site skill scores for more information.
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Support
• HI L3MTO will remain operational until CPC/CSD/Web Team are satisfied
• Run L3MTO in parallel in HI for as long as necessary (and run comparison tests)
• Annette will continue to support & trouble shoot as needed for undetermined length of time??
• L3MTO Technical Team (CSD, Regions & WFO FPs) will remain as support for duration of product lifetime
• Web support is always available: John Bollinger’s group has superb service & support
Proposed Timeline ???
• Telecons:– Preliminary: Feb. 7– Technical: 2 or 3 in March– Administrative: Beginning/Mid March (decision on transfer date)
• Actions:– Feb/March: Annette & CPC Tech Team look at scripts &
determine needs and additional work– End of March???: Annette travel to CD for implementation &
training (Bollinger will attend towards the end of the week)
• Goal (August)– CPC is running operational forecast– CPC has produced annual data– CPC is self-sufficient???