Download - L02 Evolution of Technology
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LECTURE L02EVOLUTION OF TECHNOLOGY
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Agenda
Evolution of Technology The 7th Kingdom What is Technology Product Development The Long View
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Reading
Evolution of Technology The 7th Kingdom What is Technology Product Development The Long View
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The Next Wave will be built previous waves
Mainframe
1947
Minicomputer
1965
PC
1981 1995
Internet Smartphone
2007
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Evolution of technology is closelylinked with the evolution of mankind
Evolution
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Use of technology have been with mankindfor millions of years
Evolution
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Charles Darwin publishedOn The Origin of Species in 1852
Evolution
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Evolutionary ProcessEach generationbreeds the next generation, becomes and input for the next
Natural selection
Survival of the fittest
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Samuel Butler published 1859 a letter to the editor of the Press in New Zealand, called “Darwin among the Machines”
Kingdom of the machines
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Evolutionary Process
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Kevin Kelly: The Seventh Kingdom
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Kevin Kelly’s The 7th Kingdom
There are many similarities with evolution of biology and technology
Both follow evolutionary process
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Is technology something new?
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Is this technology?Common object that existed when we were born
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All technology was once newIs this technology?
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You can only see the evolution by looking back
All technology was once new
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?And you should know it will change in the future — so never dismiss a new primitive and clunky new gadget
All technology was once new
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All technology was once new
What about this device?
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Technology invented by Johannes Gutenberg in the 15th century
Lived in Germany
Was blacksmith, goldsmith and merchant
The Printing Press
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Gutenberg’s printing press
Movable type made of wood, pressed with ink using a screw
Printed 42 lines
The Printing Press
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Technology in the 15th century
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Bartolomeo Cristofori 1655-1731
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Piano
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Nocturne Op. 9 No 2
Frédéric Chopin1810-1849
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Johann Sebastian Bach would only in 1747 approve the piano
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We think it is something new
New technology is emotional
Technology
Old technology is taken for granted
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Techne is greek for art or skillLogos is greek for word, speech
TechnologyFirst used by Aristotle
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TechnologyThe word “technology” was used in 1801 by Johann Beckmann (1739-1811), a German scientific author and teacher
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The Effects of Good Government, a fresco in the City Hall of Siena by Ambrogio Lorenzetti, 1338.
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Kevin Kelly: What Technology Wants
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Definition of Technology
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Process by which an organisation transforms labor, capital, material, and information into products and services of greater values
Technology
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The value you get out of a product for which you have paid some cost
Product Performance
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31977 Apple II $1,298 4.000 bytes memory Motorola 6502 1MHz
2007 iMac 17-inch $1,199 1.000.000.000 bytes memory Intel 2.0GHz
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2000 2010
iMac iPhone
iMac G3Mac OS 9.0.4
500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB MemoryScreen - 786K pixels
Storage - 30GB Hard Drive
iPhone 4iOS 4.0
1 Ghz ARM A4 CPU, 512MB MemoryScreen - 614K pixels
Storage - 32GB Flash Drive
THE SECOND HALF OF THE CHESSBOARD
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Innovation
The change in the technology
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Product Development
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Mainframe
1947
Minicomputer
1965
PC
1981 1995
Internet Smartphone
2007
Waves of technologies
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Product DevelopmentProducts that are built based on older technologies follow a specific path from initial idea to a mature stable product
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The S-curveImprovements in performance varies throughout the life of the technology
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Problem is that people inthe R&D phase maynot be right in the growth phase
The S-curve
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Exponential trends can be composed of a sequence of S-curves where each curve is faster
The S-curve
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Exponential trends can be composed of a sequence of S-curves where each curve is faster
The S-curve
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Technology Life CycleDescribes the commercial gain of a product through the expense of research and development phase, and the financial return during its "vital life"
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In the early daysThe innovators and technologyenthusiasts drive the marketThey demand technologySmall percentage of the market
In the later daysThe pragmatists and conservativesdominate; they want solutions andconvenienceThe big market
Technology Life Cycle
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The Long View of Technology
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200018001600140012001000800
Com
plex
ity o
f Tec
hnol
ogy
Time
EXPONENTIALGROWTH
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http://www.bordalierinstitute.com/images/brainEvolution.jpg
Evolution of the human brain
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Evolutionary Process
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200018001600140012001000800
Com
plex
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ogy
Time
With all the technology in the last 200 years, how was life before that?
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What about in the year 79?
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Pompeii
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The oldest body in history
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Life was Local and Liniar
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Until it became Global and Exponetial
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L03 Exponential WorldNext
Please note: Video Lecture — No class due to travelling