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LAURIE JOHNSON CONSULTINGUrban Planning ● Risk Management ● Disaster Recovery
Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research
Planning for Post-Earthquake Recovery: San Francisco’s Resilient City Efforts
Bay Area Earthquake AllianceApril 19, 2011
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Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research
Presentation Overview
● Pre-disaster Planning for Post-Disaster Recovery ● SPUR Resilient City Initiative● City of San Francisco’s Recovery and Resilient SF
Initiatives● Great East Japan Earthquake, Implications for Post-
Disaster Recovery Planning in the Bay Area
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Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research
Value of Planning for RecoveryBefore A Disaster● Anticipate, prevent, or minimize loss of life and property
– Identify natural and human-caused risks, both short- and long-term– Promote methods for risk reduction– Bring community along regarding mitigation investments and their post-event
value in loss reduction
● Reduce scope and intensity of recovery and reconstruction tasks– Provide information on potential scenarios for recovery and rebuilding– Prepare pre-event plans and ordinances
● Increase community resilience, i.e., enhance capability to withstand and rebound from future disasters
– Call attention to need for developing disaster-resilience
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THE RESILIENT CITY
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• Promotes good planning and governance in San Francisco Bay Area through research, education and advocacy
• History began in 1910, working to improve housing conditions after the 1906 earthquake
• Membership: >4,500• Staff: 20
– Gabriel Metcalf, Executive Director– Sarah Karlinsky, Deputy Director
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SPUR’s Resilient City Initiative – One of 8 Policy Areas
• Community Planning• Regional Planning• Disaster Planning• Housing• Transportation• Sustainable Development• Economic Development • Good Government
Before the Disaster – Seismic Mitigation Task ForceShelter-in-Place Task Force *C Poland, Chair
After the Disaster – Rebuilding Task Force J McCain, ChairL Johnson, Recovery Governance Chair
Disaster Response - Emergency Preparedness Task ForceD Morten, Chair
*USGS Northern California External Grant Award
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Before the DisasterDefining what San Francisco needs from its seismic mitigation policies
www.spur.org
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Seismic Mitigation Task Force Established in 2006
• Define concept of resilience• Establish performance goals for the “expected”
earthquake• Define transparent performance measures that help
reach the performance goals• Recommended next steps for San Francisco’s:
– New buildings– Existing buildings, and – Lifelines
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Defined Seismic Resilience, as the Ability of San Francisco to:
• Contain the effects of earthquakes• Carry out recovery activities in ways that
minimize social disruption• Rebuild in ways that mitigate the effects of
future earthquakes
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Transparent Hazard Definitions for San Francisco
Category Hazard Level
Routine Likely to occur routinely in (M = 5.0) San Francisco
Expected Reasonably expected to occur (M= 7.2) once during the useful life of a structure or system
Extreme Reasonably be expected to occur (M=7.9)
on a nearby fault
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Phase Time Frame Condition of the Built Environment
I 1 to 7 days Initial response and staging for reconstruction
II 7 to 60 days Workforce housing restored – ongoing social needs met
III 2 to 36 months Long term reconstruction
Lifelines and workforce are the key elements
Performance Goals for the “Expected” Earthquake
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Transparent Performance Measures for Buildings
Category Performance Standard
Category A Safe and operational: Essential facilities such as hospitals and emergency operations centers
Category B Safe and usable during repair: “shelter-in-place” residential buildings and buildings needed for emergency operations
Category C Safe and usable after repair: current minimum design standard for new, non-essential buildings
Category D Safe but not repairable: below standard for new, non-essential buildings. Often used as a performance goal for existing buildings undergoing voluntary rehabilitation
Category E Unsafe – partial or complete collapse: damage that will lead to casualties in the event of the “expected” earthquake - the killer buildings
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Phase Time Frame Focus of Attention
I 1 to 7 days Initial response and staging for reconstruction
EOC’s,
City Buildings,
Hospitals,
Police and Fire Stations,
Shelters
San Francisco General Hospital
Building Category A: “Safe and Operational”
Lifeline Category I: “Resume essential service in 4 hours”
Target States of Recovery for Buildings and Infrastructure
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Phase Time Frame Focus of Attention
II 7 to 30 days Housing restored – ongoing social needs met
Residential structures,
Schools,
Community retail centers,
Doctors offices
Building Category B: “Safe and usable while being repaired”
Lifeline Category II: “Resume 100% workforce service within 4 months”
Target States of Recovery for Buildings and Infrastructure
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Phase Time Frame Focus of Attention
III 2 to 36 months Long term reconstruction
Industrial Buildings
Commercial buildings
Historic buildings
Building Category C: “Safe and usable after repair”
Lifeline Category III: “Resume 100% commercial service within 36 months”
Target States of Recovery for Buildings and Infrastructure
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Target States of Recovery for Buildings and Infrastructure
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Policies for Achieving Resilience:Existing Buildings
Recommendation 1: Mandated retrofit of soft-story, wood-frame, multifamily housing.
Recommendation 2Mandated retrofit or redundancy for designated shelters.
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Policies for Achieving Resilience:Existing Buildings
Recommendation 3A mitigation program for essential city services.
Recommendation 4A mitigation program for critical non-ductile concrete buildings.
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Recommendation 5Mandated and triggered retrofit of gas lines and gas-fired equipment.
Recommendation 6Assessment of the unreinforced masonry program.
Policies for Achieving Resilience:Existing Buildings
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Recommendation 1Establish seismic performance targets (and incentives) for new buildings that allow the city to recover quickly from the inevitable strong earthquake.
Recommendation 2Make near-term improvements to the San Francisco Building Code to provide cost-effective improvements in seismic performance.
Recommendation 3Declare the expected performance that will be achieved by the current building code, and develop options for quantifiably improved seismic performance.
Recommendation 4Develop strong incentives and a clear communication of seismic performance expectations that encourage building to higher seismic standards.
Policies for Achieving Resilience:New Buildings
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Recommendation 1Establish a “Lifelines Council” to provide a mechanism for comprehensive planning
Recommendation 2Conduct a seismic performance audit of lifelines in San Francisco and establish priorities for lifeline mitigation.
Recommendation 3Require improvements to City-owned and regulated systems necessary to meet performance goals and develop a funding program to make those improvements happen.
Recommendation 4Require the design and implementation of improvements to the gas distribution system that reduce the risk of post-earthquake ignitions.
Recommendation 5Establish partnerships with regional, state, and private sector entities to address multi-jurisdictional and regional systems.
Policies for Achieving Resilience:Lifelines
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SPUR Shelter-in-Place Task Force (USGS NEHRP funded, Initiated Jan 2011)
If a Resilient City is one where 95% of residents can shelter-in-place after a disaster, how do we achieve that goal?
• Task One: Validate the need to achieve 95% shelter-in-place and the best way to achieve it citywide
• Task Two: Define the role and extent of post earthquake self-inspection
• Task Three: Define a shelter in place standard using available documents such as ASCE 31 and 41 and 7. Establish the proper planning case for the expected earthquake scenario and determine the impact of geologic hazards in the post-disaster period.
• Task Four: Develop Policy Recommendations
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Shelter-in-Place: Project Objectives
• Bring together diverse stakeholders in a series of collaborative and educational workshops to bring about building code and policy changes necessary to properly address shelter-in-place.
• Determine what geologic hazard information, design guidelines, building code changes and new policies are needed to reach the determined shelter-in-place standard.
• Publish findings in our monthly publication the Urbanist, with a distribution of 4,500.
• Disseminate seismic mitigation information to groups that are not typical members of the earthquake professional community, including community and policy leaders in San Francisco and throughout the Bay Area.
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After the DisasterRebuilding our city after a major event
www.spur.org
1. Transportation2. Governance3. Planning4. Housing
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Impacts of the Extreme Earthquake on our Transportation System
• Transit lines will collapse and rail tracks broken.• Transbay road, rail and public transit links will be
disrupted.• Highways and surface streets will be closed by bridge
collapses, failure of pavement and structures, and the accumulation of debris.
• Traction power system failures will immobilize electric transit modes (BART, MUNI).
• Maintenance facilities will be damaged.• Airport runways will be rendered unusable.
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Source: California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology, final edition February 2003
http://gmw.consrv.ca.gov/shmp/download/pdf/ozn_sf.pdf
Many of our transportation lines cross liquefaction zones
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Corridor Failure Analysis
East Bay: Transbay Tube, Bay Bridge
North Bay: Golden Gate Bridge, Ferries
South Bay: BART, Caltrain, I - 280, US - 101
Intra San Francisco – Roads and Rail
Ferries only
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East Bay
Scenario A: Bay Bridge Intact, Transbay Tube Closed
Scenario B: Transbay Tube Intact, Bay Bridge Closed
Scenario C: Both Bay Bridge and Transbay Tube Closed
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EAST BAY: Before the Disaster Tool Kit
Action Item Responsible Agency
Create a plan to coordinate bus bridges across the Bay Bridge
AC Transit, BART and Caltrans
Create permanent bus-only lanes on approaching freeways to the Bay Bridge (I-80, I-580, and I-880).
Caltrans and AC Transit
Develop a Restricted Vehicle Plan. Caltrans
Develop contraflow bus system. Caltrans and MTC/BATA
Identify emergency park-and-ride locations. MTC and local government
Develop emergency transit plans MTC, BART and AC Transit
Establish an emergency reserve bus fleet. AC Transit
Establish mutual aid agreements with other bus agencies.
AC Transit, MTC
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EAST BAY: Before the Disaster Tool Kit, continued
Action Item Responsible Agency
Complete BART system improvements. BART
Ensure ferry vessel/terminal compatibility. WETA
Identify critical docks and piers throughout the Bay Area that could be used as ferry terminals
WETA
Develop a strategy for critical goods movement.
WETA
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EAST BAY: Managing the Mid-term
Action Item Responsible Agency
Implement Bay Bridge restricted vehicle plan Caltrans, MTC
Implement bus bridging in the event of a BART shutdown.
Caltrans, MTC
Create contraflow bus lanes on Bay Bridge. Caltrans, AC Transit, MTC
Create bus only lanes on Bay Bridge and on approaching freeways.
Caltrans, AC Transit, MTC
Require all BART cars running into and out of San Francisco to be at full capacity
BART
Implement mutual aid actions. MTC, AC Transit
Utilize excursion boats to enhance ferry service.
WETA
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EAST BAY: Long Term Projects that Create Critical Redundancy
Action Item Responsible Agencies
Build a second Transbay Tube.Extend Caltrain and High Speed Rail under the Bay to Oakland.
BART to lead in consultation with Muni, AC Transit and cities that would receive new BART service.
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SPUR’s Resilient City Initiative – City of San Francisco Impacts and Linkages
Before the Disaster – Seismic Mitigation Task ForceShelter-in-Place Task Force C Poland, Chair
After the Disaster – Rebuilding Task Force J McCain, ChairL Johnson, Recovery Governance Chair
• Input to San Francisco’s CAPSS -- Community Action Plan for Seismic Safety CAPSS
• Proposition A (Nov 2010; 63% voter-approved but not 66%) – Bond measure to retrofit affordable ‘soft story’ housing
• City of San Francisco established “Lifelines Council” and launching interdependency study
• Input to draft safety element and revisions to City’s hazard mitigation plan (both underway)
• City of San Francisco post-disaster recovery governance project
• City of San Francisco interim housing policy and planning project
Disaster Response - Emergency Preparedness Task ForceD Morten, Chair
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General Services AgencyController’s Office
Department of Emergency ManagementHarvard University Kennedy School of Government
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“Identify and implement projects, programs, legislation or other activities, either existing, in progress or proposed,
that meet the objectives of advance planning and accelerated post-disaster
recovery.”
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Governance, Legislation and Intergovernmental Coordination
Emergency Planning and Response Finance, Budget and Risk Management Citywide Planning Community Infrastructure and Lifelines Environmental Impact and Restoration Housing and Shelter Economic and Community Development Community Relations and Communications
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Lifelines Council ◦ Recommended by the SPUR Resilient City Initiative◦ Initiated October 2009: Four meetings to date◦ 25+ local and regional lifelines agencies:
communications, water, power, transportation, debris management and emergency response. adding Financial Institutions
◦ Lifelines Council case studies: SFPUC-Water, PG&E, AT&T, Transportation
◦ Launching interdependency study 2011/12 Understand inter-system dependencies to enhance planning,
restoration and reconstruction
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Post-Disaster Financial Management and Cost Recovery Program◦ Citywide Finance and Admin Training◦ FEMA Cost Recovery Training◦ Emergency Reserve Funds ◦ Emergency Access Policies◦ Enterprise Risk Management ISO 31000 Program◦ Advocate for Stafford Act Reform
Governance Project◦ Critical, foundational decision making processes◦ Long-term recovery planning framework
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Community Resilience and Capacity Building◦ Readiness and Recovery Workgroup◦ Resilient Communities Initiative
(Polk/OMI/North Beach)
◦ Neighborhood Empowerment Network (NEN) Launched empowersf.org and NEN Social Media
Campaign (Facebook/Twitter) NEN University Initiative (USF/SFSU/UCSF) Three Capacity Building Summits for over 1000
Community Leaders Two Annual NEN Awards
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Vision – establish a clear, international best practice guideline for the definition of resilience.
Management Plan – a comprehensive strategic plan that serves as the citywide resiliency roadmap
Network – people, relationships and resources that support resilience.
Community Touch Points and Tools –branded resources to promote concepts and support citizens.
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All Hazards Strategic Plan Update Community Resilience Programs CAPSS Projects Housing Project Governance Project Community Safety Element Update Cost Recovery, Finance and Risk Management
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Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research
3.11: Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami
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Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research
Early Lessons from Japan
● A country with an excellent track record of preparedness, had not anticipated the magnitude of the earthquake and tsunami. – Uncertainty about future risk for planning implementing
rebuilding, and risk management assumptions elsewhere
● Cascading effects indicative of a ‘super-cat’ leading to a protracted response period, escalating losses, far-field effects, and impeded transition to recovery
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Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research
Early Lessons from Japan
● Loss of land (350 sq km/ 135 sq mi), and tremendous human and economic losses– Long-distance evacuations will disrupt communities– Relocations and consolidation of service provision likely in order to
rebuild given constraints– Changes in legislation, policy, engineering/construction, and financing
needed
● National “Committee for Recovery Framework” established April 11 will influence recovery authority and responsibilities at all levels of government– Develop national reconstruction strategies, relocation strategies, and
promote “ECO city” construction
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Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research
Planning for the Next Large Bay Area Earthquake● Are we planning for the right hazards/risks (i.e. expected vs.
extreme, and cascading effects)? ● Is our planning toolkit up-to-date and appropriate to deal with
post-disaster recovery issues and demands?– General plans/safety elements, zoning, hazard mitigation plans,
building repair and retrofit standards, lifeline performance standards
● What resources (human, financial, information) do we need to deal with the likely post-disaster needs (public and private)?
● Are our governing structures and institutional capacities adequate to manage different aspects of recovery?
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Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research
Copies/Questions:[email protected]@[email protected]
Thank You!
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Target States of Recovery for Buildings and Infrastructure
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Target States of Recovery for Buildings and Infrastructure
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South Bay
Scenario A: Caltrain and BART intact, both freeways disrupted
Scenario B: One or both freeways remain intact, BART and Caltrain disrupted
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North Bay
Scenario A: Ferry terminals intact, Golden Gate Bridge Closed
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Intra San Francisco
Scenario A: Market Street Subway Closed
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Ferries
Scenario A: Only Ferries Functioning
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Non Corridor Specific Recommendations1. Do a “gap analysis” to determine which agencies
should lead the recovery of transportation systems after a disaster
2. Complete a performance audit of our existing transportation infrastructure
3. Engage in hazard mitigation strategies that shore up our existing transit infrastructure and add redundancy on our core transportation lines