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Dan Finnigan President and CEO Jobvite, Inc.
Senior Vice President General Manger of Yahoo! HotJobs.
President and CEO Knight Ridder Digital & Careerbuilder Director
President and CEO SBC/AT&T Interactive (now YP.com)
New Business Development Los Angeles Times
Entrepreneur in Residence Benchmark Capital
Professor Farber Freelance Reporter
MBA
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David Goldberg 1967-2015 “David Goldberg embodied the definition of a real leader - someone who was always looking for ways to empower others. He was generous and kind with everybody, and cared less about the limelight than making sure that the people he worked with and loved succeeded in whatever they did. His skills as an entrepreneur created opportunity for many; his love for his family was a joy to behold, and his example as a husband and father was something we could all learn from. We're heartbroken by him leaving us far too soon - but we celebrate a remarkable legacy.” ~ Barack Obama
“Does Silicon Valley Have a Soul? It Did — As Well as a Heart — In Dave Goldberg.” ~ Kara Swisher <re/code>
“This is the biggest loss since Steve Jobs.” ~ Marc Benioff
Agenda
• Job Market Update
• Just-In-Time Economy
• Tectonic Technology Trends Impacting the Job Market
• Talent Has New Standards
• The Talent Funnel
01/07
4%
6%
8%
10%
01/08 01/09 01/10 01/11 01/12 01/13 01/14 01/15
Job growth has improved leaps and bounds since the downturn of 2007
Unemployment rates by education
Less than HS
4 year college degree
Overall unemployment rate
01/08
10%
15%
20%
5%
01/09 01/10 01/11 01/12 01/13 01/14 01/15 01/07
The U.S. has returned as a global force: GDP outpaces other countries
Change in Rate of GDP growth
Jan-10
1
0
-2
-3
Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Sep-14
-1
2
3
4
5
United States China Europe
The U.S. market is pulling ahead towards energy independence
Total energy production and consumption projection
1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040 0
60
70
80
90
100
110 History Projections 2013
~ ~
Consumption
Production
Welcome to the fast-paced, ever-changing just-in-time economy Job openings and employment seasonally adjusted, in thousands
2,500
3,500
4,000
Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 Jan 07 Jan 06 Jan 05
3,000
2,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15
130,000
134,000
136,000
132,000
128,000
138,000
140,000
142,000
Job openings Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, April 7, 2015. Note: Shaded area represents recession as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Recession
Which has contributed to the rise of the disposable worker
Breakdown of GPD decline during last five recessions
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; McKinsey Global Institute
-0.65 -0.53 -0.45 -0.27 -0.70
2007-2009 2001 1990-1991 1981-1982 1973-1975
Employment
Productivity
In a just-in-time economy layoffs happen as fast as hires
Job cuts in the tech sector rose 77% in 2014
*Source: Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/on-leadership/wp/2015/01/28/the-biggest-mass-layoffs-of-the-past-two-decades/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/JTS00000000LDR
cut 18,000+ employees in 2014
cut 16,000 employees in 2014
cut 6,000 employees in 2014
cut 2,000 employees in 2014
Source: Challenger, Grey, and Christmas, Inc., http://www.challengergray.com/press/press-releases/2014-year-end-ceo-report-107-ceo-exits-december-highest-yearly-total-2008
Leadership comes and goes in the blink of an eye 2014 saw the largest number of CEO changes since 2008
Average tenure of a departing S&P 500 company CEO has decreased in recent from roughly 10 years in 2000 to 8.1 years in 2012 Ideal tenure for a CEO is 4.8 years
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100
Number of CEO Changes
?
Source: ERE, hEp://www.ere.net/2015/01/26/employers-‐forecast-‐to-‐increase-‐use-‐of-‐temp-‐agencies-‐by-‐10-‐5/
Source: InsPtute for Study of Labor, hEp://Rp.iza.org/dp5386.pdf
And in this just-in-time economy, “talent acquisition” is an oxymoron
46% of employers will add
temp and contract workers in 2015
+10% Increase in temp
and contract hiring over last year
135,000 new temp workers
in Q1 of 2015
The working age population is shrinking driving a tightening of the market supply
Source: Deloitte Research, UN Population Division (http://esa.un.org/unpp/)
demographics (%) 200
100
0
-50 Mexico Brazil India China South
Korea Australia Canada US Netherlands Spain France UK Russia Italy Japan Germany
1970 - 2010 2010 - 2050
PROBLEM 1: SHRINKING
WORKFORCE
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Less than High School 11% High School 8% Some College 11% Associate Degree 18% Bachelor’s Degree 12% Master’s Degree 18% Doctoral / Professional Degree 16%
Jobs in the future require education PROBLEM 2: EDUCATION
% change employment 2012- 2022
Looking ahead, companies will face stiff competition for top talent
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/2014/spring/art01.pdf
2012
2022
Operations research analysts
73,200
92,700
26.64%
Statisticians
27,600
34,900
26.45%
24,600
Biomedical engineers
19,400
26.80%
Actuaries
24,300
30,600
25.93%
Petroleum engineers
38,500
48,400
25.71% % Increase
Source: Brookings InsPtute, hEp://www.brookings.edu/research/interacPves/2014/job-‐vacancies-‐and-‐stem-‐skills#/M10420
There is already a severe shortage for skilled talent. That means companies face stiff competition
STEM vacancies take 2x as long to fill
STEM ads last 50 days
4 million job vacancies in computer science
Source: The White House: https://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/technology/techhire
Obama’s tech training initiative
Immigration reform
Policies are challenging the status quo of the American economy and the job market
Welcome to the reality of the real-time economy where technologies are redefining the
very nature of modern work
Transforming companies, industries and the nature of work Social Big Data
Applying Algorithm…
IoT Mobile
"Software substitution, whether it's for drivers or waiters or nurses … it's progressing. ... Technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of skill set. ... 20 years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower. I don’t think people have that in their mental model.” Bill Gates, May 2014
Source: Henry Siu and Nir Jaimovich for Third Way – WSJ.com
Jan 68
Jan 70
Jan 72
Jan 74
Jan 76
Jan 78
Jan 80
Jan 82
Jan 84
Jan 86
Jan 88
Jan 90
Jan 92
Jan 94
Jan 96
Jan 98
Jan 00
Jan 02
Jan 04
Jan 06
Jan 08
Jan 10
Jan 12
Jan 14
35%
33%
31%
29%
27%
25%
Recession
It’s a two-tiered labor market. For many, routine jobs are being eliminated Share of the population age 16 and over employed in jobs that involve primarily routine tasks
doctoral degree professional degree
master´s degree bachelor´s degree associate´s degree
some college, no degree high school diploma
less than a high school diploma
all workers 5.4% all workers $839
unemployment rate in 2014 (%)
2.1
1.9 2.8
3.5
4.5 6.0
6.0
9.0
median weekly earnings in 2014 ($)
1,591
1,639
1,326
1,101
792 741
668
488
PROBLEM 3: SHORTAGE OF
SKILLED LABOR
“Net net”: We have a severe shortage in the skilled labor market resulting in increased competition for new hires education pays
Note: Data are for persons age 25 and over. Earnings are for full-time wage and salary workers Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
On average, millennials will hold 15-20 jobs in their career
Source: www.fastcompany.com/magazine/162/average-time-spent-at-job-4-years
6.2 Number of jobs the average millennial
holds between 18 and 26
3 yrs Californians and millennials
4.6 yrs in the U.S.
18 mo startup engineer
PROBLEM 4: EMERGENCE
OF JOB SHOPPERS
median tenure in current job:
Besides death and taxes…churn is the only guarantee
Source: Quartz, http://qz.com/359578/more-americans-are-quitting-their-jobs-and-thats-a-good-thing/ Source: 2015 Job Seeker Nation Survey, http://www.jobvite.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/jobvite_jobseeker_nation_2015.pdf
The U.S. quit rate as a percentage of the labor force 2.8% 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2
‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15
A new standard Employees are in
the driver’s seat Skilled workers have options.
What are you doing to compete?
61% Compensation
21% Company Culture
35% Growth Opportunities
38% Work/Life Balance
Source: http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/managing-tomorrows-people/future-of-work/assets/reshaping-the-workplace.pdf
59% Modern Technology
Coursera has partnered with companies to create employee
training and development programs.
A new standard
Source: Forbes: http://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeanders/2014/08/20/courseras-new-goal-teaching-at-firms-such-as-mastercard/
Learning is a lifelong pursuit
LinkedIn acquired Lynda.com
Stan Slap Brand Strategist and CEO of Slap
You don't have to fear your own company being perceived as human. You want it. People don't trust companies; they trust people ”
“
A new standard Values are essential
”Millenials believe the business ethos has too short-term a focus. Beyond that, millennials believe companies should spend less time on short-time roles and more time on broadly building contributions to society, more time focusing on their people,” Deloitte Global Chairman Steve Almond
Continuously finding the best people
you possibly can for today – and tomorrow…
“You must build talent for the digital organization of 2020 NOW. Not just the digital technology organization, but the whole enterprise.”
Gartner Top 10 Strategic Predictions for 2015 and Beyond: Digital Business Is Driving 'Big Change' Published: 4 October 2014
Employment Brand
Sourcing
Candidate Experience
Candidate Selection
Insight
A never-ending recruiting pipeline is needed now for tomorrow!
Employment Brand
Sourcing
Candidate Experience
Candidate Selection
Insight
Candidate Selection
Candidate Centric
Employment Brand
Sourcing
Candidate Experience
Candidate Selection
Insight
Candidate Selection
Candidate Centric
HR FUNCTION OR PROCESS
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT MARGIN
TOTAL IMPROVEMENT
Recruiting 3.5x 2.0x 5.5
On-boarding and retention 2.5x 1.9x 4.4
Managing talent 2.2x 1.9x 4.4
Employer branding 2.4x 2.1x 4.3
Performance management and rewards 2.1x 2.0x 4.1
Developing leadership 2.1x 1.8x 3.9
Mastering HR process 1.8 1.8 3.6
Global people management and global expansion
1.8 1.7 3.5
Enchancing employee engagement 1.8 1.6 3.4
Providing shared services and outsourcing 1.6 1.7 3.3
Recruiting is the most critical HR function delivering 40% more profit growth than next HR function
Source: Boston Consulting Group, “Realizing the Value of People Management; From Capability to Profitability”, August 2, 2012
You & Jobvite are working hard…and it’s working!
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Millions of Candidate referrals
Visitors from 202 Countries
Growing Databases of Prospects and Job Seekers
Faster time to hire than the industry standard
to support you We are committed
every step of the way
Employment Brand
Sourcing
Candidate Experience
Candidate Selection
Insight