Download - Karrasch ESSD 09.04.13 2 Leena
Leena Karrasch
COAST – Center for Environment and Sustainability Research,
Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, Germany
Climate Adaptation in Coastal Regions The Case of Krummhörn
Content
1. Climate Adaptation in Coastal Regions – The Case Study of Krummhörn
2. Stakeholder Involvement in Integrative Planning and Assessment
Ahlhorn et al. (2010)
Ahlhorn et al. (2010)
• 12 million people live in the flood prone area of the southern North Sea region
• Climate change threatens the area:
- sea level rise
- changes in hydrological cycles
• Changes within the society:
- shifts in demographic distributions
- technical innovations
- economic incentives
• There is a need for sustainable and adaptive land use management strategies
Climate Adaptation in Coastal Areas
„Interactions between Land Management, Climate Change and Ecosystem Services“
Project Overview
• 10 Universities in Germany
• January ´11 – December ´15
• Northern Europe Coastline
• Area: 76 km²
Case Study Region – Northwest-German Coastal Lowlands
NL
Wesermarsch (GER)
Krummhörn (GER)
Protected by dykes Total dyke line length of Lower Saxony: 700 km
Ahlhorn et al. (2010)
Main dike
River
Water body
Border
Impacts of Climate Change
http://www.lbeg.niedersachsen.de
• Climate change leads to:
- sea level rise
- increasing wave and wind conditions
- 20 % less rain in summer (2070-2100)
- up to 50 % more precipitation in winter
(2070-2100)
Problems
• Flood events
• Increased pumping costs
• Salinization of groundwater
• Scarcity of resources
• Competing interests
http://www.entwaesserungsverband-emden.de/index.php?page=projekte_wassermanagement
Climate Adaption Scenarios
Four concrete, area defined scenarios focusing on climate adaptation and changing land management with different goals
1. Trend
2. Water Management
3. Carbon Sequestration
4. Stakeholder-based
1. Trend
• „Business as usual“
• Agriculture, dairy farming,
nature conservation
2. Water Management
• Establishment of freshwater polders
• Retention of freshwater
• Use of reeds for green energy
• Restriction of flooding
3. Carbon Sequestration
• Establishment of polders
• Active peat formation
• Restoration of former vegetation
4. Stakeholder-based
• Extensive participation of stakeholders that represent important sectors in the society (agriculture, coastal protection, water management, tourism, nature conservation, policy)
• Evaluation of the land management scenarios
• Assessment of stakeholder preferences
• Development of future land use strategies
The Ecosystem Service Approach
• Ecosystem services are defined as “the benefits people obtain from ecosystems” (MA 2003)
• Ecosystem service approach:
A framework for including the
concept of ecosystem services
into decision-making
http://www.metrovancouver.org/planning/development/ecologicalhealth/Pages/default.aspx
Ecosystem Services
• Each land use scenario focuses on the provsion of ecosystem services (ESS).
Ecosystem services
Project-led scenarios Stake-
holder
based Trend
Water
manage-
ment
Carbon
seques-
tration
Food production + - - ?
Green energy production using
reeds - + - ?
Flood prevention - + 0 ?
Carbon sequestration by peat
production from reeds - + ++ ?
Prevention of brackish
groundwater intrusion - + + ?
Perception of safety ? ? ? ?
Recreation - + + ?
Conservation of biodiversity + + - ?
Trade-Offs
Biomass production Dominant reeds
Biodiversity Butomus umbellatus in extensively used pastures
vs
Synergies
• Provisioning of green energy
• Shift from dairy farming to reed farming
Reeds at the Weser estuary yielding high biomass.
Polder Huntewiesen in Winter 2009: ice-skaters as an example for ESS recreation.
Response and Effect Chain
Drivers
Hydrological
scenario
Land use
scenario
Climate
scenario
Environment
Water supply
and aeration
Biomass
removal
Species
Plant species
abundances and
traits
Ecosystem
function / property
Standing Biomass
Species richness
Water cycle
Greenhous gas
emissions
Response and Effect Chain (continued)
Expert
assessment
WTP & risk
assessment
Assessments
of values
Ecosystem
function / property
Standing Biomass
Species richness
Water cycle
Greenhous gas
emissions
Assignments
of values
Direct costs from
public databases
Experiments
Red lists
Coastal
ecosystem service
Carbon sequestration
Food production
Green energy
Conservation of
biodiversity
Flood prevention
Identity
Summary
From Theory to Practice – Stakeholder Intergration in Participatory Planning and Assessment
• Scarcity of space and impacts of climate change are becoming major drivers of land use and adaption management today.
• Changes in land use affect peoples´ life (social impact) and the provision of ecosystem services
• Dilemma: maintenance of the status quo vs. necessary change processes to meet future
challenges. • Stakeholder collaboration: A process of interactive learning and empowerment –
stakeholders are working collectively towards a common goal.
• How to develop participatory and adaptive strategies for sustainable land use management including the ecosystem service approach and social impacts?
Methodology
• Participatory planning process, based on the concepts ecosystem service approach and social impact assessment
Participatory Planning
Human Well-being
Ecosystem Service
Approach
Ecosystem Services
Social Impacts
Social Impact
Assessment
Sustainable Development
Methodology – Process Scheme
Methodology – From Science Driven towards Stakeholder Driven Decision Support -
Methodology - Setting
Constitutive social impacts: essential parts of the planning process Indicative social impacts: serve as indicators, direct influence on ecosystem services
Category Social impact
Constitutive
Personal
Impacts
Attachment to place
Obligation to ancestors and traditions
Participation in decision-making
Constitutive
Development
Impacts
Need for adaption measures
Placement of new land use strategies
Competing land uses
Compliance with property rights and values
Indicative
Economic
Impacts
Security of income
Economic prosperity and resilience of the region
Maintenance of agricultural and grassland
Security of food and drinking water supply
Indicative
Climate Change
Impacts
Combat negative influences of increasing sea level, inland water levels, droughts, dike overtopping
Provision of safety
Indicative
Landscape
Impacts
Aesthetic quality, beauty of the landscape
Presence of tourists
Cultural-historical values
Indicative
Ecological
Impacts
Beauty of nature
Organic management, sustainable use of resources
Category Service
Provisioning
Services
Food production
Forage production
Green energy production
Freshwater retention for agricultural use
Regulating
Services
Prevention of saltwater intrusion
Salt marshes
Hazard regulation by water retention
Erosion control
Cultural
Services
Community identification and connection
Recreation, tourism
Supporting
Services
Biodiversity
Quality of soil
Reduction of greenhouse gases
Methodology – Categorization of Social Impacts and Ecosystem Services
Methodology - Profiling
Methodology – Integration of Ecosystem Services and Social Impacts
Results – Integration of Ecosystem Services and Social Impacts
Attachment to place
Effects of urbanisation
Kind of land use Habitats
Adaptation to climate change
Demand
Supply
Results - Examples
Ecosystem services
Indicative social impacts
Economic: Prosperity of
the region
Climate Change: Combat negative
influences
Landscape: Beauty of landscape
Ecological: Sustainable use of
resources
Supporting: Soil quality
Cultural: Community identification
Regulating: Hazard regulation
Provisioning: Food production
Conclusion
• The scientific background of the ecosystem service approach is not easy to communicate. The stressed social impacts lead to the ecosystem services by translating the stakeholders´ language into scientific approaches.
• The operationalization of the ecosystem service approach and social impact analysis shows that social demands and provision of ecosystem services are inherently connected.
• Stakeholder collaboration promotes social learning processes, consideration of different world-views and cooperation and agreements. The work on a common goal improves decision-making processes.
Conclusion
• Climte change is one major driver of land use and adaptation management today.
• Adaptive strategies are the basis for a sustainable land management.
• Together with experts and decision-maker of the region, concrete and action oriented adaptive strategies can be developed.
Thank you for your attention
For more information, please contact
http://www.coast.uni-oldenburg.de/
References
• Ahlhorn et al. (2010): Speichern statt pumpen. Abschlussbericht im Rahmen des F+E-Vorhabens "Biosphärenreservate als Modellregionen für Klimaschutz und Klimaanpassung". Herausgegeben von Bundesamt für Naturschutz (BfN) und Nationalpark- und Biosphärenreservatsverwaltung "Niedersächsisches Wattenmeer".
• MA – Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (Ed.), 2003. Ecosystems and Human Well-Being. A Framework for Assessment. Island Press, Washington, 245 pp.
• Vanclay, F., 2002. Conceptualising social impacts. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 22, 183-211.
• Figures:
• http://www.entwaesserungsverband-emden.de/index.php?page=projekte_wassermanagement
• http://www.lbeg.niedersachsen.de
• http://www.metrovancouver.org/planning/development/ecologicalhealth/Pages/default.aspx
Discussion
• Stakeholder involvement – right from the beginning – is an important step in informal decision-making processes.
> How can stakeholders be integrated in decision-making processes?
> There are different stakeholdergroups. How does a collaboration succeed?
• Climate change is one driver for adaption measures.
> What are other drivers?
> How can different adaption measures be interlinked in one region?