1
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-13.1
0.8
4.93.6 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.7 5.5 6.3 6.5
4.56.1 6.5 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
98 99 20 01 02 03 O4 O5 06 07 08 O9 10 11 12F Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011
GDP Growth
Indonesia has a strong economic profile
Source: Bank Indonesia
3
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Economic power is shifting
4.3%LATAM
6.5%Asia Pacific3.8%
East Europe
3.5%MEAP
1.7%
West
Europe
2.4%
North
America
Average annual GDP growth rates in
emerging markets from 2011 to 2016 is
50% higher than developed markets
Source: IMF Sept 2011, World Economic Outlook Report
4
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121 120
114 112
104
112109
101105 104
122
113117 117
108112
104101
105
99
IN SA ID PH CN BR TH MY AE HK
Q3 2011 Q4 2011
Base : All respondents n=31038
Indonesia remains the 3rd most optimistic nation
in the world
5
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12 12 914 16
10 8 5
14
58
60 6062 54 49
5454
5342
IN ID PH BR CN SA MY TH VN AE
%
Excellent Good
Base : All respondents n=31348
72% of Indonesians are confident in the local jobs
market for 2012
6
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20 1711
18 16 13 10 126 8
6365
69 5857
5859
5055 53
ID PH BR IN SA CO CN AE MY TH
%
Excellent Good
Base : All respondents n=31348
83% are optimistic about their personal finances
over the next year
7
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12
38
26
9
3 4 3 3 37
43
4741
46 40 36
42 38 3936 36
32
IN AU SA HK PH NO BR ID CO CH SE AE
%
Excellent Good
Base : All respondents n=31348
Indonesian Consumers think it‟s a good time to
spend on the things they want/need this year
8
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4192948,642.02
57,243.8663,587.50
77,715
95,219
129,329139,867
156,159
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010* 2011*
Sales Value in Billion (Rp)
FMCG Sales grew at 12% in 2011, first double digit
growth since 2008
Indonesia Total Grocery | Total 55 FMCG Categories | YTD 2011 vs. YA
+8%+5%
+21%
+15%+14%
+18%+14%
+12%
10
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2010 2010 2011
Metro Rest of Urban Rural
+9.8%
+5.1%
Indonesia by Areas | Value; Growth | Total FMCG 55 Categories
+14.2%
+10.4%
+13.5%
+9.2%
Highest growth in 2011 came from suburban areas
11
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FMCG still dominates the advertising
spending
46 47
3 3
11 10
7 84 44 49 8
17 17
2010 2011
OTHERS
CORPORATE, GOVERNMENT & POLITIC
RETAIL SERVICES
FINANCIAL SERVICES
AUTOMOTIVE
COMPUTER & TELECOMMUNICATION
SMOKING & ACCESSORIES
FMCG
Source: Nielsen, AIS, YTD Dec 2010 vs. YTD Dec 2011, All
Media, Based on 20 Nielsen’s sector values (Commercial Products
only),
12
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13
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Largest Middle Class
population in the world
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Half of Jabotabek‟s urban
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Upper
Middle
Lower
Monthly Expenditure(in ‘000 Rupiah)
2,001 and Over
1,000 – 2,000
Below 1,000
Monthly HH expenditure includes
food, electricity, petrol, telephone, school fee, and
other basic costs. Excludes;
cigarettes, entertainment (dining out, new
clothes, movies, etc), payment on credit
cards, installments on cars/motorcycles, house.
Same proportion nationally
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Fresh Food is their main concern,
it comprises 37% of their
monthly spending
FMCG
Fresh Food
Transport
Telecom Electricity
Entertainment
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+10%
They‟re spending more on
FMCG11.1
2.8
7.0
3.7 3.95.1
2.8 5.77 6.8 6.2
6.0
4.6
4.8
20
08
20
09
20
10
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar
10
Ap
r 1
0M
ay 1
0Ju
n 1
0Ju
l 10
Au
g 1
0Se
p 1
0O
ct 1
0N
ov
10
De
c 1
0Ja
n 1
1Fe
b 1
1M
ar 1
1A
pr
11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul 1
1A
ug
11
5%Inflation Rate
3,772
4,118
2010
2011
Annual HH Spend on FMCG
(in Rp. „000)
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Middle Class accounts for 44% of
FMCG spending
In 5 Cities + GJ Urban
47% 45% 44% 42%
41% 42% 42% 44%
12% 14% 15% 14%
3 Yr Ago 2 yr Ago Last Year This Year
Upper Class Middle Class Lower Class
20
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Total Food BeveragesPersonal
Care
Household
Care
All Buyers +10% +9% +13% +15% +8%
Upper +5% +4% +8% +6% +7%
Middle +17% +17% +18% +23% +10%
Lower +7% +2% +14% +23% +5%
Middle class spending is
increasing faster than other
classes…
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The growth is driven by increased
273
272
2010
2011
Frequency of Shopping
13,816
15,141
2010
2011
Spending per Trip
Spending per Trip
+5.2%
-0.7%
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Where are they spending more/less?
Vs. last
yearIce
Cream
Baby
Diapers
CologneFrozen
meat &
fish
Dishwashing
Liquid
Ice cream 1.6X more than
last year
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Mature Categories are stagnant
342,880
105,727
71,029
143,428
Instant Noodles Sweetened Condensed Milk
Stock Soup Biscuit
+0.3% +1.4% +2.4% +4.8%
25
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Secondary Categories are growing
32,241
104,746
24,035
46,158
98,000
12,286
31,597
Cheese Ice Cream Seasoning Flour Canned Meat Frozen Fish and Meat
Tomato Sauce Chilli Sauce
Lifestyle Convenience Condiment
25
+81% +76% +62% +26% +25% +20% +16%
26
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“I enjoy exploring several
different alternatives or brands
while shopping”
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Ice Cream:
Growth 32%!474
466
39
70
400 450 500 550
2010
2011
Existing Variants New Launch
# o
f n
ew
Va
ria
nt
/Fla
vo
r
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Single pack Ice Cream is
the growth driver
was
In home
consumption
now
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“I always check on prices and
the quality of the products
before I go shopping”
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46% of HHs have bought
Flavored Water
5.3%
More volume purchased on
PROMOTION (vs. last year)
31
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23.4%
Bread SpreadPrice-conscious people are reducing their consumption
in response to price increase
Price increased by
-23.2%
Weight per purchase decreased by
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32
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“Convenience is more
important than price”
58%
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Packaged Water:Healthier and more practical choice for drinks
+33%
+17%
Increase in middle class spend on
packaged water compared to last
year
Increase in gallon
purchases
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Frozen Meat & Fish:Practicality & fun for the kids?
Last Year This Year
28%
38%
Frozen Meat and Fish
penetration among the middle
class is increasing rapidly.
Middle class volume contribution
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4.5hours
TV/day, in
weekdays(watch TV yesterday)
Almost
2 hours
Radio/day(listen to radio yesterday)
Almost
1.5hours
Internet/day(internet user in P1W)
34minutes
Newspaper/
day, in
weekdays(read NPP yesterday)
How the middle class
spend their time on media
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Televisionis still their main family
entertainment
96% still watch TV.
TV Viewing remains stable
since 5 years ago
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Internet usage
among middle
class has
grown!
7% 8%11%
13%
16%
22%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Growth of internet
penetration among
middle class is driven
by younger age
groups (10-19 years
old.)
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72 million Middle Class
Indonesian cell phone users
Penetration of
Cellular among
Middle Class
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Status Of Emerging Media among the Middle Class
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Trying to get connected and
become Netizens
Of Middle Class have
Internet access
Access Internet
through their mobile
handset
78% of non-Internet users are waiting to get
connected. The barriers: adoption of sophisticated
devices and affordability.
43
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Key Take outs
Innovation
excites
consumers
Convenience
Is a driver for
growth
Value for money
Price still plays a
big role
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44
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45
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Consumer Confidence of New Zealanders
90 89
100 99 98 98 99 99
95 97 98
90 91
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Global
Asia Pacific
New Zealand
Australia
46
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Base : All respondents n=10179
One-third consumers in NZ feel good about job prospects
47
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Base : All respondents n=10179
Half of consumers in NZ feel confident with the
48
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Kadin Indonesia & NZTE Seminar
Base : All respondents n=10179
One-third believes that the year ahead is a good time
to purchase the things they need/want