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Shared & Divergent Histories Drive Future Dynamics of the Mongolian Plateau
GINGER R.H. ALLINGTON, WEI LI, JIQUAN CHEN, RANJEETJOHN, DANIEL G. BROWN
9th International Association for Landscape Ecology World CongressJuly 5-10, 2015 Portland, Oregon USA
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Mongolian Plateau: divergent systems
(Chen et al. 2015 BioScience)
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Modeling entire systems
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System dynamics models• Provide insight into a system's
structure• Because of feedback loops, it’s
often difficult to infer the behavior of a system from its causal structure.
• Can be used to simulate alternative scenarios of system under different initial or boundary conditions.
NPP
Livestock Biomass-
+
+
+
PROCESS NOT PRODUCT
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Xilingol model
Human Sector
Land Use
Sector
Environmental Sector
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Suhkbatar model
Human Sector
Land Use
Sector
Environmental Sector
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1: Increased Precipitation
2/3: End Environmental
Policies
4: No EnvPolicies / Decreased Urbanization
SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT - Xilingol
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1: Increased Urbanization & Industrialization 3: Increased
Privatization
2: Rural Infrastructure Development
SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT - Suhkbaatar
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SCENARIOSXILINGOL SUHKBAATAR
Baserun: Continuation of current
conditions.
Scenario 1: Increased precipitation.
Scenario 2: No grassland protection policies.
Scenario 3: No restrictions to crop expansion.
Scenario 4: “Worst Case”
Baserun: Continuation of current conditions.
Scenario 1: Increased urbanization/industrializationScenario 2: Enhanced mobility/ communal cooperation /rural infrastructure developmentScenario 3: Increased privatization of resources & services
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Model outputs and predictions-Xilingol
Baserun: Continuation of current conditions.
1: Increased precipitation.
2: No grassland protection policies.
3: No restrictions to crop expansion.
4: “Worst Case”
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Model outputs and predictions-SuhkbaatarBaserun: Continuation of current conditions.
1: Increased urbanization/industrialization2: Enhanced mobility/ communal cooperation /rural infrastructure development3: Increased privatization of resources & services
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Key factors influencing dynamics of the two systems
1. Urbanization2. Policies promoting protection and restoration of grasslands (IMAR)3. Policies limiting cropland expansion (IMAR)4. Policies promoting rural infrastructure that supports community cooperation and mobility (MG)
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KEY AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY IN MG MODEL:-Urbanization trends into the future -Impacts of CBRMs-Market Access -Absentee herders-Herd structure/composition-Categorical grassland classifications
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(Chen et al. 2015 BioScience)