![Page 1: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Future Crime
Professor Shane D JohnsonDawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 2: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Office for National Statistics
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
0.00
5000.00
10000.00
15000.00
20000.00
25000.00
Dec
81
Dec
87
Dec
93
Dec
97
Mar
02
Mar
04
Mar
06
Mar
08
Mar
10
Mar
12
Mar
14
Mar
16
Jun
18
Thou
sand
s of o
ffenc
esAll CSEW crime
Exc Fraud andComputer Misuse
Inc Fraud andComputer Misuse
![Page 3: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Office for National Statistics
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
0.00
5000.00
10000.00
15000.00
20000.00
25000.00
Dec
81
Dec
87
Dec
93
Dec
97
Mar
02
Mar
04
Mar
06
Mar
08
Mar
10
Mar
12
Mar
14
Mar
16
Jun
18
Thou
sand
s of o
ffenc
esAll CSEW crime
Exc Fraud andComputer Misuse
Inc Fraud andComputer Misuse
![Page 4: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 5: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
A classic Crime Harvest and Retrofit SolutionDawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 6: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
There were only two permutations!
+ = Crime opportunity
+ = No crime opportunity
![Page 7: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Future Crime
• How do we avoid crime harvests?
• There are no “future facts” Jouvenel (1967)
• Challenge of methods for futures….
– Horizon scanning– Delphi– Stated preferences– Penn testing– SRs
• Where to start?
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 8: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Addressing Online CSE on Social Media
Crime, place and the internet
The effects of cyber weapons
Smart Cities: Opportunities for crime prevention
Cybercrime risks to future street infrastructure
Guarding against Adversarial perturbation
Biocrime
Detecting emerging crime in
online markets
Horizon Scanning using Machine
Learning
Refugee flows and instability*
Current Research Themes
Terrorist financing and money laundering
Crime, place and the internet Cryptocurrency &
Fraud
Advanced materials to
combat crime
Recent and future trends in
counterfeit goods
Developing technologies
IoT and Crime
Refugee flows and instability*
Scoping projects
Longer projects
PhD projects
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
Ageing and online fraud
AI and Crime
Reducing domestic abuse with technology
![Page 9: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Consumer Internet of Things (IoT)
Source: Intel
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 10: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Consumer IoT
Race to market + No security regulation + Cost = ?
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 11: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Systematic Review of Crime Facilitated by IoT
Initial Search3506 Initial
Screen2708Full
Screen198 Coded114
Databases Searched: Web of Science, ProQuest, ACM Digital Library, IEEE Xplore Digital Library, and Scopus
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
Blythe, J. M., & Johnson, S. D. (2019). A systematic review of crime facilitated by the consumer Internet of Things. Security Journal, 1-29.
![Page 12: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Thematic Synthesis
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 13: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Methods of Attack
Method Description
Denial of Service (DoS) Services disrupted through > requests from single devicesDDoS DoS attacks from multiple sources (e.g. botnets)Malware Malicious s/ware to compromise device and change functionsMan-in-the-Middle Interception of data in transitPhysical attacks Attacker physically tampers with deviceData integrity Attacker compromises data — inserting, modifying, replay attackSpoofing Attacker masquerades as anotherSide channel Exploits seemingly non-sensitive info e.g. power usageUser impersonation Attacker impersonates user (e.g. social engineering attack)
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 14: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Methodology & Plausability
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 15: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Crimes/Harms
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 16: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 17: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Open Source Search
• News media published in two 60-day periods: – 20 January 2018 to 21 March 2018, and – 14 May to 13 August 2019
• NLP screening
• Google searches (same period, 99 articles)
Initial Search64k NLP
Screen1.6k FullScreen287
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 18: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Crimes/Harms
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 19: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Secure by Design
• Warning signs of a crime harvest
• Heterogeneity – can you tell if a device is secure before you buy it?
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 20: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Smart Cities
A city that uses information and communication technologies (ICTs) and all other technologies available to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of city services in order to save resources and improve citizens’ well-being
Ramaprasad et al. (2017)
Laufs, J., Borrion, H., and Bradford, B. (2020). Security and the smart city: A systematic review. Sustainable Cities and Society, 55
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 21: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Smart Cities
Laufs, J., Borrion, H., and Bradford, B. (2020). Security and the smart city: A systematic review. Sustainable Cities and Society, 55
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 22: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Laufs, J., Borrion, H., and Bradford, B. (2020). Security and the smart city: A systematic review. Sustainable Cities and Society, 55
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 23: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Smart Cities
Laufs, J., Borrion, H., and Bradford, B. (2020). Security and the smart city: A systematic review. Sustainable Cities and Society, 55
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 24: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Smart Cities
Laufs, J., Borrion, H., and Bradford, B. (2020). Security and the smart city: A systematic review. Sustainable Cities and Society, 55
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 25: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Smart Cities
Laufs, J., Borrion, H., and Bradford, B. (2020). Security and the smart city: A systematic review. Sustainable Cities and Society, 55
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 26: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Systematic Review – Systematic Approach?
• Crime/Security are often omitted from (Smart) city plans
• Needs a systematic approach - dependencies across (silo) systems and sectors
• Governance:– Who owns the data?– Balancing collective security and individual privacy?
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 27: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Artificial Intelligence
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 28: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Machines are learning to find concealed weapons in X-ray scansCOMPASS@CS_UCL
https://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21711016-artificial-intelligence-moves-security-scanning-machines-are-learning-find
http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21711000-week-how-optical-navigation-can-help-bomb-find-its-target-without-gps
Autonomous software
AI to prevent crime
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 29: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Adversarial Perturbations (speech to text)
Carlini, N., and Wagner, D. (2018). Audio Adversarial Examples: Targeted Attacks on Speech to Text. Deep Learning and Security Workshop.
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 30: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Google AI thinks rifle is a helicopter (Can you spot the difference?)Adversarial examples are easier to create than previously understood
MIT team reliably fooled Google’s Cloud Vision API, a machine learning algorithm used in the real world today.
http://www.labsix.org/physical-objects-that-fool-neural-nets/https://www.wired.com/story/researcher-fooled-a-google-ai-into-thinking-a-rifle-was-a-helicopter/
Defeat to AI
AI to prevent crime
AI to commit crime
Adversarial perturbations
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 31: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs)
https://forms.gle/9vD5hHHKNtc7y5p3A
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 32: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 33: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
AI and Crime
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 34: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 35: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Biotechnology
• Traditional biological systems are re-created or modified in novel ways for various application purposes
• CRISPR, Gene drives, DNA testing
• In 2018, £2.2bn was raised by biotech companies in the UK
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 36: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Synthetic Biology
• Biohacking - Athletes have historically abused steroids and growth hormones (Reardon & Creado, 2014)
• 23AndMe data sharing - informed consent?
• DNA encoded malware (Ney et al., 2017)
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 37: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
“Now that DNA sequencing, synthesis, manipulation, and storage are increasingly digitized, there are more ways than ever for nefarious agents both inside and outside of the community to compromise security.”
Peccoud et al 2017
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
![Page 38: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Addressing Online CSE on Social Media
Crime, place and the internet
The effects of cyber weapons
Smart Cities: Opportunities for crime prevention
Cybercrime risks to future street infrastructure
Guarding against Adversarial perturbation
Biocrime
Detecting emerging crime in
online markets
Horizon Scanning using Machine
Learning
Refugee flows and instability*
Current Research Themes
Terrorist financing and money laundering
Crime, place and the internet Cryptocurrency &
Fraud
Advanced materials to
combat crime
Recent and future trends in
counterfeit goods
Developing technologies
IoT and Crime
Refugee flows and instability*
Scoping projects
Longer projects
PhD projects
Dawes Centre for Future Crime at UCL
Ageing and online fraud
AI and Crime
Reducing domestic abuse with technology
![Page 39: Johnson Slides 2020 FINAL · Horizon Scanning using Machine Learning Refugee flows and instability* Current Research Themes Terrorist financing and money laundering Crime, place and](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050423/5f9205e8d2a8ac7cf9364d15/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
And finally
• Innovation-crime sequences
• Multidisciplinarity (AI, synbio, chemistry, sensors, cyber, ……)
• Multi-stakeholder (Gov, police, voluntary sector, industry, ……)