![Page 1: John P. Dunne, Charles Stock, Jasmin John Delworth, T. L ...cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/MAPP/Webinars/2014/12-17-13/dunne.pdf · 12/17/2013 · MAPP Seminar Dec 17, 2013 John P. Dunne,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042406/5f20808b1e58ca1d6540c006/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
MAPP Seminar Dec 17, 2013
John P. Dunne, Charles Stock, Jasmin John
With special appreciation of the climate model development in:
Delworth, T. L., A. Rosati, W. G. Anderson, A. Adcroft, V. Balaji, R. Benson, K. W. Dixon, S. M. Griffies, H.-C. Lee, R. C. Pacanowski,
G. A. Vecchi, A. T. Wittenberg, F. Zhang, and R. Zhang, 2012: Simulated climate and climate change in the GFDL CM2.5 high
resolution coupled climate model, J. Clim., 25, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00316.1
![Page 2: John P. Dunne, Charles Stock, Jasmin John Delworth, T. L ...cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/MAPP/Webinars/2014/12-17-13/dunne.pdf · 12/17/2013 · MAPP Seminar Dec 17, 2013 John P. Dunne,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042406/5f20808b1e58ca1d6540c006/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
MAPP Seminar Dec 17, 2013
Outline
• Eastern Boundary Currents (EBCs) under Climate Change
• The need for a hierarchy of model approaches
• Prototype ESM2.6 fidelity
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MAPP Seminar Dec 17, 2013
EBC ProducCvity and Water Quality
• Some of the world’s most producCve fisheries
• Low oxygen (hypoxia) – ObservaCons of fish and crab kills
• Low pH (natural acidificaCon) – ObservaCons of reduced oyster producCvity
• Anthropogenic acidificaCon and climate concerns – Anthropogenic CO2 (acidificaCon) increases
– Long term observed increase in hypoxia
2
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Dec 17, 2013 MAPP Seminar
Rela%ng large scale climate changes to EBCs
• Early GFDL Earth System Model (ESM2.1) with historical and SRES A2 forcing • Decreased NO3 in gyre, but increased NO3 in the California Current • While T and NO3 are nega%vely correlated seasonally and inter-‐annually, they are
posi%vely correlated under climate change
Rykaczewski and Dunne (2010; GRL)
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Dec 17, 2013 MAPP Seminar 4
Rykaczewski and Dunne (2010; GRL)
Rela%ng large-‐scale changes to the California Current
• Dominance of remote forcing on local California Current changes • Interplay of changes in atmospheric winds and heat fluxes, stra%fica%on,
ven%la%on, and watermass pathways modula%ng biogeochemical response
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MAPP Seminar Dec 17, 2013
… But are we using the right tool for the job?
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MAPP Seminar Dec 17, 2013
EBC AcidificaCon ObservaCons
Feely et al. (2008; Science)
Depth of Aragonite saturaCon
Intensified nutrient remineralizaCon and associated natural acidificaCon are coherent features all along the California Current EBC, but restricted to 10-‐100 km from the coast.
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MAPP Seminar Dec 17, 2013
EBC Modes of Variability
• Seasonal cycle driving pressure gradients and winds • Remote inter-‐annual forcings (ENSO, PDO, NPGO) • Weather (days to weeks) • Mesoscale eddies (100-‐150 days, 30-‐50km)
• Squirts, fronts and jets (e.g. topographic forcing) • Diurnal sea breeze (km scale)
… 1°models only capture 2 or 3 of these mechanisms
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MAPP Seminar Dec 17, 2013
Statement of the problem
• Current 1° ESMs do not represent: – The posiCon and variability of major current structures
– The scales of either coastal or curl-‐driven upwelling – Topographic and land-‐sea atmospheric interacCons – MechanisCc ecological interacCons
• At least 1/10° is necessary to simulate these scales
• Adding tracers is also computaConally expensive
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MAPP Seminar Dec 17, 2013
A hierarchy of Biogeochemical Tools
• CMIP5-‐generaCon GFDL Earth System Models: – Tracers of Ocean Phytoplankton with Allometric Zooplankton (TOPAZ) – 30
prognosCc tracers with extensive BGC but parameterized ecosystem (Dunne et al., 2005; 2007; 2010; 2013)
• Ecological Mechanisms for Living Marine Resource ApplicaCons – Carbon, Ocean Biogeochemistry and Lower Trophics (COBALT) – 33 prognosCc
tracers based on TOPAZ with extensive ecosystem but fixed N:P (Stock and Dunne 2010; Stock et al, 2013)
• But each tracer costs 10-‐25% to computaConal burden… – Biogeochemistry with Light, Nutrients and Gas (BLING) – Reduced version of
TOPAZ with 6 prognosCc tracers (Galbraith et al, 2012)
– Mini-‐BLING – Reduced version of BLING with only 3 prognosCc tracers: Dissolved Inorganic Carbon, Phosphate, and Oxygen
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MAPP Seminar Dec 17, 2013
Prototype COBALT-‐ESM2.6 29-‐year test
• 1/10° Ocean (MOM5) • 1/2° Atmosphere (AM2-‐Cube sphere) • Ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystems (COBALT) • Land ecosystems (LM3) • 15744 cores • ~5 model months day-‐1
• ~100 GB month-‐1
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Dec 17, 2013 MAPP Seminar
California SST and 0-‐50m Currents
Observa%ons/ reanalysis (AVHRR; ECCO)
ESM2.6 ESM2M
• Improved meridional structure • Removal of spurious recirculaCon
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Dec 17, 2013 MAPP Seminar
Humboldt SST and 0-‐50m Currents
ESM2.6 ESM2M
• Improved meridional structure • Removal of spurious recirculaCon
Observa%ons/ reanalysis (AVHRR; ECCO)
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Dec 17, 2013 MAPP Seminar
Canary SST and 0-‐50m Currents
ESM2.6 ESM2M
• Improved meridional structure • Removal of spurious recirculaCon
Observa%ons/ reanalysis (AVHRR; ECCO)
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Dec 17, 2013 MAPP Seminar
Benguela SST and 0-‐50m Currents
ESM2.6 ESM2M
• Improved meridional structure • Removal of spurious recirculaCon
Observa%ons/ reanalysis (AVHRR; ECCO)
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Dec 17, 2013 MAPP Seminar
Offshore SST in Obs, ESM2M, and ESM2.6
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Dec 17, 2013 MAPP Seminar
Offshore SST in ESM2M/ESM2.6 vs. Obs. Mod
el
Mod
el
Mod
el
Mod
el
Satellite
Satellite
Satellite
Satellite
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Dec 17, 2013 MAPP Seminar
California Current Surface Chlorophyll
Satellite-‐based surface Chlorophyll (mg Chl m-‐3)
ESM2.6 ESM2M
1.5
1
0.5
0
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Dec 17, 2013 MAPP Seminar
Humboldt Current Surface Chlorophyll
Satellite-‐based surface Chlorophyll (mg Chl m-‐3)
ESM2.6 ESM2M
1.5
1
0.5
0
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Dec 17, 2013 MAPP Seminar
Canary Current Surface Chlorophyll
Satellite-‐based surface Chlorophyll (mg Chl m-‐3)
ESM2.6 ESM2M
1.5
1
0.5
0
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Dec 17, 2013 MAPP Seminar
Benguela Current Surface Chlorophyll
Satellite-‐based surface Chlorophyll (mg Chl m-‐3)
ESM2.6 ESM2M
1.5
1
0.5
0
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Dec 17, 2013 MAPP Seminar
Offshore Chl in Obs, ESM2M, and ESM2.6
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Dec 17, 2013 MAPP Seminar
Offshore Chl in ESM2M/ESM2.6 vs. Obs. Mod
el
Mod
el
Satellite
Satellite
Mod
el
Mod
el
Satellite
Satellite
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Dec 17, 2013 MAPP Seminar
ESM2.6 100 m pH
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Dec 17, 2013 MAPP Seminar
ESM2.6 Surface pH
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Dec 17, 2013 MAPP Seminar
Offshore Surface pH in ESM2M and ESM2.6
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Dec 17, 2013 MAPP Seminar
Progress and Challenges Novel and synergisCc approaches will be necessary for the science
-‐ Many touchstone experiments are necessary for full exploraCon of uncertainCes
-‐ CriCcal to exercise mulCple applicaCons of the same model run
IniCal prototyping demonstrates strengths at mesoscale representaCon: -‐ SST gradients are generally well-‐represented.
-‐ Chlorophyll gradients exist, but are sCll damped.
-‐ pH gradients exist and have complex structure awaiCng further analysis
Many challenges remain:
-‐ Many large scale biases sCll exist at high resoluCon and await further development
-‐ Coastal acidificaCon a work in progress
-‐ Benthic-‐Pelagic, Estuarine and other interacCons sCll missing
-‐ Reduced BGC algorithm alternaCves require careful inspecCon