presented by:Chris Porter | Chief Demographer
[email protected] 6, 2019
F O R B U S I N E S S E SD E M O G R A P H I C C L A R I T Y
Goal: Clarity
A New View on Generations
Huge Demographic Shifts
Single-Family Rental Market
Demographic Trends Determine Future Demand
1 YEAR OLDER
0.9 MILLION DIVORCES
2.7 MILLION DEATHS
2.2 MILLION MARRIAGES
3.8 MILLION NEWBORNS
2019
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
NU
MB
ER
OF
BIR
TH
S
1930 1946 1965 1980 2000
SILENTGENERATION
BABYBOOMERS
GENERATIONX MILLENNIALS
Peak Birth Years
Source: Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics and CDC
Biggest Problem: Generations
72-year-old 58-year-old
1946 1964B A B Y B O O M E R S
Boomer
What Do These People Have in Common?
38-year-old 19-year-old
1980 2000M I L L E N N I A L S
Millennial
What Do These People Have in Common?
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Synchrony FinancialTD AmeritradeDWM Direct ReportsBoston.comNewsweekMark McCrindlePwCGallupPewGallup2NY TimesPew2NY Times4TransUnionTD Ameritrade5American ProgressNY Times6Goldman SachsNY Times7Elwood CarlsonHowe and StraussWhite HouseBob Bowman, MLB
“Millennials” Are The Most Widely Debated Generation Definition
Average:1981 to 1998
orages 21 to 38
The Solution: More Clarity
Define the Generations by Decade Born to Simplify Your Decision Making2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N
US Born Foreign Born
Y E A R S B O R N
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+
25 M
39 M43 M
41 M44 M 45 M
42 M
11 M
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2017 National Projections
US Born Foreign Born
Those Born in the 1930s Learned to Save Early in Life2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2017 National Projections
Y E A R S B O R N
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+
11 M
1930s SaversAge 79-88
2.4%
2.1%1.9%
1.5%
1.3% 1.3%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Retirees Had Double the Economic Growth That Their Children Have HadAV E R A G E G D P G R O W T H P E R P E R S O N — P R I M E W O R K I N G Y E A R S ( 2 5 - 5 4 )
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data*Prime working years not yet complete
RE
AL
GD
P G
RO
WT
H
G E N E R A T I O N
1960s Equalers* 1970s Balancers*1950s Innovators1940s Achievers 1980s Sharers*1930s Savers
US Born Foreign Born
The High-Achieving Earliest Boomers Have Retired2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2017 National Projections
Y E A R S B O R N
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+
25 M
11 M
1930s SaversAge 79-88
1940s AchieversAge 69-78
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
The Achievers Led the Decline in Stay-at-Home MomsS H A R E O F M O M S A G E D 2 5 - 3 4 W H O S TAY AT H O M E F U L L - T I M E
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS; colors based on a 30-year-old mother
SH
AR
E O
F M
OT
HE
RS
Y E A R
48%
24%
27%
US Born Foreign Born
The Innovative Boomers Are Now Retiring in Droves2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2017 National Projections
Y E A R S B O R N
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+
25 M
39 M
11 M
1930s SaversAge 79-88
1940s AchieversAge 69-78
1950s InnovatorsAge 59-68
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
P20
18P
2019
P20
20P
2021
P20
22P
2023
P20
24P
2025
P
Surging Retirement Will Slow Economy and Create New Types of Home Demand6 5 + P O P U L AT I O N B Y D E C A D E O F B I R T H
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Population Estimates and 2014 National Projections
65
+ P
OP
UL
AT
ION
(M
ILL
ION
S)
Y E A R
Pre 1930s 1930s Savers 1940s Achievers 1950s Innovators 1960s Equalers
48 M
65 M
Retirement Surge Will Lead to Slower Rate of Job Creation, Higher IncomesG R O W T H O F U S R E S I D E N T P O P U L AT I O N A G E S 2 0 - 6 4
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC calculations using US Census Bureau population estimates (1981–2016) and 2018 national projections (2017–2025)
Y E A R
AN
NU
AL
GR
WO
TH
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%19
4119
4319
4519
4719
4919
5119
5319
5519
5719
5919
6119
6319
6519
6719
6919
7119
7319
7519
7719
7919
8119
8319
8519
8719
8919
9119
9319
9519
9719
9920
0120
0320
0520
0720
0920
1120
1320
1520
17P
2019
P20
21P
2023
P20
25P
US Born Foreign Born
More 1960s-Born Women Graduated College Than Men2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2017 National Projections
Y E A R S B O R N
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+
25 M
39 M43 M
11 M
1930s SaversAge 79-88
1940s AchieversAge 69-78
1950s InnovatorsAge 59-68
1960s EqualersAge 49-58
Women Earn 58% of All College Degrees TodayP E R C E N T O F A L L B A C H E L O R ’ S A N D M A S T E R ’ S D E G R E E S C O N F E R R E D
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of National Center for Education Statistics data
197058% 58%2016
Rising DICE – Dual-Income, College EducatedD I C E S H A R E O F A L L M A R R I E D / PA R T N E R E D H O U S E H O L D S
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Current Population Survey ASEC via IPUMS-CPS
2%
5%
8%
11%
14%
17%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016SH
AR
E O
F A
LL
MA
RR
IED
/PA
RT
NE
RE
D H
OU
SE
HO
LD
S
Y E A R
Surprising Societal Shift: Rising Renters for Empty NestersR E N T E R S H I P R AT E B Y A G E , 4 5 - 6 4
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%19
82
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
RE
NT
ER
SH
IP R
AT
E
Y E A R
21.3% 20.9%
27.8%
US Born Foreign Born
1970s Balancers Shifted the Definition of Success to Include Success at Home2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2017 National Projections
Y E A R S B O R N
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+
25 M
39 M43 M
41 M
11 M
1930s SaversAge 79-88
1940s AchieversAge 69-78
1950s InnovatorsAge 59-68
1960s EqualersAge 49-58
1970s BalancersAge 39-48
37%35%
42%
25%
27%
29%
31%
33%
35%
37%
39%
41%
43%
1970s Balancer Homeownership at Their 10-Year High School ReunionH O M E O W N E R S H I P R AT E F O R 2 5 - 2 9 Y E A R - O L D S
Sources: US Census Bureau Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Survey; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
G E N E R A T I O N
6% above normal at age 28
1950s Innovators 1960s Equalers 1970s Balancers
1970s Balancer Homeownership at Their 20-Year High School ReunionH O M E O W N E R S H I P R AT E F O R 3 5 - 3 9 Y E A R - O L D S
Sources: US Census Bureau Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Survey; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
G E N E R A T I O N
61%63%
52%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
10% below normal at age 38
1950s Innovators 1960s Equalers 1970s Balancers
Dual-Income Households Peaked in 2000F E M A L E L A B O R F O R C E PA R T I C I PAT I O N R AT E , A G E S 2 0 – 6 4
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Labor Statistics data; color-coded based on the year a generation turns 20
% O
F 2
0–
64
YE
AR
-OL
D W
OM
EN
WH
O W
OR
K
Y E A R
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
1930s Savers
1940s Achievers
1950s Innovators
1960s Equalers
1970s Balancers
1980s Sharers
1990s Connectors
71%
37%42%
50%
61%69% 73% 71%
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
12.5%
13.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Almost 13% of America Now Rents a Single-Family HomeS I N G L E - FA M I LY R E N TA L H O M E S A S A P E R C E N T O F T O TA L H O U S E H O L D S
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data from American Community Survey; years are based on Q3
PE
RC
EN
T O
F T
OT
AL
HO
US
EH
OL
DS
Y E A R
US Born Foreign Born
1980s Sharers Have Led the Disruptive Shift to a Sharing Economy2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2017 National Projections
Y E A R S B O R N
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+
25 M
39 M43 M
41 M44 M
11 M
1930s SaversAge 79-88
1970s BalancersAge 39-48
1940s AchieversAge 69-78
1950s InnovatorsAge 59-68
1960s EqualersAge 49-58
1980s SharersAge 29-38
The 1980s Sharers Have Quintupled Student Debt Since 2004S T U D E N T L O A N S O U T S TA N D I N G ( T R I L L I O N S )
Sources: New York Federal Reserve Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
$260 billion
$1.49 Trillion20042019
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Marriage and Kids Continue to Happen Later in LifeP E R C E N T O F 2 5 – 2 9 Y E A R - O L D S S I N G L E A N D W I T H O U T C H I L D R E N
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS
PE
RC
EN
T O
F A
LL
25
–2
9 Y
EA
R O
LD
S
Y E A R
1970s Balancers 1980s Sharers
18%
27%
39%43%
56%1940s Achievers 1950s Innovators 1960s Equalers
46%
Being Single has Allowed 1980s Sharers to Live UrbanU R B A N S H A R E O F H O U S E H O L D G R O W T H
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data
SH
AR
E O
F H
OU
SE
HO
LD
GR
OW
TH
D E C A D E
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010–2015
21%
7%
10%8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010–2015
But the Suburbs Still Capture Most of the GrowthS U B U R B A N S H A R E O F H O U S E H O L D G R O W T H
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data
SH
AR
E O
F H
OU
SE
HO
LD
GR
OW
TH
D E C A D E
71%79%
69%77%
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
55–64Empty Nester Years
20–29Young Adult Urban Years
Urban Demand Surged as Young Adult and Empty Nesters Population GrewR E C E N T C H A N G E I N A D U LT P O P U L AT I O N B Y A G E , 2 0 0 5 – 2 0 1 5
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Population Estimates and 2017 National Projections
NE
T N
UM
BE
R O
F P
EO
PL
E (
MIL
LIO
NS
)
Y E A R
+10.2 M+4.6 M
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Milli
ons
Urban is Slowing as Demand Shifts to Family and Retirement YearsF U T U R E C H A N G E I N A D U LT P O P U L AT I O N B Y A G E 2 0 1 5 – 2 0 2 5
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Population Estimates and 2017 National Projections
NE
T N
UM
BE
R O
F P
EO
PL
E (
MIL
LIO
NS
)
Y E A R
55–64Empty Nester Years
20–29Young Adult Urban Years
+0.4M-0.4M
US Born Foreign Born
1990s Connectors Use Their Phones Whenever Possible2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2017 National Projections
Y E A R S B O R N
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+
25 M
39 M43 M
41 M44 M 45 M
11 M
1930s SaversAge 79-88
1970s BalancersAge 39-48
1980s SharersAge 29-38
1940s AchieversAge 69-78
1950s InnovatorsAge 59-68
1960s EqualersAge 49-58
1990s ConnectorsAge 19-28
Demographics Easily Support 12.5 Million More Households Over 10 YearsN E T C H A N G E I N H O U S E H O L D S B Y D E C A D E B O R N , 2 0 1 6 – 2 0 2 5 ( M I L L I O N S )
Sources: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
NE
T C
HA
NG
E I
N H
OU
SE
HO
LD
S (
MIL
LIO
NS
)
-4.9-3.8
-1.4 -0.11.6
4.3
14.0
5.9
1930sSavers
1940sAchievers
1950sInnovators
1960sEqualers
1970sBalancers
1980sSharers
1990sConnectors
2000sGlobals
13.3 Million Losses
25.8 Million Gains
US Born Foreign Born
The Oldest 2000s Globals are Just Entering Adulthood2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2017 National Projections
Y E A R S B O R N
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+
25 M
39 M43 M
41 M44 M 45 M
42 M
11 M
1930s SaversAge 79-88
1970s BalancersAge 39-48
1980s SharersAge 29-38
1990s ConnectorsAge 19-28
1940s AchieversAge 69-78
1950s InnovatorsAge 59-68
1960s EqualersAge 49-58
2000s GlobalsAge 9-18
The Economy Impacts Each Life Stage Differently
Childhood Early Career Family Formation Late Career Retirement
13% of Americans are Immigrants, Impacted by 1980s and 1990s Government Policies
FO
RE
IGN
-BO
RN
SH
AR
E O
F P
OP
UL
AT
ION
Y E A R
14%15%
13%
12%
9%
7%
5%5%
6%
8%
11%
13%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Majority of foreign-born US population born in Europe
F O R E I G N - B O R N S H A R E O F U S P O P U L AT I O N
Sources: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau data
Technologies Impact Each Generation Differently Too
VS
Percentage of 30-Year-Olds Hitting Life-Stage Milestones Has Fallen Precipitously Compared to Past Generations
90% 89%
76%
56%
70%
57%
47%
33%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Live on their own Have ever married Live with a child Own a home
1975 2015Percentage of 30-Year-Olds Hitting 'Adult' Milestones
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Data: 2015, updated quarterly†)
While many of these milestones have been delayed, over time young adults will move out on their own, get married and have children. In the meantime, these younger cohorts represent significant demand in the pipeline for single-family rental operators.
Boomer and Gen X Renters Report a Spike in Desire to Keep Renting; Millennial Interest in Homeownership DecliningRenters between the ages of 53–71 expressed the least interest in homeownership, with 42% of respondents reporting no interest in ever owning a home, up from 23% in 2016.
Q: Which one of these statements best reflects your views about why you are currently renting?
MillennialAge 21–37
Gen XAge 38–52
Baby boomerAge 53–71
I have no interest in ever owning a home I want to ownRenting is a good choice now
54%
68% 65% 71% 74%
40%24% 27% 22% 18%
6% 11% 8% 7% 8%
January2016
March2017
August2017
February2017
August2018
44%55% 55%
51%54%
46%35% 33% 31% 25%
9% 10% 13% 19% 21%
January2016
March2017
August2017
February2017
August2018
35%
39%47% 39%
39%
42%29%
21% 25% 19%
23%32% 31% 35% 42%
January2016
March2017
August2017
February2017
August2018
Most recent survey base: 365 millennials, 271 Gen Xers, 323 baby boomers; sample includes SF and MF renters.Sources: Freddie Mac Profile of Today's Renter, Multifamily Renter Research; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Data: Aug-18, Pub: Mar-19)
Mortgage Tax Savings No Longer There for Entry-Level Home BuyersHomeownership does not have the significant tax advantages it once did because of the increasing standard deduction, declining mortgage rates, and the recent tax policy changes. The standard deduction currently exceeds deductions for mortgage interest and property taxes by $10,658.
$6,351
($10,658)($12,000)
($10,000)
($8,000)
($6,000)
($4,000)
($2,000)
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
P
*Assumes a married couple w ith a mortgage equal to 95% of median home price and a 1.5% property tax rate. 2019 projected value assumes our forecasts of 6% home price appreciation and 4.6% mortgage rate.
Mortgage Interest and Property Taxes in Excess of Standard Tax Deduction*US national
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Data: 2019, updated quarterly†)
How Big is the Single-Family Rental Market?The 15.7 million single-family rental homes represent 34% of all rented homes.
There are more single-family rental homes than apartment units contained in buildings with 10 or more units.
139.2 MM Housing
units¹
14.2 MM Vacant¹
125.0 MM Households¹
45.6 MM Rented¹
79.4 MM Owned¹
29.5 MM with no mortgage²
.9 MM above average vacant¹ª
13.3 MM average vacant¹ª
1.3 MM 30–90 days delinquent*
.8 MM 90+ days
2.0 MM Mobile homes, boats, etc.¹
49.9 MM with
mortgage²47.8 MM with
equity³
2.1 MM with negative equity³
2.9 MM Attached one unit rentals¹
14.6 MM Units in large buildings [10+ units]¹
13.2 MM Units in small buildings [2–9 units]¹
12.8 MM Detached one unit rentals¹
Pub: May-19
Single-Family Rentals as Percentage of Rental Housing Stock by StateSingle-family rentals comprise as much as 45%+ of rental housing in Midwestern states such as Oklahoma and Kansas. Northeastern states like New York and Massachusetts see only 12%+.
Single-Family Rentals as % of Total Rental Housing Stock by State
Note: Single-Family includes attached and detached units.Sources: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
SFR Ownership is Still Dominated by “Mom & Pop” InvestorsInstitutional owners/developers, those with over 100 units, have a competitive advantage over investors with fewer rental homes. Geographic concentration and technology allows institutional SFR owners to benefit from economies of scale in leasing, managing, and maintaining homes.
78% (10.8M)
8% (1.2M)
4% (538K)
6% (786K)
4% (531K)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
1 to 2
3 to 5
6 to 10
11 to 100
100+ (Institutional)
% of Total US Single-Family Rental Properties
National Single-Family Rental Ownership by Property Count
Source: ATTOM Data Solutions (Data: Jan-19, Pub: Feb-19)
Investor Portfolio Size
This analysis includes single-family detached residential only, per ATTOM Data Solutions non-owner occupied methodology. Values may include second homes that are not rented and non-owner occupied homes not used as rentals. We estimate the total US properties based on ATTOM’s 900+ market areas where the data was available. Institutional ownership in the 100+ property category is a rollup of those metros where owners own 100+ properties. An institutional owner may own fewer than 100 properties in a metro that is not counted in the national total. As a result, Institutional ownership is slightly understated, as big investors own less than 100 units in some MSAs, and this ownership is not included in the 100+ total. ATTOM programmatically identifies non-owner occupied homes (rental) and owner groupings by reviewing the owner name, zip code, and/or mailing address.
Profile Comparisons of Single-Family vs. Apartment RentersCompared to apartment renters, single-family renters are older and more likely to be married with kids.
30%
37%
58%
46%
12%
17%
Single-family
Multifamily
Under 35 35–64 65+Single-Family vs. Multifamily Age
38%
21%
62%
79%
Single-family
Multifamily
Married UnmarriedSingle-Family vs. Multifamily Marital Status
48%
71%
37%
24%
14%
6%
Single-family
Multifamily
No Kids 1–2 Kids 3+ KidsSingle-Family vs. Multifamily Kids
Note: Single-family defined as 1-unit detached and attached (townhome) units. Multifamily defined as 2+ unit structures. Mobile home renters not included.Sources: US Census Bureau 2017 American Community Survey data via IPUMS-USA
Reasons Tenants Choose to Rent Single-Family HomesSingle-family renters value having private laundry, privacy from neighbors, and ample parking.
0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75%
Making changes to unit
Landlord relationship
Storage
Feels like a "step up"
Noise
Yard
Pets
Size
Parking
Privacy
Laundry
Extremely important Very importantFactors That Influence Single-Family Rental Housing Choice
Sources: Terner Center for Housing Innovation; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Data: Apr-18, Pub: Mar-19)
Why Single-Family Homes are in Demand65% of Single-Family Rental Homes Contain Three or More Bedrooms Compared to Just 11% of Apartments
Young families not in a position to own, will overwhelmingly target single-family rental properties over apartments given their life stage and preference for good schools.
Single-Family Rents Grew 26% from 2011–2018Rent growth has historically stayed positive, even in recessionary periods (shaded in pink below). We forecast rents will increase another 9% through 2022 as poor homeownership affordability and shift toward renting props up demand.
3.7%
3.1%
2.4%
1.9%
1.6%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Cur
rent
2019
P20
20P
2021
P20
22P
US roll-up = 3.7% Historical average = 3.4%Burns Single-Family Rent Index™ (YOY %)
Note: We calculate the US roll-up based on a weighted average of 63 markets.Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Data: Mar-19; Pub: May-19)
SFR Rents Up 4% YOY NationallyStrongest Growth in Las Vegas, Phoenix and Orlando (7%); Weakest in Houston and Cincinnati (1%)
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Data: Mar-19, Pub: May-19) *Metropolitan division **Combination of metropolitan divisions
1.2%1.4%
2.2%2.9%
3.1%3.1%
3.4%3.5%3.6%
3.7%4.0%
4.1%4.6%
4.9%4.9%
5.2%5.5%
6.5%6.6%
6.7%7.0%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
CincinnatiHouston
Miami*Dallas*
IndianapolisSan Antonio
Raleigh-DurhamDenver
Chicago**US roll-up (63-market)
Columbus, OHNashvilleCharlotte
TampaSalt Lake CityRiverside-SBJacksonville
AtlantaOrlandoPhoenix
Las Vegas
Burns Single-Family Rent Index™Mar-19 YOY %
73% of All SFR Rents in the Country Fall below $1,500/ Month; 50% below $1,100/MonthREITs generally operate at higher average rental rates: INVH = $1,768; AMH = $1,591; TAH = $1,361; RESI = $1,261.
13%
15%
21%23%
27%
22%
18%
22%
19%18%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Less than $650 $650–849 $850–1,099 $1,100–1,499 $1,500 or More
Single-family ApartmentsMonthly Rental Rate by Type of Rental Housing Stock
Note: Single-Family includes attached and detached units.Sources: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates; JBREC
Single-Family Rents More Stable and Less Responsive to Business Cycle Than Apartment Rents and Home PricesSingle-family rent growth has historically stayed positive even in recessionary periods (shaded in pink).
Resale home price appreciation is our Burns Home Value Index™ weighted average rollup of 132 markets.Single-family rent is our Burns Single-Family Rent Index™ weighted average rollup of 63 markets.Apartment rent is Reis Services, LLC 46-market weighted rollup.Sources: REIS effective rent; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC; JBREC projections (Data: Mar-19, Pub: May-19)
0
0 .0 5
0 .1
0 .1 5
0 .2
0 .2 5
0 .3
0 .3 5
0 .4
0 .4 5
0 .5
(12.0%)
(8.0%)
(4.0%)
0.0%
4.0%
8.0%
12.0%
16.0%
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
P20
20P
2021
P20
22P
Home price appreciation Single-family rent Apartment rentHome Price Appreciation vs. Single-Family Rent vs. Apartment RentNational YOY % change
Builders Constructed 42K New Single-Family Attached and Detached Homes for Rent over Past Year; Up 14% YOY
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Sing
le-fa
mily
hom
es b
uilt
for r
ent (
in th
ousa
nds)
Historical averageNew Privately Owned Single-Family Starts Built for RentTrailing-twelve months
Note: This category includes all houses built on builders’ land with the intention of renting the housing unit. A lease-purchase, rent-purchase, or other option to eventually buy the house may exist. The category also includes retirement community units, occupied under a life-lease/continuing-care arrangement. (Occupants pay an up-front fee or small monthly fees for lifelong use.) The Census does not track actions taken after the sale of built-for-sale homes; therefore, the data does not include houses purchased by investors with the intention of renting out the unit.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Data: 1Q19, Pub: May-19)
Goal: Clarity
A New View on Generations
Huge Demographic Shifts
Single-Family Rental Market
QUESTIONS?Chris Porter