Risk AnalysisRisk AnalysisSingle Path (CPM) vs. Monte Carlo technique (1000iterations)CPM - Does not take uncertainty into account3 Durations (min, most likely ,max)Each iteration has it’s own critical pathTraditional CPM shows only 1 critical path“S-Curve”presents likelihood of finish datesPertmaster –3rd Party software that analyzes schedules~
Sanity Check to Baseline ScheduleSanity Check to Baseline Schedule
•VerifyScheduleIntegrity /Mechanics
Baseline Schedule with 3 DurationsBaseline Schedule with 3 Durations
Min and Max set to specific numbers or a percentage (10-20%) ofMost Likely or Original Duration
Why Did the Finish Date Change?Why Did the Finish Date Change?Single Path (CPM) vs. Monte Carlo technique(1000 iterations)Parallel Path & Merge Bias Effect ~
WallFramed
InstallElectricalRough-inWalls L2
InstallElectricalRough-inSoffits L2
InstallElectricalRough-inCeiling L2
InstallPhone &
Data CablingL2
InstallSecurity
System RIWalls L2
InstallGWB,
Drywall,and Taping L2
“MergeBias”Point
Tornado GraphsTornado Graphs ––Criticality IndexCriticality IndexDuring the risk analysis iterations, the number oftimes an activity was critical is recorded ~
Schedule Sensitivity IndexSchedule Sensitivity IndexThe SSI identifies and ranks the tasks most likely toinfluence the project duration / finish ~
Duration SensitivityDuration SensitivityCorrelation between the duration of a task and theduration of the project.The task with the highest duration sensitivity is the taskthat is most likely to increase the project duration ~.