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Jared Wesley @ipracademic
2013 Provincial General Election ConferenceUniversity of British Columbia | February 1, 2014
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The Canadian Provincial Election Project The Election Cycle in Context
l l Macro‐level Patterns to Date BC in Perspective
h d l d Consistency with Federal Wisdom Alignment, Misalignment, Refinement
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SSHRC Standard Research Grant plus many, many local sources
Mixed‐Method Project mass survey as the lynchpin
All Ten Provinces Confirmed only NB remaining next cycle under development
Online (panel + IVR‐to‐Web)
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Province Sample Size Survey Datesp yPE 509 October 4 to 25, 2011MB 775 October 5 to 31, 2011ON 1044 O t b 7 t 31 2011ON 1044 October 7 to 31, 2011NL 851 October 12 to 30, 2011SK 821 November 8 to 21, 2011AB 897 April 25 to May 15, 2012QC 1009 September 5 to October 11, 2012BC 803 May 15 to 29 2013BC 803 May 15 to 29, 2013NS 797 October 9 to November 3, 2013
N=7506
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M l d liti l k ti1. Marland: political marketing2. Sampert & Petit‐Vouriot: media politics3. Coletto & Breguet: polling
B k & J i fi4. Brock & Jansen: campaign finance5. Roy & McGrane: vote choice models6. Berdahl , Clavelle, McGrane: economic voting
R P ll B d l/ b ti 7. Roy, Perrella, Borden: rural/urban voting 8. Rounce & Levasseur: private/public/non‐profit sector voting9. Siaroff & Wesley: turnout over time
Th l k d 10. Thorlakson: turnout and congruence11. Everitt: representation12. Kanji & Tannahill: political community
K ji & H ki l ffi13. Kanji & Hopkins: external efficacy
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S ill BC1. Summerville BC2. Sayers & Stewart AB3. Rasmussen SK4. Wesley MB5. Anderson ON6 Kanji QC6. Kanji QC7. Levesque NB8. Carbert NS
M l d NL9. Marland NL10. Desserud PE11. White YT, NT, NU
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the Great Recession fixed date elections
h f d l l the 2011 federal election
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Incumbency Women in leadership
h ll ll Challenges in polling Rural/Urban Split
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the permanent campaign exitssupply‐ and demand‐side barriers to women’s
dand LGBT representationturnout affects polling accuracy
f l ffperformance evals affect community supportblock recursive and valence models work
l b b b d drural/urban/suburban divides existprivate/public/non‐profit voting patterns
ld dtwo‐worlds and turnout
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media market logic prevails campaign finance rules affect party competitiveness
economic voting: egocentric factors trump sociotropic ones
turnout is an individual‐level phenomenonl ff h l h blexternal efficacy has no relationship to public
support
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Jared Wesley @ipracademic
2013 Provincial General Election ConferenceUniversity of British Columbia | February 1, 2014
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Jared Wesley @ipracademic
2013 Provincial General Election ConferenceUniversity of British Columbia | February 1, 2014