Japan’s Experience for DRR&
Linking DRR to Sustainable Development by DR2AD Model
Sep 2013
TAKEYA KimioVisiting Senior Advisor of Japan International Cooperation Agency
Why Japan can dedicates on DRR
• Japan is the most natural hazardous country in the world.
• In the same time, one of the most technology oriented developed country.
• How Japan coexists or conquereDisaster & Development
1
Japan case
• More than 50% of population, living in the flood plain
• More than 75% of whole asset located in the flood plain
• Without any structure measures, Japan can not survive
• How to prepare excess flood or earthquake
2
Up to 15th Century, Tone River crossed the Kanto Plain from north to south and flew into Tokyo Bay
From 1594 to 1654, Tone River was connected to Pacific Ocean by eastward channel
・After the flood in 1910, flood control measures in upper and middle reaches has changed from “flood control allowing inundation” to “sequential levees confinement”
・After this change, the maximum discharge in the Tone River Channel has increased, which became the main challenge of flood control in Tone River Basin
Tone River
Kinu River
Watarase River
Kokai River
Tone River
Kinu RiverWatarase River
Kokai River
History of flood control in Tone River basin (400years ago)
Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan
Source: Water Disaster Statistics, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure Transport and Tourism
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
01962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Area inundated (ha)
Number of fatalities and inundation area have dramatically been reduced in Japandue to continuous investment in and efforts for flood mitigation.
Reduction of flood damages in Japan by continuous investment
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
01946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Number of fatalities by flood
How Japan conquered disaster
5
Disaster
DisasterDisaster
Time
Development
Development were Obstructed by
Disasters,
Normal Development
Recovery & Development
At least, Build-back-better
6
Levee
Combination of Structural Measuresand Non-Structural Measures
Investment
Effectiveness
Investment and Effectiveness
Levee
Barrage
Reservoir System
TargetSafety Level
7
Levee
Combination of Structural Measuresand Non-Structural Measures
Investment
Effectiveness
Levee
Barrage
Reservoir System
TargetSafety Level
Climate Variability?Climate Change?
How to prepare excess flood?or Project is not completed yet
After Catastrophic Disaster, Donors make survey
8
• Recent flood case– 2009 Philippines Manila Flood,
– 2010 Pakistan Indus flood
– 2011 Thailand Flood
2009 Philippines PDNA
9
2010 Pakistan PDNA
10
2011 Thailand flood
11
1212
TargetSafety Level
Investment
Effectiveness
Levee
Levee
Barrage
Reservoir System
Structural Measures(Basic Infrastructures)
Non-Structural Measures
Mitigation Adaptation
Control, Protection
Goal
Safe and/or Resilient
Combination of Structural Measuresand Non-Structural Measures
How to invest today?Principle for
low regret investment
13
• Population of damaged area of 3 prefectures,1km from coast is 460,000, 3km 1.0million, 5km 1.5million
• Total causalities were around ≒18,000
• 460,000 residents lived in the tsunami affected area so that evacuation ratio can be estimated more than 96 %
• This high evacuation ratio achieved by legend transmission, by Tsunami Early Warning System and by evacuation drill effort
• 65% of casualties were aged people, over 65 y.o.
Tsunami Evacuation Situation in general
96%> evacuated !!
For the CBDRM project, this is successful case
14
More than 97% evacuated successfully,but local economy was completely destroyed.
Can we say this “resilient”?We need more investment
to prevent disaster
1515
Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters
The integration of disaster risk reduction into sustainable development policies and planning
Development and strengthening of institutions, mechanism and capacities to build resilience to hazards
The systematic incorporation of risk reduction approaches into the implementation of emergency preparedness, response and recovery
HFA1
Make Disaster Risk Reduction a Priority
HFA2
Know the Risks and Take Action
HFA3
Build Understanding and Awareness
HFA4
Reduce Risk
HFA5
Be Prepared and Ready to Act
Three Strategic Goals:
Priorities for Action:
Hyogo Framework for ActionOverall Goal:
16
JICA’s Support meet to the Priority Action
• The projects related to priority action 4 are increasing rapidly compared to others.
• It entails the best mix of structural and non-structural measures.
0 0 0 0 0 2 292 2 4 6 12
25 32
280
4
96
1525 34
81
4743
68
116
159
206
259
5 1323
4254
30
50
100
150
200
250
300
~1980 1981~1985 1985~1990 1991~1995 1996~2000 2001~2005 2006~2008
Priority 1_Ensure priority of disaster risk reduction
Priority 2_Knowing disaster risk and act
Priority 3_Improve knowledge of disaster risk reduction
Priority 4_Reduce risks
Priority 5_Prepare in advance and be ready to act for emergency
Priority 4
Priority 2
Priority 5
Priority 3
Priority 1
17
Post MDG/HFA, 2015
Sustainable Development Goals
Post-2015 Development
Agenda
HFA2
2015
Rio+20(June 2012)
SDGsOpen Working Group
HLP Report(May 2013)
SG Report(Sep 2013)
GA discussion(Sep 2013 -)
GPDRR(May 2013)
Prep-Com
Sustainable Development Goals
Post-2015 Development
Agenda
HFA2
DR2AD Model
What is the barrier for mainstreaming the DRR
20
Disaster
DisasterDisaster
Time
Development
Obstructed byDisasters,
far away fromMDGs
Normal Development
Recovery & Developmentbut DRR investment is
much cheaper than recovery
At least,“build-back-better”
How to convince & mainstream DRR?
Need to show the evidenceto “political leaders”
• Economical Model which can measure – GDP change
– income differential and Gini coefficient change in Lorenz curve
• With & Without DRR investment
• Philosophy from Japanese experiences “DRR investment Account for Development
21
JICA developed Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model to show the effectiveness of DRR investment
2013 Global Assessment Report P-87
22
GD
P
By disasters, increasing poverty and continued to be stuck in an increase in poverty, widening inequality, from the trap of poverty
Enlarged view
without disaster Effect of DRR investment
By the conventional benefit evaluation method, benefit of DRR investment is evaluated with collective amount of the society. (GRP and/or GDP)
Indicators to evaluate the entire
benefit (A)Disaster Event
With DRR Investment(with disaster)
Sustainable development
Without DRR Investment(with disaster)
Time
Stop of economic activity by direct damage⇒ Expansion of poverty
Stagnation of economic activity and the recovery delay due to lack of funds→ continuation of poverty trap
Differences with/without DRR investmentto GDP
Differences with/without DRR investment to Lorenz curve
24
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
1
0
45度線
Extreme Poor
Most Rich
Poor
Near Poor
Better Off
Incom
e C
um
ula
tive
Rela
tive
Fre
quency
Household No Cumulative Relative Frequency
Input & Output 1
25
Input & Output 2
26
Pakistan case for 2042 GDP will 25% down without DRR investment
27
Without Disaster
With DisasterWith DRR invest
Pakistan case for 2042 :Gini Coefficient proportion with or without DRR
28
MDG Targets & Indicators exemplified by DR2AD
29
Targets Indicators Exemplified by DR2AD Model
Target 1.A
Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day
1A1 Population below $1/day, %
◎It is possible to calculate the expense of each person except the number ofpeople per household, it is possible to calculate the indicator of expectancy inthe “First Edition”.
1A6 Poverty gap ratio at $1/day, %
◎It is possible to calculate the indicator of expectancy in the “First Edition” byusing the rate of poverty or the Gini coefficient.
1A7 Poorest quintile's share in national income or consumption, %
◎It is possible to calculate the expense of each person by income level it ispossible to calculate the indicator of expectancy in the “First Edition”.
Target 1.B
Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people
1B1 Growth rate of GDP per worker, %
◎It is possible to calculate the growth rate of GDP, it is possible to calculate theindicator of expectancy in the “First Edition”.
1B2 Employment-to population ratio, %
○
It is possible to estimate the growth of the population, it is possible to calculate the indicator of expectancy in the “First Edition” if it is feasible to set up the distribution of employees in the lowest level of income according to the age and the population.
1B5 Proportion of workers living below $1/day, %
○
It is possible to calculate the amount of the expense of each person, it is possible to calculate the indicator of expectancy in the “First Edition” if it is feasible to set up the distribution of employees living below a dollar a day in the lowest income level.
1B6 Proportion of own-account and contributing family workers in total employment
△If the model of the industrial structure is classified in detail, it can be feasible to calculate the indicator of expectancy by improving the model.
Target 1.C
Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger
1C3,4 Population undernourished,
○It is possible to calculate the indicator of expectancy in the “First Edition” if the consumption rate of calories is converted to the rate of expense.
Target 2.A
Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling
2A1 Total net enrolment rate in primary education
◎It is possible to calculate the indicator of expectancy in the “First Edition” because the model is capable of taking account of human capital.
2A10 Literacy rate between 15 and 24 years old, %
○Although it is hard to correlate the level of age with the , it is possible to calculate the indicator of expectancy in the “First Edition” if it is feasible to set up the distribution of the literacy level according to the social level.
Deliver as a Computer Softwarein order everyone can use
30
Policy Brochure & Background White Paper
31
Future of DR2AD Model
32
JICA developed Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model, how DRR Investment Account for Development as for version 1.0
JICA wants to brush up DR2AD Model together with other agencies, using actual case study data
Collect dataset together and develop version 2.0 or more emphasized version likeStatic versionSimplified capacity building educational versionMore emphasized to poorest layers
as a DR2AD Family Series
Start discussing UNISDR to apply DR2AD Model for 20 countries
List of Participating Countries
33
Regions Countries DLD DRA DR2AD Major past disasters
IndianOcean Islands
Union des Comores ○Cyclone, Heavy rain, Earthquake
Republic of Madagascar ○ Cyclone, Drought, Earthquake
Republic of Seychelles ○ Cyclone, Storm surge
Republic of Mauritius ○Cyclone, Storm surge, Drought
Zanzibar ○
CaribbeanIslands
LatinAmerica
Asia
Africa
DLD : Disaster Risk Index dataDRA : Disaster Risk Assessment
Proposed Idea ; Frameworks of WS Trainings
34
A: Recognition of necessity of Disaster Prevention
1. Understanding the characteristics of disasters(based on DLD)
2. Analyzing socio-economic characteristics
(current and future)
3. Analyzing current and foreseeable disasterrisks(by implementation of DRA)
B:Development of and discussion on disaster prevention measures
4.Excerption of the menu of necessarymeasures
5.Development of disaster prevention measures
6.Promotion of disaster prevention measures
Training on Disaster Loss Database (DLD)
Training on Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA)
Training on DR2AD
<UNISDR>
<UNISDR>
<JICA>
① Basic concepts of mainstreaming DisasterPrevention Policies• Significance and Necessity• Specific examples
②Assessments of alternative measures based on DR2AD model • Goals and impacts of measures• Difference in disaster prevention effects by
combination• Setting indexes for the assessment
(Keyword: poverty, endurance)
③Handbook for mainstreaming disaster preventionpolicies.
35
Proposing tools for Post MDG/HFA
Convince Policy Makerby DR2AD Model
for “How to Mainstream DRR” Disaster Risk Assessment to all projects
Handbook for “How to Mainstream DRR”
for Lesson learned from recent mega disastersThree Principles approach for
Low Regret Investment
DRR investment is not the costbut the asset
for development
36
37
38
Proposing tools for Post MDG/HFA
Convince Policy Makerby DR2AD Model
Handbook for “How to Mainstream DRR” Disaster Risk Assessment to all projects
Handbook for “How to Mainstream DRR”
for Lesson learned from recent mega disastersThree Principles approach for
Low Regret Investment
39
4040
Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters
The integration of disaster risk reduction into sustainable development policies and planning
Development and strengthening of institutions, mechanism and capacities to build resilience to hazards
The systematic incorporation of risk reduction approaches into the implementation of emergency preparedness, response and recovery
HFA1
Make Disaster Risk Reduction a Priority
HFA2
Know the Risks and Take Action
HFA3
Build Understanding and Awareness
HFA4
Reduce Risk
HFA5
Be Prepared and Ready to Act
Three Strategic Goals:
Priorities for Action:
Hyogo Framework for ActionOverall Goal:
JICA’s another Support to Mainstreaming the National Disaster Management
• Sri Lanka– Support to Capacity Development for
“Disaster Management Center” of Sri Lanka
• Thailand– Support to Capacity development for
“Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM)”
• Indonesia– Support to National Disaster Management Plan & Regional
Disaster Management Plan throughBNPB, National Disaster Management Agency Capacity Development
• Philippines– Support Office of Civil Defense Capacity Development
41
From top down to bottom or bottom up to top
42
Central Government Support1/1=100%
Selected Provincial Government Support1/30 = 3%
Selected Community Based DRM1/20,000 = 0.005%
Selected Municipality Government Support1/500 = 0.2%
How to spread whole country?
43
How to spread whole country?
Central Government Support1/1=100%
Selected Provincial Government Support1/30 = 3%
Selected Community Based DRM1/20,000 = 0.005%
Selected Municipality Government Support1/500 = 0.2%
44
Proposing tools for Post MDG/HFA
Convince Policy Makerby DR2AD Model
Disaster Risk Assessment to all projects
for Lesson learned from recent mega disastersThree Principles approach for
Low Regret Investment
45
How world watching Japan
46
2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk ReductionRevealing Risk, Redefining Development
Risk – the future. Synchronic failures and sequential
crisis ?
2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk ReductionRevealing Risk, Redefining Development
Populations and economies exposed to tsunamis
2011 May 25 at UNHQGAR 2011 Launch & Lesson Learned & DRR
47
How about recent mega disaster?
48
• Worst ranking of economic losses– 2011 East Japan Earthquake & Tsunami
– 2005 Hurricane Katrina
– 1995 Hanshin Awaji Earthquake
– 2011 Thailand Flood
Japanese Crown Prince Visited Flooded Area
49
What happened after HFA
• Most of donors concentrated to E/W
• Most of donors escaped from challenging structure measures , like reservoir system and so on.
• All donors looks like NGO or amateur for DRR
• Where are the professional confident activities?
• JICA continuously supporting to reduce the risk
50
51
Post MDG/HFA, 2015
Future version up of DR2AD Model
• JICA developed Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model, how DRR Investment Account for Development as for version 1.0
• JICA wants to brush up DR2AD Model together with other agencies, using actual case study data
• Collect dataset together and develop version 2.0 or more emphasized version like– Static version
– Simplifies capacity building version
– More emphasized to poorest layers
as a DR2AD Family Series
• Discussing UNISDR to apply DR2AD Model for 20 countries
52
2013 Global Assessment Report page 87
53
2013 Global Assessment Report page 87
54
From top down to bottom or bottom up to top
55
Central Government Support1/1=100%
Selected Provincial Government Support1/30 = 3%
Selected Community Based DRM1/20,000 = 0.005%
Selected Municipality Government Support1/500 = 0.2%
How to spread whole country?
56
How to spread whole country?
Central Government Support1/1=100%
Selected Provincial Government Support1/30 = 3%
Selected Community Based DRM1/20,000 = 0.005%
Selected Municipality Government Support1/500 = 0.2%
1882
1919
1954
1996
37yeas
35years
42years
Excavation of Ara River Floodway
1911 1930
Urbanization progressed due to the improvement of the safety level by the excavation of Ara River Floodway
Former retarding basin area has also been urbanized
Metropolitan Tokyo area has developed with flood defense woks
Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan
River channel improvement
Widen and dredge rivers
before
after
58Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan
59
Improvement of dikesBuilding and strengthening of dikes
Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan
Costal disaster-preventionareas in Nagoya
* Where schools, hospitals, meeting grounds, public offices, welfare facilities for children, and other public architectures located in areas of Categories 2 – 4 are concerned, one or more residential spaces will be placed on the architecture with the floor height of the first floor of N・P(+) 2 m or higher, and with the height of N・P (+) 3.5 m or higher.
Atsuta Sta.
Category 2 area
Category 4 area
Category 3 area
To Nagoya Sta.
Nagoya Port
Kanayama Sta.
Article 39 of the Building Standards Act, “Disaster Hazard Areas”
Considerations of Flood Hazards in Land Use Regulations
Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan
61Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan
In order to promote smooth evacuation actions reference to water levels for evacuation orders have been established and categorization of water levels based on risk levels have been implemented.
Levee
Houses
Flood ChannelLow Flow Channel
River
Risk level
Level
5Leve
l 4Leve
l 3
Level
1
Lev
el 2
Flooding occurs
Flooding nearly occurs
Water Level and Risk Level
Evacuation should be decided Flood is cautionaryFlood fighters act
Flood fighters stand by
Top of Levee
Information Provision for Encouraging Evacuation
Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan
Information on the assumed flood water depth, evacuation sites, etc. is indicated in town in order to allow residents to escape safely and smoothly when a flood occurs.
This symbol indicates that the area concerned may be affected by floods.
This symbol shows a safe building that provides a shelter when a disaster occurs.
[Flood-related symbols]JIS規格(案内用図記号) Z8210:2006
[Flood]
[Evacuation site (building)]
※現在、東京都北区(荒川)、兵庫県豊岡市(円山川)に設置
Examples of flood-related signs installed
Information on the assumed flood water depth, evacuation sites, etc. is indicated on electric poles and the walls of public facilities.
Raising Awareness on Flood Hazard
Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan
Installation of a real time simulation system, which provides its results for forecasting of inundation depth and area based on observed data and projection of rainfall and water level of river in case of flooding is on going.
浸水深の経時変化
決壊地点の設定
破堤幅・破堤敷高の設定
決壊地点等の設定
2時間後
6時間後
12時間後
Change of inundation depth at any point
Select an arbitrary point
×
×:time of dyke break
Reinforcement of Information Provision in Emergency
Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan
Information provided on the internet
Information provided to mobile phonesContents
•Precipitation by hyetometer
•Precipitation by radar rain gages
•Water level etc.
Provision of River information by internet and mobile phone
Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan
66
Variety of Early Warnings for Tsunami in Japan
• TV and Radio, emergency warning
• Cell phone warning for earthquake
• Registered earthquake broadcast service
• Loud speaker evacuation order to community
• others
67
Successful Evacuation by Students in Kamaishi City
(Source: Research Center for Disaster Prevention in the Extended Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Gunma University)
More than 3,000 students decided to evacuate further to higher ground based on their own decision, as educated.
68
Sad case in another area
実写奈良県
Every Natural Disaster has forerunning phenomenonthen we can predict disaster & let people evacuate
Even debris flowWe can predict
How about the magnitude of big earthquake?E/Q happens with long return period
Lesson learned of E/Q transferred to next generation?
If no, you can learn from examples
• C:\DATA\DATA\日本の知見\耐震実験\www.bosai.go.jp\hyogo\movie.html
70
How about the magnitude of big earthquake
• C:\DATA\DATA\日本の知見\耐震実験\www.bosai.go.jp\hyogo\movie.html
71
JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disasterfrom 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1
JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disasterfrom 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1
JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disasterfrom 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1
• Was there anything out of our mind?
The ability to recognize risk and take action properly
75
Three keys for Successful DRR
Self Supportor
Self Defense
Mutual Support
Public Support
• Was there anything out of our mind?
The ability to recognize risk and take action properly
JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disasterfrom 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1
77
continuous improvement to deal with changing risk
• Was there anything out of our mind?
JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disasterfrom 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 2
• Was there anything out of our mind?
78
“multi-sector” and/or “multilayer of defense
JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disasterfrom 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 3
JICA’s Lesson Learnt from MEGA Disaster=2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood=
• Was there anything out of our mind?
79
“multi-sector” and/or “multilayer of defense
The ability to recognize risk and take action properly
Mainstreaming Of DRMfor Sustainable Development
Capacity of societyTo cope with disaster continuous improvement to deal
with changing risk
Mainstreaming DRR to the top policy
80