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DisasterResiliencecanbeanaffordablebyproductofaSmartEnergyFuture.DanBihn,Engineer-StorytellerOctober2016
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Incaseyoumissedallthetweets……SmartEnergyhasbeenhappeninginJapanforawhile.
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DisasterResilienceistechnicallyeasytobuild…
HavingDisasterResiliencepayitswayonadailybasisisthechallenge
Japanmayhavefigureditout
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=GridConnectedEVs
SmartHomes
MeaningfulPrices
DisasterResilience
NewBusinesses
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IfyoudecidetobuildahouseinJapantoday…
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Youwillbeasked,Howsmartwouldyoulikeittobe?
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Howmuchsolarwouldyoulike?
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Wouldyoulikeafuelcelltogenerateelectricityandheatyourbathwater?
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Wouldyoulikealithium-ionbattery thatcanpoweryourhomefor3daysifdisasterstrikesandhelpreduceyourelectricitycostonadailybasis…
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… bychargingitatnightfor6¢/kWh.
…andsometimessellingitbacktotheutilityintheafternoonfor25¢/kWh?
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Andwouldyoulikethatbatterytobeyourcar?
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HowdidJapangettothepointwheredisasterresiliencecanactuallypayforitselfonday-to-daybasis?
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NaturalDisastersarePartofJapaneseHistoryandCulture
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September1st,1923TheGreatKantoEarthquakeAbout150,000peopledied– mostlyintheensuingfirestorm.
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September1st becameDisasterPreventionDay.Companiesandcommunitiesoftenhavehands-onfiredrills.MyfriendSugawara-sandemonstratesthatitisseriousbusiness,butfuntoo.It’sapartoflife.
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JustBeforetheTripleDisasterMarch11,2011(“3-11”)
Earthquake,Tsunami,Fukushima
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ThisishowJapanmadeitselectricity.
Type AnnualEnergy PeakCapacity
Nuclear 29.2% 20.2%NaturalGas 29.4% 25.5%Coal 24.7% 15.7%Oil 7.6% 19.1%Hydro 7.3% 8.6%PumpedHydro -0.7% 10.6%
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TheaggregateconsumptionofelectricityforTokyoonasummerday
Onatypicalsummerday,Tokyo’selectricityusepatternlookslikethis.Notethenotchatnoon.That’swhenmostofficesinJapanplaymusicorringabellsignalingitstimeforlunch.Energy-consciousemployeesturnofflightsandcomputermonitors.Andtheregion’selectricityusagedrops5%.Really.
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Thishand-drawngraphshowshowJapangeneratedandusedelectricitybeforethedisaster.Roughly30%Nuclear,30%NaturalGas,25%Coal,7%Oil,8%Hydro.
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WhenthesuncameuponMarch11th,2011,Japanwasplanningonincreasingitsdependenceonnuclearpowerfrom30%to50%by2030.
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At2:46PMonFriday,March11,2011,amagnitude9.0earthquakestruck70milesoffthecoastofnorthernJapancausingseveraldeathsandtriggeringtheimmediatecollapseofthepowergridinnorthernJapan.
30to90minuteslater,tsunamiwavescameashorekilling20,000peopleandtriggeringthemeltdownof3ofJapan’s54nuclearreactors.
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ImmediateGridcollapse
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BlackoutArea4PMMarch11,2011
BeforethegroundstartedshakinginTokyo,230milesfromtheepicenter,mostofnorthernHonshu(Tohoku)hadlostpower.
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3dayslater,thesituationhadimproved,butthelargestcityintheregion,Sendai,wasstillinthedark.
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8dayslater,onlythedevastatedcoastalareaswerewithoutpower.
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ButontheeveningofMarch11th noteveryonewasinthedark…
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AnexperimentalmicrogridatthisteachinghospitalinSendaikeptsomeofthelightson.
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Themicrogridissurroundedbysolarpanelsinthemiddleofcampus.
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Dr.HirosefromNTTFacilitiesshowsoffthepartofthesystemthatworkedthebest– thePVpanelsandbatteries.
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DownthestreetatTohokuUniversity,Dr.Tohjioverlookshissmallmicrogrid that…
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…keptthelightsoninhisbeautifulnewwoodenlaboratory.
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Agradstudentproudlyshowsthephotosfromthefirstnightaftertheearthquake.
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Beforethedisaster,54nuclearreactorsprovided30%ofJapaneseelectricity…
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… todayonly3arerunning(October1,2016).
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Providingelectricityduringthedailypeakbecameabigchallenge.
PeakSupplyGap
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Onesuccessfulstrategyhasbeentoroll-outmeaningfultime-of-useratesthatencourageusingelectricitywhenit’sabundantandavoidusingitwhenit’sscarce.
$$$$$ $
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Ideally,theresultswouldlooksomethinglikethis…
… buttherewasaHUGEobstacleintheway.
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Once-a-monththisgentlemanwalksthisneighborhood…
…readingmeterslikethis(patentedin1888).
Hesometimesusesbinoculars.
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Theelectricutilitycompanyknewexactlyhowmuchelectricityyouusedeachmonth.
Thisusedtobeimpressive.
Itwasthebestanyonecoulddo… for100years.
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Overthepast5years,Japanhasdoneanimpressivejobrollingoutsmartmetersthatwirelesslyreportconsumptionevery15to30minutes.
Nowthepriceofelectricitycanchangethroughouttheday…
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… higherinthemiddleofthedaywhengridsupplyisstruggling,loweratnightwhenthereisanexcessofcapacity.
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Time Rate(yen/kWh)
11PMà 7AM 11.827AMà 1PM 28.181PMà 4PM 53.164PMà 11PM 28.18
SummerRatesJulythroughSeptember
Nowakilowatt-hourcanvaryfromabout12¢tomorethan50¢overaday.
InthePacificNorthwest,wepayabout10¢.
(Todaytheyenistradingforabout102.8yen/dollar,so1yenisabout1cent.)
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SmartEnergyTransformation
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Pricesareagoodwaytogetpeople’sattention.
Butcreatingcoolproductscanbeamuchbetterwaytogo.
Q:What’sthereturn-on-investmentofyouriPhone?
A:What?
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InOctober,2011– 7monthsafterthedisaster– NissanshowedofftheirLeaf-to-Homeconceptsystematthebiggestconsumertradeshowoftheyear.
PVontheroofofthismodelhomechargesthecarwhenthesunshines.Whenthesungoesdown,powerflowsfromthecartothehome.Nogridneeded.
Pointmade.
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Dr.TohjiatTohokuUniversitywasthinkingthesamethingforhiswholelab.
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DanwasdelightednottobeinOregon,sohecouldhelpoutatthepump.
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SmartHomes
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Thissmarthomehasahomeenergymanagementsystem(HEMS)thatmanagesheat,cooling,andlightingaswellastheessentialJapanese-stylebath.
Thesehigh-qualityLEDsshownhereareexpectedtooutlastthehome,sotheyarehardwiredintothisfixturemakingitsmallerandmorebeautiful.
WhentheLEDgoesout,youreplacethewholefixture.Butbythenitmightbetimetoreplacethewholehouse.
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Beautyisstandardequipment.
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Theactioncharacterisoptional.
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April1st,2016
Thisisnotajoke.
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April1,2016,Japanderegulateditsretailelectricindustry.
ManypunditsintheU.S.thoughtwholesalederegulationshouldbethefirststep(IthinktheJapanesegovernmentthoughtsotoo).Buttheutilitiesfoughtbacksoitdidn’tworkoutthatway.
Thegoodnewsisthatwithsmartmeters,thenewelectricityretailersarecreatingsomereallyinterestingproductsandservices.Alotoftime-of-userateplanshaveemerged.
Themostinterestingprogramsofferadiscountforallowingtheutilitytocontrolyourairconditionerwhenyou’renotathome.
IntegratingEVchargingisnextontheagenda.
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SoftbankisJapan’s#1cellphoneserviceprovider.Theynowsellelectricity,too.
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Todayyoucanchoosefromhundredsofelectricityproviders– upsignificantlyfromjust1lessthanayearago.Conveniencestores,cellphoneserviceproviders,gasolinecompanies,travelcompanies,smalltowns.
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Sowhat?
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Buylow,sellhigh.Chargeoff-peak,dischargeon-peak.
Dynamicpricingisunlockingthevalueofbatterystorage–stationaryandmobile.
Batteriesaresoldasawaytosavemoney.And,bytheway,theyareveryusefulincaseofdisaster.
So….
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Grid(orHome)connectedelectricvehicles(V2GandV2H),plus….
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SmartHomes,plus…
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Meaningfulelectricitypricing,equals…
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Newbusinessopportunities,and…
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DisasterResilience.
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=GridConnectedEVs
SmartHomes
MeaningfulPrices
DisasterResilience
NewBusinesses
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DanBihn.com
DisasterResilienceisanaffordablebyproductofasmartenergyfuture.
“Fillitupwithsunshine,please.”