Transcript

DG AGRI DASHBOARD: DAIRY PRODUCTS Last update : 28.06.2018

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in EUR/100 kg

EU average quotations of main commodities

Butter Intervention priceSMP Intervention priceBUTTERSMPWMPCHEDDAR

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EU P

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+2.1% +1.2%

+6.0%

-5.0%-1.5%

-9.1%

-0.6%

+0.2%+2.4%

- 15%

- 10%

- 5%

+ 0%

+ 5%

+ 10%

EU Productions (Jan-Apr 2018 compared to Jan-Apr 2017)

Wo

rld

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ctio

ns

Wo

rld

Tra

de

USD

/Fee

d/E

ner

gy Feed / Energy quotations(evolution compared to the

previous 4 weeks )

Feed costs

Energy costs

- 4.7%

- 1.8 %

Qty in

ktons

%

2018

/17

Qty in

ktons

%

2018

/17

Qty in

ktons

%

2018

/17

Qty in

ktons

%

2018

/17

New Zealand 155 + 3% 110 - 7% 138 + 7% 493 + 11%

EU-28 67 + 1% 273 + 0% 280 + 8% 126 - 9%

United States 15 + 88% 122 + 13% 260 + 27% 17 + 86%

Australia 4 - 5% 54 - 5% 54 + 13% 25 + 34%

Belarus 22 + 1% 61 - 2% 28 - 2% 12 + 39%

Uruguay 3 + 0% 10 - 10% 2 - 57% 34 + 8%

Jan-Apr 2018

compared to 2017

MAIN EXPORTING THIRD COUNTRIES

BUTTER(OIL) CHEESE S.M.P. W.M.P.

Qty in

ktons

%

2018

/17

Qty in

ktons

%

2018

/17

Qty in

ktons

%

2018

/17

Qty in

ktons

%

2018

/17

Chinaup to

M ar 31 + 30% 27 - 5% 82 + 11% 216 + 10%

Algeriaup to

M ar 3 + 6% 6 - 6% 55 + 32% 78 - 11%

Mexicoup to

M ar 6 - 62% 31 - 3% 84 + 12% 1 +++

Russiaup to

M ar 14 - 47% 62 + 15% 21 - 30% 6 - 58%

Japan 3 + 150% 93 + 7% 19 + 73% 0 - 29%

United States 14 - 5% 52 - 9% 0 + 59% 2 - 68%

BUTTER(OIL) CHEESE S.M.P. W.M.P.Jan-Apr 2018

compared to 2017

MAIN IMPORTING THIRD COUNTRIES

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15 000

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1000

Ton

nes

EU - Cows' milk collected2015201620172018

Jan-Apr 2018/17 : + 2.1%

Sources : EUROSTAT, Reg. (EU) 2017/1185, Clal.it, USDA, Lto.nl, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Dairyaustralia, Dcanz, Global Trade Atlas,

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p

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in 1000 tonnes

Australian milk production

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

Jul-Apr 2017/18 compared to 2016/17 : + 3.5%

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in 1000

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NZ milk production

2014/15

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2017/18

Jun-Apr 2017/18 compared to 2016/17 : - 0.1%

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8250

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8750

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p

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in 1000 tonnes

U.S. milk production

2015201620172018

Jan-Apr 2018 compared to 2017 : + 1.3%

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EUR/100 kg

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equiv. Price (based on SMP and Butter prices)

* : provisional figures

EU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to May 2018*)

32.4

35.7 20

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0 k

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WEEKLY Milk Spot Prices- IT, Lodi -

2015

2016

2017

2018

39.5 €(24 Jun)

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WEEKLY Milk Spot Prices- NL -

2015

2016

2017

201837.0 €

(24 Jun)

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Ap

rJu

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Last update : 24.06.18

OIL : Europe Brent Spot Price(USD/Barrel)

74.87

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8 EUR

/10

0 k

gUS Milk (class II I adj 4.2% fat)

NZ Mi lk - (Fonterra, adj 4.2% fat & 3.35% prot)

EU Raw Milk price

Source :

31.1 32.6

30.1

US, NZ and EU milk prices up to April 2018

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rJu

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EUR / USD Exchange Rate

1.161

Last Update : 28.06.18

EU Oceania USA EU Oceania USA

Butter 6 742 5 688 5 212 - 1.1% - 0.4% - 1.6%

SMP 1 782 2 063 1 735 + 1.4% - 4.6% - 5.6%

WMP 3 318 3 200 3 505 + 1.0% - 1.9% + 1.0%

Cheddar 3 899 3 925 3 571 + 0.1% - 2.8% + 0.7%

Price in USD/Tonne

on 24.06.2018

% change

(15 days ago)

LATEST WORLD QUOTATIONS

in Tonnes 2016 2017 2018 in Tonnes 2016 2017 2018

Extra-EU 62 310 49 825 49 604 - 0% Extra-EU 253 930 272 799 273 024 + 0%

USA 5 153 8 105 7 805 - 4% USA 43 406 42 905 38 477 - 10%

Saudi Arabia 7 657 3 543 4 635 + 31% Japan 22 594 31 560 30 756 - 3%

Singapore 2 584 1 959 2 984 + 52% Switzerland 18 137 19 342 20 237 + 5%

in Tonnes 2016 2017 2018 in Tonnes 2016 2017 2018

Extra-EU 230 523 259 404 279 713 + 8% Extra-EU 130 977 138 694 125 635 - 9%

Algeria 32 613 37 240 56 974 + 53% Oman 18 857 14 190 23 232 + 64%

Egypt 19 870 12 471 20 589 + 65% Algeria 8 049 25 591 10 255 - 60%

China 19 794 28 100 20 174 - 28% China 6 222 7 912 7 231 - 9%

W.M.P.

EU Exports - Top 3 destinations in 2018Period : January-April

BUTTER CHEESE

S.M.P.

32.6Raw Milk €/100 kg

EU Price Evolution

since

- 2.7%

574BUTTER €/100 kg - 1.0%

153S.M.P. €/100 kg + 1.8%

283W.M.P. €/100 kg + 0.9%

336CHEDDAR €/100 kg + 0.5%

Compared to the previous 4 weeks

EU Prices

(week 25)

(week 25)

Apr-2018

Average price (USD/MT, FAS)

Anhydrous Milk Fat

-2.5%$ 6 060

Butter

+0.8%$ 5 611

Butter MilkPowder

n/rn/a

Cheddar

-3.6%$ 3 847

Lactose

+8.2%$ 769

Rennet Casein

-2.2%$ 4 898

Skim MilkPowder

-1.1%$ 2 003

Event 21419 June 2018

-1.2%

$ 3 481

Anhydrous Milk Fat

-2.5%$ 6 060

Butter

+0.8%$ 5 611

Butter MilkPowder

n/rn/a

Cheddar

-3.6%$ 3 847

Lactose

+8.2%$ 769

Rennet Casein

-2.2%$ 4 898

Skim MilkPowder

-1.1%$ 2 003

Whole MilkPowder

-1.0%$ 3 189

Event 21419 June 2018

-1.2%

$ 3 481

-

+ 7%

+ 73%

-

+ 2%

+ 3%

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- 14%

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1

23

0 50 100

BUTTER + OIL

CHEESE

S.M.P.

W.M.P.

WHEYPOWDER

CASEIN(ATE)S

CONDENSED

LACTOSE

Qty in '000 tonnes

2017

2018

9

31

8

5

24

29

48

34

27

32

11

7

22

32

36

28

0 100

% of EU

JAPAN IMPORTS (Jan-Apr 2018 compared to 2017)

back to DashboardNext

Wo

rld

Qu

ota

tio

ns

EU P

rice

s

Jan

01

32.6Raw Milk €/100 kg

EU Price Evolution since

- 2.7%

574BUTTER €/100 kg - 1.0%

153S.M.P. €/100 kg + 1.8%

283W.M.P. €/100 kg + 0.9%

336CHEDDAR €/100 kg + 0.5%

Compared to the

previous 4 weeks

EU Prices (week 25)

Apr-2018

Source : DG AGRI – Reg. 2017/1185 Art. 11 & 12

\\net1.cec.eu.int\AGRI\C\4\C5 DATA\5. CEREALES\DASHBOARD\Dashboard_Cereals_Blue.xlsx - 'Dashboard (2)'!W64

Source : DG AGRI – Reg. 2017/1185 Art. 12(a) - Annex II.4(a)

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EUR/100 kg

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equiv. Price (based on SMP and Butter prices)

* : provisional figures

EU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to May 2018*)

32.4

35.7

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Source : Clal.it

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WEEKLY Milk Spot Prices- IT, Lodi -

2015

2016

2017

2018

39.5 €(24 Jun)

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WEEKLY Milk Spot Prices- NL -

2015

2016

2017

201837.0 €

(24 Jun)

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i n EUR/100 kg

EU average quotations of main commodities

Butter Intervention priceSMP Intervention priceBUTTERSMPWMPCHEDDAR

Source : DG AGRI – Reg. 2017/1185 Art. 11 – Annex I.7

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\\net1.cec.eu.int\AGRI\C\4\C5 DATA\5. CEREALES\DASHBOARD\Dashboard_Cereals_Blue.xlsx - 'Dashboard (2)'!W64

Source : DG AGRI, USDA

EU Oceania USA EU Oceania USA

Butter 6 742 5 688 5 212 - 1.1% - 0.4% - 1.6%

SMP 1 782 2 063 1 735 + 1.4% - 4.6% - 5.6%

WMP 3 318 3 200 3 505 + 1.0% - 1.9% + 1.0%

Cheddar 3 899 3 925 3 571 + 0.1% - 2.8% + 0.7%

Price in USD/Tonne

on 24.06.2018

% change

(15 days ago)

LATEST WORLD QUOTATIONS

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Source : DG AGRI, LTO Nederland

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gUS Milk (class II I adj 4.2% fat)

NZ Mi lk - (Fonterra, adj 4.2% fat & 3.35% prot)

EU Raw Milk price

Source :

31.1 32.6

30.1

US, NZ and EU milk prices up to April 2018

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\\net1.cec.eu.int\AGRI\C\4\C5 DATA\5. CEREALES\DASHBOARD\Dashboard_Cereals_Blue.xlsx - 'Dashboard (2)'!W64

Source : European Central Bank

Sources : Feed : DG AGRI, Clal.it Energy : DG ENERGY

Source : Nasdaq

Feed / Energy quotations(evolution compared to the

previous 4 weeks )

Feed costs

Energy costs

- 4.7%

- 1.8 %

(week 25)

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

Ap

rJu

lO

ctJa

nA

pr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

rJu

lO

ctJa

nA

pr

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Jan

EUR / USD Exchange Rate

1.161

Last Update : 28.06.18

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Last update : 24.06.18

OIL : Europe Brent Spot Price(USD/Barrel)

74.87

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+2.1% +1.2%

+6.0%

-5.0%-1.5%

-9.1%

-0.6%

+0.2%+2.4%

- 15%

- 10%

- 5%

+ 0%

+ 5%

+ 10%

EU Productions (Jan-Apr 2018 compared to Jan-Apr 2017)

Source : EUROSTAT

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Source : EUROSTAT, Reg. (EC) No 479/2010 Art. 1(a)1

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15 000Ja

n

Feb

Mar

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EU - Cows' milk collected2015201620172018

Jan-Apr 2018/17 : + 2.1%

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1 100

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Au

g

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Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

in 1000 tonnes

Australian milk production

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

Jul-Apr 2017/18 compared to 2016/17 : + 3.5%

0

500

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2500

3000

3500

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

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c

Jan

Feb

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Ap

r

May

in 1000

tonnes

NZ milk production

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

Jun-Apr 2017/18 compared to 2016/17 : - 0.1%

7000

7250

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7750

8000

8250

8500

8750

Jan

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Mar

Ap

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Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

De

c

in 1000 tonnes

U.S. milk production

2015201620172018

Jan-Apr 2018 compared to 2017 : + 1.3%

Source : Dairyaustralia, Dcanz, USDA

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in Tonnes 2016 2017 2018 in Tonnes 2016 2017 2018

Extra-EU 62 310 49 825 49 604 - 0% Extra-EU 253 930 272 799 273 024 + 0%

USA 5 153 8 105 7 805 - 4% USA 43 406 42 905 38 477 - 10%

Saudi Arabia 7 657 3 543 4 635 + 31% Japan 22 594 31 560 30 756 - 3%

Singapore 2 584 1 959 2 984 + 52% Switzerland 18 137 19 342 20 237 + 5%

in Tonnes 2016 2017 2018 in Tonnes 2016 2017 2018

Extra-EU 230 523 259 404 279 713 + 8% Extra-EU 130 977 138 694 125 635 - 9%

Algeria 32 613 37 240 56 974 + 53% Oman 18 857 14 190 23 232 + 64%

Egypt 19 870 12 471 20 589 + 65% Algeria 8 049 25 591 10 255 - 60%

China 19 794 28 100 20 174 - 28% China 6 222 7 912 7 231 - 9%

W.M.P.

EU Exports - Top 3 destinations in 2018Period : January-April

BUTTER CHEESE

S.M.P.

Source : EUROSTAT

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-

+ 7%

+ 73%

-

+ 2%

+ 3%

-

- 14%

1

87

11

0

18

5

1

27

3

93

19

0

18

5

1

23

0 50 100

BUTTER + OIL

CHEESE

S.M.P.

W.M.P.

WHEYPOWDER

CASEIN(ATE)S

CONDENSED

LACTOSE

Qty in '000 tonnes

2017

2018

9

31

8

5

24

29

48

34

27

32

11

7

22

32

36

28

0 100

% of EU

JAPAN IMPORTS (Jan-Apr 2018 compared to 2017)

\\net1.cec.eu.int\AGRI\C\4\C5 DATA\5. CEREALES\DASHBOARD\Dashboard_Cereals_Blue.xlsx - 'Dashboard (2)'!W64

Source : GTA

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\\net1.cec.eu.int\AGRI\C\4\C5 DATA\5. CEREALES\DASHBOARD\Dashboard_Cereals_Blue.xlsx - 'Dashboard (2)'!W64

Source : GTA

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Qty in

ktons

%

2018

/17

Qty in

ktons

%

2018

/17

Qty in

ktons

%

2018

/17

Qty in

ktons

%

2018

/17

New Zealand 155 + 3% 110 - 7% 138 + 7% 493 + 11%

EU-28 67 + 1% 273 + 0% 280 + 8% 126 - 9%

United States 15 + 88% 122 + 13% 260 + 27% 17 + 86%

Australia 4 - 5% 54 - 5% 54 + 13% 25 + 34%

Belarus 22 + 1% 61 - 2% 28 - 2% 12 + 39%

Uruguay 3 + 0% 10 - 10% 2 - 57% 34 + 8%

Jan-Apr 2018

compared to 2017

MAIN EXPORTING THIRD COUNTRIES

BUTTER(OIL) CHEESE S.M.P. W.M.P.

Qty in

ktons

%

2018

/17

Qty in

ktons

%

2018

/17

Qty in

ktons

%

2018

/17

Qty in

ktons

%

2018

/17

Chinaup to

M ar 31 + 30% 27 - 5% 82 + 11% 216 + 10%

Algeriaup to

M ar 3 + 6% 6 - 6% 55 + 32% 78 - 11%

Mexicoup to

M ar 6 - 62% 31 - 3% 84 + 12% 1 +++

Russiaup to

M ar 14 - 47% 62 + 15% 21 - 30% 6 - 58%

Japan 3 + 150% 93 + 7% 19 + 73% 0 - 29%

United States 14 - 5% 52 - 9% 0 + 59% 2 - 68%

BUTTER(OIL) CHEESE S.M.P. W.M.P.Jan-Apr 2018

compared to 2017

MAIN IMPORTING THIRD COUNTRIES

GD

T

Au

cti

on

Au

cti

on

Average price (USD/MT, FAS)

Anhydrous Milk Fat

-2.5%$ 6 060

Butter

+0.8%$ 5 611

Butter MilkPowder

n/rn/a

Cheddar

-3.6%$ 3 847

Lactose

+8.2%$ 769

Rennet Casein

-2.2%$ 4 898

Skim MilkPowder

-1.1%$ 2 003

Event 21419 June 2018

-1.2%

$ 3 481

Anhydrous Milk Fat

-2.5%$ 6 060

Butter

+0.8%$ 5 611

Butter MilkPowder

n/rn/a

Cheddar

-3.6%$ 3 847

Lactose

+8.2%$ 769

Rennet Casein

-2.2%$ 4 898

Skim MilkPowder

-1.1%$ 2 003

Whole MilkPowder

-1.0%$ 3 189

Event 21419 June 2018

-1.2%

$ 3 481

Source : Globaldairytrade

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