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Interdisciplinary cooperation and systems modelling as means to
govern the anthropocene
Torbjörn Skytt, Søren Nors Nielsen, Erik Grönlund, Fredrik Ståhl, Anders Jonsson, Inga Carlman, Morgan Fröling
Ecotechnology and sustainable building, Mid-Sweden UniversityNielsen: Section for Sustainable Transitions, Department of Planning, Aalborg University, Denmark
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Solving large scale problems
• Problem formulation
• Importance to find a solution
• The way to carry through the solution
• CFC exchange to reduce ozone depletion
• Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (1979) (Acidification of low buffer soils and lakes in mainly Scandinavia)
• IPCC climate models convincing (most) people
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To be remembered
• Most environmental degrading is legal
• Sciences get more and more fragmented (post-normal science; Ravetz) (post-modernity; Beck)
• Dualism between human and nature (Carolyn Merchant and others)
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Integrated Assessment
Complex problem Analysis
Systems understanding
IntegratedAssessment
Communication/Interdisciplinarity Knowledge
Assumptions/Approximations
Control of societalsystem
Sustainability
Modelling Life CycleAssessment
EnvironmentalImpact Assessment
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Example: Supporting the governing ofregional development towards
sustainability
The county of Jämtland (Sweden) to be modelled concerning flows of material (carbon) and energy (exergy) thus finding the answer to the question: Is it possible to reach sustainability?
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ENERGY SECTOR
AGRICULTURE FORESTRYREINDEER HERDING
NATURE
WASTE
INDUSTRY/TRADE PUBLIC TOURISMPRIVATE
Sectorial division of regional activities
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Photo: Tor Lundberg Tuorda. Source: http://www.samer.se/1220
REINDEER HERDING
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INDUSTRY/TRADE
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HYDRO34,1 PJ
WIND2,1 PJ
BIOFUEL3,5 PJ
SOLAR<0,01 PJ
LIQUIDS5,8 PJ
ELECTRICITY36,9 PJ
HEAT3,1 PJ
TRANSPORT5,6 PJ
PUBLIC PRIVATE INDUST SERVICES TOURISM AGRICULT
925 TJ 1819 TJ 984 TJ 1417 TJ 632 TJ 306 TJ
271 TJ 1598 TJ 102 TJ 529 TJ 0 0
CAR TRUCK TRACTOR BUS SNOW MOBILE
OTHER
2160 TJ 2110 TJ 620 TJ 350 TJ 270 TJ 100 TJ
NETEXPORT30,8 PJ
INFRASTRUCTURE: 140 PJ(3 PJ/Y to be invested)
TOTAL ENERGY: 45,5 PJ
Example: Regional Energy sector
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SCENARIO A:INCR RENEWABLES
Sectorial effects
Export limit el.
Yes
No
Prices drop
Export more electricity to replace NR sources
Potential
Yes
No
Increase regional use of electricity
Increased transmission capacity needed
Ref to next slide
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TRANSPORT5,6 PJ
CAR TRUCK TRACTOR BUS SNOW MOBILE
OTHER
2160 TJ 2110 TJ 620 TJ 350 TJ 270 TJ 100 TJ
Potential
Yes
No Increased transmission capacity needed
150 TJ 30 TJ
Private: M€ 150 Govern.: M€ 20
Are there alternatives to such investments that give higher environmental long-term yield?
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Prof. Morgan Fröling in front of the MiUnphotovoltaic installation (ca 30 kWp)
Investment in photovoltaics ?
Simulations: http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/apps4/pvest.php
MiUn installation 24 MWh/Y
430 TJ
Private: M€ 150 Govern.: M€ 20
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Östersund 24 MWh/Y
Casablanca 50 MWh/Y
Simulations: http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/apps4/pvest.php
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Governing the Anthropocenemeans governing complexity…
• Clarify the problem as a model
• Clarify the decision tree, showing the parameters of the decision process
• Environmental laws, recommendations and subsidies have to be used to push long-term sustainability decisions Lunch
Veg. Meat Other