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ISEO SUMMERSCHOOL
23° June 2008
Mario Baldassarri
The World Economy Toward
Global Disequilibrium
Palgrave-MacMillan, London 2007
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Figure 1 - Terms of trade between developing non-oil producing countries and industrialized countries (1953-2006)
y = -0,5701x + 95,68R2 = 0,7564
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
`
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Figure 2 - Terms of trade between oil producing developing countries and industrialized countries (1953-2006)
y = 8,7901x + 44,395R2 = 0,4594
60
160
260
360
460
560
660
760
860
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
`
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Wolrd GDP Shares(2003)
55%45% north
south of w orld
Share of World Population(2003)
85%
15%
north
south of w orld
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Map 1: World with continents weighted by Population 2003
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Map 2: World with continents weighted by Agricultural Resources 2003
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Map 3: World with continents weighted by Mineral Resources 2001
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Map 4: World with continents weighted by Real GDP 2003
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Map 5: Word with continents weighted by Real GDP, projections for 2015
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Map 6: Word with continents weighted by Real GDP, projections for 2030
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Wolrd GDP Shares 2003
28%
23% 23%
26% Asian Countries
Europe-25
USA
Other countries
Wolrd GDP Shares 2030
12%
15%
50%
23% Asian Countries
Europe-25
USA
Other countries
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World GDP Shares (2030)
60%
40% USA, China, India
Other Countries
World PopulationShares(2030)
60%
40%USA, China, India
Other Countries
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Figure 3 - G8 and G20 from 2003 to 2030 (PPP)(Actual G8 from 47% to 29%; China from 13% to 34%)
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
30,00
35,00
2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Sh
ares
on
Wo
rld
Rea
l GD
P
China United States India Russian Federation Japan France United Kingdom Germany Italy Canada Argentina Australia Brazil Indonesia Mexico Saudi Arabia South Africa Korea, Republic of Turkey
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Figure 4: "New" G8, considering Europe-25 (PPP)
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
30,00
35,00
2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Shar
es o
n W
orld
Rea
l GD
P
China United States EU 25
India Russian Federation Japan
Korea, Republic of Brazil
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0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
shar
es o
n w
orld
GD
P
China Japan Italy Brazil South Africa United States France
Canada Indonesia Korea, Republic of India United Kingdom Argentina Mexico
Turkey Russian Federation Germany Australia Saudi Arabia
Figure 3a: G8 and G20 from 2003 to 2040 (2003$)
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0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Shar
es o
n wo
rld G
DP
China Japan Canada
Korea, Republic of India Russian Federation
United States EU 25
Figure 4a: the “new” G8 considering Europe-25 (2003$)
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Figure 4b: Discount rates (FED-ECB), European inflation rate (HICP),
Exchange rate Euro/Dollar
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
gen-
99
apr-9
9
lug-9
9
ott-9
9
gen-
00
apr-0
0
lug-0
0
ott-0
0
gen-
01
apr-0
1
lug-0
1
ott-0
1
gen-
02
apr-0
2
lug-0
2
ott-0
2
gen-
03
apr-0
3
lug-0
3
ott-0
3
gen-
04
apr-0
4
lug-0
4
ott-0
4
gen-
05
apr-0
5
lug-0
5
ott-0
5
-0,10
0,10
0,30
0,50
0,70
0,90
1,10
1,30
1,50
FED Funds Rate ECB Discount Rate HICP Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate
dic-05
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Figure 4c: Euro per Dollar (november 2003)
1,165
1,17
1,175
1,18
1,185
1,19
1,195
1,2
1,205
1,21
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1,40 1,30 1,20 1,10 1,00 Variations with respect to €/$ to
1,40
€/$ ratio
2005
GDP growth rate -0,05 0,40 0,86 1,32 1,77 1,82
Deficit/GDP ratio 3,98 3,79 3,59 3,39 3,17 -0,81
2006
GDP growth rate 1,22 1,54 1,89 2,28 2,72 1,50
Deficit/GDP ratio 3,93 3,53 3,10 2,65 2,17 -1,76
2007
GDP growth rate 1,62 ,87 2,12 2,40 2,69 1,07
Deficit/GDP ratio 3,71 3,20 2,66 2,10 1,50 -2,21
2008
GDP growth rate 1,57 1,80 2,04 2,30 2,59 1,02
Deficit/GDP ratio 3,51 2,91 2,28 1,62 0,92 -2,59
TABLE 1 - The effect of the super euro on growth and the deficitWith variations of the Euro/Dollar ratio determined by the reduction in interest rates
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BASE SIMULATION
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Figure 5a - US Current Account (% of GDP)BASE SIMULATION
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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Figure 5b - US Current Account ($ BN)BASE SIMULATION
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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Figure 6 - Yuan per DollarBASE SIMULATION
6
6,5
7
7,5
8
8,5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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Figure 7 - GDP growth rateBASE SIMULATION
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
United States Euro area China
Africa Latin America India
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Figure 8 - US Foreign debt($ BN)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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Figure 9 - Major foreign holders of Trasury securities
0,00
10,00
20,00
30,00
40,00
50,00
60,00
70,00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
% s
ha
re
Japan Mainland ChinaUK Caribeean Banking CenterTaiwan
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US DOLLAR
IPER DEVALUATION
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Figure 10 - Dollar per Euro
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE $ IPDEVAL
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Figure 11 - Yuan per Dollar
0
2
4
6
8
10
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE $ IPDEVAL
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Figure 12 - Yen per Dollar
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE $ IPDEVAL
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Figure 13 - US GDP growth rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE $ IPDEVAL
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Figure 14a - US Current Account (% of GDP)
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE $ IPDEVAL
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Figure 14b - US Current Account ($ BN)
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE $ IPDEVAL
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Figure 14c - US Foreign debt ($ BN)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE $ IPDEVAL
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Figure 14d - US CPI
01
23
45
67
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE $ IPDEVAL
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Figure 15 - China GDP growth rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE $ IPDEVAL
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Figure 16 - Euro area GDP growth rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE $ IPDEVAL
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Figure 17 - Africa GDP growth Rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE $ IPDEVAL
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Figure 18 - Latin America GDP growth rates
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE $ IPDEVAL
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EUROPEAN DOMESTIC DEMAND PUSH
PLUS EURO DEVALUATION
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Figure 19 - Dollar per Euro
-0,2
0,1
0,4
0,7
1
1,3
1,6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE EDD PUSH EDD PUSH + EURO DEVAL
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Figure 20 - Euro Area GDP growth rates
0
1
2
3
4
5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE EDD PUSH + EURO DEVAL EDD PUSH
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Figure 21 - Germany's GDP growth rates
-1-0,5
00,5
11,5
22,5
33,5
44,5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE EDD PUSH + EURO DEVAL EDD PUSH
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Figure 22 - France's GDP growth rates
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE EDD PUSH + EURO DEVAL EDD PUSH
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Figure 23 - Italy's GDP growth rates
-1-0,5
00,5
11,5
22,5
33,5
44,5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE EDD PUSH + EURO DEVAL EDD PUSH
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Figure 24a - Germany Deficit/GDP
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE EDD PUSH + EURO DEVAL EDD PUSH
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Figure 24b - CPI Germany
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE EDD PUSH EDD PUSH + EURODEVAL+ EURO DEVAL
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Figure 25a - France Deficit/GDP
-3,5
-3
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE EDD PUSH + EURO DEVAL EDD PUSH
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Figure 25b - CPI France
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE EDD PUSH EDD PUSH + EURODEVAL+ EURO DEVAL
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Figure 26a - Italy Deficit/GDP
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE EDD PUSH + EURO DEVAL EDD PUSH
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Figure 26b - CPI Italy
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE EDD PUSH EDD PUSH + EURODEVAL+ EURO DEVAL
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Figure 27 - US Current Account (% of GDP)
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE EDD PUSH +EURO DEVAL EDD PUSH
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EXCHANGE RATE ADJUSTMENT
PLUS CHINESE DOMESTIC PUSH
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Figure 28 - Yuan per Dollar
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE ERA
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Figure 29 - Dollar per Euro
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
BASE ERA
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Figure 30 - Yen per Dollar
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE ERA
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Figure 31 - US GDP growth rate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE ERA + CDP ERA
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Figure 32 - US Current Account (% of GDP)
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE ERA ERA + CDP
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Figure 33 - US Foreign debt ($ BN)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Base ERA ERA + CDP
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Figure 34 - US CPI
00,5
1
1,52
2,53
3,54
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE ERA ERA + CDP
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Figure 35a - Euro Area GDP growth rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE ERA ERA + CDP
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Figure 35b - EURO AREA CPI
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE ERA ERA + CDP
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Figure 36 - Africa GDP growth rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE ERA ERA + CDP
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Figure 37 - Latin America GDP growth rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE ERA ERA + CDP
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Figure 38 - China GDP growth rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BASE ERA ERA + CDP