InvestigatingthechallengesofelectricmobilityandV2GintheNordic
GERARDOZARAZUA DERUBENS ANDLANCENOEL, RESEARCHERS, AARHUSUNIVERISTYFEBRUARY1, 2018NORDICELECTRICVEHICLESUMMIT2018
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Scopeofstudy17citiesacrossthefiveNordicCountries:Denmark,Iceland,FinlandSwedenandNorway
257expertsinterviewedof201organisations
~5000surveyrespondents,50focusgroupparticipantsand126cardealershipvisits
Team:alsoincludesBenjaminSovacool (Lead)andJohannesKester
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● OEMS and Transport: Nissan, Renault, BMW, Volvo, Volkswagen, NEVS, Linkker (bus), HSL, Ruter;● Government: 10 Federal Ministries, 17 Municipalities (Kommunes)● Utilities & Operators: Fortum, Virta, Clever, E.ON, Vattenfall, Statkraft, ON Energy, ABB, Elenia, Schneider Electric● TSO and DSO: Statnet, Energinet, Fingrid, Landsnet, Troms Kraft Nett● Industry: Nordpool, Siemens, Nuvve, PostNord, ASKO, IBM, Microsoft, PostNorge● Associations: Dansk Elbil Alliance, Norsk elbilforening, Norsk Petroleuminstitutt, PowerCircle, Finnish Energy● Research & Consulting: Bellona, Insero, Concito, Ramboll, VTT, Tekes, Sito, NTNU, Enova, Poyry.
CentralbarriersforEVs•Range - Howmuchdowereallyneed/want?•PriceoftheEVs- highercosts,lackofsubsidies,taxstructure•ConsumerwillingnessandknowledgeofEVs- Teslaand…?•OEMscomparativelyworsebusinesscase(toconventionalcars)•Charginginfrastructurechickenandeggproblem?•Fragmentationofpolicy&development(technologicaluncertainty)•Lackofpoliticalmotivationandwill
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-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
RangePrice
PublicChargingMentalBbarriers
ApartmentChargingTaxationofEVsGridIntegration
WeatherConditionsPoliticalwill
ChargingtimeHome,workchargingTechnologybarriers
BatteryenvmtlimpactBatteryDegradation
PublicchargingstandardsOEMProductioncapacity
RawMaterialsModelType
Procurementstrategy
Currentlyabarrier Explicitlynotabarrier Soonwon'tbeabarrier
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EVnexus&Brandrecognition
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10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
NordicStock ExpertMentions SurveyMentions FocusGroupMentions
Tesla Nissan VW BMW Renault Opel Hyundai Kia
Adealershipbottleneck?•CardealershipsposeasignificantbarriertoEVs• currentEVincentivesareunsubstantialvs.petrol/dieselvehicles(exceptw/Norway)
• lackofbusinessviabilityofEVsinrelationtopetrolanddieselvehicles
•OutsideofNorwayonlyin2.9%ofcustomerswould’veoptedforanEVoption
•In77%visitsthesalespersondidnotdiscusstheexistenceoftheirbrand’sEV
•Governmentandindustrysignalingandpromotionareevidentatthepointofsale
• significantdifferencesinmarketconditions
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InfluencingthelikelihoodofEVpurchase•Themostsignificantfactors= dealer’sorientationtosellEVsandthedisplayedEVknowledge
•EVsalesincreasewhensalespersonsincludetheminsalesconversations
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OptionsforimprovementGovernmentlevel Industry- businesslevel
• ReducethenetgapbetweenEVsandICEVs,asw/outitthereisnoincentivefordealerstosellthemoreexpensiveEVs
• RobusttrainingschemesthatimprovesEVknowledgeandconfidenceofselling
• Incentivestotargetcapitalcostasopposedtocostofownership
• OperationalisedEVsaleprocessesthatimprovesellingtoolsanddeliverytimesofproducts
• Incentivestorevisecommissionandcompensationschemestoincreasethesalespersonnel willingnesstoengagew/EVs
• Linkagebetweencustomerandsalespersonsknowledgecampaigns(marketing<->training)
DefiningV2G•Vehicle-to-Grid(V2G)isatechnologythatconnectsEV’sbatterytoprovidebidirectionalstoragetotheelectricitygrid
•RequirescommunicationbetweenEVs,aggregatorandTSO/DSOs,andbidirectionalpower
•CanprovideavarietyofservicesonaTSOlevel(frequencycontrol,demandresponse),aDSOlevel(congestionreduction,peakshaving),orothers(V2Home,V2X,renewableintegration)
•CanalsoprovideEVownersnewrevenuestream,reducecostofownership
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Expert’sBenefitsofV2G
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•Comparedtotheliterature,expertstendedtofocusmorerenewableenergy,controlledchargingandvehicle-to-home
•TendedtofocuslessincomparisononTSO/DSOservicesthatwouldprovidedstrongereconomicincentivestotheconsumer
•Mismatchbetweenliteratureandexperts:differenceofopinionsorlackofknowledgeofthevalueofservices?
3%
3%
3%
4%
7%
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23%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
BETTERUSEOFEVS
NEWTECHNOLOGYTOEXPORT
DISCONNECTFROMGRID
BETTERTHANOTHERSTORAGES
ENERGYARBITRAGE
EMERGENCYBACKUP
ECONOMICSAVINGS
DSOSERVICES
TSOSERVICES
VEHICLE-TO-HOME
CONTROLLEDCHARGING
RENEWABLEENERGYINTEGRATION
PercentofExperts
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ExpertBarriersofV2G
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7.0%
9.7%
10.1%
12.3%
12.8%
14.5%
15.0%
15.0%
16.7%
27.8%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
AGGREGATION,COORDINATION
ELECTRICITYMARKETSTRUCTURE
INSUFFICIENTEVVOLUME
BATTERYDEGRADATION
INCREASEDCOST/COMPLEXITY
UNCERTAINTYANDSKEPTICISM
POORBUSINESSCASE/MODEL
UNNECESSARYHERE
CONSUMERRESISTANCE
PREFERENCEFORTEHCNOLOGIES
PercentofExperts
•AkeybarriertoV2GintheNordicsisthecompetitionwithhydroandthestabilityofthegrid• ParticularlyinNorway,IcelandandSweden,wherehydrocapacitiesobviatetheneedforcertainV2Gservices(butmaybenotall)
•Skepticismwasabound:• Expertswereskepticalofthetechnology• AlsoskepticalthatconsumerswouldacceptV2Grestrictions
• Skepticalthebusinesscasewasviable
•Moretechnicalbarriersincludebatterydegradationandmarketregulations
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CustomerOpinionsofV2G•V2GmayprovideanimportantincentiveforconsumerstoadoptEVs,butlackofknowledgeseemedtobemostimportantbarrier
•Ofthe50focusgroupparticipants,noneknewofV2G,andonlyahandfulhadsomeideaofsmartgridsgenerally
•Similarly,V2GcapacitywasrankedmuchlowerinimportancethanotherEVattributesinoursurvey(e.g.rangeranked4.4outof5,batteryliferanked4.6,butV2Gonlyranked3.6)
•Ontheotherhand,uponrealizingthepotentialrevenuesofV2G,manywereinstantlyconvinced.Forexample,onefocusgroupparticipantasked:
“Wait,youwouldbegettingmoneyforit?Oh,sureIwoulddoV2G.”
• Consumersbelievedthebarrierswouldbebatterylifeandthefreedomtouseyourcar.Asanotherparticipantsaid:
“Planningisahugedownside…Ithinkitgoesupagainsthumannature.That’snotfreedom.”
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V2GPolicyImplications•Vehicle-to-gridneedstobebettercommunicatedandprovenasatechnologytobothexpertsandconsumers• Valuepropositionneedstobeclearandstrong,especiallyincountrieswithhydro
•ManyconsumerswereinterestedintherevenuesandsocialbenefitsofV2G,butallwereignorantofthetechnologyspecifics.Manyalsowereworriedaboutperceivedlossoffreedom• V2Gshouldbebettercommunicatedthroughinformationandeducation• V2Gprogramsneedstobeflexibleandintuitiveformassadoption– planningshouldbeeasy
•Moretechnicalpolicyimplications,suchaselectricitymarketregulations,areunder-recognizedbyconsumersandexperts,butstillneedtobeaddressed
•Overall,V2GneedsmoresupporttobecomemoreclearinthemindsofbothexpertsandconsumersintheNordics
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GerardoZarazuadeRubensMobile:+45-93508426
LanceNoelMobile:[email protected]