INTRODUCTION TOINTRODUCTION TO
RISK ANALYSISRISK ANALYSIS
Maximilian P.O. Baumann & KarlMaximilian P.O. Baumann & Karl--Hans Hans ZessinZessinPostgraduate Studies in International Animal Health
Participatory Risk Analysis Course, ILRI – BMZ Project, 2008
II SETTING THE SCENESETTING THE SCENECHANGES IN ‚VETERINARY‘ / FOOD SAFETY SECTORS:
- global, WTO-SPS- European Union (EU)
EUROPEAN UNION (EU): - „Farm-to-Fork“ Policy
-RISK ANALYSIS (principles):
- RA model types- Model parameters:
- Principle constraints
IIII RISK ANALYSIS PROPERRISK ANALYSIS PROPERHISTORY/DEFINITIONS:
- zero vs. acceptable risk– „Risk“, „Hazard“, ...
COMPONENTS OF RA (OIE, FAO/WHO, CAC)
QUALITATIVE/QUANTITATIVE RA
PATHWAYS / event and faulttrees: qualitative RA: Example Parma Ham
quantitative RA: microbiological RA; Different examples and exercises
VARIABILITY, UNCERTAINTY, DISTRIBUTIONS:- way to quantitative RA
Factors driving changes in food safety systems
TRENDS IN THE FOOD INDUSTRY
AddedValue
Improving manufacturingefficiencyBatch-continuousReduce waste
FoodserviceEating out Snacking
Clean labelMilder processing
1970 1980 1990 2000
10 years 2 years
ProductNutritional sciencesuccessfully linkednutritional habit to health
‚Naturalness‘increasingly important in relation to health/vitality
Consumer morequality conscious
201520
‚MAKE‘
‚SERVICE‘
‚CARE‘ProcessProcess
Speed of product innovation (half-life of product innovation)
Animal Protein Trade
Rabobank, 2003Poultry trade flow Beef trade flow Pork trade flow
Russian Federation
USA
Brazil
Canada
Mexico
Japan
Argentina
India
Australia
Source: Rabobank and Dutch Dairy Board (2006); Achterbosch: IPC Issue Brief 24, August 2007
WORLD DAIRY MAP
INCOME TRENDS AND MEAT CONSUMPTION
2015: World‘s food system must feed an additional 750 million people
UNDERNOURISHED POPULATION, 2004: 840 Million
SELF CONSUMPTION
DOMESTIC MARKETS
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
LINKING SMALLHOLDERS TO MARKETS
Subsistenceproducerswith smalllandholdings
Agricultural householdsproducing formarkets, also forsubsistence
Commercial producers, competitive
Source: modified after Orden et al. 2006
PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE INSTITUTIONS
MARKET ACCESS FOOD REGULATION
Source: Trienekens, 2006
GLOBALIZATION
Winners ?
Loosers ?
„GLOBALIZATION“
‚The increasing world-wideintegration of markets forgoods, services (people?) and capital‘
? The integration of economic, cultural, political, and socialsystems across geographicalboundaries ?
GLOBALIZATION (1)
1944
1945
GATT: 1947
GLOBALIZATION (2)
GLOBALIZATION (3)
1947: GATT: Tariffs (steel, coal): Geneva: 1947, Annecy: 1949; Torquay: 1950/51; Geneva: 1955:56; Dillon-Round: 1961/62; Kennedy-Round: 1964/67; Tokyo-Round: 1973/79
1986 - 1995: Uruguay Round: AGRICULTURE FULLY INCLUDED “main agreement on animal health”
147 Member Countries, 90% of WORLD TRADE
1995: WORLD TRADE ORGANISATION (WTO)
GLOBALISATION (4)
World Trade Organization (WTO):
More free and safer trade by reduction of tariffs (taxes) and Reduction of ´non-tariff barriers` (! Animal Diseases, Sanitary Controls !)
Integration of Nations in “Free Trade Areas / Common Markets”
WTO rules can be enforced through sanctions. This givesthe WTO more power than many other international bodies.
The WTO's authority even eclipses national governments?
1999: Seattle 2001: Quatar
- Dohar Development Agenda2003: Cancun2005: Hong Kong
2008: failure of the Dohar Round
WTO
SPS: facilitate tradewhile safeguarding human, animaland plant health
Manifestation of multilateral trade facilitation and liberalization
Rule-based world trade
Cancun Ministerial Conference:
Begin elimination of farm subsidies of developed countries
The Need For International RegulationThe 1920 Rinderpest outbreak in Belgium highlightedthe need to have an international body to regulate tradein animals and animal products
In 1924 the Office International des Epizooties (OIE) was created
- 28 countries
Rinderpest Belgium: zebus, originating from India and destinedfor Brazil, transiting via the port of Antwerp
WORLD ORGANISATION FOR ANIMAL HEALTH
Animal Health, Zoonoses, AnimalWelfare
OIE is the standard settingorganisation for animal health, zoonoses and animal welfarein international trade
OIE Animal Health Code contains guidelines for importrisk analysis. Structureequivalent to import-scenario(release, exposure, consequence)
CODEX ALIMENTARIUS COMMISSION (CAC)
Food Safety
CAC is the standard settingbody for microbiological hazardsin international trade with foods
CAC guidelines describequantitative microbiological riskassessment and the principles of risk analysis: Differenciation in hazard-identification, hazardcharacterisation, exposureassessment, risk characterisation
TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS: World Trade Organisation (WTO): The WTO Agreement on the Applicationof Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures(SPS Agreement) was drawn up to ensure that countriesapply measures to protect human andanimal health (sanitary measures) andplant health (phytosanitary measures)
CONCERNS/‘THREATS‘
Food safety/agricultural health measures: applied in discriminatory manner
Dev. countries: Lack of administrative, technical, and other capacities
Costs incurred to reach compliance (undermine com-parative advantage of dev.countries
Institutional weaknesses and compliance costs weakenweaker economic players (smallercountries, enterprises, farmers)
WTO/SPS
Demands on veterinary services infrastructure: functionality throughout the food chain
PURPOSEPURPOSE OF THE SPS AGREEMENT
SANITARY AND PHYTOSANITARY (SPS) AGREEMENT
(Article 5.1)
„Members shall ensure that their sanitary orphytosanitary measures are based on an risk
assessment, as appropriate to the circumstances, of the risks to human, animal or plant life or health, taking into account risk assessment techniques
developed by the relevant international organizations.“
SANITARY AND PHYTOSANITARY (SPS) AGREEMENT(Article 5.1 – 5.3)
Article 5.1
Article 5.2
Article 5.3
measure has to be based on a riskassessment
what to take into account(available scientific evidence, etc.)
for animal and plant health, whateconomic factors to take intoaccount
LIMITSLIMITS SET BY SPS AGREEMENT
EUROPEAN UNION (EU)EU = single market
27 countries, 497 Mill. consumers164 Mill. ha agricultural areaJobs in agriculture: 9,5 Mill. full-time
jobsFood- & Beverage Industry:
15% of GNP Food Industry:
3rd largest industrial sector; 2,6 Mio. employees
EU
SELF-SUFFICIENCY
% self-sufficiency
100
EUSelf-Sufficiency
Example: Germany
Grains
Sugar
Beef
Milk
Pork
Eggs
Poulty meat
Mutton
Vegetables
Fruits
0 50% 100% 150%
EUWorld biggest importer of foodstuff(61 billion €/year) - 36 billion € from develop. countries= net importer of agricultural products
Imports at zero/low tariff (Generalised Preference System (GSP))
Main EU agricultural imports
EU
MAJOR WORLD TRADERS AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (Average 2000-2002)
World 2nd largest exporter of food products(61 bill. €/year) = Net-Exporter of processed food products
EU
CAP fundamental reforms (2007 – 2013)
Common Agricultural Policy (CAP): -costs 50 billion €/year= 43% of total EU budget; 2013: 33%= € 2/week/citizen
Directorate General Health and ConsumerProtection (DG SANCO)- integrates food safety, animalhealth, animal welfare, plant health= ‘farm to fork’ strategy
EUFOOD SAFETY
2004: REJECTIONS ACCORDING TO IDENTIFIED RISK
SOURCE: EU Rapid Alert System For Food and Feed (RASFF, 2005
EUCONSUMER SURVEYS
Foods: safe?
Foods: good quality?
Foods: healthy?
Foods: reasonable price?
Farm animals: well treated?
Information about production and processing?
35%
33%
26%22%
19%
22%
Difference in perceptions associated with a variety of potential food hazards
Source: Fife-Schaw and Rowe, 2000
EUIMPORT OF FOOD
Imported product standards at least equivalent to those for trade between EU member state
o comply with EU food law
or
o conditions recognised as equivalent
DG HEALTH AND CONSUMER PROTECTION (DG SANCO):
„FARM TO FORK“-POLICY, RISK ANALYSIS-METHOD
EUPOLICY (1) (http://europa.eu.int/comm/food)
2000: WHITE BOOK FOOD SAFETY
2002: Regulation 178/2002:
General principles and requirements of food law
Primary production included in food safety(‚stable to table‘ concept) Process control priority over end-product control(HACCP, GMP, GVP, QM-systems)Responsibility for food safety with producers at eachproduction stageObligatory self-controls by producers themselves
Government: ‚Control of (self-) controls‘
EUPOLICY (2)
2004: Regulations 852/853/854/2004:
Organisation of official controls on products of animal origin (=‚hygiene package‘)
(Start 2006)
Dramatic effects on primary production: complete information flow along food chains(forwards and backwards)
EUPOLICY (3)
Brucellosis, Tuberculosis, Trichnellosis, Echinococcosis, Salmo-nellosis, Campylobacteriosis, verotoxin-forming E. coli, Listeriosis
Directive 99/2003: monitoring of zoonoses and zoonotic agents
Regulation 2160/2003: control of salmonella and other specified food-borne zoonotic agents
Animal feed manufacturers
Primary Production (FARM) e.g. breeding, rearing, fattening
Transport of animals, of raw products
Slaughtering and processing
Transport of processed products
Wholesale
Transport of processed products
Retail e.g restaurants, cateringservices, food stores
Consumer (FORK)
RenderingPlants
= GOLD
STANDARD
Total transpa-rency:
- Animal ID
- Surveill. (sampling)
- ....
RISK MGMT.
„FARM TO FORK“ APPROACH
I “FARM TO FORK”: FOOD CHAIN: technical
Primary-production
Slaughterabc
Processingabc
Retail, tradeabc
Consumptionxy
Food safety
Curativepractice
“FARM TO TABLE”: FOOD-CHAIN: technical
Primary Production
Slaughterxx
Processingxx
Retail, Trade
Consumptionxy
Food-Safety
CurativePractice
Primary Production
Slaughterxx
Processingxx
Retail, Trade
Consumptionxy
OLD:
Inspection: check only of effect, not of mechanismspossible
“FARM TO FORK”: FOOD CHAIN: Quality Cascade
Primary-Production
Slaughterabs
Processingabc
Retail, Trade abc
Consumptionxy
Primary-Production
Slaughterabc
Pro-cessing
Retail, Trade
Consumptionxy
NEW APPROACH:
= Quality demands= Quality supply
Intervention: permits Risk-Management
Host environment of the food supply chain regarding emerging risks
Science, Technology & Industry
new scientificknowledge,
new technolopgies, processing & distribution
Science, Technology & Industry
new scientificknowledge,
new technologies, processing & distribution
Nature & Environment
climate, pollution, natural
Government & Politics
new legislation, supervision/enforcement,
trade barriers, food terrorism
Consumer Behaviour
perception, diet,
attitude
Culture & Demography
lifestyle, mobility,
education, ageing
Public Health & Welfare
infrastructure, lifestyle, diseases
Agriculture
plant & animal health, production systems,
biodiversity
Economy
trade, supply & demand,
wealth & income level, globalisation
Information
media, communication interest,
expert rolesFOOD CHAIN
Source: Voedsel en Waren Autoriteit, The Hague, 2005
Risk assessment on Campylobacter jejuni in chicken products in chicken slaughter-house/consuminghousehold (Denmark, 2001)
NEED FOR AN INTEGRATED APPROACHFeed
Manufacturing
Farm
Slaughter
Retail
Consumers
Numerous possible routes for introduction and transmission of pathogens
Coordinated multi-disciplinary and inter-sectoral response necessary
Levels of national and interna-tional collaboration/coordination:
- Microbiology - Epidemiology
-Veterinary - Food Hygiene - Medical
-Government - Industry - Research -NGO - etc
MEAT CHAIN AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS
MEAT CHAIN
Environment
Animal feeds
Animals on farm
Transport
Markets/lairage
Abbatoir
Processing
Storage & retail
Domestic, tradeand retail catering
CONSUMERS
Source: Buncic, S., 2006
MEAT CHAIN AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS
MEAT CHAIN
Environment
Animal feeds
Animals on farm
Transport
Markets/lairage
Abbatoir
Processing
Storage & retail
Domestic, tradeand retail catering
CONSUMERS
Source: Buncic, S., 2006
CHEMICAL AGENTS
Industry Heavy metals, PAHs, Radionuclides
AgriculturePesticides, Myxcotoxins, Phytotoxins,
Fertilizers
Veterinary MedicineDrugs, Growth promoters
Tranquillizers
Preservatives, additives, biogenic amines
Packaging compoundsPlasticisers, Inks
MEAT CHAIN AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS
MEAT CHAIN
Environment
Animal feeds
Animals on farm
Transport
Markets/lairage
Abbatoir
Processing
Storage & retail
Domestic, tradeand retail catering
CONSUMERS
Source: Buncic, S., 2006
CHEMICAL AGENTS
Industry Heavy metals, PAHs, Radionuclides
AgriculturePesticides, Myxcotoxins, Phytotoxins,
Fertilizers
Veterinary MedicineDrugs, Growth promoters
Tranquillizers
Preservatives, additives, biogenic amines
Packaging compoundsPlasticisers, Inks
BIOLOGICAL AGENTS (bacteria, viruses, parasites)
Water- and soil-bornepathogens
Rodent-, bird- and insect-borne pathogens
Vertical and horizontal transmission of pathogens
Horizontal transmission of pathogens
Faecal and cross-contamination
Cross-contamination, re-contamination, human-
borne pathogens, micro-bial growth
FOOD CHAIN: Tools
PROCESSING
PRE-HARVEST
TRANSPORT
HARVEST
RETAIL
CONSUMERS
INTEGRATED MONITORING – the food-chain approach -
Active monitoring: all stages of chain
Samples representative of population
Harmonized laboratory methodsand quality assured
No. tests sufficient to produceprecise measure of prevalence
Data pooling, coordinated analysisand reporting
Non-Trade concerns („NTBs“):PROCESS RATHER THAN PRODUCT REQUIREMENTS- Animal welfare
- Environmental protection
- Food Safety (GMOs)
- Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)= transparent business operation
workers rightspromotion of environment
THE WAY AHEAD?
Package of safety, quality, environmental, social, ethical standards
COMPLEXITY of standard setting for high-valuefoods will increase