Download - Interpretation of transport indicators
Interpretation of transport indicators
Bruno Lapillonne, Vice President, Enerdata
Reunión Técnica de Trabajo del Proyecto BIEE24 – 26 de febrero, 2014, San José, Costa Rica
Out
line
1. Global trends2. Consumption by mode3. Road consumption by type of vehicle
3
Objectives:o To analyze consumption trends compared economic growth,
and identify homogeneous periodso To point out the importance of the different modeso To analyze road transport energy consumption in relation
with the increase in the stock of cars or road vehicleso Content
o Transport energy consumption, GDP and transport intensity (index, 2000= 100)
o Consumption by mode (2 chart pies 2000 et 2010) o Road energy consumption, GDP and stock of cars (index,
2000= 100))
Global trends: objectives and content
Global trends in transport sector
4Medener
Identification of homogeneous periods : 2 periods 2000-2008 and 2008-2010Transport intensity defined in relation to the GDP as all sectors contribute to transport consumption
Energy consumption trends in transport, GDP and transport intensity: Chile
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Indi
ce 2
000=
100
Consumo Energía Transporte GDP Intensidad Consumo
Transport energy consumption drivers and intensity
5Medener
Since 2008 transport energy consumption is decreasing although GDP is growing; this contrasts with the previous period
The ratio transport energy consumption per unit of GDP is decreasing especially since 2008
2000-2008 2008-2011 1990-2011-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Energy consumption GDP Transport intensity
Trends in energy consumption, GDP and transport intensity (Chile)
76%
9%
15%
0%
2000
80%
9%
11%
0%2010
Caminero
Aéreo
Marítimo
Ferroviario
Transport consumption by mode : case of Chile
Distribution of transport consumption by mode (Chile)
Road is dominant with 80% of total transport energy consumption in 2010 Increasing share of road transport Significant share for maritime transport but decreasing
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Indi
ce 2
000=
100
Consumo Energía Caminero GDP Stock de vehículos
Road transport global trends: case of Chile
Road energy consumption trends in transport, GDP and stock of cars: Chile
Identification of homogeneous periods : 2 periods 2000-2004 and 2004-2011 to be used for the rest of the presentation
8Medener
Road energy consumption trends in transport, GDP and stock of cars: Chile
2000-2004 2004-2011 2000-2011
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Consommation du transport routier PIB Parc automobile
Since 2006, the stock of cars is growing faster than the GDP,The consumption of road transport is increasing twice slower than the stock of cars.
Out
line
1. Global trends2. Consumption by mode3. Road consumption by type of vehicle
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Objectives:o To analyze energy efficiency trends by mode (road, air)o To analyze the impact of the change in the composition of
the road vehicles fleet on the average specific consumption of road transport
o Content:a. Specific consumption of road transport (per vehicle and per
car equivalent) : in aggregation and by type of fuel b. Specific consumption of air and rail transport (histograms
2000 and 2010)c. Specific consumption of road transport per vehicle
Consumption by mode: objectives and content
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Toe/
vehí
culo
Vehículos a gasolina Vehículos a diesel Promedio
Trends in specific consumption of road transport : Chile
Consumption of road transport per vehicleSlight decrease in average specific consumption of road transport per vehicleStrong decrease for diesel vehicles, partly linked to the dieselisation of light vehicles and cars (increase share of diesel cars from 1% in 2000 to 11 in 2011)
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Consumption of road transport per vehicle and per car equivalent to assess overall energy efficiency of road transport
For countries that do not have data breaking down the consumption of road transport by type of vehicle, the consumption of road transport per vehicle is not a good indicator of energy efficiency as it may be influenced by a shift in te composition of the vehicle stock;
For instance, if the share of light vehicles (e.g. motorcycles for gasoline or cars for diesel increases this will decrease the average consumption per vehicle all things being equal... and this is not linked to energy efficiency improvements.
To clean the consumption of road transport per vehicle from this structural effect, calculation of a unit consumption of road transport per equivalent car , the variation of which will be independent on the change in the composition of the stock of vehicles.
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Calculation of the average consumption of road transport per car equivalent For countries that do not have data breaking down the consumption of road
transport by type of vehicle, calculation of a unit consumption of road transport per equivalent car
This indicator relates the total consumption of road transport to a fictitious stock of vehicles, measured in terms of numbers of equivalent cars.
Converting the actual stock of vehicles into a stock of equivalent cars is based on a coefficient reflecting the difference in the average yearly consumption between each type of vehicle and a car:o If, for instance, a motorcycle consumes 0.2 toe/year on average and a
car 1 toe/year, one motorcycle is considered to be equivalent to 0.2 cars.o In the same way if light vehicles and trucks consume on average 5 toe/
year each vehicle for road transport of goods is equivalent to 5 cars
Unit consumption per vehicle: effect of changes in the composition of the vehicle stock: Bolivia
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201050
60
70
80
90
100
110
consumption per vehicle Consumption per car equivalent
In Bolivia, the consumption of road transport per car equivalent is decreasing more rapidly than the consumption of road transport per vehicle (-6.4%/year compared to -4.4%/year) ; this is due to a greater share of light vehicles in the stock that contributed to reduce the consumption per vehicle by 2%/year ; the consumption per car equivalent gives a better proxy of energy efficiency in road transport, which can be estimated at 4.4%/year
energy efficiency indicator
Effect of change in the composition of the vehicle stock
Unit consumption per vehicle: effect of changes in the composition of the vehicle stock : Chile
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201070
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
consumption per vehicleConsumption per car equivalent
In Chile, the consumption of road transport per car equivalent is decreasing slightly less rapidly than the consumption of road transport per vehicle (-2%/year compared to -2.3%/year) ; this is due to a greater share of light vehicles in the stock that contributed to reduce the consumption per vehicle by 0.3%/year ; the consumption per car equivalent gives a better proxy of energy efficiency in road transport , which can be estimated at 2%/year
Unit consumption per vehicle: effect of changes in the composition of the vehicle stock : Costa Rica
16
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
201060
70
80
90
100
110
120
consumption per vehicleConsumption per car equivalent
In Costa Rica, the consumption of road transport per car equivalent is decreasing less rapidly than the consumption of road transport per vehicle (-0.5%/year compared to -1.9%/year) ; this is due to a greater share of light vehicles in the stock that contributed to reduce the consumption per vehicle by 1.4%/year ; the consumption per car equivalent gives a better proxy of energy efficiency in road transport , which can be estimated at 0.5%/year
Air transport
0
50
100
150
200
250
-
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Consumo Específico (Toe/Pax) Indice Pasajeros (2000=100)
Specific consumption of air transport and passenger traffic (Chile)
The specific energy consumption of air transport remained on average rather steady until 2008 and decreased rapidly since then;
Trend in this specific consumption is usually negatively correlated with the traffic (i.e. rapid decrease with a rapid growth in traffic and vice versa)
Out
line
1. Global trends2. Consumption by mode3. Road consumption by type of vehicle4. Indicators of modal shift
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Objectives:o To show the weight of different type of vehicles in road
consumptiono To analyze specific energy consumption trends for cars and
truckso Contents:
o Specific consumption of cars:o liter/100 km for new carso liter/100 km for cars (average stock of cars)
o Specific consumption of trucks
Consumption of road transport by type of vehicle: objectives and content
Distribution of road transport energy consumption by type of vehicle
39%
20%
25%
15%1%
2010
cars
light & duty
trucks
Buses
two wheels
Distribution of road transport energy consumption by type of vehicle (country x)
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20095.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
average new
l/100
km
Specific consumption of cars (EU average)
Specific consumption of new cars: Chile
Source: CV (Centro de Control y Certificación Vehicular), de acuerdo al protocolo internacionalmente aceptado ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation).
Out
line
1. Global trends2. Consumption by mode3. Road consumption by type of vehicle4. Indicators of modal shift
Decreasing share of non-road goods traffic in almost all the countries
Increasing share of rail and water for 8 countries since 2000 (Sweden, UK, Finland, Denmark, Norway, Spain, Portugal and Greece)
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Italy
Fran
ce
Pola
nd EU
Ger
man
y
Net
herla
nds
UK
Spai
n
Mex
ico
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2000 2010
Share of rail and water in total goods traffic