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International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
River Basin Programme of ICIMOD: In support of reducing physical vulnerabilities and improving food and energy security
Arun B. Shrestha
4th Third Pole Environment WorkshopMarch 2013Dehradun
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The “Third Pole”
Largest reserve of snow and ice outside the polar regions
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The “water tower”
• Amu Darya• Indus• Ganges• Brahmaputra
(Yarlungtsanpo)• Irrawaddy • Salween (Nu)• Mekong (Lancang)• Yangtse (Jinsha)• Yellow River
(Huanghe)• Tarim (Dayan)
These River Basins provide services to 1.3 billion people, a fifth of the world’s population (ICIMOD, 2009)
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Different sources of moisture
(IICIMOD 2008)
JJAS
DJF
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Sensitivity to climate change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3y = -161.57 + 0.081443x R= 0.59188
=8.09=0.33
Te
mp
eratu
re A
no
ma
ly ( oC
)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
y = -134.43 + 0.068 x R= 0.49862
=20.22=0.31
Te
mp
era
ture
An
om
aly
(oC
)
Year
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3y = -184.44 + 0.093 x R= 0.65632
=-3.09=0.39
Te
mp
era
ture
An
om
aly
(oC
) a.
b.
c.
d.
Shrestha et al. 2009
HKH
HKH
Indus
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Runoff partioning
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Q (
m3 /s
)
rain
baseflow
snow
glacier
0
300
600
900
1200
2005 2025 2050 2075
(mm
)
Glacial runoff
Snow runoff
Rain runoff
Baseflow
At catchment scale (Langtang) deglaciation does not result in reduction in the runoff
Immerzeel et al., 2012
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Rees et al. (2004)
T=0.06oC/yrP=15%/yr
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Immerzeel et al., 2010; Science vol 328
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Role of snow and ice
UNEP, 2007
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Water scarcity
(IWMI 2008).
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Growing Water Demand
Rosengrant et al., 2002
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Why River Basin Programme ?
• Dublin Statement (1992) “the river basin is the most appropriate geographical entity for the planning and management of water resources”
• Development in RS and GIS has allowed to conduct study and analysis at river basin scale
• Recent studies on freshwater vulnerability at river basin scale (e.g. WDRG, Finland) suggested Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra as most vulnerable river basins
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ICIMOD’s River Basin Programme
• Challenges: To manage the problem of too much water in the wet season and too little water in the dry season and the consequences for water-related hazards and food, energy, and environmental security
• Goal: Improved integrated river basin management to reduce physical vulnerabilities and improve food and energy security for mountain and downstream communities in the HKH region while recognizing upstream interests
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Major Outputs
• River-basin wide information and analysis related to water management practices
• Climate change impact assessment of future water availability and risk scenarios for various sectors
• Gender sensitive and equitable IWRM and governance approaches to improve access to and use of water and hazard risk
• Establishment of regional flood and drought information system and vulnerability assessments
• Framework for regional cooperation on sharing regional flood data and information among RMCs
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Major Outputs (contd.)
• Policy-relevant recommendations for water resources programmes the water-food-energy nexus;
• Capacity building of regional partners’ on mountain-specific IWRM and DRR
• Basin-wide and regional knowledge hubs
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Cross cutting issues
• Gender and social inclusion: – Preparation of gender sensitive water
induced risk assessment , identification of challenges and capacity gaps women face in order to adapt to climate change impacts;
– documentation of best practices and policies, focusing on gender sensitive and inclusive approaches;
– preparation of a toolkit of adaptation strategies at the river basin level for vulnerable socioeconomic groups over a range of geospatial settings.
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Cross cutting issues (contd.)
• Economic analysis and governance: – An assessment of the feasibility of planning
IWRM strategies– development of innovative approaches to
improving water resource management in a sustainable manner, through benefit sharing between u/s and d/s
– evidence- and knowledge-based discussions among decision and policymakers.
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Initiatives of River Basin Programme
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Indus Basin Initiative
• To develop better understanding long-term climate trends and short-term climate variability
• To enhance understanding of cryosphere dynamics
• To study impact of climate change and its variation on water availability
• Risk assessment of climate induced hazards on livelihood of vulnerable communities of UIB
• To study the Impact of UIB hydrological change on agriculture and socio economic conditions of downstream vulnerable sectors
• To support adaptation to the impact of climate change on agriculture and water management
http://geoportal.icimod.org/indusbasin/
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HYCOS Initiative
• Strengthen the framework for cooperation for sharing regional flood data and information
• Establish a flood observation network in selected rivers
• Establish regional and national flood information systems to share real time data and information and increase lead time
• Enhance the technical capacity of partners on flood forecasting and communication with end users
http://hkhhycos.icimod.org/
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Koshi Basin Initiative
• Support evidence-based policy interventions through the development of knowledge on impact of climatic and socioeconomic drivers
• Develop and test actionable and appropriate adaptation pilots and livelihood strategies
• Contribute to developing an enabling environment for policy and decision makers to create integrated, innovative, equitable, inclusive, and effective responses
http://www.icimod.org/?q=9037
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Stages of Koshi Initiative
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We work for
Communities
Private Sector
Policy / decision makers
National Government
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Thank you