INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Carbon dioxide capture and storage in a climate change perspective
The current state of insights from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Heleen de ConinckTechnical Support Unit IPCC WG III (Mitigation)
Trondheim, October 26th, 2004OSPAR Workshop: The Environmental Impact of
Placement of Carbon Dioxide in Geological Structures in the Maritime Area
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
About IPCC
Established by WMO and UNEP 1988:• Assess scientific, technical and socio-economic
information on climate change, impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation
• Publication of reports• No research, no monitoring, no recommendations• Policy relevant but not policy prescriptive • Extensive review processes of its reports• Support to UNFCCC
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
About IPCC: organisation
W ork in g g rou p IS c ien ce
Tech n ica l S u p p ort U n itU K
W ork in g G rou p IIIm p ac t an d A d ap ta tionTech n ica l S u p p ort U n it
U S A
W ork in g G rou p IIIM it ig a tion
Tech n ica l S u p p ort U n itN e th erlan d s
Task F orce onN ation a l G H G in ven to ries
Tech n ica l S u p p ort U n itJap an
IP C C B u reau
IP C CIP C C C h a ir
W M O /U N E P
Co-ordination SR on CO2 capture and storage
Co-chairs WGIII: Ogunlade Davidson (Sierra Leone) &
Bert Metz (Netherlands)
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Why are IPCC publicationsso influential?
• World-wide effort to gather and combine all views and information on climate change
• Broad involvement of scientists • Extensive review process• Based on consensus - if no consensus reached, all
opinions to be reflected in report• Report: owned by authors• Summary for Policymakers (SPM): owned by
governments
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Convincing evidence…
Source: IPCC TAR, 2001
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
…that the climate is changing…temperature rise (°C)
Source: IPCC TAR, 2001
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
… and impacts seem inevitable
Source: IPCC TAR, 2001
I: Unique and threatened systemsII: Extreme climate eventsIII: DistributionIV: Aggregate impactsV: Large-scale discontinuities
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Impacts of CO2 emissions and climate change
• Temperature rise• Changing precipitation patterns; flooding; landslides• Sea level rise• Melting of glaciers• Ecological consequences• Consequence for farming, especially in developing
countries• Slow acidification of the oceans by take-up of
atmospheric CO2
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What can be done?
• Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations at levels of 450 ppmv (or 550, 650, 750?)
• Reduction of emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases
• Fossil fuel combustion main cause of CO2 emissions
• World energy supply likely to remain dominated by fossil fuels until at least 2050
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What can be done?
Source: IPCC TAR, 2001
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What can be done?
• Energy efficiency
• Decarbonisation– energy sources
– CO2 capture and storage
• Biological carbon sequestration
• Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What does IPCC tell us on capture and storage of CO2?
IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001): a “new mitigation technology”
• “Serious mitigation option”
• Capacity not restraining (~ 5700 GtCO2)
• Costs are estimated competitive with other mitigation options at ca. 40 – 60 US$/tCO2
• Safety and verification noted as problems• Significant cost reductions for achieving stabilisation
scenarios
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What does IPCC tell us on capture and storage of CO2?
Dooley, 2002
Energy and economic models seem to agree on a number of broad principles:– Relatively small niche market for CCS technologies
in the absence of a CO2 emissions mandate
– CCS technologies’ deployment accelerates as carbon permit prices rise
– Ultimate deployment of this class of technologies could be massive, depending on the stabilisation scenario assumptions
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What does IPCC tell us on capture and storage of CO2?
Conclusions IPCC Workshop on carbon dioxide capture and storage (November 2002):
• Environmental impacts of geological storage likely small, but not well characterised
• Progress expected in the near future
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What does IPCC tell us on capture and storage of CO2?
Conclusions IPCC Workshop on carbon dioxide capture and storage (November 2002):
• Literature basis growing rapidly• CCS important enough to deserve good
assessment• More attention needed for barriers and
uncertainties
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Contents IPCC SRCCS
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Legal framework in the SRCCS?
• Assessment requested by the IPCC Plenary
• Interpretation still uncertain: legal literature not unambiguous
• Giving one interpretation would be policy prescriptive
• Legal section will be highlighting the difficulties, not providing a solution
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Timing of the SRCCS
• January – March 2005: Government and Expert Review
• End of April: last Lead Author meeting• July: Final Draft finished• August: Government Review of the Summary for
Policymakers• End of September: IPCC Approval session• Presentation to UNFCCC at COP-11 (November
2005)
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
More information?
• IPCC Workshop in Regina: Proceedings
• IPCC in general: www.ipcc.ch
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