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Interactions of Land Use and Global Environmental Change on Watershed-scale Processes
Lars Pierce, Fred Watson, Melinda Mulitsch, Wendi Newman, Adrian Rocha, Jodiah Nelson, Mark Fain, and others
Institute of Earth Systems Science & PolicyCalifornia State University, Monterey Bay
Seaside, California [email protected]
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Water Resource Issues in the Salinas Valley:
How do LULC and global-scale environmental changes (climate, CO2, etc.) influence water and carbon cycling?
How do the impacts of LULCC vs. GEC compare?
How effective are management policies designed to reducethe impacts of land use change on water resources?
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CO2ET PS
H2O C N
N
RH Nloss Ndep
Plant
Soil
PPT
Material Flux Constraint
C
CL Nup
Root
Leaf
Root
Leaf
RO
RA
NL
LAI
Tf
Schematic flowchart of the BIOME-BGC Ecosystem Model.
BGC ModelIntegrated Water, C, N cycles(Running et al. models)
Timestep: Daily
Spatial Scale: • Homogeneous plot (~30m)• 1 vegetation, 1 soil layer
Driving Variables:•Daily climate (T, ppt)•Vegetation / Land Cover•Leaf Area Index•Soil text, depth, C, N
Key Processes:Water: Rain/Snow, Interception,Soil Moisture, ET, RunoffCarbon: Photosynthesis, Growth, Respiration, TurnoverNitrogen: Uptake, Allocation,Turnover, Loss
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Measured Biomass (g m-2 yr-1)
Sim
ulat
ed B
iom
ass
(g m
-2 y
r-1)
Figure 2. Measured above-ground biomass compared to the above-groundbiomass simulated using BIOME-BGC for the water x CO2 experiment inthe Jasper Ridge CO2 project (Field et al., 1997).
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Photo courtesy of Fred Watson
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Salinas Valley of the Future?• Atmospheric CO2: 700 ppmv• Temperature: +3.5 ± 2 oC• Precipitation: +25%, Seasonality? • Nitrogen Deposition• Land Use: Oak, Agriculture
• Separate vs. Combined Responses to Change• 1994 - 96 Daily Climate for Salinas, California• Equilibrium Fluxes and Pools for NPP, Water Use• Agriculture: No N, Water Limitations; 3 crops/yr.
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
day of the year
pla
nt
dry
wt
(g/m
2) 1xCO2
2xCO2
1xCO2+T
2xCO2+T
Lettuce Yield
Not much effect on total yield; significant impact on timing of harvest+2.5C (harvest 5 days earlier)
2xCO2 (harvest 10-15 days earlier)
growth growthprep fallow
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-1800
-1600
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
Agriculture Oak WoodlandN
et R
echar
ge
(mm
H2O
/yr)
Ambient T T+CO2 T+CO2+PPT T+CO2+PPT+N
LULC vs. Environmental Change(Net Recharge = Runoff-Irrigation)
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Plot-level Conclusions
• Oak Woodland• Responsive to changes in CO2, T, PPT, N (10-30%)
• Large Interactions (5-15%)
• Agriculture• Responsive to changes in CO2, T only (5-20%)
• Small Interactions (< 5%)
• Land Cover Change > Environmental Change
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Photo courtesy of Fred Watson
LULC vs. GEC at the watershed-scale
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Land Use / Land CoverGabilan Ck Watershed (94 km2)Derived from 1995 Landsat TM
Crops (8%)
Urban (1%)
Oak Woodland (26%)Grassland (51%)Chaparral (14%)
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Gabilan Ck Simulations4 Simulations: LULC vs. Climate Change
• 1995 LULC (Present): – Ambient & 2xCO2 Climate
• ~1800 LULC (Past, Ag/Urban -> Grassland): – Ambient & 2xCO2 Climate
• Separate vs. Combined Responses to Change• 1996 - 98 Daily Climate for Salinas, California• Agriculture: No N, Water Limitations; 2-3 crops/yr.
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Leaf Area Index vs. Satellite Reflectance
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0 2 4 6 8 10 12Ground-measured LAI
Landsat TM
NDVI
Natural sites (AccuPAR LAI)
Agricultural sites (Destructive LAI)
Fitted curve
Courtesy of Fred Watson, CSUMB
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0
100
200
300
400
500
Present Past
Net
Rec
har
ge
(mm
/yr)
Ambient
T+CO2
Gabilan Ck WatershedLULC vs. Climate Change @ Watershed-scale
+41mm -44mm
Land Use / Land Cover(Net Recharge = Runoff-Irrigation)
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Conclusions
• Plot scale• LULC >> Temperature, CO2 Changes
• Watershed scale • LULC ~ Temperature, CO2 changes
• 10% Ag/Urban Land Use
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Simulated Effects of ENSO on Soil Moistureand Evaporation,1997 - 1998,Chualar Creek
Oak Woodland & Chaparral
Agriculture
Movie Link
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Fred Watson’s Tarsier: http://science.csumb.edu/~tarsier/
MacaqueBGC
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VSIM
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Monterey County Land Use, 2000
Map created by Wendi Newman, CSUMB
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Parameter Source Derived Inputs Models Outputs
Climate NWSCIMIS
TemperaturePrecipitation
Topography USGSElevation
Slope, Aspect
Land CoverTM
AVHRRVegetation
Type, Amount
Soils NRCS Soil Texture
Land Use AMBAG ZoningDensity
MTCLIM
BGC
Macaque
Microclimate
RunoffWater Use
Water Stress
Productivity
Leaching
NWS - National Weather ServiceUSGS - US Geological SurveyNRCS - USDA Natural Resources Conservation ServiceAMBAG - Assoc. of Monterey Bay Area Govts.TM - LANDSAT Thematic MapperAVHRR - NOAA Adv. Very High Resolution Radiometer
MTCLIM - climate interpolation modelBGC - ecosystem process model
Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys)
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500
600
700
800
1xCO2 2xCO2 1xCO2+T 2xCO2+T
Irri
ga
tio
n (
mm
/yr)
Irrigation Water Use
+T - not much impact on irrigation water use (due to shorter crop rotation)2xCO2 - 14% reduction in irrigation water use (1 less event)