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David Leechiu – CEOMarch 2017
1
INSIGHTS ON THEPHILIPPINE REAL ESTATE MARKET
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THE PHILIPPINES
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The Philippines
3
103million
POPULATION
LITERACY RATE
97.5%
CREDITRATING
BBBS & P
MOODY’S Baa2
FITCH BBB-
6.8%GROWTHGDP
INFLATION RATE
2.6%
D E B T
E X T E R N A L
$76.62B (SEPT 2016)
47.4% of GDP(1H2016)
P U B L I C
LABOR FORCE68.1 Mn
FOREIGN RESERVES
$81B
24 years oldAverage age of Filipinos
PHILIPPINEGDP
$292.45B
Source: Trading Economics, BSP
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Foreign Investment in the Philippines
4
40%FOREIGN EQUITY LIMIT
30%CORPORATE INCOME TAX
LEASE TERM
25 yearsRenewable for another 25 years
50 yearsRenewable for another 25 years
In some cases,
PERSONAL INCOME TAX
32% If annual net taxable income is at least P500,000 annual income (USD10,000)
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Philippine Foreign Direct Investments (FDI)
5Source: World Bank
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Government’s Socioeconomic Agenda
6
Current macroeconomic policies
PRES. DUTERTE’S 10-POINT SOCIOECONOMIC AGENDA
Tax Reform Ease of Doing Business
InfrastructureSpending
Rural andvalue chaindevelopment
Security andland tenure
Human CapitalDevelopment
Science, technology, andcreative arts
Social protectionprograms
ResponsibleParenthood &ReproductiveHealth
Source: DOH
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Demand Drivers
Urban Population Growth
It is projected to rise to 56.3% by 2030 and 66% by 2050.
BPO Employee’sHousing Need
Growing number of BPO workers
Need to liveneartheir
workplace.
Overseas FilipinoRemittances
48.6%of Filipinoslive in Urban Areas*
10 millionOF’s can invest in Real Estate
More than 50%
of remittances are real estate related
Source: Keynote speech of Sec. Arsenio M. Balisacan Director General of NEDA“The Philippine Economic Growth and the Growth in the Property Sector” 2015* 2010
7
Housing backlog needs to be addressed and
demand for dormitories will rise.
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Quezon City
Ortigas/Pasig
Makati
BGC / Taguig
Bay/Pasay
Alabang
Parañaque
Las Pinas
Manila
Manda-luyong
San Juan
Metro Manila Cityscapes
ORTIGAS CBD. ROCKWELL BUSINESS CENTER. ARCOVIA CITY. SILVER CITY. CAPITOL COMMONS.
MAKATI MAKATI CBD. CENTURY CITY. ROCKWELL CENTER. CIRCUIT MAKATI.
ORTIGAS
BGC BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY. MCKINLEY WEST. MCKINLEY HILL.UPTOWN. VERITOWN.
3 MAJOR CBDs
46 BUSINESS PARKS
QUEZON CITY. UP TECHNOHUB. EASTWOOD CITY. ETON CENTRIS.
ARANETA, CYBERARK. ROBINSONS BRIDGETOWNE IT PARK. VERTIS NORTH. UP TOWN
CENTER. FAIRVIEW TERRACES. ALI CLOVERLIEF BALINTAWAK. NUVO. MANDALUYONG. GREENFIELD DISTRICT. ROBINSONS CYBERGATE. ROCKWELL SHERIDAN. SAN JUAN.
ROCKWELL HILLSIDE. MUNTINLUPA. FILINVEST CORPORATE CITY. LA FUERZA.
NORTHGATE CYBERZONE. MADRIGAL BUSINESS PARK. ALABANG WEST. TAGUIG. ARCA
SOUTH. LAS PINAS. PORTOFINO. EVIA. PASAY. NEWPORT CITY. SM MALL OF ASIA
COMPLEX. METROPOLITAN BUSINESS PARK. DOUBLE DRAGON CYBERCAMPUS. FILINVEST
CYBERZONE PASAY. PARANAQUE. ASIAWORLD CITY. ASEANA BUSINESS PARK. AYALA
ASEANA. MANILA. CITYPLACE. SAN LAZARO.
8
• Most of these districts will be fully developed by 2018.• There will be little land left for development.• The most important districts moving forward will be
Bonifacio Global City, Bay Area, Filinvest City, and Arca South.
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Regional Cityscapes
LAOAG. CAMELLA. VALDEZ CENTER. CAGAYAN. CAGAYAN SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE AND FREEPORT. BAGUIO.
BAGUIO AYALA LAND TECHNOHUB. SM BAGUIO CYBERZONE BUILDING. PCH IT CENTER. ABANAO SQUARE. TARLAC.LUISITA BUSINESS PARK. TARLAC PROVINCIAL IT PARK.
BULACAN. PDC TECHNOPARK. ALTARAZA. FIRST BULACAN IT PARK. CIUDAD DE VICTORIA. ABS-CBN CAMPUS.
URDANETA. CB MALL.
Over 80 I.T. parks and
business districts
Countryside development going throughunprecedented construction boom driven by
BPO and tourism.
PAMPANGA. CLARK SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE. PHILEXCEL BUSINESS PARK. BERTAPHIL BUSINESS PARK. SM CITY CLARK. CLARK GREEN CITY. GGLC.
NEPO CENTER. ALVIERRA. CAPILION. AKLAN. BORACAY NEW COAST. CAPIZ. PUEBLO DE PANAY
TECHNOPARK. ILOILO. ILOILO TECHNOHUB. ATRIA PARK DISTRICT. GAISANO CAPITAL. AYALA SICOGON.
ILOILO BUSINESS PARK. BACOLOD. LOPUE’S EAST IT CENTER. ONE AND TWO SANPARQ. THE
BLOCK IT PARK. ROBINSONS CYBERGATE CENTER.
LOPUE’S SOUTHSQUARE IT PARK. BACOLOD IT PARK. CAPITOL CENTRAL. DUMAGUETE.
DUMAGUETE BUSINESS PARK. LINKSYS IT PARK. LP IT PARK. YY STAR DAS.
CAVITE. BATANGAS. LAGUNA. VERMOSA.PONTEFINO. SUNTECH IT PARK. HAMILO COAST.
SMDM IT CENTER. SOUTHFORBES IT PARK. SOUTHWOODS. NUVALI. ETON CITY.
GREENFIELD CITY. PUERTO AZUL. CEBU. CEBU IT PARK. CEBU SRP.
CEBU BUSINESS PARK. MACTAN NEWTOWN. ABOITIZLAND CEBU. WATERFRONT TOWNSHIP.
CITTA DE MARE. SMC. OAKRIDGE BUSINESS PARKDAVAO. MATINA IT PARK. ABREEZA. DAVAO PARK
DISTRICT. LANANG IT PARK. DAMOSA IT PARK. NORTHPOINT. CAMELLA. CIUDADES. LUBI ISLAND
PLANTATION.
Approximately 132,000 hectares of master-planned or
mixed-use developments
PALAWAN. LIO RESORT TOWN. SAN VICENTE. QUEZON. BALESIN ISLAND
CLUB
ZAMBOANGA. MEGALAND MALL. CITYMALL ZAMBOANGA.
ZAMBOECOZONE AND FREEPORT NEW TOWNSHIP. ZAMBOECOZONE
HIGHLANDS. CAGAYAN DE ORO.LIMKETKAI CENTER. SM CITY BPO 2.
CENTRIO. ONE PROVIDENCE.
LAOAG
CAGAYAN
BAGUIO
TARLAC
PAMPANGABULACAN
QUEZONCAVITE /
BATANGAS / LAGUNA
CAPIZ
PALAWAN ILOILO
BACOLOD
DUMAGUETE
DAVAO
ZAMBOANGACAGAYAN DE ORO
PANGASINAN
9
21
4
2
9
1
11
1
24
69 CEBU
4
4
4
GENERAL SANTOS
91
Number of townships
Legend:
51
Unprecedented countrysidedevelopment.
1AKLAN
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Growth Sectors
Source: UNWTO, iBPAP, World Bank 10
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TourismReceipts
BPO Revenue
Overseas Filipinos
Remittance
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
PH Growth Amidst Historical Events
Bombing in ZamboangaCapture and sentence ofJemaah Islamiyah2
00
2
EDSA IIEDSA III9-11Phil. General ElectionsDos Palmas Kidnapping
Oakwood MutinySARS OutbreakJemaah Islamayah escapeJose Pidal plunder caseDavao airport bombing2
00
3
Infanta Mud SlideSuperferry BombingPhil. General ElectionsGeneral Santos Christmas Bombing2
00
4
V-day BombingHello Garci ScandalGeneral Santos City Mall Bombing2
00
5
MilenyoSouthern Leyte Mud SlideState of Emergency Declaration2
00
6
ZTE ScandalConviction of ERAPGlorietta 2 BombingManila Peninsula MutinyCotabato Bus Station BombingCongress Bombing
20
07
Cotabato City BombingCes Drilon KidnappingMV Princess of the Star SankZTE-NBN IrregularitiesMeralco Stockholders Meeting2
00
8
H1N1 OutbreakTyphoon OndoyTyphoon PepengTyphoon MarakotSuperferry sank in ZamboangaDeath of Corazon AquinoGreenbelt 5 RobberyMaguindanao Massacre
20
09
Typhoon MegiManila Hostage CrisisPhil. General ElectionsDLSU explosion during Bar ExamsInauguration of Pres. Noynoy AquinoVizconde Massacre Case Finished
20
10
Makati Bus Explosion
Tropical Storm Juaning
Typhoon Sendong
Arrest of former Pres. Gloria Arroyo
20
11
Corona Impeachment TrialTyphoon PabloCebu Governor Suspension6.9 Magnitude Earthquake Negros and CebuTropical Dispute with China
20
12
Super Typhoon HaiyanCebu Ferry TragedyKilling of Taiwanese FishermanSenate Pork Barrel Scam Hearing5.4 Magnitude Earthquake Cebu and Bohol
20
13
Typhoon HagupitBinay Alleged Corruption HearingsDMCI Construction Hearings2
01
4
Pres. Aquino’s Final SONAKentex Manufacturing Slippers Factory FireTyphoon NonaTyphoon KoppuPNP-SAF killed in Maguindanao
20
15
GDP expanded by 7%National and Local ElectionsRodrigo Duterte proclaimed as new Pres.Pres. Duterte enjoys a record high trust rating of 92%Spratly Islands DisputeDavao BombingWar on DrugsAbove investment grade rating (BBB)State of Emergency Declaration
20
16
20
01
11
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METRO MANILA
OFFICE MARKET
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Metro Manila Current vs. Pipeline Supply
Current vacancy rate across Metro Manila is at an all time low of 3.8%.
As of March 2017, there is a record number of 518,500 sqm pre-commitments for office space for 2017.
Bonifacio Global City, Quezon City, and Bay Area will more or less double its office space stock in the next 6 years.
Future office supply will mostly come from BGC, followed by Ortigas/Pasig/Mandaluyong, and Bay Area.
13
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*Gross Leasable Area in thousands (sqm)
Metro Manila Supply PipelinePer District, per Year (2017 to 2023E)
14
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*Gross Leasable Area in thousands (sqm)
FY 2016 Supply and Demand
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By Location
16
Metro Manila Demand Activity 2016 | By Location and Industry
By Industry
70% of demand are coming from the information technology – business process management (IT-BPM) industry and
60% prefer Bonifacio Global City (BGC) over any other district.
*Online gaming transactions are concentrated in the Bay Area
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*Gross Leasable Area in thousands (sqm)
2017E Supply and Demand
2017 supply is also at an historical high of 1,269,618 square meters, most of which are in BGC, constructed at a much higher grade of specification, materials,
workmanship, and quality, and catering primarily to multinational corporate tenants. Nonetheless, demand for 2017 is forecasted to reach new heights judging by the significant and unprecedented level of pre-commitments of 518,500 sqm by
tenants to buildings under construction.
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Metro Manila Demand Activity 2017E | By Location and Industry
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• IT-BPM tenants, a significant driver in the demand for office space, need to locate in PEZA-certified buildings. • Currently, there is a risk of scarcity of such PEZA-registered projects, as so few have been granted this status in the last seven
months—only two buildings in Metro Manila, one in Luzon, and one in the Visayas.
PEZA Status2016, 2017E and 2018E Office Buildings
• For the supply in 2017, only 15% are PEZA spaces with vacancies; others are either leased or non-PEZA. • Much of the vacant PEZA buildings are due for completion at the end of 2017 and are at risk of delays (Q1- or Q2-2018)• We forecast rents for these PEZA buildings to be driven up, given the limited supply and the significant demand from IT-BPM tenants
for them.
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PEZA StatusBy District | 2017E to 2023E
*Gross Leasable Area in thousands (sqm)
Total PEZA-Accredited space: 1,314,148 sqm (36 buildings)Total space under application for PEZA: 2,210,445 sqm (81 buildings)Total non-PEZA space: 485,998 sqm (17 buildings)
4.01M sqm
Total supply2017-2023E
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Metro Manila Current SupplyDeveloper Market Share (1960’s to 2016)
21
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Metro Manila Supply Pipeline Developer Market Share (2017 to 2023E)
22
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Metro Manila Rental Range(PhP per sqm. per month)
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Land Values by Business District
BusinessDistrict
*FARRange
Y-o-YIncrease
%(2014-2015)
Land ValuesPhp/sqm(2015)
AccommodationValue
GFA/sqm(2015)
Land ValuesPhp/sqm(2016)
AccommodationValue
GFA/sqm(2016)
Y-o-YIncrease
%(2015-2016)
Filinvest City 6 – 14 17% 99k – 264k 19,000 120k-280k 20,000 6%
Arca South 6 – 8 0% 210k – 220k 28,000 210k-280k 35,000 27%
Bay City 6 38% 150k – 180k 30,000 198k 33,000 10%
Bonifacio Global City
6 – 15 14% 270k – 600k 40,000 360k-900k 60,000 50%
Makati 6 – 16 27% 210k – 560k 35,000 300k – 800k 50,000 43%
Ortigas N/A 10% 109k – 223k N/A 200k – 350k N/A 57%
24
Bonifacio Global City still has the highest land values in the Philippinesin the last 10 years.
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PROVINCIAL
OFFICE MARKET
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PROVINCES Supply (sqm)
CEBU 464,766
CALABARZON 258,777
DAVAO 92,919
PAMPANGA 126,614
ILOILO 72,168
BACOLOD 36,000
REST OF LUZON 156,590
REST OF VISAYAS 40,039
REST OF MINDANAO
41,565
TOTAL 1.29M sqm
Provincial Pipeline(2017 to 2022E)
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Provincial Pipeline Developer Market Share (2017 to 2022E)
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IT-BPM MARKET
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Philippine IT-BPM SectorRevenue and Employment Forecast
*Source: IBPAP’s Roadmap 2022, Frost & Sullivan analysis, IBPAP data for 2010
2022 Outlook Philippines will move up the value curve with the help of high-value services.
29
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BPO Distribution
30
CEBU
MINDANAO
NCR
CALABARZON
NORTH AND CENTRAL LUZON
REST OF VISAYAS
6%
3%
70%
3%
15%
3%
1.15million
Estimated Number of FTEs by end of 2016
LEGEND
Luzon
Visayas
Mindanao
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Next Wave CitiesRecommended Provincial Locations
Healthy labor pool, local government support, fiber optic connectivity, accessibility and strong tourism play attract IT-BPM companies to locate in these provinces.
3131
CAGAYAN
AKLAN
BOHOL
LAGUNA
MISAMIS ORIENTAL
LEYTE
RIZAL
LEGEND
Untapped locations for IT-BPMs
Presence of 3+ IT-BPM locators
• Calamba
• Tuguegarao
• Cagayan De Oro
• Tacloban
• Kalibo
• Imus • Dasmarinas• Rosario• Bacoor
CAVITE
• Taytay• Binangonan• Antipolo• Cainta
PANGASINAN
• Tagbilaran
BATANGAS
• Batangas City
• Dagupan
BULACAN
• Meycauayan• Malolos
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RESIDENTIAL MARKET
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33
Residential Outlook2017
Only condominiums will continue to grow in NCR because there is no more supply of developable land for residential open lots, but reaching a plateau
Developers have no more significant landbank, thus the direction to go out of NCR
BPO sector creating a new breed of condominium dwellers
Significant unmet housing demand needs a unified government effort
Strong presence of OFWs, major bulk of growing middle income market
Construction delays will continue to temper growth across real estate segments
Thriving condo living to drive demand for home furnishings, accessories.
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Continuous Increase in Residential Constructions (Philippines)
• Top 5 regions in terms of number
of construction:
Region IV-A (CALABARZON) 25%,
Region III (Central Luzon) 11%
NCR 10%
Region VII (Central Visayas) 10%
Region X (Northern Mindanao) 7%
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Top 10 Remitting Countries to PHAs of 2016
*Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
✓ Philippines is the 3rd largest recipient of foreign remittances next to India and China
✓ USA is the highest contributor with 33% of total remittance flows
Jan-Dec 2015US$25.6Bn
Jan – Dec 2016US$26.8BnVS
60% of remittances go to the real estate sector
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Residential Condominium GFAvs. Office GLA vs. Interest rates
*Source: BSP; PSA36
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37
Residential Condominium Supply
*As of December 2016
*Package Price based on most saleable unit type per development (Mostly Studio -2BR with sizes
ranging from 22-62 sqm)
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38
Price per square meter
Minimum price Maximum price
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39
Historical Residential Rental Rate
*Based on typical studio or 1BR unit
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Residential Historical Land Values(2011 to 2015)
40
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TRENDS
Tourism
Artificial Intelligence
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2015 Int’l Tourist ArrivalsAsia Pacific
Source: UNWTO 42
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Philippine Tourist ArrivalsDomestic and International
1H2016: Total of 44 million tourist arrivals
Source: DoT 43
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44
Philippine Tourism
Source: DOT
TOTAL (Philippines)No. of Accommodation
10,194
No. of Rooms240,435
Ave. Occupancy Rate67%
Ave. Length of Stay2 Days
National Tourism Development Plan 2017 -2022 target areas:
- Enhanced air access- Increased accommodation capacity- Improved human resources- Stepped up marketing campaigns
Luzon
Visayas
Mindanao
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Philippine Flight Ratios
45
Land mass (ha) PopulationNo. of Airportsand Flights*
Annual Passenger Footprint
North Luzon 9,566,801 35,460,000 7
49 flights daily1,527,333
South Luzon (excluding Metro Manila and
Palawan)
3,019,850 8,700,6607
30 flights daily241,711
Metro Manila 63,600 12,221,000 1
650 flights daily36,681,601
*Palawan 1,489,000 994,3404
42 flights daily909,635
Visayas City(excluding Cebu City)
5,629,100 24,299,35412
274 flights daily8,599,860
Cebu City 31,500 866,1711
170 flights daily7,781,239
Mindanao(excluding Davao City)
9,753,000 23,167,70414
101 flights daily3,245,471
Davao City 244,000 1,449,2961
71 flights daily2,790,000
*Palawan will become the most accessible with 4 upcoming
new and expanded airports completed by 2017
*inbound and outbound flights. No. of airports include pipeline.
Source: Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (via Wikipedia website), ourairports.com, NSCB statistics
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Metro Manila Hotels: 2010 to 2019
46
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Top 5 Source Markets
Source: DoT 47
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Chinese Tourist Arrivals2014 - 2016
Source: DOT, China National Tourism Administration 48
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Artificial Intelligence
49
In the next 15 years, 45% to 75% of existing
offshore jobs in the financial services sector
will be performed by robotic process
automation. - KPMG
Automation would erase
22.7 million US jobs by 2025
By 2018, global sales of industrial robots
will grow an average y-o-y by 15% - units sold will double to
around 400,000 units
Global Robotics Market is expected
to reach USD 82.7 billion by 2020
Machine-human parity may reach a
1:1 ratio by
2040
Asia was the
biggest robot market (139,000
units) in 2014, 41% higher than in 2013
Tech Companies spent USD 8.5 billion last 2015 on artificial
intelligence, four times more than in
2010
Worldwide market value for robot
systems in 2014 is estimated to be
USD 32 billion
2016 FundingUSD 974M
2020 FundingUSD 70B
Artificial Intelligence Funding
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ABOUT
LEECHIU PROPERTY CONSULTANTS
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MISSIONTo deliver superior value and profitable real estate solutions for like-minded partners through local, dynamic & insightful property-related
expertise in corporate leasing and investments.
To be the advisor of choice who provides the most strategic and outstanding property-related advice, solutions and services to our
customers. Our company values unity, integrity and passion for excellence.
VISION
Together, our firm, redefines the real estate industry by being a catalyst of sustainable growth, through principled and expert property consulting
advice and action.
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The Philippines’ deepest bench of
seasoned real estate advisors & brokers
ProjectLeasing
OccupierSolutions
IT-BPM SiteSelection
InvestmentSales
Our Services
Research &Consultancy
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Occupier Solutions
Occupier Solutions transactions to date
Closed Deals Live Deals
82,000 SQM 333,000 SQM
Our Clients
IT-BPM SiteSelection Clients
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Project Leasing
BGC. Citibank Plaza. Ecoprime. Menarco Tower. Net Park. Milestone at Fifth Avenue.
Orē Central. The Curve. Twenty-five Seven McKinley. W CityCenter. W Fifth Avenue. W Global Center. W Office at High Street. High Street South Corporate Plaza I
QUEZON CITY. Hexagon Corporate Center. One Luna Global Connections.
Panorama Technocenter.
ALABANG. Asian Star Building
MAKATI CITY. Frabelle Salcedo. Liberty Plaza. M1 Tower. MJ Corporate Plaza. Nex Tower.
ORTIGAS CENTER. St. Francis Square.
BAY AREA. DoubleDragon Plaza. Nexgen Tower.
CAVITE. Suntech iPark.
CEBU. Latitude Corporate Center. Mabuhay Tower.
We also advise and support landlords, building owners and real estate developers. Our leasing experts
create and implement strategies for finding the right tenant mix and ensure maximum occupancy in a
timely manner. Our real estate brokers have managed to lease more than thirty office buildings in Metro
Manila on behalf of developers.
Currently marketing 28 projectsTotal of 722,000 sqm
Looking to exclusively handle more project leasing appointmentsacross the Philippines in 2017
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LPC looking to transact circa PhP 25 billion or USD 500 million in 2017
Investment Sales
LPC officially started October 1, 2015 and in the first year of operating, we have concluded the following:
PhP 3.5 billion or USD 70
million
✓ Prime Commercial Lots in Bonifacio Global City
✓ Office floor in Grade AAA building
along Ayala Avenue, Makati
✓ Prime Residential Apartment Building
in Salcedo Village, Makati
✓ Residential Apartment Buildings
in Kalayaan Avenue, Makati
✓ Office floors in Filinvest City
USD to PHP $1 : 50.04 PHP
55Source: Investment Sales pipeline as of January 2017
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Research and Consultancy
Our research and consultancy arm allows us to offer to clients a full suite of consulting services
that include business planning, highest and best use studies, market research, project
conceptualization, and project feasibility.
Completed Projects – Highest and Best Use Study
Project Cost of PhP 58.1 billion
or USD 1,211 million
Central Business District:
BGC and Muntinlupa
Mixed Use developments:
Lakewood City Cabanatuan
Batulao, Woodlands Batangas
Pico de Loro, BatangasUSD to PHP $1 :48 PHP
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CBRE Strategic Alliance with Leechiu Property Consultants
EFFECTIVE JANUARY 1, 2017Source: CBRE Website
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This document is prepared by Leechiu Property Consultants (LPC) for information only and is based on information and representations provided to LPC. While reasonable care has been exercised in preparing this document, LPC does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. LPC shall not be responsible for any losses or liability of any nature arising from or in connection with reliance, in whole or in part, on the contents of this document. Except as may otherwise be expressly indicated herein, LPC does not undertake any obligation to advise any recipient hereof of any changes or updates with respect to the information contained herein.
Interested parties should not rely on the statements or representations of fact as contained in this document, and are expected to conduct due diligence and independent verification of the information contained herein. Interested parties are encouraged to consult with their legal, financial, and tax advisers in evaluating the transaction described herein, as this document does not purport to be an exhaustive and/or definitive summary of all commercial, legal, and financial matters which may be material to your decision to proceed (or not to proceed) with the proposed transaction.
This document does not constitute, in whole or in part, an offer by LPC or contract between LPC and any recipient hereof.
Our Insights. Your Success.www.leechiu.com