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Cloud microphysical processes: A major challenge in global climate model in the perspective of Indian
summer monsoon
Anupam HazraIndian Institute of Tropical meteorology, Pune 411008, INDIA
Collaborators:Subodh K. Saha, H. S. Chaudhari, S. Pokhrel, B. N. Goswami, S. A. Rao, S. De
IWCMS Workshop, IITM, August 13, 2018
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One fifth of the world's population living in South Asia thrives on regular arrival of the summer monsoon.
Agriculture, food production & economy critically depends on monsoon rain (Gadgil & Gadgil 2006).
Deficient and excess monsoon have great impact on the economy and life in general.
Skillful seasonal forecast has potential for high impact on agriculture and water resource management.
Therefore, a reliable forecast of monsoon rainfall on the subseasonal (i.e., active-break cycle) to seasonal time scale (S2S) is important.
Why we need skillful ISMR prediction?
Background From: TOI
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However, it remained a grand challenge. Even today all model skill is rather limited!!
Challenges in Simulating the mean of the Indian Monsoon and seasonal prediction:
Conceptual basis for prediction skill beyond the limit of potential predictability
Targeted improvement of Simulation and Prediction of the Indian monsoon
Coupled global land-atmosphere-ocean model is essential for the simulation of ISM climate (Wang et al., 2005).
A dry bias in simulating JJAS precipitation over monsoon region is a generic problem (Rajeevan and Nanjundiah, 2009) and limits the skill.
Hope: Skill of present generation model (Rajeevan et al., 2012) higher than the earlier generation (models (Krishnakumar et al., 2005) indicate that
improvement of models lead to improvement of skill.
Climate model and prediction of ISMR
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What is the role of cloud microphysics in Indian summer monsoon?
Sikka & Gadgil (1980) investigated on the maximum cloud zone (MCZ) over Indian sub-continent during summer monsoon.
Wang et al. (2015) showed the cloud regime evolution in the Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (ISO peaks and troughs).
The vertical structure of cloud hydrometeors (e.g. cloud water and ice) associated with ISM are important (Rajeevan et al. 2013; Halder et al. 2012).
Cloud hydrometeors also have a large impact on the vertical profile of latent heating (Abhik et al. 2013; Kumar et al. 2014; Pokhrel et al., 2018).
The interaction among thermodynamics, cloud microphysics and dynamics plays a crucial role on the summer monsoon precipitating clouds (Hazra et al. 2013a,b; Kumar et al. 2014).
The hydrological and radiative fluxes strongly linked with cloud microphysical processes (Baker 1997).
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Cloud SAT: Cloud ice mixing ratio
all most all models have difficulty in reproducing the observed IWC
Waliser et al., 2009
Cloud microphysics
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Stratiform rain fraction plays a critical role in the organization of clouds and precipitation in MISOs [Kumar et al., 2017].
Vertical profile of heating as a result of increased contribution of stratiform rain fraction leads to better northward propagation of the MISO [Chattopadhyay et al., 2009; Choudhury & Krishnan, 2011].
Most climate models tend to produce too much convective precipitation and too little stratiform precipitation [Sabeerali et al., 2013; Saha, S. K. et al., 2014; Hazra et al., 2015] as compared to the observations [Pokhrel and Sikka 2013].
What is the role of microphysics & stratiform rain for ISM ?
Field & Heymsfiled (2015)
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A Model with high fidelity simulations of the MISOs will have high skill of Seasonal prediction of ISM.
Therefore: Target improving the biases in simulating the MISO in models. Potential double benefits: It would reduce biases in mean simulation Improve skill of Seasonal Prediction
Hypothesis
StrategySelect a Prediction system involving A CGCM and make systematic
improvement of physical processes on THAT CGCM (one aspect). The improvements on the CGCM will be targeted to improve the deficiency
(bias) of the model in simulating Indian monsoon.
Improve simulation of MISO Improve Mean ISM as well as skill of Seasonal Prediction
Under Monsoon Mission, We selected CFSv.2 as the base model for development and use in prediction of Indian Monsoon.
Lack of organization of clouds and precipitation on MISO scale in model simulations is one of the major deficiencies in simulating
the observed MISOs by climate models.
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Why NCEP coupled forecast system (CFSv2) for Indian
summer monsoon?
(a) Taylor plot showing the skill of models in simulating mean
seasonal cycle over Indian land points.
Major Biases of CFSv2
Surface rainfall: Dry biasTropospheric Temperature (TT): Cold bias
Bifurcation of convective and stratiform rain
Hazra et al. 2015b Saha et al. 2014
Model minus Observation
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MPI-ESM-LR MIROC5
CMCC-CMS FGOALS-g2
INMCM4
Tropospheric Temperature (TT) bias (averaged over 200 – 600 hPa) for CMIP5
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Co
nve
cti
ve/T
ota
l P
reci
pit
ati
on
(J
JAS
Cli
mat
olo
gy)
MPI-ESM-LR MIROC5
CMCC-CMS FGOALS-g2
INMCM4 TRMM-PR (3A25-L3)
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Cloud Microph
ysics
RadiationConvective
Land-surface
PBL
Find out the biases related to Cloud processes for ISM
Indentify the role warm /cold
microphysics
Which microphysical tendency terms are
important ?
Which cloud scheme in model ?
Long Free run simulation
Rectrospective/ Hindcast Run
Flow chart of Model Development
Modify the formulations
based on observations
Development
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Cloud properties in NCEP CFSv2
High Cloud Fraction (%) – CFSv2
High Cloud Fraction (%) - CALIPSO
100 – 400 hPa
Cloud condensate from CFSv2 and MERRA (mg/kg)
Phase (Ice or Liquid) of High Cloud Fraction (%) - CALIPSO
MERRA
Model
Hazra et al., 2015a
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Hazra et al, 2017, JGR
Observation
Basic understanding of warm and cold cloud microphysics in CGCM
High cloud fraction (%)
Model – CFSv2
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Which tendency equations in microphysical parameterization scheme should be targeted....
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Hazra et al. (2016), Clim Dyn
Precipitation - GPCP(mm/day)
Precipitation – TRMM 3B42(mm/day)
Snow accretion
Tendency - MERRA (mg/m^2/s)
Rain accretion
Auto-conversion
Role of Microphysical process rates (tendency terms) on ISM:
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Hazra et al. (2016),Clim Dyn
Ice phase in High Cloud - CALIPSO (%)High Cloud Fraction - CALIPSO (%)
Cloud ice mixing ratio - MERRA (mg/kg)Freezing of cloud ice - MERRA (mg/m^2/s)
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Choice of microphysical scheme for the development of Climate Forecast System (CFSv2)
Chaudhari et al., (2015)
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Strategy of model development on microphysical processes
The improvement in the large-scale organized convection and total precipitation is possible by the increase of stratiform rain fraction in models [Deng et al., 2016; Aayamohan et al., 2016; Song and Yu 2004].
Stratiform rain formation is intimately associated with the formation of cloud condensate, particularly the cloud ice and mixed-phase hydrometeors [Liu et al., 2007; Kumar et al., 2014; Field and Heymsfield 2015; Hazra et al., 2017].
Guided by observations under the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) [Kulkarni et al., 2012; Konwar et al., 2012; Prabha et al., 2011], a major modification to the existing cloud microphysics scheme in the CFSv2 is undertaken.
Observational guidance
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Microphysical Tendency
Microphysical Auto-conversion: cloud water to rain water auto-conversion Sundqvist et al., [1989]:
C0 :auto-conversion coefficient, ql : the clw and qlcrit : critical clw. b : cloud cover . qlcrit (Rotstayn 2000):
Modified production term Newly incorporated production term
rprcccrracw PqEP .. sprcccrsacw PqEP ..
Khain et al. 2015
Convective Auto-conversion: The precipitation formation from convective parameterization.
autoconversion function need to be modified as vary based on resolution (Wu et al., 2010).
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Results of ISM climate simulation using our physically based modified convective
microphysics (MCM) scheme in CFSv2
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10-100 day 20-100 day
TR
MM
GP
CP
CT
LM
CM
v.1
MC
Mv.
2Improvement of total
intraseasonal variance (ISV)
Hazra et al., (2017), JAMES
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Improvement of Space-time spectra of the low frequency 30-60 day mode
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Improvement the speed of northward propagation of ISOsRainfall
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Improvement in space-time evolution and northward propagation of the south-east to north-west tilted ITCZ (in
terms of phase and amplitudes)
GPCP CTL MCMv2
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JJAS mean rainfall
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Annual cycle of rainfall and Tropospheric Temperature gradient
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High Cloud Fraction (%)Hadley circulation
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Ratio of convective to stratiform rain (RCS)
Calculation of apparent heat source
(Q1)
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Lead–lag correlation betweenconvective rain and stratiform
S. Kumar et al., (2017)
Observation
CTL
MCMv.1
MCMv.2
Hazra et al., (2017)
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A physically based modified convective microphysics scheme is implemented in the NCEP CFSv2.
A truly remarkable simulation of the observed space-time spectra and amplitude of MISOs , northward propagation speed, which in turn leads to a significant simulation of the observed seasonal mean and annual cycle of ISMR.
This breakthrough in monsoon model development has happened for the right reasons as all circulation and thermodynamic fields (e.g., tropical easterly jet, tropospheric temperature, high cloud fraction, stratiform rain fraction) are consistently improved.
High fidelity in the simulation of MISOs in association with improved stratiform rain fraction leads to the improved seasonal mean ISMR.
Conclusions
This development may lead to improve ISMR skill.
IAV of rainfall based indices using observation (solid line) and both Exp1 (line with star) and Exp2 (line with open circle) for (c) EIMR (65–95E, 5–35 N).
(Pokhrel et al. 2018)
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Need 2-moment microphysical parameterization to account aerosol effect in Global climate model.
Future
Classical nucleation theory based heterogeneous ice nucleation
parameterization(Chen-Hazra-Levin, 2008;
Hoose-Kristjansson-Chen-Hazra 2010)
Cloud Condensation NucleiIce Nuclei
Sp
ectr
omet
er f
or I
ce N
ucl
ei
Interaction between aerosol (CCN), dynamics and cloud microphysics on
transition of MISO(Hazra-Goswami-Chen, 2013)
CC
N C
oun
ter
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Thank you for the kind attention…
Questions ???
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Backup ……..
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Outgoing Long-wave radiation (OLR)
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Cold-cloud microphysics or Ice-phase microphysics
Nucleation
Empirical ice nucleation
supi TbexpaN
bS )]1/(1S[N 0ii
bSTba )]1/(1S).[.exp(.N 0isupi
))16.273.((0i 273.16N dTcb NTa
Fletcher 1962
Huffman 1973
Cotton 1986; Mayers 1992
DeMott et al. 2010
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Chen-Hazra-Levin (2008), ACP; Hoose, Kristjansson, Chen, Hazra (2010), JAS
Ice microphysics
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Montmorillonite (Welti et al , 2009)
Soot (M. Jargelius)
Pseudomonas aeruginosa (J. H. Carr)
Birch pollen (J. Derksen)
Chen-Hazra-Levin (2008), ACP; Hoose, Kristjansson, Chen, Hazra (2010), JAS
Properties of IN:1. Particle radius2. Activation energy3. Wetting coefficient or contact angle
A’ & Δgg are ambient parameter