COVID-19India Economic MonitorFebruary 2021 Update
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COVID-19 Executive Summary
Source: MoHFW, POSOCO, MOSPI, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, RBI, GST Network, NPCI, NETC, Ministry of Railways, AAI, JNPT, AIOCD, mFMS, Joint Plant Committee, Ministry of Steel, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, SIAM, CMIE, IRDAI, Ministry of Finance, GST Council, Ministry of Rural Development, Analyst reports, BCG analysis
Trends across key economic indicators• Industrial Activity: Daily avg. power consumption continued to witness a 5% YoY growth in Jan'21; fuel consumption YoY gap widened to -4% in Jan'21
compared to -2% YoY in Dec'20; Index of Industrial Production improved to 1% YoY growth in Dec'20 after witnessing contraction in Nov'20• Trade: In Jan'21, Merchandize exports & imports saw YoY growth (6% & 2%); Services imports YoY gap improved while exports YoY gap marginally widened in
Dec'20• Logistics: FASTag transactions increased 7% vs. Dec'20 in Jan'21; E-way bills grew at 10% YoY in Jan'21; JNPT traffic continued to grow YoY in Jan'21; Air & rail
passenger traffic improved in Dec'20-Jan'21 vs. previous months, however still significantly far from pre-COVID levels• Financial Services: Aggregate deposits & bank credit improved vs. previous months; YoY growth rate dipped in the last week of Jan'21 vs previous weeks;
Value of UPI transactions continued to hit all time high levels, reaching INR 4.31 Tn (~100% YoY growth) in Jan'21• Sector-wise Impact: PVs, 2W & tractor sales continued to grow YoY in Jan'21 (PV sales grew 2%, 2W sales grew 10%, tractor sales grew 48% YoY), 3W continued
to see YoY de-growth; Pharma sales continued to grow vs. last year in Dec'20; Fertilizer sales continued to see a contraction vs. last year levels, though YoY gap improved in Jan'21; Consumption of steel continued to grow in Jan'21 vs. last year; Both Life and Non-life insurance premium observed an uptick vs. last year levels in Jan'21
• Macroeconomic Indicators: GST collections continued to grow vs. last year for the 5th month in Jan'21, hitting record high levels; MGNREGA work demand & employment trended at 30%+YoY levels
• Sentiment: Urban consumer sentiment improved while rural remained at the same level in Jan'21 vs. Dec'20, rural sentiment remained better than urban sentiment; Both Manufacturing & Services PMI remained beyond the 50-point mark in Jan'21 (57.7 & 52.8 respectively), witnessing an uptick vs. Dec'20 levels; Improvement in value of stock market transactions in Jan'21 vs. previous months; Mutual funds AUM continued to grow vs. last year levels in Jan'21
Jan'21 continued to show recovery across indicators. Select indicators hit record high levels (e.g., GST collections, UPI transactions, forex reserves). Merchandize trade witnessed positive YoY growth; Auto sales, steel consumption, insurance premium grew vs. last year levels; CPI (inflation rate) eased to 4.06% vs. 6+% highs in the previous months; GDP projections saw an upward revision at 6-10% YoY contraction for this financial year.
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0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
20-Dec
20-Jan
20-Feb
20-Sep
20-Jun
Total cases
20-Jul
20-Aug
20-0ct-20
20-Nov
2.8x2.3x
1.8x
1.4.x1.2x
1.1x 1.0x 1.0x
Deaths Recovered Active cases
Total cases 5.4M 10M
Active cases 1M 302k
Days Doubling Rate 34 282
Recovery Rate 80.1% 95.5%
Test Positivity Rate 8.5% 6.2%
Fatality Rate 1.6% 1.5%
Source: Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW); covid19india.org; BCG analysis
7.6M
739k
88
88.8%
7.9%
1.5%
Active COVID-19 case count on a decline with improvement in recovery rate and days doubling rateData as of 20 Feb
1.1M
401k
18
62.8%
8.0%
2.4%
2.9M
690k
29
74.3%
8.7%
1.9%
9M
442k
186
93.6%
6.9%
1.5%
10.6M
189k
518
96.7%
5.6%
1.4%
142k
10.9M
626
97.2%
5.2%
1.4%
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.India's Investment Climate in 20202
Economic Indicators1
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Sector-wise ImpactCement Production MT -25% -15% -4% 3% -7% -10% NASteel Sales MT -23% -8% -1% 1% 23% 18% 13%Passenger Vehicle Sales k -50% -2% 13% 9% -3% 7% 2%Tractor Sales k -50% 65% 27% 9% 48% 41% 48%Two-wheeler Sales k -36% 0.2% 11% 18% 13% 11% 10%Fertilizer Sales MT 18% -9% -11% 9% -10% -14% -5%Gross Premium (Life) INR -32% 15% 26% 32% -27% -3% 4%Gross Premium (Non-Life) INR -11% 10% -4% -0.4% 3% 12% 7%Pharma. Sales INR 9% -2% 4% 10% 1% 8% NAChemical Production Index Index -2% -4% 0% 3% 5% 5% NAMacroeconomic IndicatorsTotal GST Collection INR -8% -12% 4% 10% 1% 12% 8%Central Govt. Expenditure INR Tn 2.2 1.9 2.3 1.8 2.4 3.7 NAMGNREGA Jobs Demand HHs 2% 67% 71% 89% 50% 56% 39%MGNREGA Jobs Provided HHs -1% 63% 65% 83% 47% 47% 32%No. of Tenders Announced k -4% 80% 110% 201% 127% 253% 68%FDI Inflow USD Bn 4.9 18.7 4.1 5.1 6.9 NA NAFII USD Bn -15.0 5.6 1.4 3.0 9.8 NA NASentimentIndia VIX Index 64.4 22.8 19.5 24.8 19.8 21.1 25.3PMI (Manufacturing) Index 51.8 52.0 56.8 58.9 56.3 56.4 57.7PMI (Services) Index 49.3 41.8 49.8 54.1 53.7 52.3 52.8
Data for 2020; YoY growth represented for all indicators (except for India VIX, PMI, Central govt. expenditure, FDI, and FII where absolute values are represented)Source: POSOCO, PPAC, MoSPI, RBI, Ministry of Comm. and Industry, GST Network, Ministry of Railways, JNPT, AAI, NPCI, JPC, Ministry of Steel, SIAM, CMIE, mFMS, IRDAI, AIOCD, American Chemistry Council, GST Council, Ministry of Finance, Controller General of Accounts, Ministry of Rural Development, Projects Today, Bloomberg, NSE, BSE, IHS Markit, BCG analysis
Summary: Jan'21 trends continued to show improvement across most indicators, with most indicators exceeding last year levels
Industrial Activity
Power Consumption MU -10% -2% 3% 10% 4% 5% 5%
Petroleum Consumption MT -18% -16% -4% 2% -3% -2% -4%
Index of Industrial Prod. Index -18% -7% 1% 4% -2% 1% NA
Trade
Services Export USD 1% -10% -1% -6% -5% -6% NA
Services Import USD -2% -20% -9% -12% -12% -8% NA
Merchandize Export USD -35% -13% 6% -5% -9% -1% 6%
Merchandize Import USD -29% -26% -20% -12% -13% 8% 2%
Logistics
E-Way Bills Generated Mn -26% -4% 9% 21% 8% 16% 10%
Railway Freight Originated MT -14% 4% 16% 15% 9% 9% NA
JNPT Container Traffic TEUs -13% -19% -5% 5% 8% 10% 9%
Air Freight kT -32% -30% -16% -14% -13% -9% NA
Air Passenger Traffic Mn -38% -79% -70% -62% -57% -50% NA
Rail Passengers Booked Mn -39% -97% -94% -91% -83% -73% -67%
Financial Services
UPI Transactions Mn 24% 93% 104% 102% 107% 105% 99%
Total Bank Credit INR 6.1% 5.5% 5.2% 5.4% 5.8% 5.9% 6.3%
Total Bank Deposits INR 8.5% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.8% 11.3% 11.3%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Indicator Unit Mar Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Indicator Unit Mar Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJan Jan
2020 20212020 2021
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Daily Average Power Consumption Volume ('000s MUs)
IIP1 (Index of Industrial Production) & ICI2 (Index of Core Industries)3
1
0
3
4
2
3.9
2.8
3.8 3.73.2
Apr-2
0
3.8
3.3
3.2
May
-20
Oct
-20
4.0
3.6
Jun-
20
3.7
Jul-2
0
3.6
Aug-
20
3.6
3.7
3.8
Sep-
20
3.6 3.3N
ov-2
0
3.3
3.5
Dec
-20
3.2
3.4
Jan-
21
Mar
-20
3.6
2019-20 2020-21
-20% -9%
5
0
10
15
20
Mar
-20
17.8
Apr-2
0
Dec
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
15.5
Jul-2
0
Aug-
20
Sep-
20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
9.4
15.4 16.1 15.6 15.517.9 18.6 18.0
15.9
-49%
Consumption of Petroleum Products (in MMT)4
-13%
Power consumption continued to grow & fuel consumption continued to dip YoY in Jan'21; IIP improved in Dec'20, witnessing YoY growth
INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY
1
1. Index of Industrial Production (IIP) shows the growth rates in different industry groups (comprises of Mfg. (78% weightage), Mining (14%), Electricity (8%))2. Index of Core Industries (ICI) measures performance of production in 8 core industries (Coal, Crude, NG, Refinery Products, Fertilizers, Steel, Cement & Electricity)3. In view of the effect of the containment measures for COVID-19 pandemic, the indices for Apr-20 & May-20 are not comparable with preceding months4. Petroleum products include LPG, Naphtha, MS, ATF, SKO, HSD, LDO, Lubricants & Greases, FO & LSHS, Bitumen, coke as reported (provisional) by Petroleum Planning & Analysis CellSource: Power System Operation Corporation, Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, Dept. for Promotion of Industry & Internal Trade, PPAC, BCG analysis
-16%YoYgrowth -3%2%-16% -4%-10% -2%-3% 3% 10% 4%
117
90
108118 117
124 129 126136
133
81
108116
123 120 121 126 127134
0
50
100
150
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep-
20
Nov
-20
Apr-2
0
Jun-
20
Aug-
20
Oct
-20
Dec
-20
54
-11%-57% -17%-33% -7%
IIP ICIIIPYoY growth
1% 4% -2%5% 5% -4%1%-2%-25%-10% -19% -19%
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Merchandize trade improved, registering YoY growth in Jan'21; Services import YoY gap improved in Dec'20
MERCHANDIZE & SERVICES TRADE
2
Apr-20 May-20 Nov-20
33.4
Jun-20
17.1
Jul-20
21.4 22.721.1
Oct-20Sep-20
42.6
33.629.5
Aug-20 Dec-20Mar-20
27.5
Jan-211
28.5
10.3
19.1
42.0
22.221.9
31.223.6 27.6
30.324.9 23.5
26.9
Merchandize Exports Merchandize Imports
1. Jan'21 Merchandize Import & Export numbers, Dec'20 Service Import & Export numbers are provisional as provided by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on 15th Feb'21Source: RBI, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, BCG analysis
Merchandize Trade (USD Bn) Services Trade (USD Bn)
-60% -36% -12%ExportsYoY growth
-10%
-60% -52% -48%ImportsYoY growth
-28%
-13%
-26%
Jul-20
16.4
May-20 Oct-20 Nov-20
10.1
Sep-20Jun-20
18.7
10.0
Apr-20 Aug-20 Dec-20
9.6
16.518.2
9.3
16.8 16.6
9.9
17.0
10.0
17.0 17.3
9.5
17.1
11.510.1
Mar-20
11.1
Services Exports Services Imports
-9% -8%-10%
-18% -15%-20%
-11%
-22%-20%
6% -10%
-20%
-1%
-9%
-5%
-12%
-6%
-12%
-9%
-13% 8%
-1% -5%
-12%
6%
2%
-6%
-8%
-35%
-29%
1%
-2%
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.85
1055
82 87 97
30
0
150
60
90
120
Apr-2
0
Jul-2
0
May
-20
Jun-
20
Aug-
20
110
Sep-
20
122
Mar
-20
Oct
-20
125
Nov
-20
138
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
149
+7%
50
0
70
10
20
30
40
60
Apr-2
0
May
-20
Dec
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
49.4Se
p-20
8.6
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
64.2
Jan-
2125.5
43.448.4
57.464.1
57.762.9
Mar
-20
40.7
Aug-
20
-2%
-84% 18% 437% 48%MoMgrowth
YoYgrowth
-53% 6%-7%
E-way bill & FASTag transaction volumes grew YoY in Jan'21;Rail freight continued to grow vs. last year & previous months in Jan'21
3
1. E-Way bills are required to be generated at the time of transport of goods by every registered person if the value of the consignment exceeds INR 50,000; 2. As per announcement by NHAI; 3. High YoY growth due to drop in e-way bills in Jun-19; due to new provision introduced limiting generation of E-Way bills if the GST Return filing pending for last 2 monthsSource: GST Network, NHAI, NPCI, Ministry of Railways, CEIC data, BCG analysis
E-way bills1 generated(Mn)
FASTag transaction volume (Mn)
Railway freight traffic originating (Mn Tons)
12%-4% 9% 14%
30
0
60
90
120
103.1
65.4
93.6
Apr-2
0
118.3
82.6
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Jun-
20
95.2 94.6
Aug-
20
102.3
Sep-
20
108.3
Oct
-20
110.1
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-20
+7%
-35% -21% -8%YoYgrowth
-5% 4%21% 11% 16%
LOGISTICS
8% 15%2% 11%16% 9%10% 7% 9%-14%-23%-26%
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.
0
350
10050
300
150200250
400450500
284
Dec
-20
Apr-2
0
275
May
-20
Jun-
20
344
Jul-2
0
380353
Aug-
20
Sep-
20423
Mar
-20
Oct
-20
414
Nov
-20
460 465
Jan-
21
410
289133
4076
107 123 128 144 148 142 150
77
7
5669 76
95 111 101 107180150
0
120
3060
270240210
90
Dec
-20
258
May
-20
239
Aug-
20
Apr-2
0
19
Jun-
20
210
Sep-
20
Jul-2
0
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
47
95
163192 204
259244
Mar
-20
-37% -39% -29% -83% -68%YoYgrowth
YoYgrowth
Domestic International
-13% -20% -40% -34%
JNPT traffic continued to improve in Jan'21; Air Freight YoY gap improved in Dec'20 vs. Apr-Nov'20 levels, though below last year levels
LOGISTICS
3
JNPT Container Traffic ('000s TEUs1) Air Freight (k Tons)
1. TEU refers to Twenty-foot equivalent unit equivalent to 20 shipping containers (20 feet long, 8 feet tall)Source: Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust, Airport Authority of India, BCG analysis
-19% -5% -30%5% -16% -14%8% -13%10% -9%9% -32%
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YoYgrowth
Air & rail passenger traffic saw improvement vs. Apr-Nov'20 levels, though still significantly below last year levels
LOGISTICS
3
Source: Ministry of Railways, CEIC data, Airport Authority of India, BCG analysis
3
15
4 4 6 810
13 14
30
0
May
-20
010
Apr-2
0
11
14
0 0 0
Jun-
20
1
Jul-2
0
1
Aug-
20
1
Sep-
20
Oct
-20
1 1
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
18
4 56
811
16
Mar
-20
InternationalDomestic
Air Passengers (Mn)
-100% -98% -85% -84% -79%
436
-8 -4
4 15 22 3962
122
190239
0
150
250
400350300
-50
50100
200
450
Jun-
20
Sep-
20
Jul-2
0
Apr-2
0
May
-20
Aug-
20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Mar
-20
Railway Passenger Bookings (Mn)
-101% -101% -100% -98% -97% -94%
Negative volume represents net higher
refunds as compared to new bookings in that
month
-70% -91%-62% -57% -83% -73% -67%-50%-38% -39%
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11.1 11.0 10.912.0
10.5 10.5 10.110.8 10.9 11.3 11.3 11.4
0
15
0
5140
10
150
145
147.
18
18-D
ec
143.
70
15-Ja
n
31-Ju
l
145.
83
140.
7914
-Aug
29-Ja
n
141.
75
144.
83
28-A
ug
142.
48
04-D
ec
11-S
ep
146.
25
142.
6225
-Sep
143.
02
144.
03
142.
92
06-N
ov
20-N
ov
01-Ja
n
09-O
ct
147.
98
23-O
ct
141.
60
11.4 11.1
YoY growth Aggregate bank deposits
5.7 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.75.1
5.8 5.8 5.7 6.1 6.6 6.4 5.9
15
0
102
105
0
5
10
103.
39
106.
96
25-S
ep
06-N
ov
28-A
ug
105.
50
102.
2811
-Sep
102.
72
103.
4309
-Oct
23-O
ct
104.
19
102.
16
104.
35
102.
82
102.
20
105.
05
107.
05
04-D
ec
18-D
ec
31-Ju
l
01-Ja
n
15-Ja
n
29-Ja
n
106.
41
14-A
ug
20-N
ov
YoY growth Aggregate bank credit
Bank credit (INR Tn)
Aggregate deposits & bank credit improved vs. previous months, however the YoY growth rate dipped in the last week of Jan'21 vs previous weeks
FINANCIAL SERVICES
4
Total deposits value & YoY growth aggregated for all banks
Total credit outstanding value & YoY growth aggregated for all banks
Source: RBI DBIE, Press search, BCG analysis
YoY growth (%)Bank deposits (INR Tn) YoY growth (%)
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Value of UPI transactions in Jan'21 continued to spike by ~100% vs. previous year levels, hitting new milestones
4
Source: NPCI
0.0
1.8
2.7
4.5
3.6
0.9
2.06
Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20
2.16
Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20
4.16
2.23
Value of transactions in INR Tn
3.86
Aug-20
1.51
Jan-20 Feb-20
2.18
Mar-20
2.622.91
3.29
3.91
Jan-21
4.31
2.98 +99%
+4%
1.251.331.31 1.00 1.501.23 1.34
YoY%
Volume of Txn in Bn.
1.61
FINANCIAL SERVICES
1.80 2.07 2.21 2.23 2.30
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Consumption of steel continued to grow in Jan'21 vs. last year; Cement production fell in Dec'20 vs. last year levels
5SECTOR-WISE IMPACT
YoY growth
-15%
0.4
0
2
4
6
2.0
5.2
Jun-
20
Mar
-20
4.1
Apr-2
0
4.5
May
-20
3.5 4.0
Jul-2
0
Aug-
20
4.7Ja
n-21
Sep-
20
4.5
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
5.7D
ec-2
05.5
Long Steel Consumption
Consumption of Long Steel (in MMT)
-43%
0
2
4
6
4.4
Aug-
20
Sep-
20
Apr-2
0
Jul-2
0
May
-20
Jun-
20
0.6
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
2.1 2.53.8 4.0 3.8
4.4 4.5 4.9
Mar
-20
3.2
Flat Steel Consumption
Consumption of Flat Steel (in MMT)
-56% -51%-12% -6%
Source: Joint Plant Committee, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Livemint, CMIE, BCG Analysis
-5%-10% -7%6%
Cement Production (in MT)
0
10
20
30
27.0
Jul-2
0
22.4
May
-20
Apr-2
0
Jun-
20
24.226.424.220.9
Aug-
20
Sep-
20
27.5
Oct
-20
Mar
-20
25.3
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
24.8
4.3
Cement Production
-7%-21% -14% -15% -4%4%-3% 3%12%34% -7%19%18% -10%22% 4%-5% -90% -85%-25%-38%
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Passenger vehicle, 2W & tractor sales continued to grow vs. last year levels while 3W sales continued to dip in Jan'21 vs. last year
5SECTOR-WISE IMPACT
Figures represent wholesale numbers (including exports).1. Tata Motors data is available for Apr-June only, BMW, Mercedes and Volvo Auto data is not available Source: SIAM, CMIE, Press search, BCG analysis
Passenger vehicles sales ('000 units) Two-wheeler sales ('0000 units)
Tractor sales ('000 units) Three-wheeler sales ('000 units)
-48% -45%
-2% 13% 9% 0.2% 11% 18%
-39%
-3% 13%
-41%YoY growth
27% 9% 48%
7% 11%
-35%41%
Aug
73
Oct
114
SepApr JulJunMay Dec Jan
62
12
65 6582
Nov
7152
7144
92116 124
6088
5190
72 5759
Mar
35
99
-80% 1% 20% 36% 65%
360305 286 266 251 259
276322
311 289 327
181
4 49130
217 254311 351 303 310
306314
NovOctSepJunApr May Jul Aug Dec JanMar
205
SepMar AugMayApr
182
Jun Oct JanJul Nov Dec
240
5
202
38
195121 146
181 182 196 218 165242171 193
135 150184 182169
109
11592 91 92 96 105 111 112 104 95 98
54
7 2036 33
54 61 69 61 61
10467
Aug OctSepApr NovJunMay Jul Dec JanMar
-66%-61%-78%-92%
-20%-38%-81%-98%-14%-51%YoY growth -99% -83%
2019 2020 2021
-36%48%
10%2%-50% -36%
-53%-50%
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Pharma sales continued to grow vs. last year in Dec'20; Fertilizer sales continued to contract vs. last year levels in Jan'21
5SECTOR-WISE IMPACT
1. Indian Chemical Production Index refers to a 3-month moving average figure for chemicals production with figure for 2012 as base figure (100)Source: AIOCD, American Chemistry Council, Mobile Based Fertilizer Management System (mFMS), Ministry of Finance, PIB, The Economic Times, Press search, BCG analysis
Pharmaceutical Sales (INR k Cr)
Fertilizer Sales (in LMT)
Indian Chemical Production Index1 (3mo. moving avg.)
YoY growth
Apr-2
0
Oct
-20
May
-20
Nov
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Sep-
2013.0
Dec
-20
Aug-
20
10.2 10.311.2
12.1 12.213.2 13.5 12.8
Mar
-20
11.8
10%-9% 2%-11% 0.2% -2% 4% 1% 8%
Apr-2
0
Sep-
20
Nov
-20
May
-20
40
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
49
Aug-
20
29
Oct
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
21
69
92
69
47
6674
61
Mar
-20
45% 98% 79% 34% -9% -11% 9% -10% -14%
11598
85 87103
113 117 118 121 123
Apr-2
0
Nov
-20
May
-20
Aug-
20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Sep-
20
Oct
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-20
-16% -27% -26% -12% -4% 0% 3% 5% 5%-5%9% 18% -2%
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19%
Both Life and Non-life insurance premium observed an uptick vs. last year levels in Jan'21
5
Life Insurance premium observed 4% growth in Jan'21 Non-Life1 Insurance premium grew 7% YoY in Jan'21
24,122
15,92214,586
16,04917,334
23,057
15,85514,981
17,936 18,488
Jan-20Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Sep-20 Nov-20 Dec-20Oct-20 Jan-21
+7%
1. Non-Life Insurance includes Fire, Marine, Motor, Engineering, Health, Cop Insurance, Credit Guarantee, Aviation, Personnel accident and Miscellaneous Source: IRDAI, BCG Analysis
20,05717,272
26,221 25,080
20,623
25,36622,776
19,159
24,38321,390
Nov-20Jan-20Nov-19Sep-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Sep-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Jan-21
+4%
Number of policies
(‘000)
YoY growth rate for no. of policies
Premium (INR Cr.)
2648 3022
14%
SECTOR-WISE IMPACT
Premium (INR Cr.)
2343 2291
-2%
2237 2087
-7%
4018 2111
-47%
4691 3187
-32%
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Central Govt.'s revenue & expenditure continued to increase YoY in Dec'20; GST collections hit record high levels, growing 8% YoY in Jan'21
Central Govt. Revenue & Expenditure (INR Tn)(based on data from Controller General of Accounts, Ministry of Finance)
Total GST Collections3 (INR Tn)(based on data from GST Council)
-38% -9%
ExpenditureYoY growth
1. Bloomberg Quint 2. Gross Fiscal Deficit is the difference between the total Non-Debt Receipts of the government (revenue receipts and non-debt capital receipts) and Total expenditure 3. GST Collections include all components: CGST, SGST, IGST, CessSource: Ministry of Finance, GST Council, BCG analysis
2
2 -1
0
0
3
4
6 1
8
10
-2
1.9
2.0
Mar
-20
May
-20
3.0
0.3
3.1
Nov
-20
2.4
Jul-2
0
Expe
nditu
re &
Rec
eipt
s (IN
R T
n)
1.6
Aug-
20
Apr-2
0
2.2
1.21.9
Jun-
20
Dec
-20
0.5 0.4
2.8
0.4
Oct
-20
0.8
1.40.2
Gross Fiscal D
eficit (INR
Tn)
1.12.4
3.7
0.81.4
2.0
1.8
1.2Se
p-20
2.9
3.2
-1.0
1.92.3
Non-Debt ReceiptsTotal Expenditure Gross Fiscal Deficit2
0.6
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.8
1.0
1.2
Jul-2
0
1.15
Nov
-20
0.32
1.05
Jan-
21
May
-20To
tal G
ST C
olle
ctio
ns (I
NR
Tn)
0.98
Sep-
20
Jun-
20
Aug-
20
1.05
Oct
-20
Dec
-20
0.62
0.91 0.87 0.860.95
1.20
Mar
-20
Apr-2
0
RevenueYoY growth
-15%
21% -21%
-72% -64%
46%
-24%
6%
-28%
6MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
-12%YoY growth
4%-35%
-15%
10%-13%
-26%
1%47%
9%
12%
48%
58% 8%
29%
76% -72%-8%
80%
-2%
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MGNREGA work demand & employment trended at 30%+YoY levels after trending at 40%+ YoY levels in previous months
6
160
390
50
100
150
200
Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Nov-20Sep-20
20
Jan-21Jul-20
33
Aug-20 Oct-20
20
Dec-20Mar-2011 28 2120 18 21
80%YoYGrowth 56%-35%
Work Demand (households, in Mn)
Employment Provided (households, in Mn)
21 13
37 4532 24 24 24 23 27 26
01020304050
Apr-20 Nov-20Oct-20May-20 Jul-20Jun-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Jan-21Mar-20
74%YoYGrowth 49%-37% 74%
83%
MGNREGA refers to Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee ActSource: Ministry of Labor & Employment, Ministry of Rural Development, The Indian Express, Outlook India, LiveMint, BCG analysis
63%
67%
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
65%
71% 89%
83%
50%
47%
56%
47%
39%
32%
2%
-1%
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Organized sector hiring & joining activity remained at similar levels in Jan'21 vs. Dec'20 (based on select indicators)
6
1. Jan-20 level considered as pre-COVID-19 level 2. Active members refers to total contributing members during last one year as published on EPFO dashboard as on 21-Sep-20; 3. Covers every establishment in which 20+ people are employed and certain organizations are covered, subject to certain conditions and exemptions even if they employ less than 20 persons each 4. Net EPF additions are revised monthly as per the EPFO dataSource: Ministry of Labor and Employment, InfoEdge, Naukri.com, BCG analysis
Naukri Jobspeak Index dipped in Jan'21
Net New EPF Subscriber Trend
Net new EPF subscribers are net of the members newly enrolled, exited and rejoined during the month as per records of the EPFO
Employees in an establishment3 drawing less than INR 15,000 per month are mandated to become members of the EPF upon joining
Net new EPF subscribers improved to ~1+ Mn (Sep-Nov'20), higher than last year & previous month levels
Naukri Jobspeak Index
Monthly index which calculates and records hiring activity based on newly added job listings on Naukri.com every month
Jobs analyzed for the monthly index are qualified on the basis of white-collar jobs belonging to the organized corporate sector
100 101
82
40 3851 53 59
74 74 7383 81
0
50
100
150
Oct-20 Nov-20Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Jan-21Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Dec-20
Naukri Jobspeak Index
Jan-201
number taken as base for
index (100)
Net new EPF Subscriber (in Mn)
0.0
0.5
1.5
1.0
-0.5Sep’20
0.58
1.33
0.540.81
0.640.57
Mar’20
0.50
-0.21
Apr’20
0.31
-0.19
May’20
0.620.22
Oct’20Jun’20
0.690.34
Jul’20
0.73
Aug’20
1.060.83
1.01
Nov’20
2019
2020
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
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WPI increased from 1.22% to 2.03% while CPI eased again to 4.06% in Jan'21
6
1. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated as year on year increase in prices of the commodities 2. The wholesale price index (WPI) measures and tracks the changes in the price of goods in the stages before the retail level –that is, goods that are sold in bulk and traded between entities or businesses instead of consumers. It is calculated as year on year increase in prices of the commoditiesNote: In May 2016, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act, 1934 was amended to provide a statutory basis for the implementation of the flexible inflation targeting framework. Source: BCG Analysis. DPIIT, MOSPI, Office of the Economic Advisor - Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade,CMIE
Monthly inflation rate (%)
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.2
2.82.0
1.2 1.20.3 0.0
2.83.5
2.3
0.2
1.3 1.5 1.6 1.22.0
5
-5
10
0
Feb-
19Ja
n-19
Apr-1
9M
ay-1
9
Oct
-19
Jun-
19Ju
l-19
Aug-
19Se
p-19
0.6
Nov
-19
May
-20
Dec
-19
Mar
-19
-0.6
Feb-
20
Jul-2
0
0.4
Mar
-20
Jan-
21
-1.6
Apr-2
0
-3.4
-1.8Ju
n-20
Oct
-20
Aug-
20Se
p-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
20
Wholesale Price Index (WPI)2 Consumer Price Index (CPI)1
2.62.9
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.1
4.0
7.47.6
7.2
6.3
6.26.7 6.7
7.37.6
6.9
4.1
8
6
2
0
4
Feb-
19
Jul-1
9
Jan-
19
Jun-
19
Mar
-19
Apr-1
9
Oct
-19
May
-19
Oct
-20
3.3
Feb-
20
Aug-
19
Dec
-20
Aug-
20
4.6
Dec
-19
5.5
Nov
-19
Jan-
20
6.6
5.8
Mar
-20
Apr-2
0M
ay-2
0Ju
n-20
Jul-2
0
Sep-
20
Nov
-20
4.6
2.0
Jan-
21
Sep-
19
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
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Jan-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep-
20
Jan-
21
Jan'21 repo, reverse repo rate and MCLR on bank borrowings remained at the same levels; base rate improved vs. Dec'20
1. MCLR: Minimum interest rate at which scheduled commercial banks can lend to customers (based on incremental cost of funds). Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate was introduced from April 2016 for fixing interest rates, and replaced the former Base rate methodology (based on average cost of funds). 2. Base Rate: Minimum rate set by the Reserve Bank of India below which banks are not allowed to lend to its customers 3. Repo Rate: Interest rate at which the RBI lends short term funds to licensed commercial banks 4. Reverse Repo Rate: Interest rate which the RBI borrows money from commercial banksSource: CMIE, RBI DBIE
Reserve bank’s policy rates (%) MCLR1 of scheduled commercial banks (Median rate on one-year borrowings, in %)
8.29
4.00
3
6
9
12
Nov
-20
Jun-
20
Feb-
20
Apr-2
0
Aug-
20
Oct
-20
Dec
-20
Policy rate %
3.35
Base rate 2 Reverse Repo rate4Repo rate3
7.32
8.40
6.05
3
6
9
12
Jan-
21
May
-20
Nov
-20
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
Jul-2
0
Dec
-20
Aug-
20
Sep-
20
Feb-
20
Apr-2
0
Jun-
20
Oct
-20
MCLR (%)
7.30
Total
Public Sector Banks Foreign Banks
Private Sector Banks
6MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
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INR remained rangebound at ~73/dollar; Forex reserves continued to reach new peaks, at ~590 USD Bn in Jan'21
Source: CMIE, RBI
Exchange Rate (INR/USD) Forex reserves (USD Billion)
6MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
74.6773.89 73.89
72.97 73.02
20-D
ec-2
0
27-D
ec-2
0
6-D
ec-2
0
1-N
ov-2
0
13-D
ec-2
0
29-N
ov-2
0
8-N
ov-2
0
22-N
ov-2
0
15-N
ov-2
0
3-Ja
n-21
10-Ja
n-21
17-Ja
n-21
24-Ja
n-21
80
31-Ja
n-21
70
75
Exchange Rate (INR/USD)
73.01
546 552 555 561 561 568 573 575 575 579 579 581 581 585 586 584 585 590
2-O
ct-2
0
9-O
ct-2
0
16-O
ct-2
0
13-N
ov-2
0
23-O
ct-2
0
20-N
ov-2
0
30-O
ct-2
0
6-N
ov-2
0
15-Ja
n-21
27-N
ov-2
0
4-D
ec-2
0
11-D
ec-2
0
18-D
ec-2
0
25-D
ec-2
0
1-Ja
n-21
8-Ja
n-21
22-Ja
n-21
29-Ja
n-21
Forex reserves (USD Billion)
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Both Manufacturing and Services PMI saw an uptick in Jan'21 vs. Dec'20 levels, remaining above the 50-point mark
SENTIMENT –MFG. & SERVICES PMI
7
Note: The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a measure of the prevailing direction of economic trends in manufacturing and services sectors. The PMI is based on a monthly survey of supply chain managers across 19 industries, covering both upstream and downstream activity. Value >50 indicates possible expansion in the sector, and value <50 indicates recession.Source: IHS Markit, CMIE, Analyst Reports, BCG analysis
Manufacturing PMI reached 57.7 in Jan'21, an uptick from the Dec'20 mark
Services PMI improved to 52.8 in Jan'21, compared to the 52.3 mark in Dec'20
Manufacturing PMI Services PMI
Possible expansion
in the sector
Possible contraction in the sector
49.3
33.7
49.854.1 53.7 52.3 52.8
05
10152025303540455055
Sep-
20
Jul-2
0
Mar
-20
May
-20
Nov
-20
Oct
-20
Jan-
21
Apr-2
0
Jun-
20
Aug-
20
Dec
-20
12.6
41.850
34.2
5.4
51.847.2
46.0
52.056.8 58.9
56.3 56.4 57.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Apr-2
0
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep-
20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
Dec
-20
Jun-
20
Aug-
20
Oct
-20
30.8
50
27.4
Possible expansion
in the sector
Possible contraction in the sector
Manufacturing PMI exceeded the global PMI levels of 53.5 in
Jan'21
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Consumer sentiment still far below pre-COVID levels;Rural sentiment remained better than urban sentiment in Jan'21
SENTIMENT-CONSUMER SENTIMENT
7
Source: CMIE Consumer Pyramids Survey
CMIE Consumer Sentiment Survey Rural Consumer Sentiment Index
109 106 97
49 44 45 45 51 50 56 55 56 56
0
50
100
150
May
’20
Jan’
20
Oct
’20
Mar
’20
Feb’
20
Apr’2
0
Jun’
20
Jul’2
0
Aug’
20
Sep’
20
Nov
’20
Dec
’20
Jan’
21
-49%
102 104 96
40 37 40 40 38 40 47 46 48 50
0
50
100
150
Feb’
20
Jan’
20
Mar
’20
Apr’2
0
May
’20
Jun’
20
Jul’2
0
Aug’
20
Sep’
20
Oct
’20
Nov
’20
Jan’
21
Dec
’20
-50%
Sample Size• 1.74L households in 90 cities and 969
villages surveyed over 4 months
Methodology• Longitudinal survey: Same set of
households surveyed in batches over time
• Scoring based on 5 questions:– Perception of current well-being– Expectations of future well-being– Perceptions of current economic
conditions of the country – Perceptions of prospective
economic conditions of the country
– Household's propensity to spend on consumer durables
Urban Consumer Sentiment Index
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Majority sectors showed decline in Jan'2021; PSU, CPSE & Utilities saw maximum decline
SENTIMENT – BSE SECTORAL INDICES
7
1. Growth rate vs. 01-Feb-202. The S&P BSE TECk index comprises constituents of the S&P BSE 500 that are classified as members of the media & publishing, information technology & telecommunications sector3. CPSE- Central Public Sector EnterprisesSource : BSE, Bloomberg, BCG analysis
BSE Sectoral Indices Descending order of performance1
50
60
-10
-50
70
-40
-30
-20
0
10
20
30
40
19-F
eb
01-F
eb
01-Ju
n
14-D
ec
18-Ju
n
31-D
ec
12-O
ct
11-M
ar
12-M
ay
15-Ja
n
Change (%)
30-M
ar
22-A
pr
10-Ju
l
27-Ju
l
11-A
ug
11-N
ov
26-A
ug
26-N
ov
10-S
ep
25-S
ep
27-O
ct
31-Ja
n
Sector % ChangeIT 54.21%
Healthcare 50.20%TecK 42.31%
Basic Materials 26.85%BSEAUTO Index 24.93%
Industrials 23.90%Energy 21.54%Metal 20.40%
Consumer discretionary 18.68%BSE 500 17.88%
Capital Goods 17.18%Consumer Durables 16.50%
Telecom 14.36%Power 8.80%Infra 7.74%
FMCG 7.36%Realty 3.86%
Finance 3.22%Oil and Gas 1.83%
Bankex 1.47%Utilities -1.05%
CPSE -7.52%PSU -9.21%
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Value of stock market transactions continued to grow in Jan'21 vs. previous months; Mutual fund AUM grew by 9% YoY in Jan'21
SENTIMENT –STOCK MKT. TRANSACTIONS
7
1. Volatility Index is a measure of market’s expectation of volatility over the near term; India VIX is a volatility index based on the NIFTY50 Index Option prices providing the expected market volatility over the next 30 calendar days – figures represented are as of end of every month shown2. Mutual funds Assets Under Management (AUM) represented as recorded at end of every month shownSource: BSE, NSE, AMFI, BCG analysis
Stock Market Transactions (INR k Cr)
-3% -5% 5%
25
5
20
0
35
10
30
15
25.5
Jun-
20
Apr-2
0
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Aug-
20
Sep-
20
26.9
Oct
-20
28.2
Dec
-20
Nov
-20
30.0
Jan-
21
23.9 24.527.1 27.5
31.0 30.5
Mar
-20
22.3
Mutual Funds AUM include investments from individuals (50.5%) & institutions (49.5%); institutions include domestic & foreign institutions and banks
11%
Mutual Funds AUM2 (INR L Cr)
64
2925 23 20
2520 21
25
0
20
40
60
80
0
2,000
1,000
1,500
500
110
1,223
India Volatility Index (VIX) 1
44
Tran
sact
ion
Valu
e ( I
NR
) k C
r
Dec
-20
906
Apr-2
0
65
1,000
30
1,349
May
-20
1,351
Nov
-20
Jun-
2080
Jul-2
093
1,283Au
g-20
1,099
70
Sep-
20
Jan-
21
58
Oct
-20
71
1,337
99
1,375
34
104
1,449
Mar
-20
1,006
82
BSE India VIXNSE
21% 12% 135%BSE YoY
42% 27% 127%NSE YoY
66%
89%
8%83%
90%
10%33%
72%
7%2%
46%
11%30%
60%
17%
102%
128% 9%86%
80%
-20%
44%
-6%
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Indian GDP growth forecasts revised upwards to 6.7-9.6% contractionin the financial year
5.2 5.1 5.2 5.83.5 0.8 3.5 1.5
Fitch Ratings
Barclays Crisil DBS
-1.7 -4.3 -1.7 -4.3
6.0 5.5 5.8 3.32.1 3.6 1.9 1.6
EIU IMFIndia Ratings
Goldman Sachs
-3.9 -1.9 -3.9 -1.7
May-Jun'20 Sep-Oct'20
1. Pre-lockdown forecasts were made during Feb-2020/early Mar-2020; 2. Post-lockdown forecasts refer to forecasts made between 25-Mar to 20-Sep-20203. Pre-lockdown forecast for SBI is as of 16-Apr-2020Source: Analysts reports, BCG analysis
India GDP growth forecast for FY21 (YoY, %)Mar-Apr'20
4.7 3.3 5.8 5.5
-5.0 -5.0 -4.5 -4.0
ICRA Goldman Sachs
Moody’sIMF
-9.7 -8.3 -10.3 -9.5
1.15.5 4.5 5.2
-6.8 -5.3 -6.0-3.2
SBI3 India Ratings
Deutsche Bank
Barclays
-7.9-10.8 -10.5 -8.4
Pre-lockdown forecasts1
Post-lockdown forecasts2
3.6% to 0.8% -3.2% to -6.8%
Jul-Aug'20
-4.5% to -10.9%
Data as of 18 Feb'21; Estimates likely to be revised further
4.1 4.7 5.5
-6.0-9.5
-4.5
Bank of America
ICRA FICCI
-10.1 -14.2 -10.0
5.8 5.71.1
-6.0 -6.1-10.9
SBI3DBS Nomura
-11.8 -11.8-12.0
NON - EXHAUSTIVE
5.8 6.0 5.7 5.5
-10.3 -9.5 -10.8 -11.5RBIIMF NomuraMoody’s
-16.1 -15.5 -16.5 -17.0
-9.5% to -14.8%
GDP FORECASTS
5.5 5.1 3.3 4.7
-11.8 -10.5-14.8
-11.0
India Ratings
Fitch Ratings
Goldman Sachs
ICRA
-17.3 -15.6 -18.1 -15.7
GDP Growth Forecast % Range
3.3 6.0 5.2 5.5
-10.3-7.5 -7.7
-10.6Goldman
SachsRBI S&P
GlobalMoody’s
-13.6 -13.5 -12.9 -16.1
5.81.1
5.1 4.7
-9.0 -7.4 -9.4 -7.8
DBS ICRASBI3 Fitch Ratings
-14.8-9.1
-14.5 -12.5
-7.4% to -10.6%
Nov-Dec'20 Jan-Feb'21
4.1 5.7
-6.7 -6.7
Bank of America
Nomura
-10.8 -12.4
5.8 5.81.1
-9.6 -8.0 -7.0
World Bank
SBI3IMF
-15.4 -13.8-8.1
-6.7% to -9.6%
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.India's Investment Climate in 2020
2
Economic Indicators1
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+50% growth across 6 years
$~50+Bn$35Bn
20202014
Source : EIU (2020 value is an estimate); UNCTAD
Electronics Taiwan
InfrastructureUAE
Electronics S. Korea
Oil & GasUnited Kingdom
AutoS. Korea
MachinerySwitzerland
AerospaceUnited States
Capital GoodsFrance
India Investment Climate 2020
India has emerged as one of the most attractive FDI destination over the past few years
4th largest FDI inflows in Asia and amongst top 10 recipients globally
With notable investments across all sectors and source countries
Illustrative
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Source: MEA, India, Pitchbook
Walmart
Foxconn
$10 Bn
$5.99 Bn
$1.9 Bn
$1 Bn
• $4.68 Bn investment received through Jio, Glance, Redwig Aerospace Labs & BlueSemi
• Focus on collaborating WhatsApp with Reliance's e-commerce venture JioMart to enable people to connect with businesses, shops and purchase products
• $5.73 Bn raised by Jio; $260 Mn raised by Unacademy
• $1.2 Bn invested in Flipkart: Focus on expanding Flipkart's offer though technology, partnerships and new services & innovation
• $700 Mn invested in PhonePe
• Production shift in India to steer away from US-China trade war
Company Amount announced (USD) Focus
India Investment Climate 2020Flagship investments were announced in 2020
Not exhaustive
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India witnessed significant FDI in Jan-Nov'20
1. Denotes total inward FDI to India; 2. Nov'20 figures are provisionalSource: CMIENote: Past period data may vary from the previous versions of the Economic Monitor owing to restating of previous years’ data by the CMIE/reporting agencies
Foreign Direct Investments1 ($ Bn) xx Annual (Calendar Year) FDI Inflows
Including Reliance-Jio Deals
2.3 3.1 3.25.5 4.6 3.0 2.8 2.5
4.7 4.51.6
4.2 4.0 2.5 3.25.5 4.1
7.64.7 2.8 3.0 4.1 3.7 5.5 6.2
4.0 4.91.3 0.8 0.1
4.3
18.7
4.1 5.1 6.9
Nov
-19
May
-18
Apr-1
8
Feb-
18
Jan-
18
Mar
-18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug-
18
Sep-
18
Jun-
20
May
-20
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Apr-2
0
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar
-19
Apr-1
9
May
-19
Nov
-202
Sep-
20
Jul-2
0
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Aug-
19
Sep-
19
Oct
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Aug-
20
Oct
-20
$42 Bn2018
$50 Bn2019
$56.3 BnJan-Nov'20
India Investment Climate 2020
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Foreign Institutional Investments improved in Jun-Nov'20 albeit remained somber in Jan-Nov'20
-3.8
Aug-
18
2.0
-4.2
Feb-
18
Jun-
18
Jan-
18
Jul-1
8
Dec
-18
Mar
-18
Apr-1
8
-4.9
May
-18
Sep-
18
Oct
-18
Apr-2
0
Nov
-18
2.71.9
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar
-19
Apr-1
9
May
-19
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Aug-
19
Sep-
19
0.3
Oct
-19
-0.5
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
0.3
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
-1.4
1.2
Jul-2
0
Aug-
20
Sep-
20
3.0
Oct
-20
3.40.3
-15.0
-1.4
4.6
-3.2 -1.7 -2.1 -0.4-0.5
9.3
1.9 2.26.0
-1.8
1.7
-1.5
3.30.7
5.61.4 3.0
Nov
-201
9.8
Foreign Institutional Investments ($ Bn)
-$11 Bn2018
$26 Bn2019
$6.8 BnJan-Nov'20
xx Annual (Calendar Year) FIIs
1. Nov'20 figures are provisionalSource: CMIENote: Past period data may vary from the previous versions of the Economic Monitor owing to restating of previous years’ data by the CMIE/reporting agencies
India Investment Climate 2020
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Note: FPI includes equity & investment fund shares and Debt SecuritiesSource: CMIE
Portfolio investments in India improved in Apr-Sep'20 after witnessing steep decline in Jan-Mar'20
India Investment Climate 2020
Sep-18
2.0
Jun-18Dec-17 Mar-18 Sep-19Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20
7.7
Sep-20
2.4
11.55.4
-14.7-9.1
-2.4 -2.2
5.28.1
1.1
+286%
Portfolio Investments in India ($ Bn)
-$11.3 Bn2018
$26.8 Bn2019
-$6 BnTill Sep'20
xx Annual (Calendar Year) portfolio investments
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34080
2020 (till Nov'20)2019
~$22 Bn~$6Bn
2019
5884
3915 15 25 33
16 16 16 23
Jul’2
0
Mar
’20
Feb’
20
Jan’
20
Apr’2
0
May
’20
Jun’
20
Aug’
20
Sep’
20
Oct
’20
Nov
’20
+53%
2.39
Oct
’20
Mar
’20
3.22
Jul’2
0
Jan’
20
Aug’
20
May
’20
Feb’
20
Apr’2
0
Jun’
20
Sep’
20
Nov
’20
0.41
5.06
0.64
4.76
0.281.03
3.40
0.40 0.63+640%
Capex (USD Bn)No. of projects
Jobs created(in thousands)# of companies
23 23 14 4 3 6 12 3 3 4 9
50 52 32 15 15 21 19 16 15 16 22
2020 (till Nov'20)
Note: data includes announced projectsSource: fDi Markets, from the Financial Times Ltd 2020
Recovery observed in greenfield projects in Nov'20 vs. April'20 lows
Capex in greenfield investments in Nov'20 back to pre-Covid Levels
106110
20182017
~$7Bn~$5Bn
20182017
Greenfield investments showed appreciable YoY growth in 2020 vs. last year
India Investment Climate 2020
+300% growth in number of projectsvs. 2019 …
… +300% growth in Capexvs. 2019
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PE/VC investments deal value witnessed an uptick in Dec'20, ~50% higher than Jan'20 levels
India Investment Climate 2020
Note: 1. Deals include Angel/Seed, Venture Capital and Private Equity deals which are announced & closed between 01-Jan- 2020 and 31-Dec-2020; 2. Others includes Media & Entertainment, Retail, Shipping & Logistics, Sports & Fitness, Textiles & Garments, Travel & Transport, FMCG, Advertising, othersSource: Venture Intelligence, BCG analysis
15%
Aug-20
4%
3%
8%
13%15%
20%
8%3%
5%
15%
Feb-20
13%
66%
May-20Mar-20
6%
12%
40%
2.82
3%
27%
Apr-20
3%
3%33%40%
8%11%3%
39%
31%
2%7%
3%
14%
52%
Jun-20
20% 36%11%
55%18%
5%
Sep-20
5%25%
65%
Oct-20
23%23%
3%
38%51%
Nov-20
3%
25%
21%
10%
21%
Dec-20
14%
11%
4%
3% 6%
1.82
1.09 1.140.89
2.10
29%
1.60 1.561.33
4.19
24%
Jan-20
33%41%
18%
Jul-20
18%
11%1.62 1.66
+49%
# of deals 80 79 71 68 42 66 64 59 70 53 76 78Avg. deal value ($ Mn) 35 23 15 17 21 25 33 28 23 29 17 54
BFSI Education Healthcare & Life SciencesEnergy IT & ITES Manufacturing OthersTelecom
Reliance Retail attracted ~$6.4 Bn USD while Jio platform attracted $22 Bn in PE Deals in 2020
$21.8 Bn2020
Total deal value of PE/VC investments1 ($ Bn)(Excluding Jio Platforms & Reliance Retail deals)
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1. Projects dropped include – Projects being Abandoned altogether, and/or Shelved, and/or Stalled. Dollar value taken on a monthly basis (LHS) & yearly basis (RHS)Source: CMIE, BCG Analysis
58
84
69
4348
53
23
48
99
51
11 14 123 6
44
107
58 57
81
102
62
51
32
4741
2732
Sep-18 Mar-19Dec-17 Jun-19Mar-18 Dec-18Jun-18 Sep-19 Jun-20Dec-19 Mar-20
12
Sep-20 Dec-20
1017
24 2114
20
38
13
23 24
Investments by all projects started to improve, albeit slowly after the significant decline in Apr-Jun'20 quarter
New Projects Announced Projects Completed Projects dropped
Investment by all projects, USD Bn
237.6212.5 223.1
264.2
301.8
192.7
73.0
2018-19 2019-20
93.0
2017-18
75.0
2019-20 saw higher projects announced and lower projects
dropped vs. 2018-19
India Investment Climate 2020
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Count & value of tenders announced by Central & State Govts. grew YoY noticeably in most months of 2020 vs. last year
Aug-
20
May
-20
Mar
-20
Feb-
20
3.6
2.7
Jan-
20
4.6
Jun-
20
Apr-2
0
Sep-
20
Jul-2
0
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
2.8 2.51.8
0.8
3.6
1.72.1
3.32.9
4.2
Source: Project Today database, BCG analysis
Count of tenders announced by central &state govts (k)
Value of tenders announced by central & state govts (USD Bn)
YoYgrowth
17%-10% 7%-4%-5% 29% 54%-53% 244%-42% 123%125% 55%-49% -20%80% 110% 43%201% 88%127% 28%253% 52%68% 42%
32K2020
$95.4 Bn2020
India Investment Climate 2020
9.137.68
6.237.89
6.63 6.327.65
5.87
10.057.95 8.07
11.87 12.65
Jun-
20
Jan-
20
Dec
-20
Mar
-20
Feb-
20
Aug-
20
Apr-2
0
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep-
20
Jan-
21
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
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