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Impacts of climate on tropical crop production
Tom Osbornea
Andy Challinora,b, Tim Wheelerb, Julia Slingoa
a Department of Meteorologyb Department. of Agriculture
Crops and Climate Group
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General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM; Challinor et al, 2004)
• Aims to combine:– the benefits of more empirical approaches (low input data requirements, validity
over large spatial scales) with– the benefits of the process-based approach (e.g. the potential to capture intra-
seasonal variability, and so cope with changing climates)
• Yield Gap Parameter to account for the impact of differing nutrient levels, pests, diseases, non-optimal management etc.
general circulation model
crop model
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Forced with observed weather
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Yie
ld (
kg h
a-1
)
Model results
Observed yield(detrended to 1966 levels)
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Impact of extremes: rainfall distribution
1975Total rainfall: 394mmModel: 1059 kg/haObs: 1360 kg/ha
1981Total rainfall 389mmModel: 844 kg/haObs: 901 kg/ha
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Impacts of extremes - temperature
20 25 30 35 40 45
Tmax from -5d to anthesis (oC)
0
10
20
30
40
Nu
mb
er o
f g
rain
s p
er e
ar
a
Wheat crops grown at 350 ppm CO2
cd
20 25 30 35 40 45
Tmax from -5d to anthesis (oC)
0
10
20
30
40
Nu
mb
er o
f g
rain
s p
er e
ar
a
Wheat crops grown at 350 ppm CO2
cd
Also observed for rice (above) and groundnut
Anthesis ~ time of flowering
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Modelling high temperature stress
• Determine a flowering distribution
• Calculate impact of each high temp episode (this is a sum over all yield-determining flowers).
• The most severe high temperature episode impacts the harvest index. • Simulate tolerance by choice of HTS parameters. Perhaps simulate
escape by altering the flowering distribution in response to stress.
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Importance of adaptation
Number of years from period 2071-2100 when the total number of pods setting is below 50%.
Sensitive crop variety Tolerant crop variety
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How do we intend to link to EPS?
• Use the climate model projections directly.
What are our main questions requiring discussion in this meeting?
• How to get hold of the EPS output – password does not work? AJC
What have we achieved so far?
• Incorporated effects of high temperature stress at flowering on yield and represented response to stress of different crop varieties.
Q & A
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Which WP6.2 tasks etc will we contribute to and when?
• Milestone 6.14: Completion of preliminary probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts using calibrated impact models
Due Feb 2008
• Task 6.2.10: Preliminary evaluation of the impacts of extreme events … for crops … from available climate projections
Ongoing
• Task 6.2.11: Application of preliminary results from the EPS to impact models for estimating risks of extremes and risks of impacts.
Ongoing
(2 months unfunded)