Master’s Seminaron
Impact of Climate Change in Rainfed Agriculture
Submitted to-Dr. THOMAS ABRAHAMProfessor,Dept. of Agronomy,Allahabad School of Agriculture,SHIATS
Submitted by-
SUNIL JAKHAR M.Sc.(Ag.) Agronomy
I.D.No. :16MSAGRO013Department of Agronomy,
SHIATS
COURSE CODE: AGRN-780
INTRODUCTION
• Climate is one of the main determinants of agricultural production.
•Climate change and agriculture are inter related processes, both of which take place on a global scale, global warming is projected to have significance impact on conditions affecting agriculture , including temperature , CO2, glacial runoff , precipitation and interaction of these elements.
DEFINITION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
According to Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC) ‘climatechange’ refers to change in the state ofthe climate that can be identified bychange in the mean or variability of itsproperties and that persists forextended periods.
Climate is affected by many factors
ABIOTIC FACTORS: BIOTIC FACTORS:
1.Topography 1.Transpiration
2.Altitude 2.Respiration
3.Latidude 3.Photosynthesis
4.Ocean currents 4.Decomposition
5.Solar Radiation
6.Evaporation
Impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture
Soil: Drier, reduced productivity
Irrigation: Increased demand, reduced supply
Pests: Increased ranges and populations
Production: Reduced crop yield, particularly in south Asia
Livestock: Increased diseases and heat stress
Fishery: Affected abundance and spawning
Economic impact: Reduced agricultural output
Agricultural productivity in India was estimated to decrease by 2.5 to 10% by 2020(FAO) to 5 to 30% by 2050 (IPCC assessment
Role of Agriculture in climate change
• Emission of green house gases from crops.• Cultivation of land.• Intensive agriculture practices.• Use of chemical fertilizers.• Respiration activities.• Burnings of straws, stubbles etc.• Decomposition of organic matter.• Anaerobic rice cultivation.• Livestock activities.
Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide
Climate Change
Impact on rainfed agriculture
Adaptation
Vulnerability
Figure 1. Climate Change and Agriculture
Climate Change and Agriculture
• Global mean temperatures have increased by 0.74℃during last 100 years.
• GHG (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide) increase, caused
by fossil fuel use and land use changes, main reasons.
• Temperatures greater increase in rabi seasion.
• Precipitation likely to increase in kharif.
• More frequent hot extremes, heavy precipitations.
• Sea level to rise to be 0.18 - 0.59 m.
Global climate change
Estimates of Future Levels of CO2
Year CO2, ppm
2000 369
2010-2015 388-398
2050/2060 463-623
2100 478-1099
Figure 2. PREDICTED CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE
CLIMATE CHANGE
Indirect effects•Soil fertility
•Irrigation availability•Pest
•Flood and droughts
Socio economic•Policy•Trade
•Farmer’s response
Direct effect on crop
•Physiology•Morphology
Human interventionsAdaptation strategiesMitigation strategies
Agricultural production and vulnerability
Research Objectives
•To study the response of rainfed crops’ yield and production to different scenarios of variation in climatic conditions (e.g., rainfall precipitation and temperature).
• New and relevant technical knowledge can be applied.
Table 1. Expected changes in temperature and rainfall in India
Year SeasonTemperature change(℃) Rainfall change (%)
Lowest Highest Lowest Highest
2050s
2020s
2080s
Rabi
Kharif
Rabi
Kharif
Rabi
Kharif
1.08
2.54
0.87
1.81
4.14
2.91
1.54
1.81
-1.95
1.12 5.10
3.18
4.36
-9.22
6.31
2.37 7.18
24.83
4.62
3.82
10.52
4.50
10.10 15.18
Source: Rupakumar et al.,2006
Table 2. Alternate crops suitable for delayed sowing conditions in some arid areas
Locations
Normal sowing Delayed sowing Both situation
Hisar (Haryana) Pearl millet, clusterbean Cowpea(short
duration)
Greengram,
clusterbean
Anantpur (A.P.) Sorghum, pigeonpea,
greengram, castor
millet, groundnut,
sunflower, horsegram
Pearl millet
Dantiwada
(Gujrat)
Pearl millet, castor, cotton Castor, clusterbean
(drought
tolerence)
Sorghum,
greengram
Jodhpur
(Rajasthan)
Pearl millet, clusterbean, Clusterbean, castor,
Red gram(Short
duration)
Greengram,
cowpea,
mothbean
Suitable crops
Source: Kalra et al., 2008
Table 3. Effect of drought on rainfed crop yield in Dharwad District
Crop Percent loss of normal yield
Sorghum 43.03%
Maize 14.09%
Groundnut 34.09%
Wheat 48.68%
cotton 59.96%Source: Asha et al.,2012
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Pro
du
cti
on ,
Mto
ns
Year
Figure 3. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India
Source: Aggarwal et al.,2002
Table 5. Effect in increased temp. on productivity of crops in punjab
CropsTemperature rise
1℃ 2℃ 3 ℃
Per cent reduction in yield
Wheat 8.1 18.7 25.7
Rice
Maize
Groundnut
7.4 25.1
14.6 21.410.4
8.7 23.2 36.2
5.4
Ludhiana Source: Hundal and Kaur, 1996
Table 6. Reason for reduction in yield and net revenue
FactorsSmall
FarmersMedium Farmers
Large Farmers
Total Farmers
Change in temperature
53.33 40.00 33.33 42.22
Rainfall 100.00 93.33 92.2283.33
73.33
60.00
72.22
46.6726.6753.33
7.780.00
83.33
16.67Others factors/no
idea
Pest and Disease
Soil fertility and erosion
60.00
6.67
Source: Asha et al., 2012
Key adaptation strategies
1. Improving land and water management
2. New varieties: drought/heat resistant3. New farm management practices4. Change in land use5. Watershed management6. Agri-insurance
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
• Farmers at very few locations are aware of climatic change adaptation strategies like change in the cropping system.
•
• Watershed management.
• Require careful management of resource like soil, water, biodiversity.
• Adopt in Agro-forestry system.
New varieties: drought/heat resistant.
REFERENCES
• Asha L.K.V., Munisamy, G., Bhat, A.R.S., August 2012. Impact of Climate Change on Rainfed Agriculture In India: A case study of Dharwad. International Journal of Environmental Science and Development, Vol. 3, (368-371)
• Hebbar K.B., Venugopalan A.H., Prakash A.H.,2013. Simulating the impacts of climate change on cotton production in India. Climate Change(2013) 118:701-713
• Hundal, S.S. and Kaur, P:1996. Climate change and its impact on
crop productivity in the Punjab, India’, In Climate Variability and
Agriculture . 408-415
• Greenhouse Gas emissions