Download - Impact of CC_Bala and Ravindranath
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Prof. G. BalaProf. Ravindranath
R. Chaturvedi, R. Gopalakrishnan, M. Jayaraman,S.Swarnim, N. Sharma and S. Afreen
Indian Institute of Science,Bangalore
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Impacts of Climate Change &
Vulnerability of ForestEcosystems IPCC, 2007 Findings
1. Populations of threatened species are expected to beat greater risk Species that are currently classified as critically endangered will become
extinct 1/3 to 2/3 species at risk of extinction
Loss of biodiversity2. Species composition and dominance will be altered,
resulting in ecosystem changes
3. Shifts in forest types boundary Altitude & Latitude
4. Forest die-back / mortality Climate will change faster than capacity of plants to migrate
5. Increase and later decrease in biomass productivity
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Studies by IISc Assessed climate impacts on forest ecosystems
Area under different forest types plant functional types Net Primary Productivity
Emissions Scenarios: SRES A2 and B2
Climate model projections HadRM3 (from IITM,
Pune) Global Vegetation Models used
BIOME4 & IBIS ( Integrated Biosphere Simulator)
Status of work Preliminary modeling results available at national level for
the period 2070 to 2100 Awaiting climate projections for 2030 and 2050 to make
projections for short and medium term
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National level results fromIBIS modeling
For A2 scenario, Indian terrestrial ecosystems
take up about 15 Gt-C by the end of the century
Natural potential vegetation map shows 35 %
increase in forest cover primarily because ofCO2-fertilization (In the absence of CO2-
fertilization forest cover decreases by 15%)
Indian terrestrial ecosystem will take up 16 % ofthe total emissions (94 Gt-C) from India
projected for A2 scenario
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Impact on Forest cover (1975 -
2085) IBIS (A2 scenario) Modeloutputs
Climatic effect(warming)decreases the
forest cover by15%
Climate effect plusCO2-fertilizationenhances theforest cover by
35%
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Impact on NPP (1975 - 2085)
IBIS (A2 scenario) Model outputs
Climatic effect(warming) decreasesNet Primary
Productivity (NPP)by 13 %
CO2-fertilizationenhances NPP by
82%
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Impact on vegetation type (% change)
according to Champion and Sethclassification during the period 1960-
1990 to 2070-2100 (A2 Scenario)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Tropical wet evergreen forests
Tropical moist decidious forest
Tropical thorny/scrub forests
Littoral and swampy forest
Subtropical pine forests
Montane wet temperate forests
Himalayan dry temperate forests
Moist alpineB2 A2
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Impac
tof
climat
echa
ngeo
soil
carbo
nstoc
k(A2
and
scena
rios)
0 510
15
20
25
Tropical wet evergreen forests
Tropical semi evergreen forests
Tropical moist decidious forest
Tropical dry decidious forest
Tropical thorny/scrub forests
Tropical dry evergreen forest
Littoral and swampy forest
Subtropical broad -leaved hill forests
Subtropical pine forests
Sub-tropical dry evergreen forests
Montane wet temperate forests
Himalayan wet/ moist temperate
forests
Himalayan dry temperate forests
SOC (in Kg/m2)
Bas
eline
2085_
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Impact on NPP (% change) according
to Champion and Seth classificationduring the period 1960-1990 to 2070-
2100 (A2 and B2 scenarios)
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Tropical wet evergreen forests
Tropical moist decidious forest
Tropical thorny/scrub forests
Littoral and swampy forest
Subtropical pine forests
Montane wet temperate forests
Himalayan dry temperate forests
Moist alpine B2 A2
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Impact of Climate Change on Pine,Teak and Sal (A2 scenario)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2025 2055 2085
%gr
idundergoingchange
Sal Teak Pine
Sal forests are relatively resilient compared to Teak and
Pine; Thus a good candidate for forest Conservation and
natural Regeneration projects.
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Biodiversity and NPP
Implications
IBIS model outputs indicate 52% forested grids
will be impacted Future climate is not optimal for the existing forest
types or species assemblage or biodiversity
Though models indicate forests benefiting fromCO2 elevation (due to CO2 fertilization) Tropical forests are generally poor in nitrogen and
other nutrients - thus may not benefit from elevated
CO2 Biodiversity likely to be adversely impacted
since the future climate may not be suitable for
existing vegetation types
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Future plans
Climate change in near
term
Preliminary modeling resultsavailable at national level for
the period 2070 to 2100
Awaiting climate projections
for 2030 and 2050 to make
projections for short and
medium term
Vulnerability index maps(based on veg change,
type and thickness of veg)