Download - IFEX-09: NOAA’s Hurricane Field Program Eric W. Uhlhorn NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division
Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX; Rogers et al., BAMS, 2006)
• IFEX is intended to improve the prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change by:
– Collecting observations that span the TC life cycle in a variety of environments• Pre-genesis• Rapid Intensification• Landfall
– Developing and refining measurement technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment
• SFMR surface winds• Doppler 3-D wind vector• IWRAP
– Improving the understanding of the physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle.
• Air-sea interactions• Convective-scale and microphysical processes
2009 Goals• Upper ocean observations
– Gulf of Mexico Loop Current variability through a joint NOAA/DoI MMS project
– Continue float/drifter deployments coordinated through CARCAH/53rd WRS
– Real-time AXBT data processing and transmission from P-3• Doppler winds
– Real-time processing and transmission from P-3– Available for inner-core data asssimilation
• SALEX/envrionmental interactions– Test observing proto-vortex “pouches” (easterly-waves) in pre-
genesis stage (PREDICT-2010 dry run)– Coordinate P-3 and G-IV observing capabilities
• Other– Landfall, SFMR, Rapid-intensity change
Summary – A Relatively Quiet Season
• Forward deployment to Barbados (12-22 Aug)– N43RF and N49RF– TS Ana (14-16 Aug.)– H Bill (18-21 Aug.)
• TS Danny from KMCF (25-28 Aug.) • Other
– Pre-season GoM AXBT (15 July)– Coyote UAS test (20 Sept.)– SFMR rain measurements (21 Sept.)
Ana
Date A/C T/O time Flt ID MissionDoppler
Analyses Dropsonde AXBT
14 Aug N49RF 20Z 090814N1 SALEX 19
15 Aug N43RF 20Z Canceled 20
15 Aug N49RF 20Z 090815N1 SALEX
16 Aug N43RF 08Z Canceled
16 Aug N49RF 08Z Canceled
16 Aug N43RF 20Z 090816I1 SALEX/TDR 2 16
18 Aug N43RF 08Z Canceled
BillDate A/C T/O time Flt ID Mission
Doppler Analyses Dropsonde AXBT
18 Aug N43RF 08Z Canceled
18 Aug N49RF 08Z 090818N1 SALEX 25
18 Aug N43RF 20Z 090818I1 TDR 3 39
18 Aug N49RF 20Z 090818N2 SALEX 27
19 Aug N43RF 08Z 090819I1 TDR 4 22
19 Aug N49RF 08Z 090819N1 SALEX 20
19 Aug N43RF 20Z 090819I2 TDR 4 24
19 Aug N49RF 20Z 090819N2 SALEX 18
20 Aug N43RF 08Z 090820I1 TDR 2 14
20 Aug N49RF 08Z 090820N1 SALEX 24
20 Aug N43RF 20Z 090820I2 TDR 21
20 Aug N49RF 1730Z 090820N2Syn.
Surv./NHC 33
21 Aug N49RF 1730Z 090821N1Syn.
Surv./NHC 27
DannyDate A/C Flight ID T/O Mission Doppler
AnalysesDropsonde AXBT
25 Aug N49RF 090825N1 20Z SALEX 21
25 Aug N43RF 090825I1 Cancelled
26 Aug N43RF 090826I1 08Z TDR 3 12 10
26 Aug N49RF 090826N1 1730Z Syn. Surv./NHC
29
27 Aug N43RF 090826I2 20Z TDR 3 13 10
27 Aug N43RF 090827I1 08Z TDR 3 16 19
27 Aug N49RF 090827N1 1730Z Syn. Surv./NHC
28
27 Aug N43RF 090827I2 20Z TDR 3 15 19
28 Aug N43RF 090828I1 08Z TDR 1 2 19
Environmental Interactions – Danny 090825N1
• 2
• 1
• 4
• 2a• 1a
• 2c
• 2
• 3
• 5• 6
• 7
• 1b
• 2b• 3a
• 3b
• 3c
• 4a
• 5a• 6a• 6b
• 8
• 7a
• 090825n (with changes): near take-off
Danny 090826I2 Vortex-scale observations2242-2556 UTC Aug. 26
850 hPa drops
850 hPa drops
700 hPa drops
700 hPa drops
500 hPa drops
500 hPa drops
Other Missions
• Pre-season Gulf of Mexico AXBT ocean survey• Coyote UAS test flight• SFMR rain observations• (Hurricane Ida)
Coyote UAS Test Flight 090920I1 • Fill existing low altitude data void in hurricanes • Safely provide continuous observations of T,P,V, q below 200ft
– Unique measurements of near-surface winds in the eyewall.
– Possible early detection of a rapid intensity change process as ‘loitering’ in the eye takes place.
SFMR mission• Support JHT project• Improve SFMR surface wind accuracy
by improving rain modeling– Obtain SFMR Tb measurements in
convective rain– Relate absorprtion coefficient to rain
rate measurements
Current Absorp. Coef. Data
A look ahead to 2010
– Continuation of IFEX objectives– ~700 hours total for all aircraft– N42RF (P-3) will be available by early June, N43RF
available early August, N49RF (G-IV) available early June
– Coordinate with NSF/PREDICT and NASA/GRIP experiments
• IFEX goal 1: collecting observations spanning lifecycle– Doppler radar– Synoptic surveillance– HWRFx real-time runs– HFIP real-time runs
• IFEX goal 2: new and improved measurement technologies– SFMR evaluations– Ocean winds/AWRAP
• IFEX goal 3: improving understanding– Genesis– SAL/vortex interactions– Rapid Intensity Change
• Landfall coordination• Ocean Observations
Focus areas for 2010