www.OffshoreGrid.eu
IEE OffshoreGrid
Scenario Definitions and First Iteration Results
Jan De Decker, 3EJens Tambke, ForWind
Warsaw, April 22, 2010
www.OffshoreGrid.eu
Outline
• The IEE Study OffshoreGrid
• Input definitions and scenarios
• First results (Wind Power Time Series)
• Next steps
• Conclusions
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IEE OffshoreGrid
PROJECT DNA– Techno-economic study– Cost-benefit analysis of different design options– Budget 1.4 M€, 75% funded by EC– Coordinator 3E, 8 partners, consultancy & applied research
APPROACH PREPARATION
– Scenarios 2020 / 2030 (offshore & onshore wind, onshore reinforcements, energy economics, regulatory framework…) MODELING
– Cost optimisation of infrastructure– European power market model
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IEE OffshoreGrid – Timing & High-level Milestones
May ‘09 Jan ‘10 Jul ‘10 Jan ‘11 Jul ‘11 Oct ‘11
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Input definitions and scenarios
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• Economical and regulatory model inputs
• Analysis of design drivers
• Offshore & onshore wind power scenarios
• Analysis of other marine developments
Deliverables to be found on www.OffshoreGrid.eu
www.OffshoreGrid.eu
Input scenarios
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Onshore and offshore wind scenarios for 2020 and 2030 [MW]
Onshore: 196602
Offshore: 43093
Total: 239695
Onshore: 267047
Offshore: 125787
Total: 392824
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CountryOffshoreGrid offshore
scenario2020 2030
Belgium 1 994 3 794Denmark 2 329 3 799
Estonia 0 1 600Finland 590 3 190France 2 510 4 914Germany 10 249 26 553Ireland 1 055 3 780
Latvia 0 900Lithuania 0 1 000Netherlands 4 622 12 122
Norway 957 9 667Poland 500 5 300Russia 0 500Sweden 2 983 10 522UK 15 303 38 146Total Northern EU
42 135 115 620
Total OffshoreGrid
43 093 125 787
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Input scenarios: Offshore Wind Power Scenarios
www.OffshoreGrid.eu
Weather Model (WRF):
2-domain-setup:
• 1st domain resolution: 27x27 km²
• 2nd domain resolution: 9x9 km²
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Example results WRF model:
• 90m annual mean wind speeds (2007)
• Power production of Danish 200 MW wind farm
[m/s]
First results:Wind Power Time Series
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Total European On&Offshore Power 2030
267 GW inst. onshore, mean production: 64 GW
127 GW inst. offshore, mean production: 60 GW
[GW]
Hour of the Year [h]
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First results:Wind Power Time Series
www.OffshoreGrid.eu
Po
wer
[G
W]
8th-28th March 2030
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First results:Wind Power Time Series
Extract - European On&Offshore Power 2030
Much correlation between onshore and offshore wind power Hour of the Year
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Impact of aggregation (via offshore grid) is very positive
Maximum downward variations [% of Pinst]
First results:Wind Power Time Series
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Correlation coefficients between countries (on- & offshore) [%]
First results:Wind Power Time Series
Apart from Hydropower in Norway, especially horizontal interconnection is interesting for balancing and to reduce total variability
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Next phase: Modeling
WP5:–Provide the technical design for an integrated offshore
transmission network–Provide a cost estimate for such a network or
networks
WP6:–Model = Flow based power market simulator (cf.
TradeWind)–Study different options regarding offshore grid design,
market conditions and regulatory framework–Assess various technical and economic impacts
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Modeling: Methodology
Prototype grids
– Compare costs & benefits of different designs:
• Base case
• Trade driven design
• Offshore wind driven design
• Mixed design
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Prototype grid designs – Wind Farms
Prototype grid designs – Wind Clusters
Prototype grid designs – Base case
Existing interconnectors & Planned interconnectors (decided+under construction)
Prototype grid designs – Trade driven
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Prototype grid designs – Meshed
Prototype grid designs – Hybrid
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Modeling: Methodology
Case studiesStart with case studies:
• Quicker valuable results for EC• Get deeper understanding of economics with double
use
Case study Dogger Bank
Evaluate findings in 2nd case study (probably UK-BE-NL)
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Conclusions
IEE OFFSHORE GRID– techno-economic study & policy framework – scientific view on offshore grids (with cost-benefit)
FIRST RESULTS– Wind Power Scenarios– Analysis of Wind Power Time Series– Other deliverables to be found on www.OffshoreGrid.eu
FINISHED BY JULY 2010– Modeling of case studies + first evaluation cost &
benefits
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Thank you for your attention!
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Jan De Decker [email protected]
www.3E.eu
VISIT US AT STAND 4328
