Download - Idea Cellular+PDF
-
8/8/2019 Idea Cellular+PDF
1/12
Idea CellularINDIA
24 April 2009
IDEA IN Underperform
Stock price as of 22 Apr 09 Rs 57.0512-month target Rs 45.00Upside/downside % -21.1Valuation Rs 45.02- DCF (WACC 13.0%, beta 1.0, ERP 6.0%, RFR 9.0%,
TGR 3.5%)
GICS sector telecommunication services
Market cap Rs m 176,86030-day avg turnover US$m 2.1Market cap US$m 3,514Number shares on issue m 3,100
Investment fundamentalsYear end 31 Mar 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
Total revenue bn 67.2 93.7 111.2 126.4EBITDA bn 22.5 26.6 32.1 38.8EBITDA growth % 53.8 18.0 20.9 21.0EBIT bn 13.7 13.6 14.2 17.1Adjusted profit bn 10.4 8.8 10.3 10.8
EPS rep Rs 3.96 3.08 3.32 3.50EPS adj Rs 3.96 3.09 3.32 3.50EPS adj growth % 107.5 -22.0 7.6 5.2
PE adj x 14.4 18.5 17.2 16.3
ROA % 12.8 7.3 5.6 6.3ROE % 36.4 9.6 6.7 6.6EV/EBITDA x 7.8 7.6 6.3 5.2Net debt/equity % 160.7 1.3 26.8 32.1Price/book x 4.2 1.2 1.1 1.0
IDEA IN rel SENSEX performance, & rechistory
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, April 2009(all figures in INR unless noted)
Analyst
Shubham Majumder9122 66533049 [email protected] Mohta9122 66533050 [email protected] Smart852 3922 3565 [email protected]
Good 4Q results & operating metricsEvent
Idea Cellular reported good 4Q results, with consolidated revenue of
Rs29.3bn, EBITDA of Rs8.1bn and PAT of Rs2.7bn. Ideas consolidated
results include 41.09% proportionate consolidation of Spice Communications
(SPCM IN, Rs59.4, Not rated) and 16% proportionate consolidation of Indus
Towers (Not listed). We maintain our Underperform rating. See detailed
results in Figure 1.
Impact Wireless operating metrics surprised positively in a crucial quarter that
saw the launch of RCOM GSM in 14 new circles with free minutes
pricing. ARPU and ARPM (blended tariffs) surprised positively, by 1% and
2%, respectively, although MOU was 1% below our expectation.
Ideas results have very positive read-through into Bhartisresults,
slated for 29 April, led by ARPM and ARPU surprises, as Bharti Airtel
(BHARTI IN, Rs708, Outperform) did not participate in the price competition
started by RCOM. This, even while Idea did respond to RCOMs free price
offer by dropping prices on two counts local call rate cut to 60 paise per
minute from Rs1 per minute, and dropped Lifetime Prepaid Joining Fees to
Rs25 in Mumbai and Bihar, the two newly launched circles to compete with
RCOM. Bharti should logically fare better than Idea. Standalone numbers beat our estimate by 3%. Ideas standalone numbers
comprised all India mobile operations but excluded Spice and Indus Towers.
Standalone EBITDA margin posted significant improvement. Excellent
cost control helped Idea beat our standalone EBITDA estimate by 17%.
EBITDA margin in 11 existing circles was 29.2% (vs estimate of 25.6%). The
new circle EBITDA loss of Rs654m was lower than our Rs984m loss estimate.
Idea has provided breakdown of consolidated financials. In contrast to
last quarter, Idea provided selected financial information on Indus Towers,
giving more clarity on the various moving parts in the consolidated financials.
Expect more clarity on Indus Towers operations on 4Q earnings call.
Idea is hosting its earnings conference call tomorrow at 2:30 p.m. We expectmore clarity on Indus Towers and Spice consolidation on the call.
Earnings and target price revision
No change.
Price catalyst
12-month price target: Rs45.00 based on a DCF methodology.
Catalyst: Margin contraction due to seven new circle launches over the April-
December 2009 period that will lead to initial losses before turning around.
Action and recommendation
We maintain our Underperform rating, given lack of earnings catalysts in
next three quarters. We continue to favour Bharti over Idea for its superior
earnings growth and cashflow profile, strong execution and more attractive
valuations.
Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover ofthis document, or on our website www.macquarie.com.au/research/disclosures.
-
8/8/2019 Idea Cellular+PDF
2/12
Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer Idea Cellular
24 April 2009 2
Fig 1 4Q FY3/09 results Idea Cellular quarterly P&LActual Estimate
(Amoutn in Rs miilion) Dec-08 Mar'09 QoQ (%) Mar'09 Deviation (%)
Revenues
11 Service Areas 25,726 27,642 7% 26,869 3%
New Service Areas 483 985 104% 894 10%Idea Standalone 26,209 28,626 9% 27,762 3%
Spice 1,100 1,339 22% 1,397 -4%
Indus 172 1,870 987% na na
Eliminations (171) (2,479) na na
Idea Consolidated 27,311 29,356 7% na na
EBITDA
11 Service Areas 7,570 8,069 7% 6,890 17%
New Service Areas (765) (654) -15% (984) -34%
Idea Standalone 6,805 7,415 9% 5,906 26%
Spice 223 336 51% 179 88%
Indus (54) 358 -758% na na
Idea Consolidated 6,974 8,108 16% na na
EBITDA margins
11 Service Areas 29.4% 29.2% 25.6% na
New Service Areas -158.4% -66.4% -110.2% na
Idea Standalone 26.0% 25.9% 21.3% na
Spice 20.3% 25.1% 12.8% na
Indus -31.6% 19.1% na na
Idea Consolidated 25.5% 27.6% na na
Depreciation & Amortization
Idea Standalone 3,579 3,897 9% na na
Spice 214 262 22% na na
Indus 144 162 13% na na
Idea Consolidated 3,937 4,321 10% na na
EBIT
Idea Standalone 3,226 3,519 9% na na
Spice 9 73 711% na na
Indus (198) 194 -198% na na
Idea Consolidated 3,037 3,786 25% na na
Interest and Finance cost
Idea Standalone 600 491 -18% na na
Spice 151 326 116% na na
Indus 123 229 86% na na
Idea Consolidated 874 1,046 20% na na
PAT
Idea Standalone 2,562 3,032 18% na na
Spice (141) (254) 80% na na
Indus (226) (36) -84% na na
Idea Consolidated 2,195 2,742 25% na na
Wireless Operating Metrics for Idea Standalone
Subscriber Base (m) 34.2 38.9 14% 38.9 0%
ARPU (Rs per month) 266 254 -5% 251 1%
Average MoU per user 416 402 -3% 405 -1%
Average Revenue per Minute (Rs) 0.64 0.63 -2% 0.62 2%
Total network minutes 40,254 44,224 10%
Post-paid Churn 2.7% 3.0%
Prepaid Churn 4.4% 5.3%
Blended Churn 4.3% 5.2%
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 2009
-
8/8/2019 Idea Cellular+PDF
3/12
24April2009
3
Fig 2 Global emerging market telecom valuation
Macquarie - Global Emerging Market Telecom Valuation
Bloomberg Reco Price EV/EBITDA (x) PER (x) PEG ROE EBITDA C
Company Name Ticker lcy FY3/10E FY3/11E FY3/10E FY3/11E (FY3/09-3/11E) (FY3/09E, %) (FY3/09-3/11
Bharti Airtel BHARTI IN OP 708 7.3 6.1 12.1 10.7 0.7 33.9
Reliance Communications RCOM IN OP 224 6.9 5.7 8.7 7.6 1.4 23.0
Idea Cellular IDEA IN UP 58 7.1 6.2 17.5 16.6 2.7 23.1
MTNL MTNL IN UP 73 7.8 7.9 80.1 -16.5 na 1.0
China Mobile 941 HK N 69 4.4 4.3 10.9 11.2 -8.2 27.8
China Unicom 762 HK UP 8 4.1 4.3 16.0 21.8 -0.5 7.4
Indosat ISAT IJ N 5,250 4.4 4.3 12.1 10.6 0.9 12.4
SK Telecom 017670 KS OP 184,500 3.7 3.4 9.1 7.5 0.6 11.5
KT Freetel 032390 KS OP 25,600 3.3 2.7 16.8 9.7 -1.5 3.8
LG Telecom 032640 KQ OP 8,570 3.2 2.8 7.1 6.6 0.5 15.1
Digi.Com DIGI MK N 22 7.5 6.7 12.7 11.4 4.5 65.7
Axiata AXIATA MK N 2 5.8 5.1 12.3 10.6 -1.0 4.8
Globe GLO PM OP 820 3.1 2.9 7.1 6.8 1.0 24.1
Far EasTone 4904 TT N 35 5.0 5.1 10.2 9.9 2.6 14.1
Taiwan Mobile 3045 TT N 50 5.3 5.2 8.9 9.1 5.7 37.4
AIS ADVANC TB UP 78 5.6 5.8 13.2 12.7 -1.1 23.9
TAC DTAC TB UP 28 4.2 4.1 5.9 5.4 -0.3 17.0
MobileOne M1 SP OP 2 5.5 5.5 9.8 10.2 na 72.1
MTN Group Ltd MTN SJ OP 10,350 3.6 3.2 8.5 6.9 0.3 27.3Orascom Telecom ORTE EY NR 30 3.9 3.8 7.8 6.0
Vivo Participacoes Sa VIVO3 BZ NR 33 3.0 2.8 9.9 7.5
America Movil AMXL MM NR 21 5.2 5.1 9.2 8.1
Etihad Etisalat Co EEC AB NR 36 5.8 5.7 9.5 8.4
Saudi Telecom Co STC AB NR 44 5.5 5.3 6.8 6.9
Qatar Telecom QTEL QD NR 103 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.9
Average 4.9 4.6 10.2 9.4
Average (ex-China Mobile) 4.9 4.6 10.2 9.3
RCOM's valuation (discount)/premium to Bharti -6% -6% -28% -29%
Idea's valuation (discount)/premium to Bharti -3% 1% 45% 55%
Note: Prices as of 23 April 2009.
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, April 2009
RCOM is trading at a 6% discount to Bharti onMarch 2010E EV/EBITDA; Idea is trading atonly a 3% discount.
-
8/8/2019 Idea Cellular+PDF
4/12
Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer Idea Cellular
24 April 2009 4
Detailed financials for Idea Cellular
Fig 3 Idea Cellular Income statement, fiscal year-end MarchParticulars (Rs m except EPS) FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E
RevenuesService Revenue 43,500 67,199 93,716 111,193 126,398
Sales of Trading Goods 164 0 - - -
Total Revenues 43,664 67,199 93,716 111,193 126,398
Operating Expenses
Cost of Trading Goods (52) (0) (25) - -
(% of revenues from trading goods) 31.6%
Personnel Expenditure (2,609) (3,464) (5,125) (6,218) (6,839)
(% of total revenues) 6.0% 5.2% 5.5% 5.6% 5.4%
Network Operating Expenditure (5,336) (10,470) (18,024) (21,956) (24,268)
(% of total revenues) 12.2% 15.6% 19.2% 19.7% 19.2%
License and WPC Charges (4,487) (6,851) (10,224) (11,453) (12,893)
(% of total revenues) 10.3% 10.2% 10.9% 10.3% 10.2%
Roaming & Access Charges (7,321) (11,334) (16,801) (19,148) (21,488)
(% of total revenues) 16.8% 16.9% 17.9% 17.2% 17.0%
Subscriber Acquisition & Servicing Expenditure (5,643) (6,424) (8,405) (10,007) (11,376)
(% of total revenues) 12.9% 9.6% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
Advertisement and Business Promotion Expenditure (2,006) (3,225) (4,176) (5,004) (5,309)
(% of total revenues) 4.6% 4.8% 4.5% 4.5% 4.2%
Administration & other Expenses (1,558) (2,914) (4,368) (5,299) (5,389)
(% of total revenues) 3.6% 4.3% 4.7% 4.8% 4.3%
Total Operating Expense (29,011) (44,682) (67,148) (79,084) (87,562)
(% of total revenues) 66.4% 66.5% 71.7% 71.1% 69.3%
EBITDA 14,653 22,517 26,568 32,109 38,837
EBITDA Margin 33.6% 33.5% 28.3% 28.9% 30.7%
Other Income 209 175 180 178 178
Depreciation (5,637) (7,569) (11,227) (16,319) (20,135)
Amortisation of Intangible Assets (1,081) (1,199) (1,726) (1,611) (1,610)
Amortisation of Miscellaneous Expenditure - - - - 0
EBIT 8,144 13,924 13,794 14,357 17,270
EBIT Margin 18.7% 20.7% 14.7% 12.9% 13.7%
Interest Income 53 1,282 4,282 2,977 1,126
Interest and Financing Charges (3,104) (4,058) (8,174) (5,582) (5,832)
Profit Before Taxes (PBT) 5,093 11,148 9,902 11,752 12,564
Income tax (expense) / benefit (70) (725) (1,059) (1,453) (1,728)
Exceptionals - - - - 0
Profit After Taxes (PAT) 5,022 10,423 8,843 10,299 10,836
Adjusted Net Profit (pre-exceptionals) 5,022 10,423 8,843 10,299 10,836Diluted EPS 2.15 3.96 3.04 3.32 3.50
YoY Growth (%)
Service Revenues 47.5 54.5 39.5 18.6 13.7
Total Revenues 47.2 53.9 39.5 18.6 13.7
Personnel Expenditure 46.5 32.8 48.0 21.3 10.0
Network Operating Expenditure 68.9 96.2 72.1 21.8 10.5
License and WPC Charges 48.6 52.7 49.2 12.0 12.6
Roaming & Access Charges 47.5 54.8 48.2 14.0 12.2
Subscriber Acquisition & Servicing Expenditure 72.4 13.8 30.8 19.1 13.7
Advertisement and Business Promotion Expenditure 60.1 60.7 29.5 19.8 6.1
Administration & other Expenses 6.9 87.0 49.9 21.3 1.7
Operating Expenses 52.8 54.0 50.3 17.8 10.7
EBITDA 37.3 53.7 18.0 20.9 21.0Net Profit After Taxes 137.2 107.5 (15.2) 16.5 5.2
Diluted EPS 129.4 84.2 (23.2) 9.3 5.2
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 2009
-
8/8/2019 Idea Cellular+PDF
5/12
Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer Idea Cellular
24 April 2009 5
Fig 4 Idea Cellular balance sheet, fiscal year-end MarchParticulars (Rs m) FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E
ASSETS
Cash and cash equivalents 18,199 4,975 53,370 13,203 6,459
Sundry Debtors 1,525 1,986 3,445 4,022 4,242
Inventories 179 276 413 483 537
Loans and Advances 4,000 7,742 6,116 6,914 8,547
Other Current Asset 758 521 2,205 2,574 2,857
Total Current Assets 24,660 15,500 65,549 27,196 22,642
Gross Block 70,473 110,141 182,784 254,654 301,172
Less: Depreciation (26,306) (31,242) (42,469) (58,788) (78,923)
Property and Equipment, net 44,167 78,899 140,315 195,865 222,249
Acquired intangible assets, net 11,864 17,892 16,366 14,954 13,544
Capital Work in progress 5,069 10,372 16,222 16,222 16,222
Other fixed assets 16,933 28,264 32,588 31,176 29,766
Goodwill 61 61 61 61 61
Investments 12 5,560 5,560 5,560 5,560
Deferred taxes (net) (11) (661) (1,006) (1,006) (1,006)
Total Assets 85,823 127,623 243,066 258,853 279,273
LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
Current Liabilities
Sundry Creditors 16,109 17,599 24,925 28,608 31,674
Bank overdraft 665 2,273 2,991 3,433 3,598
Advances from Customers 2,565 4,054 5,512 6,435 7,315
Deposits from Customers 570 557 689 804 914
Other Liabilities 1,055 1,627 2,193 2,517 2,879
Interest accrued but not due 18 93 - - -
Total Current Liability 20,982 26,203 36,310 41,798 46,382
Provisions 538 819 534 534 534
Total Current Liabilities 21,520 27,022 36,845 42,333 46,916
Secured Loans 35,398 54,549 27,071 27,071 27,071
Unsecured Loans 7,107 10,605 30,816 30,816 35,816
Total Borrowings 42,505 65,154 57,887 57,887 62,887
Stockholders' equity
Equity Share Capital 25,928.6 26,354 31,001 31,001 31,001
Preference Share Capital - - 31,360 31,360 31,360
Share Capital 25,928.6 26,354 62,361 62,361 62,361
Advance against Share capital - - - - -
Reserves and Surplus 20,371 23,134 91,253 91,253 91,253Profit and Loss Account (24,502) (14,079) (5,279) 5,019 15,855
Total stockholders' equity 21,798 35,446 148,335 158,633 169,469
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity 85,823 127,623 243,066 258,853 279,273
Key Ratios
RoE (%) 30% 36% 10% 7% 7%
RoCE (%) 11% 13% 7% 6% 6%
Net debt 24,958 56,892 1,948 42,557 54,467
Net Debt / Equity 1.14 1.61 0.01 0.27 0.32
Gross Debt/Equity 1.95 1.84 0.39 0.36 0.4
Net Debt / EBITDA 1.7 2.5 0.1 1.3 1.4
Working Capital ex cash/Revenues (%) -33% -23% -26% -25% -24%
Net working capital days -121.4 -85.2 -94.0 -91.3 -87.2Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 2009
-
8/8/2019 Idea Cellular+PDF
6/12
Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer Idea Cellular
24 April 2009 6
Fig 5 Idea Cellular cashflow statement, fiscal year-end MarchParticulars (Rs m) FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E
Cashflow from operating activities
Net Profit/(Loss) after Tax 5,022 10,423 8,843 10,299 10,836
Adjustments For
Depreciation, Amortisation of assets 6,718 8,768 12,954 17,930 21,745
Interest charge and Forex 3,051 4,592 8,174 5,582 5,832
Profit on sale of current investment -81 -432 0 0 0
Provision for Bad & Doubtful Debts/Advances 368 245 0 0 0
Provision for Gratuity, Leave Encashment & ARO 160 54 -285 0 0
Provision for Fringe Benefit Tax 59 74 77 160 157
Provision for Tax (Net of Current Tax, Deferred Tax & MAT Credit) 11 651 982 1,293 1,570
Dividend income 0 0 0 0 0
Interest received -171 -850 -4,282 -2,977 -1,126
(Profit)/ Loss on sale of fixed assets/ assets discarded -2 9 0 0 0
Operating profit before working capital changes 14,961 23,433 26,463 32,287 39,015
Changes in current assets and current liabilities
(Increase)/Decrease in Sundry Debtors -590 -706 -1,459 -577 -220
(Increase)/Decrease in Inventories -70 -97 -137 -69 -54
(Increase)/Decrease in Other Current Assets 28 163 -1,684 -369 -283
(Increase)/Decrease in Loans and Advances -2,031 -3,381 1,627 -799 -1,633
Increase /(Decrease) in Current Liabilities 3,861 6,242 7,326 3,683 3,067
Cash generated from operations 16,159 25,654 32,136 34,155 39,891
Tax paid ( FBT & TDS ) -102 -431 -714 -1,453 -1,728
Net cash from operating activities 16,057 25,224 31,422 32,702 38,164
cashflow from investing activities
Purchase of Fixed assets (including CWIP ) -22,819 -55,726 -78,693 -72,070 -46,719Investments in Subsidiaries 0 0 0 0 0
Proceeds from sale of Fixed assets 19 151 0 0 0
Sale/ (purchase) of Other Investments ( Net ) -102 -5,116 0 0 0
Interest and Dividend Received 145 923 4,282 2,977 1,126
Net cash used in investing activities -22,756 -59,768 -74,411 -69,093 -45,593
Cashflow from financing activities
Proceeds/ Advance received from issue of Share Capital 24,380 3,188 4,572 0 0
Redemption of preference shares -7,563 0 31,360 0 0
Proceeds from Long term borrowings 35,397 20,632 0 0 0
Repayment of Long Term Borrowings -15,690 -1,481 -27,477 0 0
Proceeds from Short Term Loan 17,875 22,121 30,211 0 5,000
Repayment of Short Term Loan -27,959 -18,623 -10,000 0 0
Proceeds from borrowings- Net 0 0 2,874 1,805 1,517Short Term Loan from / to subsidiary & other Body Corporates 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends including dividend tax 0 0 0 0 0
Interest Paid -3,039 -4,517 -8,267 -5,582 -5,832
Others 0 0 68,119 0 0
Net cash from financing activities 23,401 21,319 91,391 -3,776 685
Net increase / (decrease) in cash and cash equivalent 16,702 -13,225 48,402 -40,168 -6,744
Cash and cash equivalent at the beginning 1,493 18,199 4,975 53,370 13,203
Add :
Cash and cash equivalents taken over on acquisition 5 0 0 0 0
Cash and cash equivalent at the end 18,199 4,975 53,370 13,203 6,459
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 2009
-
8/8/2019 Idea Cellular+PDF
7/12
Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer Idea Cellular
24 April 2009 7
Fig 6 Key quarterly operating and financial metrics Wireless business: Bharti and RCOM
Bharti Airtel - Actuals for 3QFY09March Year ends; Rs million 4QFY07 1QFY08 2QFY08 3QFY08 4QFY08 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09A
Wireless Revenues (Rs m) 42,431 46,976 50,579 56,105 64,201 69,150 72,843 79,392YoY growth (%) 75.8 65.3 53.2 49.3 51.3 47.2 44.0 41.5 QoQ growth (%) 12.9 10.7 7.7 10.9 14.4 7.7 5.3 9.0
Subscribers (m) 37.14 42.70 48.88 55.16 61.98 69.38 77.48 85.65YoY growth (%) 89.7 85.1 80.6 72.5 66.9 62.5 58.5 55.3 QoQ growth (%) 16.2 15.0 14.5 12.9 12.4 11.9 11.7 10.5
Gross ARPU (Rs) 406 390 366 358 357 350 331 324YoY growth (%) -8.1 -11.5 -16.5 -16.2 -12.1 -10.4 -9.5 -9.3 QoQ growth (%) -4.8 -3.9 -6.3 -2.2 -0.2 -2.1 -5.3 -2.0
Avg. monthly MoUs per subscriber 475 478 469 474 507 534 526 505YoY growth (%) 10.1 8.3 3.9 1.4 6.8 11.8 12.2 6.7 QoQ growth (%) 1.6 0.7 -1.9 1.1 7.0 5.4 -1.6 -3.9
ARPM (Rs) 0.86 0.82 0.78 0.76 0.70 0.65 0.63 0.64YoY growth (%) -16.6 -18.3 -19.6 -17.3 -17.7 -19.9 -19.4 -14.9 QoQ growth (%) -6.3 -4.5 -4.4 -3.3 -6.7 -7.1 -3.8 2.1
Total minutes carried (m) 49,240 57,125 64,375 73,840 89,058 105,217 115,834 123,626YoY growth (%) 112.4 102.6 90.2 78.8 80.9 84.2 79.9 67.4 QoQ growth (%) 19.2 16.0 12.7 14.7 20.6 18.1 10.1 6.7
Avg. EBITDA per minute (Rs) 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.26 0.20 0.19 0.20YoY growth (%) -10.4 -9.0 -10.3 -9.3 -24.2 -39.6 -41.0 -34.8 QoQ growth (%) -1.2 -1.1 -3.5 -3.8 -17.4 -21.2 -5.7 6.3
Wireless EBITDA (Rs m) 16,604 19,087 20,728 22,887 22,779 21,218 22,009 24,963
YoY growth (%) 89.8 84.6 70.2 62.0 37.2 11.2 6.2 9.1QoQ growth (%) 17.5 15.0 8.6 10.4 -0.5 -6.9 3.7 13.4
EBITDA margin (%) 39.1 40.6 41.0 40.8 35.5 30.7 30.2 31.4YoY expansion (basis points) 289.2 423.4 410.0 319.5 -365.1 -994.7 -1,076.7 -935.0 QoQ expansion (basis points) 153.4 150.0 35.0 -18.8 -531.2 -479.7 -47.0 122.8
Blended Churn 3.6% 4.0% 3.8% 3.9% 4.3% 3.8% 3.2% 2.9%VAS as % of total revenue 10.1% 9.9% 9.8% 9.3% 9.4% 9.7% 10.0% 9.5%
YoY growth (%) -5.6 -8.3 -4.9 -10.6 -6.9 -2.0 2.0 2.2 QoQ growth (%) -2.9 -2.0 -1.0 -5.1 1.1 3.2 3.1 -5.0
Total Cell Sites 39,224 45,784 52,826 60,299 69,141 75,876 82,554 88,319YoY growth (%) 87.0 81.9 75.9 75.8 76.3 65.7 56.3 46.5 QoQ growth (%) 14.3 16.7 15.4 14.1 14.7 9.7 8.8 7.0
Wireless Capex (Rs m) 10,706 32,806 28,661 27,538 17,995 32,227 23,396 29,012YoY growth (%) -39.4 81.7 4.4 76.6 68.1 -1.8 -18.4 5.4 QoQ growth (%) -31.4 206.4 -12.6 -3.9 -34.7 79.1 -27.4 24.0
To tal Popu lation Centres co vered 212,003 248,439 294,876 325,525 347,646 369,335 389,571 406,939YoY growth (%) 151.2 135.2 85.0 79.7 64.0 48.7 32.1 25.0 QoQ growth (%) 17.0 17.2 18.7 10.4 6.8 6.2 5.5 4.5
Total employees 20,314 22,955 23,264 24,703 25,543 26,144 25,616 25,553
YoY growth (%) na na na 35.6 25.7 13.9 10.1 3.4 QoQ growth (%) 11.5 13.0 1.3 6.2 3.4 2.4 -2.0 -0.2
Reliance Communications - Actuals for 3QFY09
March Year ends; Rs million 4QFY07 1QFY08 2QFY08 3QFY08 4QFY08 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09A
Wireless Revenues (Rs m) 29,692 33,730 37,230 39,567 41,608 41,187 43,356 44,119YoY growth (%) 40.0 38.7 44.6 43.8 40.1 22.1 16.5 11.5 QoQ growth (%) 7.9 13.6 10.4 6.3 5.2 -1.0 5.3 1.8
Subscribers (m) 28.01 31.87 36.32 40.96 45.79 50.79 56.05 61.35YoY growth (%) 38.6 41.5 39.8 36.6 63.5 59.4 54.3 49.8 QoQ growth (%) -6.6 13.8 14.0 12.8 11.8 10.9 10.4 9.5
Gross ARPU (Rs) 377 375 361 339 317 282 271 251
YoY growth (%) -0.5 -1.1 2.0 3.4 -15.9 -24.8 -24.9 -26.0 QoQ growth (%) 14.9 -0.5 -3.7 -6.1 -6.5 -11.0 -3.9 -7.4
Avg. monthly MoUs per subscriber 541 510 490 449 430 425 423 410YoY growth (%) 1.7 3.9 6.3 -1.1 -20.5 -16.7 -13.7 -8.7 QoQ growth (%) 19.2 -5.7 -3.9 -8.4 -4.2 -1.2 -0.4 -3.1
ARPM (Rs) 0.70 0.74 0.74 0.76 0.74 0.66 0.64 0.61
YoY growth (%) -2.2 -4.7 -4.1 4.5 5.8 -9.7 -13.0 -18.9 QoQ growth (%) -3.5 5.5 0.2 2.5 -2.4 -9.9 -3.5 -4.4 Total minutes carried (m) 47,057 45,805 50,122 52,054 55,959 61,527 67,786 72,195
YoY growth (%) na na na na na na na na QoQ growth (%) na na na na na na na na
Avg. EBITDA per minute (Rs) 0.27 0.29 0.26 0.30 0.30 0.27 0.25 0.23YoY growth (%) 6.3 5.2 -4.9 12.5 10.7 -7.4 -5.6 -24.3 QoQ growth (%) 0.2 8.0 -9.9 15.3 -1.4 -9.7 -8.1 -7.5
Wireless EBITDA (Rs m) 11,511 13,392 14,873 15,819 16,763 16,623 16,859 16,616YoY growth (%) 52.0 53.1 60.0 53.7 45.6 24.1 13.4 5.0 QoQ growth (%) 11.8 16.3 11.1 6.4 6.0 -0.8 1.4 -1.4
EBITDA margin (%) 38.8 39.7 39.9 40.0 40.3 40.4 38.9 37.7
YoY expansion (basis points) 306.6 374.1 384.6 257.1 152.0 65.6 -106.4 -231.9 QoQ expansion (basis points) 135.9 93.6 24.5 3.1 30.8 7.2 -147.5 -122.3
Blended Churn nmf nmf 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.0%VAS as % of total revenue 6.3% 5.7% 6.2% 6.4% 6.9% 7.6% 7.3% 7.4%
YoY growth (%) 3.3 -8.1 -1.6 1.6 9.5 33.3 17.7 15.6 QoQ growth (%) 0.0 -9.5 8.8 3.2 7.8 10.1 -3.9 1.4
Total Cell Sites na na na na na na na naYoY growth (%) na na na na na na na na QoQ growth (%) na na na na na na na na
Wireless Capex (Rs m) 9,860 14,973 49,685 60,605 46,442 56,926 33,260 32,508YoY growth (%) na 110.2 231.6 401.3 371.0 280.2 -33.1 -46.4 QoQ growth (%) -18.4 51.9 231.8 22.0 -23.4 22.6 -41.6 -2.3
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 2009
-
8/8/2019 Idea Cellular+PDF
8/12
Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer Idea Cellular
24 April 2009 8
Fig 7 Key quarterly operating and financial metrics Wireless business: Vodafone Essar, Idea and MTNLVodafone Essar - Actuals for 3QFY09
March Year ends; Rs million 4QFY07 1QFY08 2QFY08 3QFY08 4QFY08 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09A
Wireless revenues (in Rsm) na na 34,891 36,300 41,887 46,474 47,498 51,481
YoY growth (%) na na na na na na 36.1 41.8
QoQ growth (%) na na na 4.0 15.4 11.0 2.2 8.4 Wireless revenues (in GBPm) na na 440 491 559 565 574 674
YoY growth (%) na na na na na na 30.5 37.3 QoQ growth (%) na na na 11.6 13.8 1.1 1.6 17.4
Subscribers (m) 26.44 30.75 33.68 35.66 44.13 49.20 54.63 60.93
YoY growth (%) 72.1 75.3 65.5 53.0 66.9 60.0 62.2 70.9
QoQ growth (%) 13.5 16.3 9.5 5.9 23.7 11.5 11.0 11.5 Gross ARPU (Rs) 405 na 361 349 350 332 305 297
YoY growth (%) -10.7 na -14.0 -15.7 -13.6 na -15.5 -14.9
QoQ growth (%) -2.1 na na -3.3 0.3 -5.1 -8.1 -2.6 Avg. monthly MoUs per subscriber 432 415 373 384 391 374 364 355
YoY growth (%) 14.3 5.9 -8.2 -10.5 -9.6 na -2.2 -7.4
QoQ growth (%) 0.7 -3.9 -10.3 3.0 1.8 -4.2 -2.6 -2.5 ARPM (Rs) 0.94 na 0.97 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.84 0.84
YoY growth (%) -21.9 na -6.3 -5.8 -4.4 na -13.6 -8.1
QoQ growth (%) -2.8 na na -6.1 -1.5 -0.9 -5.7 -0.2 Total minutes carried (m) 32,242 35,626 36,011 39,913 46,734 52,349 56,745 61,606
YoY growth (%) na na na na na na 57.6 54.4
QoQ growth (%) na na na 10.8 17.1 12.0 8.4 8.6 Blended Churn na na na na na na na naTotal Cell Sites na na na 41,000 48,000 52,000 59,000 69,000
YoY growth (%) na na na na na na na 68.3 QoQ growth (%) na na na na 17.1 8.3 13.5 16.9
Idea Cellular - Actuals for 3QFY09
March Year ends; Rs million 4QFY07 1QFY08 2QFY08 3QFY08 4QFY08 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09A
Wireless Revenues (Rs m) 13,057 14,773 15,622 17,081 19,724 21,735 22,992 27,286
YoY growth (%) na 65.2 56.1 49.0 51.1 47.1 47.2 59.7
QoQ growth (%) 13.9 13.1 5.7 9.3 15.5 10.2 5.8 18.7 Subscribers (m) 14.01 16.13 18.67 21.05 24.00 27.19 30.38 34.21
YoY growth (%) na 88.9 80.2 69.2 71.3 68.6 62.7 42.5
QoQ growth (%) 12.6 15.1 15.8 12.8 14.0 13.3 11.7 12.6 Gross ARPU (Rs) 317 320 288 279 287 278 261 266
YoY growth (%) na -15.2 -14.0 -13.4 -9.5 -13.1 -9.4 -4.7
QoQ growth (%) -1.6 0.9 -10.0 -3.1 2.9 -3.1 -6.1 1.9 Avg. monthly MoUs per subscriber 387 381 360 377 411 428 417 410
YoY growth (%) na 7.0 4.7 2.2 6.2 12.3 15.8 8.8
QoQ growth (%) 4.9 -1.6 -5.5 4.7 9.0 4.1 -2.6 -1.7 ARPM (Rs) 0.82 0.84 0.80 0.74 0.70 0.65 0.62 0.65
YoY growth (%) na -20.8 -17.9 -15.2 -14.8 -22.7 -22.5 -12.3
QoQ growth (%) -6.1 2.5 -4.8 -7.5 -5.6 -7.0 -4.5 4.6 Total minutes carried (m) 15,469 17,100 18,831 22,457 27,824 33,087 36,315 40,254
YoY growth (%) na 111.2 93.4 77.8 79.9 93.5 92.8 79.2
QoQ growth (%) 22.5 10.5 10.1 19.3 23.9 18.9 9.8 10.8 Avg. EBITDA per minute (Rs) 0.27 0.30 0.27 0.25 0.24 0.22 0.17 na
YoY growth (%) na -16.1 -21.1 -14.0 -12.7 -26.4 -38.5 na
QoQ growth (%) -7.3 9.6 -8.9 -7.1 -5.8 -7.6 -23.8 na Wireless EBITDA (Rs m) 4,363 5,128 5,107 5,672 6,606 7,219 6,024 6,950
YoY growth (%) na 69.8 43.9 53.1 51.4 40.8 18.0 22.5
QoQ growth (%) 17.7 17.5 -0.4 11.1 16.5 9.3 -16.6 15.4 EBITDA margin (%) 33.4 34.7 32.7 33.2 33.5 33.2 26.2 25.5
YoY expansion (basis points) na 93.7 -275.2 88.1 7.9 -149.6 -649.1 -773.7
QoQ expansion (basis points) 108.8 129.6 -201.9 51.6 28.6 -27.8 -701.5 -73.0 Blended Churn 4.2% 4.2% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6% 4.0% 3.9% 4.3%VAS as % of total revenue 9.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 8.2% 8.9% 9.8% 9.5%
YoY growth (%) na -8.7 -13.5 -13.0 -8.9 6.0 18.1 18.8
QoQ growth (%) -2.2 -6.7 -1.2 -3.6 2.5 8.5 10.1 -3.1Total Cell Sites na 13,160 17,105 21,197 24,793 27,594 33,377 39,286
YoY growth (%) na na na na na 109.7 95.1 85.3 QoQ growth (%) na na 30.0 23.9 17.0 11.3 21.0 17.7
Total capex (Rs m) na 11,062 12,352 11,946 19,161 19,817 11,950 13,525
YoY growth (%) na na na na na 79.1 -3.3 13.2
QoQ growth (%) na na 11.7 -3.3 60.4 3.4 -39.7 13.2 Total Population Centres covered 4,432 6,066 8,413 11,104 13,308 na na na
YoY growth (%) na 167.1 177.6 207.8 200.3 na na na
QoQ growth (%) 22.9 36.9 38.7 32.0 19.8 na na na Total employees 5,532 5,638 5,865 5,923 6,107 6,380 6,521 6,670
YoY growth (%) na 27.5 27.6 27.5 10.4 13.2 11.2 12.6
QoQ growth (%) 19.0 1.9 4.0 1.0 3.1 4.5 2.2 2.3
MTNL- Actuals for 3QFY09
March Year ends; Rs million 4QFY07 1QFY08 2QFY08 3QFY08 4QFY08 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09A
Wireless Revenues (Rs m) 1,974 2,241 2,523 2,329 2,409 2,298 2,332 2,269
YoY growth (%) 15.1 11.1 26.4 6.3 22.0 2.5 -7.6 -2.6
QoQ growth (%) -9.9 13.5 12.6 -7.7 3.4 -4.6 1.5 -2.7 Subscribers (m) 2.94 2.81 2.99 3.21 3.53 3.72 3.96 4.18
YoY growth (%) 43.7 25.0 26.3 26.5 20.1 32.2 32.2 30.2 QoQ growth (%) 15.9 -4.4 6.5 7.2 10.0 5.3 6.4 5.6
Blended ARPU GSM (Rs) 228 253 284 242 237 213 207 188
YoY growth (%) -24.2 -12.5 4.2 -12.6 3.7 -15.7 -27.2 -22.2
QoQ growth (%) -17.7 10.7 12.6 -14.8 -2.3 -10.0 -2.8 -9.0
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 2009
-
8/8/2019 Idea Cellular+PDF
9/12
Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer Idea Cellular
24 April 2009 9
Idea Cellular (IDEA IN, Underperform, Target price: Rs45.00)Balance Sheet 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E Profit & Loss 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
Cash m 10,535 58,931 18,763 12,019 Revenue m 67,200 93,716 111,193 126,398Receivables m 1,986 3,445 4,022 4,242 Gross Profit m 38,574 48,643 58,637 67,750Inventor ies m 276 413 483 537 Cost of Goods Sold m 28,626 45,074 52,556 58,649Investments m 0 0 0 0 EBITDA m 22,513 26,568 32,109 38,837Fixed Assets m 107,163 172,902 227,042 252,015 Deprecia tion m 7,404 11,227 16,319 20,135Intangibles m 61 61 61 61 Amortisation of Goodwill m 0 0 0 0Other Assets m 8,263 8,320 9,488 11,404 Other Amortisation m 1,364 1,726 1,610 1,610Total Assets m 128,284 244,072 259,859 280,279 EBIT m 13,744 13,615 14,179 17,092Payables m 17,599 24,925 28,608 31,674 Net Interest Income m -2,771 -3,892 -2,605 -4,706Short Term Debt m 2,273 2,991 3,433 3,598 Associates m 0 0 0 0Long Term Debt m 65,154 57,887 57,887 62,887 Exceptionals m 0 0 0 0Provisions m 819 534 534 534 Forex Gains / Losses m 0 0 0 0Other Liabilities m 6,992 9,400 10,763 12,115 Other Pre-Tax Income m 176 180 178 178Total Liabil ities m 92,837 95,738 101,226 110,809 Pre-Tax Profi t m 11,149 9,902 11,752 12,564Shareholders' Funds m 35,408 148,335 158,633 169,469 Tax Expense m -725 -1,059 -1,453 -1,728Minority Interests m 0 0 0 0 Net Profit m 10,424 8,843 10,299 10,836Other m 0 0 0 0 Minority Interests m 0 0 0 0Total S/H Equity m 35,408 148,335 158,633 169,469Total Liab & S/H Funds m 128,246 244,072 259,859 280,279 Reported Earnings m 10,424 8,843 10,299 10,836
Adjusted Earnings m 10,424 8,843 10,299 10,836
EPS (rep) 3.96 3.08 3.32 3.50EPS (adj) 3.96 3.09 3.32 3.50EPS Growth (adj) % 107.5 -22.0 7.6 5.2
PE (rep) x 14.4 18.5 17.2 16.3PE (adj) x 14.4 18.5 17.2 16.3
Total DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total Div Yield % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Weighted Average Shares m 2,635 2,868 3,100 3,100Period End Shares m 2,636 3,100 3,100 3,100
Profit and Loss Ratios 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E Cashflow Analysis 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
Revenue Growth % 53.9 39.5 18.6 13.7 EBITDA m 22,513 26,568 32,109 38,837EBITDA Growth % 53.8 18.0 20.9 21.0 Tax Paid m -64 -714 -1,453 -1,728EBIT Growth % 73.6 -0.9 4.1 20.5 Chgs in Working Cap m -2,574 5,673 1,868 877Gross Profit Margin % 57.4 51.9 52.7 53.6 Net Interest Paid m -4,468 -8,174 -5,582 -5,832EBITDA Margin % 33.5 28.3 28.9 30.7 Other m 4,925 8,069 5,760 6,010EBIT Margin % 20.5 14.5 12.8 13.5 Operating Cashflow m 20,332 31,422 32,702 38,164Net Profit Margin % 15.5 9.4 9.3 8.6 Acquisitions m 0 0 0 0Payout Ratio % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capex m -54,521 -78,693 -72,070 -46,719EV/EBITDA x 7.8 7.6 6.3 5.2 Asset Sales m 28 0 0 0
EV/EBIT x 12.7 14.8 14.2 11.8 Other m -3,851 4,282 2,977 1,126 Invest ing Cashflow m -58,345 -74,411 -69,093 -45,593
Balance Sheet Ratios Dividend (Ordinary) m 0 0 0 0ROE % 36.4 9.6 6.7 6.6 Equity Raised m 3,188 35,932 0 0ROA % 12.8 7.3 5.6 6.3 Debt Movements m 26,294 -4,393 1,805 6,517ROIC % 27.5 13.2 8.3 7.3 Other m -4,393 59,852 -5,582 -5,832Net Debt/Equity % 160.7 1.3 26.8 32.1 Financing Cashflow m 25,089 91,391 -3,776 685Interest Cover x 5.0 3.5 5.4 3.6 Price/Book x 4.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 Net Chg in Cash/Debt m -12,924 48,402 -40,168 -6,744Book Value per Share 13.4 47.8 51.2 54.7
All figures in INR unless noted.Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 2009
-
8/8/2019 Idea Cellular+PDF
10/12
Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer Idea Cellular
24 April 2009 10
Important disclosures:
Recommendation definitions
Macquarie - Australia/New ZealandOutperform return >5% in excess of benchmark returnNeutral return within 5% of benchmark returnUnderperform return >5% below benchmark return
Macquarie Asia/Europe
Outperform expected return >+10%Neutral expected return from -10% to +10%Underperform expected return +10%Neutral expected return from -10% to +10%Underperform expected return 5% in excess of benchmark returnNeutral return within 5% of benchmark returnUnderperform return >5% below benchmark return
Macquarie - USAOutperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of benchmarkreturn (Russell 3000)Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of benchmark return(Russell 3000)Underperform (Sell) return >5% below benchmarkreturn (Russell 3000)
Recommendations 12 months
Note: Quant recommendations may differ fromFundamental Analyst recommendations
Volatility index definition*
This is calculated from the volatility of historicalprice movements.
Very highhighest risk Stock should beexpected to move up or down 60100% in a year investors should be aware this stock is highlyspeculative.
High stock should be expected to move up ordown at least 4060% in a year investors shouldbe aware this stock could be speculative.
Medium stock should be expected to move up ordown at least 3040% in a year.
Lowmedium stock should be expected to moveup or down at least 2530% in a year.
Low stock should be expected to move up ordown at least 1525% in a year.* Applicable to Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only
Financial definitions
All "Adjusted" data items have had the followingadjustments made:Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision forcatastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging,IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expenseExcluded: non recurring items, asset revals, propertyrevals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends &minority interests
EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa*ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assetsROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /averagetotal assetsROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders fundsGross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation*equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted averagenumber of shares
All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocksare modelled under IFRS (International FinancialReporting Standards).
Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 31 March 2009
AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUROutperform 40.44% 49.55% 44.83% 38.49% 67.19% 43.84%Neutral 38.60% 15.57% 39.66% 46.43% 28.12% 39.04%Underperform 20.96% 34.88% 15.52% 15.08% 4.69% 17.12%
Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities orissuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations orviews in this research. The analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues ofMacquarie Group Ltd ABN 94 122 169 279 (AFSL No. 318062 )(MGL) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group) and has taken reasonable care toachieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.
Disclaimers: Macquarie Securities (Australia) Ltd; Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd; Macquarie Capital MarketsNorth America Ltd; Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc; Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd; Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd; MacquarieSecurities (NZ) Ltd; and Macquarie First South Securities (Pty) Limited are not authorised deposit-taking institutions for the purposes of the Banking Act1959 (Commonwealth of Australia), and their obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542(MBL) or MGL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of any of the above mentioned entities. MGLprovides a guarantee to the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of the obligations and l iabilities of Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) PteLtd for up to SGD 35 million. This research has been prepared for the general use of the wholesale clients of the Macquarie Group and must not becopied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient you must not use or disclose the information inthis research in any way. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrainfrom engaging in any transaction. In preparing this research, we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particularneeds of the reader. Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research, the reader needs to consider, with or without the assistance ofan adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. There are risksinvolved in securities trading. The price of securities can and does fluctuate, and an individual security may even become valueless. Internationalinvestors are reminded of the additional risks inherent in international investments, such as currency fluctuations and international stock market oreconomic conditions, which may adversely affect the value of the investment. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed tobe reliable but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or updatethe information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. No member of the Macquarie Group accepts any liabilitywhatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to thisresearch.
Other Disclaimers: In Canada, securities research is prepared, approved and distributed by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd, a participatingorganisation of the Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange & Montral Exchange. Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd., which is aregistered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, accepts responsibility for the contents of reports issued by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd inthe United States and to US persons and any person wishing to effect transactions in the securities described in the reports issued by Macquarie CapitalMarkets Canada Ltd should do so with Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd. Securities research is issued and distributed by MacquarieSecurities (Australia) Ltd (AFSL No. 238947) in Australia, a participating organisation of the Australian Securities Exchange; Macquarie Securities (NZ)Ltd in New Zealand, a licensed sharebroker and New Zealand Exchange Firm; Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd in the United Kingdom, which isauthorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (No. 193905); Macquarie Capital Securi ties Ltd in Hong Kong, which is licensed andregulated by the Securities and Futures Commission; Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited in Japan, a member of the Tokyo Stock Exchange,Inc., Osaka Securities Exchange Co. Ltd, and Jasdaq Securities Exchange, Inc. (Financial Instruments Firm, Kanto Financial Bureau(kin-sho) No. 231,
a member of Japan securities Dealers Association and Financial Futures Association of Japan); Macquarie First South Securities (Pty) Limited in SouthAfrica, a member of the JSE Limited and in Singapore, Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (Company Registration Number: 198702912C),a Capital Markets Services licence holder under the Securities and Futures Act to deal in securities and provide custodial services in Singapore.Pursuant to the Financial Advisers (Amendment) Regulations 2005, Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd is exempt from complying withsections 25, 27 and 36 of the Financial Advisers Act. Clients should contact analysts at, and execute transactions through, a Macquarie Group entity intheir home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc., which is a registered broker-dealer and member ofFINRA, accepts responsibility for the content of each research report prepared by one of its non-US affiliates when the research report is distributed in
-
8/8/2019 Idea Cellular+PDF
11/12
Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer Idea Cellular
24 April 2009 11
the United States by Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. affiliate research reports and affiliate employees are not subject to thedisclosure requirements of FINRA rules. Any persons receiving this report directly from Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. and wishing to effect a transactionin any security described herein should do so with Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. The information contained in this document is confidential. If you arenot the intended recipient, you must not disclose or use the information in this document in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediatelyby return e-mail and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any e-mails or attached files and are not responsible for any changesmade to them by any other person. MGL has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level (which may be revised and updated fromtime to time) (the "Conflicts Policy") pursuant to regulatory requirements (including the FSA Rules) which sets out how we must seek to identify andmanage all material conflicts of interest. Disclosures with respect to the issuers, if any, mentioned in this research are available at
www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. Macquarie Group
AucklandTel: (649) 377 6433
LondonTel: (44 20) 3037 4400
ShanghaiTel: (86 21) 6841 3355
BangkokTel: (662) 694 7999
ManilaTel: (63 2) 857 0888
SingaporeTel: (65) 6231 1111
CalgaryTel: (1 403) 218 6650
MelbourneTel: (613) 9635 8139
SydneyTel: (612) 8232 9555
Hong KongTel: (852) 2823 3588
MontrealTel: (1 514) 925 2850
TaipeiTel: (886 2) 2734 7500
JakartaTel: (62 21) 515 1818
MumbaiTel: (91 22) 6653 3000
TokyoTel: (81 3) 3512 7900
JohannesburgTel: (2711) 583 2000
PerthTel: (618) 9224 0888
TorontoTel: (1 416) 848 3500
Kuala LumpurTel: (60 3) 2059 8833
SeoulTel: (82 2) 3705 8500
New YorkTel: (1 212) 231 2500
Available to clients on the world wide web at www.macquarie.com/research and through Thomson Financial, FactSet, Reuters and Bloomberg.
-
8/8/2019 Idea Cellular+PDF
12/12
Asia ResearchHead of Equity Research
Stephen OSullivan (852) 3922 3566
Automobiles/Auto Parts
Kenneth Yap (Indonesia) (6221) 515 7343Clive Wiggins (Japan) (813) 3512 7856Dan Lucas (Japan) (813) 3512 6050
Eunsook Kwak (Korea) (822) 3705 8644Linda Huang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7521
Banks and Non-Bank Financials
Ismael Pili (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 5979
Nick Lord (Asia, China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4774Sarah Wu (China) (8621) 2412 9035Seshadri Sen (India) (9122) 6653 3053Ferry Wong (Indonesia) (6221) 515 7335Chin Seng Tay (Malaysia, Spore) (65) 6231 2837Nadine Javellana (Philippines) (632) 857 0890Matthew Smith (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7514Alastair Macdonald (Thailand) (662) 694 7741
Chemicals/TextilesJal Irani (India) (9122) 6653 3040Christina Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 8670Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993
Conglomerates
Gary Pinge (Asia) (852) 3922 3557Leah Jiang (China) (8621) 2412 9020
Kenneth Yap (Indonesia) (6221) 515 7343Ashwin Sanketh (Singapore) (65) 6231 2830
Consumer
Mohan Singh (Asia) (852) 3922 1111
Jessie Qian (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3568Unmesh Sharma (India) (9122) 6653 3042Toby Williams (Japan) (813) 3512 7392Heather Kang (Korea) (822) 3705 8677HongSuk Na (Korea) (822) 3705 8678Edward Ong (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8982
Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899Linda Huang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7521
Emerging Leaders
Jake Lynch (Asia) (8621) 2412 9007Minoru Tayama (Japan) (813) 3512 6058Robert Burghart (Japan) (813) 3512 7853Heather Kang (Korea) (822) 3705 8677
Industrials
Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6653 3166
Christopher Cintavey (Japan) (813) 3512 7432Janet Lewis (Japan) (813) 3512 7475Michael Na (Korea) (822) 2095 7222Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993David Gambrill (Thailand) (662) 694 7753
Insurance
Mark Kellock (Asia) (852) 3922 3567Seshadri Sen (Asia, India) (9122) 6653 3053
Makarim Salman (Japan) (813) 3512 7421
Media
Jessie Qian (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3568Shubham Majumder (India) (9122) 6653 3049Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899
Oil and Gas
David Johnson (Asia, China) (852) 3922 4691Jal Irani (India) (9122) 6653 3040Polina Diyachkina (Japan) (813) 3512 7886Christina Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 8670Edward Ong (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8982Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993Ashwin Sanketh (Singapore) (65) 6231 2830
Pharmaceuticals
Abhishek Singhal (India) (9122) 6653 3052Naomi Kumagai (Japan) (813) 3512 7474Christina Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 8670
Property
Matt Nacard (Asia) (852) 3922 4731Eva Lee (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3573Chris Cheng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3581Unmesh Sharma (India) (9122) 6653 3042Chang Han Joo (Japan) (813) 3512 7885Hiroshi Okubo (Japan) (813) 3512 7433Tuck Yin Soong (Singapore) (65) 6231 2838Elaine Cheong (Singapore) (65) 6231 2839Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522Patti Tomaitrichi tr (Thailand) (662) 694 7727
Resources / Metals and Mining
Andrew Dale (Asia) (852) 3922 3587Xiao Li (China) (852) 3922 4626YeeMan Chin (China) (852) 3922 3562Rakesh Arora (India) (9122) 6653 3054Adam Worthington (Indonesia) (6221) 515 7338Polina Diyachkina (Japan) (813) 3512 7886Christina Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 8670
Technology
Warren Lau (Asia) (852) 3922 3592Do Hoon Lee (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1119Patrick Yau (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1264Damian Thong (Japan) (813) 3512 7877David Gibson (Japan) (813) 3512 7880George Chang (Japan) (813) 3512 7854Yukihiro Goto (Japan) (813) 3512 5984Michael Bang (Korea) (822) 3705 8659Chia-Lin Lu (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7526Daniel Chang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7516James Chiu (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7517Nicholas Teo (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7523
Telecoms
Tim Smart (Asia, China) (852) 3922 3565Bin Liu (China) (852) 3922 3634Shubham Majumder (India) (9122) 6653 3049Kenneth Yap (Indonesia) (6221) 515 7343Nathan Ramler (Japan) (813) 3512 7875
Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989Ramakrishna Maruvada(Philippines, Singapore, Thailand) (65) 6231 2842
Transport & Infrastructure
Gary Pinge (Asia) (852) 3922 3557Anderson Chow (Asia, China) (852) 3922 4773Jonathan Windham (Asia, China) (852) 3922 5417Wei Sim (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3598Janet Lewis (Japan) (813) 3512 7475
Eunsook Kwak (Korea) (822) 3705 8644Heather Kang (Korea) (822) 3705 8677Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993
Utilities
Carol Cao (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4075Adam Worthington (Indonesia) (6221) 515 7338Kakutoshi Ohori (Japan) (813) 3512 7296Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899
Commodities
Jim Lennon (4420) 3037 4271Adam Rowley (4420) 3037 4272
Jonathan Butcher (4420) 3037 4276Max Layton (4420) 3037 4273
Bonnie Liu (8621) 2412 9008Henry Liu (8621) 2412 9005Rakesh Arora (9122) 6653 3054
Data Services
Andrea Clohessy (Asia) (852) 3922 4076
Economics
Bill Belchere (Asia) (852) 3922 4636Rajeev Malik (ASEAN, India) (65) 6231 2841Richard Gibbs (Australia) (612) 8232 3935Paul Cavey (China) (852) 3922 3570Richard Jerram (Japan) (813) 3512 7855
Quantitative
Martin Emery (Asia) (852) 3922 3582Viking Kwok (Asia) (852) 3922 4735George Platt (Austral ia) (612) 8232 6539
Tsumugi Akiba (Japan) (813) 3512 7560Strategy/Country
Tim Rocks (Asia) (852) 3922 3585Daniel McCormack (Asia) (852) 3922 4073Desh Peramunetilleke (Asia) (852)3922 3564Mahesh Kedia (Asia) (852) 3922 3576Michael Kurtz (China) (8621) 2412 9002Seshadri Sen (India) (9122) 6653 3053
Ferry Wong (Indonesia) (6221) 515 7335Chris Hunt (Japan) (813) 3512 7878Peter Eadon-Clarke (Japan) (813) 3512 7850Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989Edward Ong (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8982Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899Tuck Yin Soong (ASEAN, Singapore) (65) 6231 2838Daniel Chang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7516
Alastair Macdonald (Thailand) (662) 694 7741
Find our research atMacquarie: www.macquarie.com.au/research
Thomson: www.thomson.com/financial
Reuters: www.knowledge.reuters.com
Bloomberg: MAC GO
Factset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspx
Email [email protected] for access
SalesRegional Heads of Sales
Peter Slater (Boston) (1 617) 598 2502Michelle Paisley (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3516
Thomas Renz (Geneva) (41) 22 818 7712Ajay Bhatia (India) (9122) 6653 3200Stuart Smythe (India) (9122) 6653 3200
Chris Gray (Indonesia) (6221) 515 7304Gino C Rojas (Philippines) (632) 857 0761Greg Norton-Kidd (New York) (1 212) 231 2527Luke Sullivan (New York) (1 212) 231 2507Scot Mackie (New York) (1 212) 231 2848Sheila Schroeder (San Francisco) (1 415) 835 1235
Regional Heads of Sales contd
Giles Heyring (Singapore, Malaysia) (65) 6231 2888Angus Kent (Thailand) (662) 694 7601Michael Newman (Tokyo) (813) 3512 7920Charles Nelson (UK/Europe) (44) 20 3037 4832Rob Fabbro (UK/Europe) (44) 20 3037 4865
Nick Ainsworth (Generalist) (852) 3922 2010Sales Trading
Adam Zaki (Asia) (852) 3922 2002Mona Lee (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 2085Mike Keen (Europe) (44) 20 3037 4905
Sales Trading contd
Brendan Rake (India) (9122) 6653 3204Edward Robinson (London) (44) 20 3037 4902
Robert Risman (New York) (1 212) 231 2555Isaac Huang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7582Jon Omori (Tokyo) (813) 3512 7838
Alternative StrategiesConvertibles - Roland Sharman (852) 3922 2095Depository Receipts - Robert Ansell (852)3922 2094Derivatives - Wayne Edelist (852) 3922 2134
Futures - Tim Smith (852) 3922 2113Structured Products - Andrew Terlich (852) 3922 2013