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Hydrologic Models in the Courtroom
Working PaperDividing the Waters Model
Assessment Committee
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Hydrologic Models in the Courtroom
Models: Their Uses, Development, & Assessment
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WORKING OUTLINE •The Model Building Process• Opinions of Model Builders•Criteria for Judging Adequacy of
Models•Case Examples of the Use of Models in
Complex Adversarial Proceedings •Judging/Assessing Models and Model
Based Expert Testimony
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FLOW
CHART
DATA COLLECTION
CONCEPTUAL MODEL
SUFFICIENT DATA?
MODEL CONSTRUCTION&
PARAMETER ESTIMATION
CALIBRATION & SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS
CODE SELECTION
ADEQUATE?
PREDICTIVE SIMULATIONS
N
YY
N
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Comments on Modeling
Bredehoeft and Konikow (1993):
• The very words calibrate and validate are misleading because they imply veracity.
• Any test of a model can only be used to invalidate it.
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Comments on ModelingOreskes (1994):• Verification, validation, and confirmation
really only apply to closed systems, a condition never met in models of natural systems.
• In natural systems parameters are incompletely known, variables are burdened with inferences and assumptions, and model results are always non-unique.
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Comments on Modeling
Woessner and Anderson (1996):• All models are uncertain.• Acceptability of a specific model is,
ultimately, a subjective assessment made in the context of the model’s stated purpose.
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ASTM MODEL DOCUMENTATION ELEMENTS
•MODEL FUNCTION•GENERAL SETTING•CONCEPTUAL MODEL•COMPUTER CODE DESCRIPTION•MODEL CONSTRUCTION •PREDICTIVE SIMULATION•SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS•REFERENCES
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DAUBERT CRITERIA• Have theories and techniques been
tested.• Have they have been subjected to peer
review and publication.• Do techniques employed have a known
error rate.• Are techniques subject to standards
governing their application.• Do the theories and techniques enjoy
widespread acceptance.
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CASE STUDIES
REPUBLICAN RIVER COMPACT CASE (RRCA MODEL)
ARKANSAS RIVER COMPACT CASE (HIM MODEL)
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Well Development in Republican
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Arkansas River
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Judging/Assessing Models and Model Based Expert
Testimony
ARE THERE ALTERNATIVES TO CROSS-EXAMINATION?