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HURRICANE IKE
STORM SURGE
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Storm Surge
• The Greatest Potential for loss of life in a hurricane.
• Historically, storm surge claims 9 of 10 victims in a hurricane.
• Over 1500 people lost their lives in Hurricane Katrina…mostly due to Storm Surge.
• Over 8000 people died in the 1900 Storm mainly due to the Storm Surge.
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DEFINITIONS:DEFINITIONS:
STORM SURGE
is the increase in water level due to a storm (hurricane / tropical storm / high
winds).
STORM TIDE
is the total water level, relative to a reference datum,
during a storm
= Astro Tide + STORM SURGE + Rainfall Runoff + Anomaly
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Saffir-Simpson Intensity Scale
Expresses hurricane in terms of wind speed and potential damage—Major Hurricanes CAT 3-5
Cat.Cat. Pressure Pressure WindsWinds SurgeSurge Bay SurgeBay Surge DamageDamage Storm ExamplesStorm Examples11 980 +980 + 74 74 -- 9595 4 4 -- 55 4 4 -- 77 MinimalMinimal Jerry 1989Jerry 1989
Claudette 2003Claudette 2003
22 965 965 –– 979979 96 96 -- 110110 6 6 –– 88 8 8 –– 1212 ModerateModerate Ike 2008Ike 2008
33 945 945 –– 964964 111 111 -- 130130 9 9 –– 1212 13 13 –– 1818 ExtensiveExtensive Alicia 1983Alicia 1983
Katrina 2005Katrina 2005
Rita 2005Rita 2005
44 920 920 –– 944944 131 131 -- 155155 13 13 –– 1818 19 19 –– 2424 ExtremeExtreme 1900 1900 -- GalvestonGalveston
Carla 1961Carla 1961
55 < 920< 920 > 156> 156 18 +18 + 24 +24 + CatastrophicCatastrophic Labor Day 1935Labor Day 1935
Camille 1969Camille 1969
Andrew 1992Andrew 1992
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GENERALIZATIONS:GENERALIZATIONS:
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GENERALIZATIONS:GENERALIZATIONS:
The higher the hurricane’s category, the higher the storm surge.
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GENERALIZATIONS:GENERALIZATIONS:
Maximum storm surge occurs to the right of the storm track, roughly
at the radius of max
winds.
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GENERALIZATIONS:GENERALIZATIONS:
Landfall direction affects storm surge height.
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GENERALIZATIONS:GENERALIZATIONS:
Faster‐moving hurricanes cause higher surges AT THE COASTLINE than do
slower‐moving hurricanes.
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GENERALIZATIONSGENERALIZATIONS:
For areas with gentle slopes of the continental shelf, storm surge is large but
waves are small.
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GENERALIZATIONS:GENERALIZATIONS:
Areas with deep water just offshore experience large waves, but little storm
surge.
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GENERALIZATIONS:GENERALIZATIONS:
Very small, compact hurricanes cause less storm surge than do large‐sized hurricanes. (Charlie, 2004)
Larger storms impact more coastline and produce larger storm surge.
(Katrina, 2005…Carla, 1961…Ike, 2008)
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• Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes
• A computerized numerical model developed by the National Weather Service (NWS) to estimate storm surge heights (and winds) resulting from historical, hypothetical, or predicted hurricanes.
Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/storm_surge.shtml
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• Accuracy - generally within ±20% of peak storm surge
• Accounts for astronomical tides
• Does not include rainfall amounts, river flow, or wind-driven waves
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• Determining the potential surge for a location
• Basis for “hazard analysis” portion of coastal hurricane evacuation plans
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• Simulation Studies to support evacuation planning. SLOSH
defines the “potential flooding”
by category
• Operational runs for a threatening hurricane
• (Experimental) Probabilistic storm surge forecasts
How does NWSuse SLOSH?
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Radar loop for Ike
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Real-time SLOSH Runs Start to Become Available
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Real-time runs exceeded Cat 3 MOM 10 mph High Tide
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Friday morning: Its too late!Friday morning: Its too late!
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Post‐Storm Run of SLOSH with Actual Track
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Jimmie WalkerJimmie Walker’’s Restaurants Restaurant
Clear Creek InnClear Creek Inn
The Chili BowlThe Chili Bowl
Dock AreaDock Area
Kemah Waterfront Area Before CarlaKemah Waterfront Area Before Carla
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Jimmie WalkerJimmie Walker’’s Restaurants Restaurant
Clear Creek InnClear Creek Inn
The Chili BowlThe Chili BowlDock AreaDock Area
Kemah Waterfront After CarlaKemah Waterfront After Carla
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Kemah Kemah ‐‐ 20072007
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Changes for 2009
• Modified Saffir‐Simpson Scale
• Probabilistic Storm Surge
• Issuance times of Watch and Warnings
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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
CATEGORY WIND SPEED DAMAGE HURRICANE(MPH) NAME
74-95 MINIMAL CLAUDETTE
96-110 MODERATE IKE
110-130 MAJOR ALICIA
131-155 EXTREME CARLA
> 155 CATASTROPHIC 1935 FL Keys CAMILLEANDREW
1
2
3
4
5
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ProbabilisticStorm Surge
P-Surge
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Issuance Times of Watch and Warnings
• Watch ‐
48 hours in advance
• Warning
‐ 36 hours in advance