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HunchWorks: Combining human expertise and big data
September 23rd, 2011
www.unglobalpulse.org@unglobalpulse#hunchworks
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Chris van der Walt,Project Lead, HunchWorks, Global Pulse@cvanderwalt
Dane Petersen,Experience Designer, Adaptive Path@thegreatsunra
Sara Farmer,Chief Platform Architect, Global Pulse@bodaceacat
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Harnessing innovation to protect the vulnerable
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Vulnerability:The risk of households falling in or remaining in poverty due to idiosyncratic or aggregate hazards.
Source: Professor Wim Naudé, United Nations University
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1.373 billion peopleliving on less than $1.25 per dayand billions more at risk of falling into extreme poverty
Source: The World Bank
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Information Gap
HUNGERAND POVERTY
1 YEAR 2 YEARS 3 YEARS 4 YEARS
EDUCATION
GENDEREQUALITY
CHILDMORTALITY
MATERNALHEALTH
HIV ANDMALARIA
Source: Millennium Development Goals Report 2011
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Ok, so now what?
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‣ millions of networked sensors are being embedded in the physical world in devices such as mobile phones and automobiles, sensing, creating, and communicating data
OPPORTUNITY 1:
Proliferation of sensors
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Source: McKinsey Global Institute (2011) Big data: The next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity
‣ 30 billion pieces of content shared on Facebook every month.‣ 40% projected growth in global data generated per year
vs 5% in global IT spending.‣ increasingly massive amount of information out there, problem is separating
signal from noise
OPPORTUNITY 2:
Big data
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‣ we can engage human beings all over the world and leverage their situational awareness, expertise and capacity.
OPPORTUNITY 3:
Social & collaboration technologies
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‣ human capacity to sift through data to detect and understand meaningful connections can be vastly magnified
‣ combine human understanding and computational reasoning capacity to take advantage of the strengths of both
OPPORTUNITY 4:
Assistive reasoning
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‣ 5 billion mobile phones‣ the international community has sta! on the ground in many developing
countries‣ the reach of the organization can be increased through engaging others outside
of the organization via social technologies‣ challenge is communication
OPPORTUNITY 5:
People
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Weak signals:Advanced, noisy and socially situated indicators of change in trends and systems that constitute raw informational material for enabling anticipatory action.
Wikipedia (2011) Future studies. Available at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_studies
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HunchWorks Overview
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‣ a hypothesis management system to detect weak signals
‣ both humans and data mining tools (wrapped as intelligent agents) can post ‘hunches’ about anomalous or interesting data and observations that might indicate that a social crisis is starting to unfold.
‣ a tool to engage and connect the global network of UN and international development field sta! with the greater institution to rapidly collect information about emerging situations
What is HunchWorks?17
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1. Detect an interesting “weak signal”
2. Hypothesize (make a hunch) about the nature of the signal
3. Share the hunch with the network
4. Hunch acts as an attractor for related signals and other evidence
5. Engage communities of practice to support rapid verification through the social graph
6. Use confirmed hunch as a basis for further action and to refine trust within the system
The hunch mechanism18
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HunchWorks: a use case
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Kissa: analyst
Kissa works in Pulse Lab, Uganda.
She notices an increase in population movements from Kenya and suspects that it is in response to the unfolding drought in the Horn of Africa but lacks concrete evidence.
She decides to post to HunchWorks to gather further evidence.
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Resolving a hunch33
Once Kissa has determined that enough credible evidence is amassed, she may opt to change the status of the hunch to reflect the hunch being:
• proven
• disproven
• closed
We are also considering allowing contributors to vote on hunches where the hunch owner allows it or for whatever reason is no
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Designing the HunchWorks Experience
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People are complicated.
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Saving the world is complicated.
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Trying to save the world with people?
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photo credit: flickr.com/photos/johnmcnab/4248698746
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photo credit: flickr.com/photos/johnmcnab/4248698746
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7 billion people.
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7 billion people.5 billion mobile phones.
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People are more than tailpipes.
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People are more than tailpipes.7 billion HunchWorks users?
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From 7 billion to 2,000.
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HunchWorks Users
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How?
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How?
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How?Why?
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Tools alone will not be enoughto sustain HunchWorks.
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Tools alone will not be enoughto sustain HunchWorks.
We must build a strong community around these tools.
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Leverage existing connections…
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Leverage existing connections…and suggest new ones.
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Connections depend on trust.
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A picture of a hunch.
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A picture of a hunch.
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A hunch is the discussion surrounding it.
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HunchWorks is an action engine.
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HunchWorks is an action engine.
“Is this hunch true enough todo something about it?”
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Making that action happen.
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Open Source and the UN
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Open Source and the UN
Code Jams
Blue HacksOpen Innovation
Git Repositories
Hackathons
Licensing Models
Facilitation
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Integration
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Algorithms‣ Similarity and complementarity metrics
‣ Relevance
‣ Credibility
‣ Hunch splitting, merging and clustering
‣ Mixing human insight with big data results
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System Issues‣ Security
‣ Localisation
‣ Federation
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Federation
?
HUNCHWORKS
DATA FEED
DATA SITES(OPEN DATA,
MAPS, GAZETTEERS ETC)
?
HUNCHWORKS
?
HUNCHWORKS
?
HUNCHWORKS
?
HUNCHWORKS
?
HUNCHWORKS
Intermittent connection
No connection/sneakerware
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Timeline
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Roadmap‣ to November 2011 (prototype delivery)
Hunchworks is in the Proof of Concept stage.
‣ From November 2011 til January 2012 (first release)Hunchworks is in seed stage (early development), looking for angel-style funding through UN Foundation.
‣ From Feb 2012 till Jan 2013 (first full-featured release)HunchWorks is in early stage development
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We need your help!‣ Funding
‣ Beta Communities
‣ Development partners
‣ Did I mention funding...?
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Thank you
Chris van der Walt@cvanderwalt
Dane Petersen@thegreatsunra
Sara Farmer@bodaceacat
www.unglobalpulse.org@[email protected]