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Human Population
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SOME ALARMING STATISTICS
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• Late 1600’s – ½ billion people• 1830 – 1 billion• 1930 – 2 billion• Since 1975 – world’s population has added 1
billion ever 12 years• Greatest growth occurring in developing
countries• By 2050 – 10.5 billion
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Causes of “explosion”
• Technology• Improved sanitation• Better medical care• Increased agricultural output• These and others led to a decrease in death
rates, primarily infant death rates
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Environmental Impacts
• Cornucopian view – resource depletion is not a problem if new resources can be found to replace
• Not all resources are replaceable• Even if it could, could we maintain the quality
of life we desire?
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Environmental Impacts
• IPAT Model represents how human impact (I) results from interaction among three factors:
• Three factors: population, affluence, technology
I = P x A x T• Impact can be boiled down to pollution and/or
resource depletion
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DEMOGRAPHY
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Demography
• The science of human population• Principles of population ecology apply to
humans• Humans have a carrying capacity set by
environmental limitations• Estimates: 1-2 billion living prosperously to 33
billion living in poverty
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Demography
• Uneven distribution means certain areas bear more burden
• Areas of low population density are often vulnerable to impact (sensitive environment that cannot support many people)
• Age structure diagrams show relative sizes of each age group in a population; used to predict future population dynamics
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Demography
• Population growth depends on rates of birth, death, immigration, and emigration= (birth + immigration) – (death + emigration)• Immigration and emigration play a large role
today• Since 1970 growth rates in many countries
have been declining
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Demography
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR): average number of children born per female during her lifetime
• Replacement fertility is the TFR that keeps the size of a population stable; for humans it is 2.1
• A lower infant mortality rate has reduced people’s tendency to conceive many children to ensure some survive
• Natural rate of population change is change due to birth and death rates alone
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Demography
• Many nations experience a change called demographic transition
• This is a model of economic and cultural change that explains the trends in declining birth and death rates as nations industrialize
• Four stages: pre-industrial, transitional, industrial, post-industrial
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Demography
• Despite technological advances, earth does not have enough resources for existing and future generations to maintain standard of living equal to developed countries
• Is the demographic transition universal?
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POPULATION AND SOCIETY
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Civil Rights for Women
• In societies in which women are freer to make reproductive decisions, fertility rates have declined
• Children are better cared for, healthier, and better educated
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Population Policies
• Thailand – relied on education-based approach to family planning
• India – 1st country to implement population control measures. Strident policies in the 1970’s. Now focus on education, family planning
• Brazil, Mexico, Iran, Cuba et al, have instituted programs with reduction targets, incentives, education, contraception and reproductive health care
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Population Policies
• UN in 1994 – Cairo conference on population & development. 179 nations endorsed all gov’ts to offer repro health care w/in 20 years
• US has often declined to fund family-planning efforts by the UN
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Other Factors & Influences
• Poverty is strongly correlated with pop growth• Consumption from affluence creates huge
impact on environment• 1999 – the richest 20% of people used 86% of
world’s resources• HIV/AIDS leads to premature deaths, reducing
life expectancy in African nations• AIDS is undermining ability of developing
countries to make transition modern tech