How Early Is Early?Early Initiation of Risk Behaviors among Inner City Adolescents and Its Impact on
Later Behavioral Trajectories
John M. Bolland
Bradley E. Lian
Support
1. NICHD (HD 30060)
2. CSAT/SAMHSA (TI 13340)
3. NIDA (DA 017428)
4. CDC (CE 000191)
5. Mobile, Alabama Housing Board
6. City of Mobile, Alabama
7. City of Prichard, Alabama
Mobile Youth Survey
– Begun in 1998; 11 waves of data– Low income, African American neighborhoods
• 1990 poverty rate = 73%• 1990 median household income = $5,190
– Multiple cohort, longitudinal study of adolescent risk
– Adolescents aged 9.75 - 18.25
MYS Data1998-2005
N = 7,085
18,360 total interviews
1,774 – 2,635 annual interviews
1,187 respondents with 5+ waves of data
Response rate = .73 - .78
Followup rate = .82
The Mobile Youth Survey: Findings
Prevalence × Age
Risk Behavior Relative Risk Age Period Data
Alcohol consumption 1.54 - 2.00 12-14 lifetime Add HealthAlcohol consumption .85 16-18 30 days YRBSMarijuana use 2.11 - 2.81 12-14 lifetime Add HealthMarijuana use 1.01 16-18 30 days YRBSSexual intercourse 2.24 - 3.27 12-14 lifetime Add HealthSexual intercourse 1.25 16-18 30 days YRBS
The Mobile Youth Survey: Findings
Prevalence × Age
Risk Behavior Relative Risk Age Period Data
Alcohol consumption 1.54 - 2.00 12-14 lifetime Add HealthAlcohol consumption .85 16-18 30 days YRBSMarijuana use 2.11 - 2.81 12-14 lifetime Add HealthMarijuana use 1.01 16-18 30 days YRBSSexual intercourse 2.24 - 3.27 12-14 lifetime Add HealthSexual intercourse 1.25 16-18 30 days YRBS
Weapon carrying 1.39 16-18 30 days YRBSGun carrying 1.86 16-18 30 days YRBSPulling a weapon 5.32 - 6.95 12-18 lifetime Add HealthWeapon use 12.80 - 23.66 12-18 lifetime Add Health
MYS Data: Developmental and Behavioral Trajectories
Yij = [β00 + β10ageij] + [μ0j + μ1jageij + rij]
Where μ0j ≈ N(0, τ), rij ≈ N(0, σ2)
MYS Data: Developmental and Behavioral Trajectories
Yij = [β00 + β10ageij] + [μ0j + μ1jageij + rij]
Yij = [β00 + β10ageij + β01icij + β11(icij × ageij)] + [μ0j + μ1jageij + rij]
Where μ0j ≈ N(0, τ), rij ≈ N(0, σ2)
Alcohol Use
b se
Intercept 1.38 .03
Age (lin) .26 .01
Age (quad) .01 .003
Gender -.13 .04
Age (lin) × Gender -.13 .01
Age (quad) × Gender -.03 .004
Alcohol Use: Frequency and Recency
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Age
Alc
oh
ol
Us
e
male female
Household Instability:Mother
Mother Figure
Birth Mother 67.0% - 74.7%
Grandmother 12.0% - 16.4%
No One 1.4% - 3.2%
Annual Change 25.0% – 34.8%
Household Instability:Father
Father Figure Biological Father 44.8% - 47.7%
Stepfather 14.4% - 16.4% Grandfather 6.7% - 8.5%
No One 10.9% - 13.6%
Annual Change 43.9% – 49.8%
Alcohol Use
b se
No father figure (NFF) .27 .16
Early initiation (EI) .38 .10
Age (lin) × NFF .36 .13
Age (quad) × NFF .08 .03
Age (lin) × EI .21 .06
Age (quad) × EI .13 .02
Age (lin) × NFF × EI -.51 .19
Age (quad) × NFF × EI -.17 .05
Alcohol Use: Frequency and Recency
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
12 13 14 15 16
Age
Alc
oh
ol
Us
e
father - no early initiation father - early initiationno father - no early initiation no father - early initiation
Alcohol Use
b se b se
No father figure (NFF) .27 .16 .29 .17
Early initiation (EI) .38 .10 .38 .10
Age (lin) × NFF .36 .13 .37 .13
Age (quad) × NFF .08 .03 .07 .03
Age (lin) × EI .21 .06 .20 .07
Age (quad) × EI .13 .02 .13 .02
Age (lin) × NFF × EI -.51 .19 -.52 .19
Age (quad) × NFF × EI -.17 .05 -.17 .05
NFF* .10 .07
Alcohol Use
b se
Biological father (BFF) -.27 .09
Early initiation (EI) .43 .10
Age (lin) × BFF -.03 .07
Age (quad) × BFF .01 .02
Age (lin) × EI .01 .06
Age (quad) × EI .07 .02
Age (lin) × BFF × EI .31 .11
Age (quad) × BFF × EI .08 .03
Alcohol Use: Frequency and Recency
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
12 13 14 15 16
Age
Alc
oh
ol
Us
e
non-biological father - no early initiation non-biological father - early initiationbiological father - no early initiation biological father - early initiation
Alcohol Use
b se
Biological father (BFF) -.27 .09 -.14 .10
Early initiation (EI) .43 .10 .32 .10
Age (lin) × BFF -.03 .07 -.04 .08
Age (quad) × BFF .01 .02 .005 .02
Age (lin) × EI .01 .06 .04 .10
Age (quad) × EI .07 .02 .10 .03
Age (lin) × BFF × EI .31 .11 .16 .12
Age (quad) × BFF × EI .08 .03 .03 .03
BFF* -.11 .05
Marijuana Use
b se
Intercept 1.13 .03
Age (lin) .30 .01
Age (quad) .02 .002
Gender -.30 .04
Age (lin) × Gender -.14 .01
Age (quad) × Gender -.02 .003
Marijuana Use: Frequency and Recency
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Age
Ma
riju
an
a U
se
male female
Marijuana Use
b se
No father figure (NFF) .13 .18
Early initiation (EI) .43 .14
Age (lin) × NFF .24 .11
Age (quad) × NFF .06 .03
Age (lin) × EI .20 .08
Age (quad) × EI .05 .02
Age (lin) × NFF × EI -.17 .29
Age (quad) × NFF × EI -.04 .08
Marijuana Use: Frequency and Recency
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
12 13 14 15 16
Age
Mar
iju
ana
Use
father - no early initiation father - early initiationno father - no early initiation no father - early initiation
Marijuana Use
b se b seNo father figure (NFF) .13 .18 .15 .18
Early initiation (EI) .43 .14 .44 .14Age (lin) × NFF .24 .11 .23 .12Age (quad) × NFF .06 .03 .05 .03Age (lin) × EI .20 .08 .20 .08Age (quad) × EI .05 .02 .05 .02Age (lin) × NFF × EI -.17 .29 -.04 .30Age (quad) × NFF × EI -.04 .08 -.004 .08NFF* .13 .06
Marijuana Use
b se
Biological father (BFF) -.17 .10
Early initiation (EI) .43 .13
Age (lin) × BFF .04 .06
Age (quad) × BFF .02 .01
Age (lin) × EI .29 .11
Age (quad) × EI .07 .03
Age (lin) × BFF × EI -.19 .13
Age (quad) × BFF × EI -.05 .04
Marijuana Use: Frequency and Recency
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
12 13 14 15 16
Age
Ma
riju
an
a U
se
non-biological father - no early initiation non-biological father - early initiationbiological father - no early initiation biological father - early initiation
Marijuana Use
b se b seBiological father (BFF) -.17 .10 -.12 .10Early initiation (EI) .43 .13 .41 .14Age (lin) × BFF .04 .06 .03 .07Age (quad) × BFF .02 .01 .02 .02Age (lin) × EI .29 .11 .46 .12Age (quad) × EI .07 .03 .12 .03
Age (lin) × BFF × EI -.19 .13 -.28 .14Age (quad) × BFF × EI -.05 .04 -.08 .04BFF* -.11 .04
Marijuana Use: Frequency and Recency
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
12 13 14 15 16
Age
Ma
riju
an
a U
se
non-biological father - no early initiation non-biological father - early initiationbiological father - no early initiation biological father - early initiation
Fighting
b se
Intercept 2.02 .03
Age (lin) -.07 .01
Age (quad) .003 .002
Gender -.41 .04
Age (lin) × Gender -.007 .01
Age (quad) × Gender -.01 .004
Fighting: Frequency and Recency
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Age
Fig
hti
ng
male female
Fighting: Frequency and Recency
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
12 13 14 15 16
Age
Fig
hti
ng
father - no early initiation father - early initiationno father - no early initiation no father - early initiation
Fighting: Frequency and Recency
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
12 13 14 15 16
Age
Fig
hti
ng
non-biological father - no early initiation non-biological father - early initiationbiological father - no early initiation biological father - early initiation
Weapon Carrying
b se
Intercept 1.87 .04
Age (lin) .15 .01
Age (quad) -.01 .004
Gender -.46 .06
Age (lin) × Gender -.05 .02
Age (quad) × Gender -.02 .01
Weapon Carrying: Frequency and Recency
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Age
We
ap
on
Ca
rry
ing
male female
Weapon Carrying
b se
No father figure (NFF) .64 .25
Early initiation (EI) .55 .15
Age (lin) × NFF .002 .20
Age (quad) × NFF -.04 .05
Age (lin) × EI .34 .10
Age (quad) × EI .22 .03
Age (lin) × NFF × EI .76 .31
Age (quad) × NFF × EI .18 .09
Carrying a Weapon: Frequency and Recency
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
5
12 13 14 15 16
Age
Ca
rry
ing
a W
ea
po
n
father - no early initiation father - early initiationno father - no early initiation no father - early initiation
Weapon Carrying
b se
Biological father (BFF) -.22 .14
Early initiation (EA) .57 .14
Age (lin) × BFF .10 .12
Age (quad) × BFF .04 .03
Age (lin) × EA .63 .14
Age (quad) × EA .32 .04
Age (lin) × BFF × EA -.40 .31
Age (quad) × BFF × EA -.14 .05
Carrying a Weapon: Frequency and Recency
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
12 13 14 15 16
Age
Ca
rry
ing
a W
ea
po
n
non-biological father - no early initiation non-biological father - early initiationbiological father - no early initiation biological father - early initiation
Weapon Brandishment
b se
Intercept .58 .02
Age (lin) .08 .01
Gender -.14 .03
Age (lin) × Gender -.02 .01
Weapon Brandishment: Frequency and Recency
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Age
We
ap
on
Bra
nd
ish
me
nt
male female
Weapon Brandishment
b se
No father figure (NFF) .21 .13
Early initiation (EI) .30 .09
Age (lin) × NFF .05 .09
Age (quad) × NFF -.00 .02
Age (lin) × EI .18 .06
Age (quad) × EI .11 .02
Age (lin) × NFF × EI .57 .21
Age (quad) × NFF × EI .11 .06
Brandishing a Weapon: Frequency and Recency
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
12 13 14 15 16
Age
Bra
nd
ish
ing
a W
ea
po
n
father - no early initiation father - early initiationno father - no early initiation no father - early initiation
Weapon Carrying
b se
Biological father (BFF) -.06 .07
Early initiation (EI) .34 .09
Age (lin) × BFF .05 .05
Age (quad) × BFF .02 .01
Age (lin) × EI .18 .09
Age (quad) × EI .11 .02
Age (lin) × BFF × EI .04 .10
Age (quad) × BFF × EI .002 .03
Brandishing a Weapon: Frequency and Recency
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
12 13 14 15 16
Age
Bra
nd
ish
ing
a W
ea
po
n
non-biological father - no early initiation non-biological father - early initiationbiological father - no early initiation biological father - early initiation
Weapon Use
b se
Intercept .36 .01
Age (lin) .05 .004
Age (quad) -.00 .001
Gender -.15 .02
Age (lin) × Gender -.04 .01
Age (quad) × Gender -.003 .001
Weapon Use: Frequency and Recency
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Age
We
ap
on
Us
e
male female
Weapon Use
b se
No father figure (NFF) .06 .07
Early initiation (EI) .17 .05
Age (lin) × NFF .07 .04
Age (quad) × NFF .01 .01
Age (lin) × EI .22 .03
Age (quad) × EI .10 .01
Age (lin) × NFF × EI -.04 .15
Age (quad) × NFF × EI -.02 .04
Using a Weapon: Frequency and Recency
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
12 13 14 15 16
Age
Us
ing
a W
ea
po
n
father - no early initiation father - early initiationno father - no early initiation no father - early initiation
Weapon Use
b se
Biological father (BFF) -.03 .04
Early initiation (EI) .22 .05
Age (lin) × BFF -.01 .03
Age (quad) × BFF .00 .01
Age (lin) × EI .30 .05
Age (quad) × EI .14 .02
Age (lin) × BFF × EI -.15 .06
Age (quad) × BFF × EI -.06 .02
Using a Weapon: Frequency and Recency
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
12 13 14 15 16
Age
Us
ing
a W
ea
po
n
non-biological father - no early initiation non-biological father - early initiationbiological father - no early initiation biological father - early initiation
The Challenges of Conditional Growth Curve Modeling
2,724 MYS respondents who were
• 9,10, or 11 at time of first observation; and
• indicated whether they had used alcohol
334 interviewed when they were 16
• 193 father figure + no early use
• 108 father figure + early use
• 22 no father figure + no early use
• 11 no father figure + early use