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NebojNebojšša Nakia NakiććenovienoviććInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xxxx
Technische UniversitTechnische Universitäät Wient Wien [email protected]@iiasa.ac.at
How Can Global GHG Emissions Peak How Can Global GHG Emissions Peak in the Next 10 to 15 Years?in the Next 10 to 15 Years?
International Conference, International Conference, AbgeordnetenhausAbgeordnetenhaus BerlinBerlin –– 23 November 200723 November 2007
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)
The main finding from the comparison of SRES and new scenarios in the literature is that (high agreement, much evidence):● The ranges of main driving forces and emissions
have not changed very much● Population scenarios from major demographic
institutions are lower than they were at the time of TAR
● Regional medium-term (2030) economic projections for some developing country regions are currently lower than the highest scenarios used in TAR.
● The most noticeable changes are lower projections of SOx and NOx emissions.
2
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Global Mean Temperature ChangeSix illustrative SRES scenarios, full range
Baseline Uncertainty:Baseline Uncertainty:50% climate sensitivity50% climate sensitivity25% population & GDP25% population & GDP25% technology25% technology
Uncertainty on extent and Uncertainty on extent and success of climate policiessuccess of climate policies
s
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)4
Global CO2 EmissionsGlobal CO2 Emissions
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)5
Global CO2 EmissionsGlobal CO2 Emissions
6 Categories6 Categories
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)
LongLong--Term Stabilization ProfilesTerm Stabilization Profiles
~$100/tCO~$100/tCO22
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)
LongLong--term mitigation: stabilisation and term mitigation: stabilisation and equilibrium global mean temperaturesequilibrium global mean temperatures
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)
LongLong--term mitigation: stabilisation and term mitigation: stabilisation and equilibrium global mean temperaturesequilibrium global mean temperatures
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)
Emissions PeakEmissions Peak
11
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)
Below 2000Below 2000
12
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Energy conservation &efficiency
Fossil fuel switch
Renewables
Nuclear
CCS
Forest sinks andavoided deforestation
Non-CO2
Cumulative emissions reductions (2000-2030), GtCO20 500 1000 1500 2000
Cumulative emissions reductions (2000-2100), GtCO2
2000 - 2030 2000 - 2100
120
Emissions reductions for 650 ppm
Additional reductions for 490-540 ppm
IPAC
AIM
MESSAGE
IMAGE
N/A
efficiency
f
Forest sinks and
Cumulative Emissions ReductionsMitigation measures, 4 IAMs and 2 stabilization levels
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)
GDP LossGDP Loss
14
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)
GDP LossGDP Loss
15
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)
Carbon PriceCarbon Price
16
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)
Carbon PriceCarbon Price
17
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)18
Carbon PriceCarbon Price
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)
Total reduction potential
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
TD: 2030-Low TD: 2030-High
Tota
l GH
G re
duct
ion
pote
ntia
l (G
tCO
2-eq
)
$20/tCO2$50/tCO2$100/tCO2
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)
Global Mitigation Challenges• Significant mitigation potential by 2030 and
beyond at costs <$100/tCO2
• Technological change essential for reducing mitigation costs and increasing potentials
• “Upfront” investments reduce longer-term mitigation costs and increase potentials
• High emissions baselines have higher mitigation costs and higher stabilization levels.
• Investment in RD&D and diffusion reduce mitigation costs
After: Thomas Johansson, 2005After: Thomas Johansson, 2005
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2121 20072007
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
0 0.1 1 10 100 1,000Cumulative expenditures, billion (1985) Yen
PV
cos
ts (1
985)
Yen
per
W
1973: 30,000
y = 104.0 –0.54x
R2 = 0.989
1995: 640
Applied R&D InvestmentBasic R&D
1976: 16,300
1980: 4,900
1985: 1,200
Data source:Watanabe, 1995 &1997
Japan Japan -- PV Costs vs. ExpendituresPV Costs vs. Expenditures
GrGrüübler, 2002bler, 2002
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
0 0.1 1 10 100 1,000Cumulative expenditures, billion (1985) Yen
PV
cos
ts (1
985)
Yen
per
W
1973: 30,000
y = 104.0 –0.54x
R2 = 0.989
1995: 640
Applied R&D InvestmentBasic R&D
1976: 16,300
1980: 4,900
1985: 1,200
Data Source: Watanabe, 1997 ~ $1 109
Cost reduction~ $100 109
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2222 20072007
0
200
400600
800
1000
1200
14001600
1800
2000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
EJ
RenewablesNuclearGasOilCoal
Global Primary Energy Global Primary Energy –– A2rA2r
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2323 20072007
0
200
400600
800
1000
1200
14001600
1800
2000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
EJ
RenewablesNuclearGasOilCoal
Global Primary Energy Global Primary Energy –– B1B1
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)
Surface Temperature ChangeAOGCM projections for illustrative SRES scenarios
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2525 20072007
Climate Mitigation vs Total Energy Investments(World, 2000-2030)
Climate mitigation investments
Total investments “Upfront”Investments
0
5
10
15
20
25
Trill
ion
US$
2000
A2 B1 A2 B1 25
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2626 20072007
Total Energy-related Investments(World, short & long-term)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Trill
ion
US$
2000
A2 B1 A2 B1
2000-21002000-2030
Long-termInvestment
Savings(~40 trillion)
“Upfront” Investments(~2 trillion)
26
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400
450
500
550
600
650
700
4006008001000120014001600
CO2-equivalent concentration in 2100, ppmv
Cum
ulat
ive
Sys
tem
Cos
ts (t
rilli
on$)
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Cum
ulat
ive
Emis
sion
s (G
tCeq
.)
Emissions and Costs2000-2100
Emissions
Costs
A2r B1
27
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Existing and Planned ProjectsExisting and Planned ProjectsSleipner Project, saline formation, North SeaWeyburn, EOR, Saskatchewan, CanadaIn Salah, gas reservoir, Algeria (development)Snohvit, off-shore saline formation, North SeaGorgon, saline formation, Australia (planning)
Nakicenovic #30 Source: Sally Benson, 2003
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##3131 20072007http://www.nrel.gov/data/pix/Jpegs/06442.jpghttp://www.nrel.gov/data/pix/Jpegs/06442.jpg
UsinaUsina Santa Elisa mill in Santa Elisa mill in SertaozinhoSertaozinho, Brazil, Brazil
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##3232 20072007Source: Source: www.fuelwww.fuel--efficientefficient--vehicles.orgvehicles.org
Tesla Electric RoadsterTesla Electric Roadster
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##3333 20072007
Toyota Toyota PriusPrius MethaneMethane
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##3434 20072007
Honda Honda PuyoPuyo FuellFuell CellCell
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##3535 20072007
CITARO HCITARO H22 Fuel Cell BusFuel Cell Bus
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##3636 20072007
Source: Source: TupolevTupolev
Hydrogen Airplane DesignHydrogen Airplane Design
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##3737 20072007Source: EPRISource: EPRI
Energy SuperGrid and Energy SuperGrid and MagLevMagLev TrainsTrains
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NakicenovicNakicenovic ##3838 20072007
A Vision of a Future Energy SystemA Vision of a Future Energy System
Source: EU, 2002Source: EU, 2002