Lini Wollenberg, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
How can agriculture help achieve the 2°C target?
16 November 2016 Global Landscape Forum
Session on Unexplained Big Wins for Climate Change through Landscape Restoration
119 countries included mitigation in agriculture or economy-wide goals in Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
73% are developing countries
How much
mitigation is
needed in
agriculture to
stay below 2°C
in 2100?
Calculating emissions for a 2°C world
2030 emissions reflect assumptions of each pathway
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6
• RCP2.6 represents 2.6 watts/m2 radiative forcing in 2100, ~450 ppm CO2e• Limits warming to 0.3 to 1.7 °C during 2081 - 2100• Represents non CO2 gases
only• Agriculture will need to limit
GHG emissions to 6-8 GtCO2e (out of all-sector total of 26 GtCO2e) by 2030
Series1
0 0.5 1 1.5
0.92
1.19
1.23
Mitigation (GtCO2e/yr)
RCP2.6 (IMAGE) (2)
GCAM2.6 (3)
MESSAGE2.5 (4)
1 GtCO2e/yr mitigation to
stay within 2° CBy 2030
(11-18% reduction)
T
Livestock productivity, feed
Efficient N fertilizer
use
How much can known mitigation practices contribute to the 2 °C goal?
Water saving in
paddy rice
Used mitigation practices compatible with food production:
• Cropland and paddy rice management
• Grazing lands• Livestock • Agroforestry soils
Not• Rewetting peatlands• Cropland set aside
Soil carbon and agroforestry – not included as not compatible with RCPs
IPCC AR5 Table 11.2
Calculated mitigation with global data sets
1. Bottom-up technology-by-technology estimates • Smith 2007, 2008, University of Aberdeen,
IPCC • US $20 tons of CO2
1. Production efficiency gains using integrated assessment modeling (trade and location, production system) • Havlík 2014, IIASA • US $20 tons of CO2
Contributions of mitigation scenarios compared to the 2°C mitigation goal for agriculture
Series1
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
0.21
0.40
0.92
1.19
1.23
Mitigation (GtCO2e/yr)
RCP2.6 (IMAGE) (2)
GCAM2.6 (3)
MESSAGE2.5 (4)
Technical practices USD20/t (8)
Efficiency practices USD20/t (9)
1 GtCO2e/yr mitigation to stay within
2° C
Plausible interventions will achieve only 21-40% of mitigation needed in agriculture by 2030
10SAI - GRA
Livestock supply chains
Decrease food waste
Shift dietary patterns
Avoided deforestation by agriculture
Soil carbon
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
1.77
2.00
1.37
4.31
1.20
0.76
0.31
1.71
Mitigation (GtCO2e/yr)
Achieving the 2 °C target
1. Aspirational goal of 1 Gt by 2030 is a policy driven and science-based target.
2. Not mitigating in agriculture will increase the cost of mitigation in other sectors or reduce the feasibility of meeting the 2°C goal.
3. We need to radically expand technical and policy options for bigger impacts, e.g. reduced methane cows or rice, increasing and stabilizing carbon sequestration in soil and biomass, value chains.
• M. Richards• P. Smith• P. Havlík• M. Obersteiner• F.N. Tubiello• M. Herold• P. Gerber • S. Carter • A. Reisinger• D. van Vuuren• A. Dickie• H. Neufeldt
• B.O. Sander• R. Wassmann• R. Sommer• J.E. Amonette• A. Falcucci• M. Herrero • C. Opio • R. Roman-Cuesta • E. Stehfest • H. Westhoek • I. Ortiz-Monasterio• T. Sapkota
• M.C. Rufino • P.K. Thornton • L. Verchot • P.C. West • J.-F. Soussana • T. Baedeker • M. Sadler• S.Vermeulen• B.M. Campbell
Thanks to co-Authors