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Housing and Employment in the Washington MSA
Current Trends and Forecasts
January 30, 2014
Jeannette Chapman, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Lisa Sturtevant, PhD, NHC Center for Housing Policy
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Total SalesWashington MSA
All Property Types
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
SFDSFACondo
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Total Sales Volume (millions of $)Washington MSA
All Property Types
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
SFDSFACondo
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Median Sale PriceWashington MSA
All Housing Types
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
DC
NoVa
MSA
SubMD
Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Total SalesDistrict of Columbia
All Property Types
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
SFDSFACondo
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Total SalesSuburban Maryland
All Property Types
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
SFDSFACondo
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Total SalesNorthern Virginia
All Property Types
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
SFDSFACondo
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Average Sale PriceWashington MSA
Single-Family Detached Homes
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
DCNoVaMSASubMD
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Average Sale PriceWashington MSA
Single-Family Attached Homes
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
DCMSANoVaSubMD
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Average Sale PriceWashington MSA
Condo Homes
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
DCMSASubMDNoVa
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Year-End Average New Condominium Prices Per SF
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
NoVa, Inside Beltway
District
SubMD, Inside Beltway
SubMD, Outside Beltway
NoVa, Outside Beltway
Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Active ListingsWashington MSA
All Housing Types
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
200820092010201120122013
Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Stabilized Vacancy RatesClass A High-Rise
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%DC
Bethesda
Rosslyn-Ballston Cor-ridor
Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Stabilized Vacancy RatesClass A High-Rise
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%Crystal City/ Pen-tagon City
North Bethesda/ Rockville
Alexandria
Silver Spring/ Wheaton
Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Effective Rental Rates per SF Class A High-Rise
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
DC
Bethesda
Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor
Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Effective Rental Rates per SF Class A High-Rise
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
Crystal City/ Pen-tagon City
Silver Spring/ Wheaton
Alexandria
North Bethesda/ Rockville
Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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The Washington Economy
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Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA, 2002-2013
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2002
2005
2008
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Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSA, 2002-2013
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2002
2005
2008
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Nov 2008 to Nov 2009
Nov 2009 to Nov 2010
Nov 2010 to Nov 2011
Nov 2011 to Nov 2012
Nov 2012 to Nov 2013
-50
-25
0
25
50
(4.7)8.8 14.5 6.6
(0.2)
(40.1)
33.4 36.9 36.5
24.1
Professional & Business Services All Other Sectors
Annual Change in EmploymentWashington MSA
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Federal GovernmentWashington MSA, 2002-2013
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2002
2005
2008
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Washington Metropolitan Area Job Change by Wage Category between 2008 to 2013
Lower Wage
Mid-Wage
Higher-Wage
(50,000) 0 50,000 100,000
2008-2009 2010-2013
Sources: EMSI 2013.3 & GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area
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Employment Change in the WMSAby Sub-State Area (000s)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
D.C. 14.1 5.6 1.9 9.7 11.3 9.3 6.5 4.6
Sub. MD 4.4 4.8 20.7 18.1 22.7 20.0 14.3 12.2
No. VA 26.4 23.5 14.6 32.2 31.8 36.8 35.0 30.3
REGION 42.6 32.2 37.5 60.2 66.1 66.4 56.2 47.5
Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000
Source: BLS, IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional AnalysisNOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV.
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Employment Change by Sub-state Area,
2012 – 2032Net New
Jobs % Change
D.C. 148,500 19.8%
Sub. MD 254,800 26.4%
No. VA 448,700 32.5%
REGION* 857,300 27.6%
*Includes Jefferson, WVNote: Assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work Numbers may not add up due to rounding
Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.
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Principal Sources of JobGrowth in the Washington Area, 2012-2032
(000s) Job % of Total Median
Change Job Change Wage*
Prof. & Sci. Svs/Mgt 401.8 46.9% $81,500
Admin & Waste Svs 139.0 16.2 29,500
Construction 95.0 11.1 36,700
Health Services 71.2 8.3 39,500
Leisure/Hospitality 45.9 5.4 18,300
Sub-Total 753.1 87.8%
Overall Total 857.3 100.0 $48,900
* in 2011$s
Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.
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DC SubMD NoVa0
100
200
300
400
500
64
120162
15
48
42
69
58
204
29 41
$75K +
$50 - 74.9K
$25 - 49.9K
< $25K
Net New Jobs By Median Wage,2012 – 2032
Includes Part Time JobsJobs In 000s Median Wage
Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.
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Housing Demand by Sub-state Area, 2012 – 2032
By Work Location
By Current Commute Patterns
D.C. 105,200 41,800
Sub. MD 160,800 184,800
No. VA 279,000 261,500
Outside Region 0 56,600
REGION* 548,300 548,300
*Includes Jefferson, WV.Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.
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Demand by Housing Type and Sub-state Region,
2012-2032
Total Single-Family
Multi-Family
D.C. 105,200 38,000 67,200
Sub. MD 160,800 106,600 54,200
No. VA 279,000 197,600 81,400
REGION* 548,300 344,600 203,700
*Includes Jefferson, WVNote: Assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work Numbers may not add up due to rounding
Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.
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Current Housing Stock Future Demand, 2012-2022
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
25% 31%
6%6%5%7%
15%15%5%
6%
43%35% SFD Owner
SFD Renter
SFA Owner
SFA Renter
MF Owner
MF Renter
Comparison of Current Stock & Demand by Housing Type, Washington MSA
Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.
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$200k-
399k37%
$400k-
599k34%
Demand for New Units by Price Washington MSA, 2012-2032
$1,250-1,74939%
$1,750-2,24915%
<$1,250 44%
$2,250+, 2%
Owner Households Renter Households
Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.
$600k+13%
<$200k16%
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$200k-
399k46%
$400k-
599k31%
Demand for New Units by Price District of Columbia, 2012-2032
$1,250-1,74938%
$1,750-2,24916%
<$1,250 43%
$2,250+, 3%
Owner Households Renter Households
Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.
$600k+8% <$200k
14%
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$200k-399
k40%
$400k-599
k27%
Demand for New Units by Price Suburban Maryland, 2012-2032
$1,250-1,74937%
$1,750-2,24911%
<$1,250 51%
$2,250+, 1%
Owner Households Renter Households
Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.
$600k+11% <$200k
22%
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$200k-
399k33%
$400k-
599k38%
Demand for New Units by Price Northern Virginia, 2012-2032
$1,250-1,74941%
$1,750-2,24917%
<$1,250 40%
$2,250+, 3%
Owner Households Renter Households
Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.
$600k+16%
<$200k14%
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• Local jurisdictions are planning for an insufficient amount of housing to accommodate future workers.
• More housing is needed closer to jobs, in existing and growing regional employment centers.
• There is a need for more multi-family housing and smaller, more affordable owner and renter homes in the region.
• A lack of a sufficient supply of housing contributes to worsening traffic and quality of life and threatens our region’s economic vitality.
Housing Policy Issues
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Questions?
Jeannette Chapman GMU Center for Regional Analysis
[email protected], 703-993-2274
Lisa Sturtevant, PhDNHC Center for Housing Policy
[email protected], 202-466-2121 ext. 234