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House Price And Rent Developments In Istanbul : 1988-‐2012
Dr. AHMET BÜYÜKDUMAN Istanbul Real Estate Valua;on and Consultancy Co.-‐ President
26. JUNE. 2015
ERES 2015
ISTANBUL
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HOUSE PRICE INDICES
US Real House Price Indices (1890-‐2010)
UK Real House Price Indices (1900-‐2010)
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HOUSE PRICE INDICES
Amsterdam Real House Price Indices (1628-‐2010)
Australian Real House Price Indices (1880-‐2010)
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ConstrucFng a House Price Indices For Istanbul
• Lack of reliable data • Gathering offer prices from newspaper adv. • Homogeneity of housing units • Stable building stock • Three subcenters • 25 years, 100 Quarters, app.20.000 data • Square meter prices/rents
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Real House Price Indices For Three Subcenters In İstanbul
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House Rent Indices For Three Subcenters In Istanbul
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RelaFve House Price Indicies For Three Subcenters In Istanbul
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Real House Price and Rent Indicies For Istanbul
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Rent MulFplier For Istanbul (Price To Rent RaFo)
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Long Term Average Real House Price In Istanbul
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Long Term Average Real House Price In Istanbul
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Long Term Average Real House Rent In Istanbul
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Long Term Average Real House Rent In Istanbul
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Mortgage Rates vs ResidenFal Cap Rates
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Turkish EuroBond Yields, US Bonds, ResidenFal Cap Rates
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House Price vs. Stock Exchange
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Real House Price vs ConstrucFon Permits
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ResidenFal Cap Rate vs. Commercial Cap Rate (2003-‐2012)
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Conclusions:
• Real rents are more stable than real prices • ResidenTal cap rates are compaTble with financial returns • Housing supply is elasTc • New subcenters are emerging • Land is subsTtuted by capital (Taller buildings) • Decrease in interest rates fuelled house prices
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THANKS
Dr. Ahmet BÜYÜKDUMAN ahmet.buyukduman@İdg.com.tr
+90 532 4687252
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• Ahmet Büyükduman, ODTÜ’den Lisans, İstanbul Üniversitesi’nden
Yüksek Lisans ve Doktora derecelerine sahipTr.
• 1993-‐2005 yılları arasında finans sektöründe müfefş, şube müdürü ve
kredi pazarlama müdürü olarak görev yapmışir.
• 2005 yılından bu yana gayrimenkul değerleme sektöründe yöneTci
olarak görev yapmaktadır.
• Profesyonel kariyerinin yanında 1998 yılından bu yana üniversitelerde
yarı zamanlı öğreTm görevlisi olarak çalışmakta ve kurumlara yönelik
eğiTmler vermektedir.
AHMET BÜYÜKDUMAN KİMDİR?
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İSTANBUL KONUT KİRA VE FİYAT ENDEKSİ
TCMB Konut Fiyat Endeksi İle Tez Çalışmasında Oluşturulan Fiyat Endeksi
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İSTANBUL KONUT KİRA VE FİYAT ENDEKSİ TÜİK Gerçek Kira Endeksi ile Tez Çalışmasında Oluşturulan Kira Endeksinin Karşılaşirılması
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KONUT PİYASASI İÇİN ÖNCÜ BİR GÖSTERGE: OTOFİNANSMAN KATSAYISI Oto Finansman Katsayısı ve Reel Konut Fiyatları (2004-‐2012)
Oto finansman katsayısı incelediğimiz dönemde %20 ile %35 arasında düzenli bir şekilde dalgalanmışir. Parmak hesabıyla OFK’nın %20’lere yaklaşiğında konutların aşırı değerlendirildiğini, OFK’nın %30’u aşiğı durumlarda ise konut fiyatlarının düşük değerlendirildiğini söyleyebiliriz.
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İSTANBUL KONUT KİRA VE FİYAT ENDEKSİ Konut Arz Eğrisinde Kayma
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İSTANBUL KONUT KİRA VE FİYAT ENDEKSİ
Nominal Kiralar ve Fiyatlarda Yıllık Değişim