Download - Home Price Monitor: April 2012
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Home Price Monitor
April 2012
National Association of REALTORS
Research Division
Cutting Through the Noise: Various Home Price Measure
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Highlights
On a month-to-month basis most home price measures showed growth inFebruary, in a typical seasonal fashion. The exceptions were Case-Shillers10- and 20-city indexes and CoreLogics HPI which showed small declines.Early measures for March show a more positive month to month trend.
More encouragingly, on a year over year basis, price declines were generallysmaller across measures in February, and FHFA data showed slight price
growth over the year. Early data for March suggest a strengthening of theyear over year growth trend.
New home prices continue to fluctuate greatly due to low levels ofconstruction and purchase activity and presently show strong growth.
Distressed sales, which hold back existing home prices, comprised 29percent of sales in a recent survey of Realtorsdown from 40 percenta year ago and on the lower end of the range of what has been typicalin recent months. This is a positive sign for prices.
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/distressed-property/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/distressed-property/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/distressed-property/ -
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Outlook
From a broad perspective, many of the same stabilizing trends continue todrive the outlook. Low inventories, declining delinquency rates, and strong
foot traffic should help to support prices, though buyers searching for the
right home may have fewer options from which to choose.
Very limited new construction means that buyers initially searching for a new
home may find more selection among existing homes despite tight inventory.
Housing permits appear to be picking up, but are still at low levels and
construction takes time, so new supply is not yet on the market.
Affordability remains high and jobs figures continue to be a positive sign. An
improving economy coupled with affordability could provide a needed jolt to
primary residence sales and some of this jolt has been seen as sales have
improved dramatically over one year ago.
Rising apartment rents may make a home purchase the more affordable option
for some households, adding to the positive trend for sales and prices.
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/foot-traffic/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/foot-traffic/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/employment/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/rents/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/rents/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/employment/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/foot-traffic/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/foot-traffic/ -
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Home Prices
100.00
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$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
Feb-02
M
ay-02
Aug-02
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Feb-03
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Feb-09
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Feb-10
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Feb-11
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Feb-12
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($)New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100)CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
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Home Price Data Year over Year Change
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Fe
b-02
Ma
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No
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No
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No
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No
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No
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No
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No
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Au
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No
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Fe
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NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($)New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100)CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)
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Home Price Changes
*All data are not seasonally adjusted. Monthly changes should typically be computed only for
Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data. Because these change rates are often covered in the media
regardless of their suitability for analysis, they are presented here but should be used with
caution. Annual (yr-over-yr) changes computed for Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data give a
measure that is not affected by seasonal fluctuations.
Data Series
Feb-12
Monthly
Change*
Feb-12
Annual
Change*
Mar-12
Monthly
Change*
Mar-12
Annual
Change*
Next
Release
Date
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes 0.6% -0.3% 5.3% 2.5% 22-May
NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes 1.0% -0.5% 4.8% 1.9% 22-May
FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only 0.6% 0.4% -- -- 23-MayS&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20 -0.8% -3.5% -- -- 29-May
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 -0.8% -3.6% -- -- 29-May
CoreLogic National HPI -0.8% -2.0% -- -- Mid-May
CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded 0.7% -0.8% -- -- Mid-May
New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price 8.7% 7.6% -1.0% 6.3% 23-May
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
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Spread of Existing Home Price ChangesYear over Year
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, HAVER
-25.00
-20.00
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
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Supply and Demand Factors Inventory
Sources: NAR
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at EOP, United States (Units, NSA)
NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes, United States (Months)
NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes,
United States (Months) (right axis)
NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale atEOP, United States (Units, NSA) (left axis)
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SupplyNew Housing Starts and Permits
Sources: Census
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Housing Starts: 1 Unit (SAAR, Thous.Units) Housing Units Authorized: 1-Unit Structures (SAAR, Thous.Units)
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Underlying Demand Job Growth and Hires
Sources: BLS
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (SA, Thous) JOLTS: Hires: Total (SA, Thous)
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Potential Job Growth Openings
Sources: BLS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
JOLTS: Job Openings: Total (SA, Thous)
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Housing Affordability
Sources: NAR
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
NAR Housing Affordability: Payment as Percent of Income, U.S. (%)
NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite (Fixed + ARM), United States
NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite
(right axis)
NAR Payment as Percent of Income(left axis)
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About the Price Data Series
Data Series Strengths/Weaknesses of Data Series
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes
NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes
FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only
Weighted Repeat Sales (WRS) Index, sourced from Fannie/Freddie purchase &
refinance mortgages (excludes FHA, VA, Jumbo, Subprime)
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10
CoreLogic National HPI
CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded
New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price Based on home builder interviews in the Survey of Construction
Most timely Data, broad geographic coverage, sourced from MLS and Realtor board
data, data in dollars, total exisiting includes condos and coops
WRS Index, sourced from County recorder data, weighted by property value;quarterly national index (not shown), monthly 10 and 20-city metro indexes and
composites are 3 month moving averages
Weighted Repeat Sales Index, sourced from database of loan servicing and County
recorder data
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER