Historical Analysis WG
Report to TASNovember 28, 2007
Overview
1. OATI Database Review
2. 2006 Path Flow Report – Approval Item
3. Future Archiving of Commercial Data
I. OATI Database Review
• OATI “commercial” Database– Developed under a Contract with US DOE
– Database time period - 2004-05
– Commercial Data for 28 major WECC paths
– Hourly directional ATC, Schedules, OTC, CBM/TRM
– Source - POR POD data from western OASIS sites• WestTrans, BPA, CAISO, PacifiCorp
– Appears to be much missing data in database
Review Results
• Requested TPs review the OATI database– Sent to 22 TPs to review their data– Only 13 have responded – now 6 weeks past due date– Only 7 have actually reviewed the data and provided
comments (BPA, SRP, CAISO, PAC, El Paso, WALC, Platte River)
– 4 of the 13 have indicated they cannot review the database– Conclusion: Appears the OATI database will have limited
usefulness– Next Step: identify those WECC paths with sufficient
data to do some analysis to check analysis methodology
II. 2006 Path Flow Report
• Requesting TAS approval of the report• Report presents the analysis performed in
2006 as part of the first US DOE congestion study, thru the WCATF
• Uses actual historical hourly MW flows on all major paths; no ATC or Schedule data
• Summary of analysis was submitted to US DOE in May 2006
Contents of path flow report
• Analyzes 24 WECC paths - - 1998 thru 2005• For each path - - presents a bar chart showing
seasonal U75 from 1998 thru 2005 • For each path - - presents seasonal frequency
distribution plot for 2004 and 2005• Includes charts summarizing U75 and U90 for all
24 paths• Presents trend analysis charts - - 1998 thru 2005• See example charts in following slides
BUCKLEY
SUNDANCE
FT. PECK
PEACE CANYON
MICA
VANCOUVER
SEATTLE
PRINCE RUPERT
AREA
AREA
COLSTRIP
BOISE
PORTLANDAREA
MALIN
TABLE MTN
ROUND MTN
SALT LAKECITY AREA
MEXICO
EL PASOAREA
DEVERSLUGO
SAN FRANCISCO
MIDPOINT
AREA
LOS ANGELESAREA
ALBUQUERQUEAREA
NAVAJO
DENVERAREA
MOJAVE
HOOVER
PHOENIXAREA
LANGDON
HOT SPRINGS
HELLSCANYON
CHIEF JOSEPH
BURNS
PINTO
FOURCORNERS
SHASTA
LANGDON
CANADA
UNITED STATES
6665
14
8
30
15
49
31
19
22
34
47
3
35
18
1720
23
26
36
45
5051 4
8
48
Transmission Paths
1
Path RankingMaximum Seasonal Values from 1999 through 2005
% of Time Path Actual Flow exceeds 75% of Path OTC
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19 50 22 47 30 36 3 8 48 35 17 66 65 15 31 1 26 45 49 18 20 34 51 14
WECC Path Number
% T
ime
Pat
h F
low
Exc
eed
s 75
% o
f O
TC
W
Sp
Su
Represents the highest Seasonal Loading for each Path, from 1999 thru 2005
50% of Time
25% of Time
Bridger West
Cholla - Pinnacle Pk
SW of 4C
S. New Mex.
TOT 1A (CO to Utah)
TOT 3 (WY to CO)
Montana to Northwest - Path 8Actual Flows
Historical % of Time Seasonal Flow exceed 75% of Path OTC
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
W98-99
W00-01
W01-02
W04-05
AveW
Spr99
Spr01
Spr02
Spr04
Spr05
AveSp
Su 99 Su 00 Su 01 Su 04 Su 05 AveSum
Season
% T
ime
Flo
w E
xcee
ds
75%
OT
C
W 98-99
W 00-01
W 01-02
W 04-05
Ave W
Spr 99
Spr 01
Spr 02
Spr 04
Spr 05
Ave Sp
Su 99
Su 00
Su 01
Su 04
Su 05
Ave Sum
Montana to NW - Path 8Actual Flows - MWs
Spring 2004 thru Summer 2005
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Path Flow - Per Unit of OTC
% T
ime
> P
ath
Flo
w l
evel
All Seasons
Sum 2005
W 04-05
Spr 05
Sum 2004
Spr 2004
OTC = 2200 MW EtoW
Path Utilization Trend - Winter Season1998 through 2005
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
W98-99 W00-01 W01-02 W04-05 W98-99 W00-01 W01-02 W04-05
Season
Nu
mb
er o
f Pat
hs
>75%
of p
ath
OT
C
>25% of time
>50% of time
III. Future Archiving of Commercial Data
• Formed a new Subgroup to develop a future data collection process
• Membership – – Includes representative of the HAWG and each SPG (NTTG, CG,
CAISO, SWAT, CCPG)
• Options under consideration– Use WECC staff resources to integrate data gathering and
archiving process with rebuilding of WECC web site– Obtain services from a database vendor– The Vendor option would help address the workload problem we
are experiencing with database development. Need to determine the cost.
Vendor Option - ZE Group• Webcast presentation by ZE group on November 20• ZE currently gathers over 400 data points accessible
from the web, from OASIS sites, TP sites, etc.• Can do the conversion of POR POD OASIS data to
WECC path data• Can do database computations (statistical
calculations, graphic presentations, chronological plots, seasonal and peak and off peak analysis, etc.)
QUESTIONS ???