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Workshop on “Unconventional monetary policy:
Effectiveness and risks”
(Rome,29-30March2016)
On 29-30March 2016 the Bank of Italy hosted the Fourth Economic Outlook and
MonetaryPolicyDirectorateInternalWorkshop,whichthisyearaddressedthetheme
“Unconventionalmonetarypolicy:Effectivenessandrisks.”
Theeventfeaturedfourteenpresentations(allwithdiscussion),distributedoversix
sessions.TheworkspresentedintheAirstsessionfocusedontheeffectivenessofthe
recentunconventionalmonetarypolicymeasures;thesecondsessionexploredtheir
redistributiveconsequences;thethirdsessionwasdevotedtoanalyzingtheportfolio
rebalancingeffect,bothwithintheareaandinthebroaderinternationalcontext;the
papers presented in the fourth session proposed differentmethods to detect asset
overvaluation and the possible emergence of bubbles due to the impact of the
unconventional measures on asset prices; the Aifth session assessed the market
responsetotheannouncementsofunconventionalmeasures,distinguishingbetween
positiveandnegativesurprises;thepaperspresentedinthelastsessionfocusedon
the effects of exiting prematurely from unconventional policies. Overall, the
contributionsoftheworkshophighlightedtheeffectivenessofthemeasuresrecently
adopted in the euro area in affecting the yields of Ainancial assets and inducing a
portfolio rebalancing, thus leading to an improvement in the growth and inAlation
outlook, with no undesirable redistributive consequences nor clear risks of asset
price bubbles. The effectiveness of themeasures is nonetheless conditional on the
purchaseprogrammehavingappropriatesizeandduration.
Someof thepaperspresented in theworkshopwill soonbe circulated asWorking
Papers (Temi di Discussione) of the Bank of Italy, following the regular refereeing
process.
Theprogrammeisavailablehere.
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"Workshop on “Current issues in �iscal policy”
(Rome,31March-1April2016)
From 31March to 2 April, the Bank of Italy hosted its 18thWorkshop on Public
Finance,whichthisyearfocusedon“CurrentissuesinAiscalpolicy”.
The event featured nineteen presentations (allwith discussion), distributed over
six sessions, and three short speeches delivered by well-known European and
American Aiscal experts. The works presented in the Airst session focused on
sovereigndefaulteventsandthesubsequentrecoveryofmarketaccess.Thesecond
sessionexploredtheissueofdebtsustainability.Thethirdsessionwasdevotedto
Highlights 1
Forthcoming events 2
Latest working papers 4
Latest occasional papers 9
Economic History working paper 17
Historical series of the Bank of Italy 17
Workshops and Conferences series 18
Selection of journal articles and books 19
Useful links 23
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Highlights
NUMBER 42
APRIL 2016
http://www.bancaditalia.it/media/agenda/convegni-2016/CPM-programme-20160324.pdf?language_id=1
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Forthcoming events
proposalsaimedatcompletingandimprovingtheEMUinstitutionalframework.
The papers presented in the fourth session assessed the link between taxation, regulation and
economicgrowth.TheAifthsessiondiscussedtheinstitutionalrootsandtheeconomicconsequencesof
subnational budgetary policies, while the papers presented in the last session focused on
macroeconomicestimatesoftheeffectsofAiscalpolicies.
Overall,thestudiespresentedtotheworkshop,showingawidevarietyofmethodologies,contributed
to shed further light on some of themost relevant issues currently debated in the domain of Aiscal
policy. In the tradition of previous editions, great attentionwas devoted to institutional design and
recentpolicydevelopments.
Most of the papers presented in the workshopwill soon be available on a dedicated corner of the
Bancad’Italiawebsite.
_________________________________________________________________
"Central banking in the XXI century: never say never".
Speech by Fabio Panetta
(Milan,14April2016)
FabioPanetta,DeputyGovernorof theBankof Italy,gaveaspeechentitled"Central banking in the
XXI century: never say never"attheSUERF/BafAiCareAinConference"Centralbankingandmonetary
policy:Whichwillbethenewnormal?"heldinMilan.
Thespeechisavailablehere.
First Rome Junior Finance Conference
(Rome,6-7June2016)
On 6-7 June 2016, EIEF will host and organize the “First Rome Junior Finance Conference”. The
conference will bring together junior researchers active in empirical and theoretical Ainance.
Participantswillreceiveaninvitationfromtheorganizingcommittee.
Furtherinformationwillbeavailablehere.
_________________________________________________________________
Sixth Bank of Italy/CEPR Conference on Money,
Banking and Finance “Monetary policy after the
crisis: new views, open questions”
(Rome,9-10June2016)
On 9-10 June 2016 the Bank of Italy will host the Sixth Bank of Italy/CEPR Conference onMoney,
BankingandFinancewhichthisyearwillbedevotedtothethemeof"Monetarypolicyafterthecrisis:
newviews,openquestions".
Theconferencewill focuson the roleplayedbymonetarypolicy inanenvironmentofweakgrowth
and low inAlation, exploring new transmission channels that inAluence the redistributive effects of
monetarypolicy,theimpactofmonetarypolicyonportfolioallocationandtheinAluencethishasonthe
propensitytoriskofinvestors.
The organizing committee is composed of the following members: Nobuhiro Kiyotaki (Princeton
UniversityandCEPR),PaoloSurico(LondonBusinessSchoolandCEPR),StefanoNeri(BankofItaly),
Giuseppe Ferrero (Bank of Italy) and Piergiorgio Alessandri (Bank of Italy). The deadline for the
submissionofpapersis5February2016.
Thecallforpapersisavailablehere.
Highlights
http://www.bancaditalia.it/media/notizia/central-banking-in-the-xxi-century-never-say-never-speech-by-fabio-panettahttp://www.eief.it/events/forthcoming-events/http://www.bancaditalia.it/media/agenda/convegni-2015/BI-CEPR_2016_Call_for_papers.pdf?language_id=1
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_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
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Forthcoming events _________________________________________________________________
First Rome Junior Conference on Applied
Microeconomics
(Rome,23-24June2016)
On 23-24 June 2016, EIEF will host and organize the “First Rome Junior Conference on Applied
Microeconomics”.Theconferencewillfosterinteractionamongresearchersactiveindifferentareas
ofappliedmicroeconomics.Theselectionof invitedpresenterswillgivepreference toeconomistsat
theearlystagesoftheircareer.
Furtherinformationwillbeavailablehere. _________________________________________________________________
Fifth Rome Conference on Macroeconomics
(Rome,27-28June2016)
On27-28June2016,EIEFwillhostandorganizethe“Fifth Rome Conference on Macroeconomics”.
Theconferencewillbringtogetherjunior“high-Alier”economistsfromaroundtheworldwithastrong
interestinmacroeconomics.
Furtherinformationwillbeavailablehere. _________________________________________________________________
Second Summer Workshop in Political Economy
(Rome,4-5July2016)
On 4-5 July 2016, EIEF will host the “Second Summer Workshop in Political Economy”. The
workshop will focus on research at the intersection of political economy, public Ainance, and
macroeconomics.
Furtherinformationwillbeavailablehere. _________________________________________________________________
CSEF-EIEF-SITE Conference on Finance and Labor
(Rome,8-9September2016)
The Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), EIEF and the Stanford Institute for
Theoretical Economics (SITE) invite paper submissions on the relationships between Ainance and
labour.Thesubmissiondeadlineis30April2016.
Thecallforpapersisavailablehere. _________________________________________________________________
12th DYNARE Conference
(Rome,29-30September2016)
TheBankofItaly,togetherwithBanquedeFrance,DSGE-net,andtheDynareprojectatCEPREMAP,is
organizing the “12th Annual DYNARE Conference”. The conference will be held in Rome on
September29-30,2016.Itwillbringtogetherleadingscholars indynamicmacroeconomicmodelling
aswellasresearchersworkinginthisAieldfromleadingpolicymakingInstitutions.PierpaoloBenigno
(LUISS Guido Carli University and EIEF) and Raf Wouters (National Bank of Belgium) will be the
plenaryspeakers.
Thecallforpapersisavailablehere.
https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/altri-atti-seminari/index.html?com.dotmarketing.htmlpage.language=1http://www.eief.it/seminars/http://www.eief.it/events/forthcoming-events/http://www.eief.it/events/forthcoming-events/http://www.eief.it/events/forthcoming-events/http://www.eief.it/files/2016/02/call-for-papers_csef_eief_site_2016_conference.pdfhttp://www.dynare.org/events/12th-dynare-conference
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No.1065:How excessive is banks’ maturity transformation? (April2016)
AnatoliSeguraandJavierSuarez
Wequantifythegainsfromregulatingbanks’maturitytransformationinaninAinitehorizonmodelofbankswhichAinancelong-termassetswithnon-tradabledebt.Bankschoosetheamountandmaturityoftheirdebttradingoffinvestors’preferenceforshortmaturitieswiththeriskofsystemiccrises.AsinStein(2012),pecuniaryexternalitiesmakeunregulateddebtmaturitiesinefAicientlyshort.TheassessmentisbasedonthecalibrationofthemodeltoEurozonebankingdatafor2006.Lengtheningtheaveragematurityofwholesaledebtfromits2.8monthsto3.3monthswouldproducewelfaregainswithapresentvalueofeuro105billion.Fulltext(pdf)
No.1064:EAGLE-FLI. A macroeconomic model of banking and �inancial
interdependence in the euro area
(April2016)
NikolaBokan,AndreaGerali,SandraGomes,Pascal
JacquinotandMassimilianoPisani
Banks,DSGEmodels,econometricmodels,Ainancialfrictions,open-economymacroeconomics,policyanalysis
Abstract:WeincorporateAinanciallinkagesinEAGLE,aNewKeynesianmulti-countrydynamicgeneralequilibriummodeloftheeuroarea(EA)byincludingAinancialfrictionsandcountry-speciAicbankingsectors.Inthisnewversion,termedEAGLE-FLI(EuroAreaandGLobalEconomywithFinancialLInkages),bankscollectdepositsfromdomestichouseholdsandcross-countryinterbankmarketandraisecapitaltoAinanceloansissuedtodomestichouseholdsandAirms.Inordertoborrowfromlocal(regional)banks,householdsusedomesticrealestatewhereasAirmsusebothdomesticrealestateandphysicalcapitalasacollateral.Thesefeatures–togetherwiththefullcharacterizationoftradebalanceandrealexchangeratedynamicsandwitharicharrayofAinancialshocks–allowtoproperlyassessdomesticandcross-countrymacroeconomiceffectsofAinancialshocks.Ourresultssupporttheviewsthat(1)thebusinesscyclesintheEAcanbedrivennotonlybyrealshocks,butalsobyAinancialshocks,(2)theAinancialsectorcouldamplifythetransmissionof(real)shocks,and(3)theAinancial/bankingshocks
andthebankingsectorscanbesourcesofbusinesscycleasymmetriesandspilloversacrosscountriesinamonetaryunion.Fulltext(pdf)
No.1063:Informational contagion in the laboratory (April2016)
MarcoVacirca,AntonioGuarino,Giovanni
Guazzarotti,FedericoTagliatiandSvenFischer
WestudytheinformationalchannelofAinancialcontagionunderlaboratoryconditions.Inourexperiment,twomarketswithcorrelatedfundamentalsopensequentiallyandinbothofthemsubjectsreceiveprivateinformation.SubjectsinthemarketopeningsecondalsoobservethehistoryoftradesandpricesintheAirstmarket.WeAindthatalthoughinbothmarketsprivateinformationisonlyimperfectlyaggregated,subjectsareabletomakecorrectinferencesbasedonthepublicinformationcomingfromthemarketthatopensAirst.WethusobserveAinancialcontagionunderlaboratoryconditions:thecorrelationbetweenassetpricesisveryclosetothatpredictedbythetheory.Moreover,asthetheorypredicts,thereisnocontagionwhenassetfundamentalsareindependent:inotherwords,subjectsonlyreacttothehistoryofpricesandtradesintheAirstmarketwhenitisrationaltodosobecausetheyconveyinformation.Fulltext(pdf)
No.1062:Market timing and performance attribution in the ECB reserve
management framework
(April2016)
FrancescoPotenteandAntonioScalia
WestudytheperformanceofagroupofforeignexchangereservemanagersthatareresponsibleforinvestingtheECB’sofAicialreservesinUSdollars,foravalueofaround$43billion,usinganewdatasetwhichincludesdetailedportfolioholdingsfrom2006to2010.TheECBreservemanagersdisplayapositiveabilityatsecurityselectionoverall.Twoportfoliomanagersshowmarkettimingabilityafteradjustingforthenon-linearityofthebenchmarkreturns.Foroneportfoliomanager,markettimingabilityissigniAicantlyrelatedtotheefAicientuseofpublicinformation.Topindownmarkettiming,wedevelopaperformanceattributionmodelwhichidentiAiesthecontributionofthekeyportfoliomanagers’strategies(duration,curve,andspread).WeAindthat,amongtheactivelayers,the
Latest working papers
http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1063/en_tema_1063.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1064/en_tema_1064.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1065/en_tema_1065.pdf?language_id=1
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spreadcontributionseemsthemostsigniAicant;curveanddurationbets,withsomeexceptions,havegenerallyprovidedlittlevalueadded.OuranalysissupportstheviewthatportfoliomanagersadoptdiversiAiedinvestmentstyles.Thismayexplainthenon-negligibleresultoftheaggregatereserveportfolio,averaging10basispointsonanannualbasis,netoftransactioncosts.ThemorediversiAiedtheinvestmentstylesare,themorelikelyitisthatportfoliomanagersmakeindependentbets,whichinturnmaypositivelyaffecttherisk-adjustedreturnoftheaggregateportfolio.Fulltext(pdf)
No.1061:An evaluation of the policies on repayment of Government’s
trade debt in Italy (April2016)
LeandroD’AurizioandDomenicoDepalo
Since2012theItalianGovernmenthastakenseveralstepstorepayitscommercialdebts.Usingacompositedataset,weevaluatetheeffectsofthesepoliciesontheAinancialperformanceofarepresentativesampleofItalianAirms.WedistinguishbetweentheAirmsthatwerebeneAiciariesoftheserepayments,thosethatwerenotrepaid,thoughtheyhadalegitimateclaim,andthosethathadnocommercialtieswiththegeneralgovernment.WeAindthatreceivingmoneyhadasigniAicantpositiveimpactonAirms’Ainancialposition.Fulltext(pdf)
No.1060:Intergenerational mobility in the very long run: Florence 1427-
2011 (April2016)
GuglielmoBaroneandSauroMocetti
Weexamineintergenerationalmobilityintheverylongrun,acrossgenerationsthataresixcenturiesapart.WeexploitauniquedatasetcontainingdetailedinformationattheindividuallevelforallpeoplelivingintheItaliancityofFlorencein1427.Theseindividualshavebeenassociated,usingtheirsurnames,withtheirpseudo-descendantslivinginFlorencein2011.WeAindthatearningselasticityisabout0.04,muchhigherthanpredictedbytraditionalmodelsofintergenerationalmobility.WealsoAindanevenstrongerroleforrealwealthinheritanceandevidenceofpersistenceinbelongingtocertaineliteprofessions.OurresultsareconAirmedwhenweaccountforthequalityofthepseudo-linksandwhenweaddressthepotentialselectivitybiasdue
tothedifferentialsurvivalratesacrosssurnames.Wearguethatthequasi-immobilityofpre-industrialsocietyandthepositionaladvantagesintheaccesstocertainprofessionsmightexplain(inpart)thelong-lastingeffectsofancestors’socioeconomicstatus.Fulltext(pdf)
No.1059:Estimating the money market microstructure with negative and
zero interest rates
(February2016)
EdoardoRainoneandFrancescoVacirca
Moneymarketmicrostructureisfundamentaltostudyingbankbehaviour,toevaluatingmonetarypolicyandtoassessingtheAinancialstabilityofthesystem.Giventhelackofgranulardataoninterbankloans,FurAine(1999)proposedanalgorithmtoestimatethemicrostructureusingdatafromthepaymentsystem.WeproposeaneconometricmethodologytoassessandimprovethequalityofthemoneymarketmicrostructureestimatedbytheFurAinealgorithminthepresenceofzeroandnegativerates,exploitinginformationcomingfrommarketregularities.WeAirstextendthestandardFurAinealgorithmtoincludenegativeratesandverifythepresenceofsigniAicantnoiseataspeciAicrate.Secondly,weproposeaninferentialprocedurethatenrichesandcorrectsthestandardalgorithmbasedontheeconomiclikelihoodofloans.Marketregularitiesobservedinthisdecentralizedmarketareusedtoincreasethereliabilityoftheestimatedinterbanknetwork.Thirdly,themethodologyisappliedtoTARGET2,theEuropeanwholesalepaymentsystem.Themainimpactsofrecentmonetarypolicydecisionsonkeyinterestratesarestudied,comparingthestandardalgorithmwiththeneweconometricprocedure.Fulltext(pdf)
No.1058:The quantity of corporate credit rationing with matched bank-
�irm data (February2016)
LorenzoBurlon,DavideFantino,AndreaNobiliand
GabrieleSene
ThispaperprovidesmeasuresofcreditrationinginthemarketoftermloanstoItaliannon-AinancialAirms.Weidentifynon-priceallocationsofcreditbyexploitingauniquebank-Airmdatasetofmorethan5millionobservations,whichmatchesthequantityandthecostofcreditavailablefromtheCreditRegisterwithanumber
Latest working papers
http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1059/en_tema_1059.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1060/en_tema_1060.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1061/en_tema_1061.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1062/en_tema_1062.pdf?language_id=1
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ofbank-andAirm-speciAiccharacteristicsfromdifferentsourcesofmicrodata.WeproposeanapproachthatendogenouslyidentiAiesallthebank-Airmtransactionssubjecttocreditrationing,thuscircumventingaggregationbiasesstemmingfromtheuseoflessdetailedinformation.TheestimatessuggestthatintheItaliancase,rationingmostlyreAlectedanincreaseinnon-performingloansinbanks'portfoliosandadeclineinavailablecollateral.Borrowers'characteristicsplayedaminorrole,althoughbanksdidswitchtheirsupplyoffundsinfavourofAirmswithgreatercreditworthinessaftertheoutbreakofthesovereigndebtcrisis.Fulltext(pdf)
No.1057: The real effects of credit crunch in the Great Recession: evidence
from Italian provinces(February2016)
GuglielmoBarone,GuidodeBlasioandSauroMocetti
Thepaperestimatestheeffectsontherealeconomyofthesharpreductioninthesupplyofcreditfollowingthe2008Ainancialcrisis.Wedevelopameasureoflocalcreditsupplythatisbasedonthemarketsharesofthebanksthatservealocaleconomyandthenationalchangeineachbank’slendingthatisattributabletosupplyfactors(i.e.purgedoflocaldemandfactors).Thedecreaseinourcreditsupplyindicator,whichisstronglycorrelatedtothegrowthofoutstandingloans,accountsfor13percentofthecontractioninrealvalueaddedwithrespecttothepre-crisisperiod.Thenegativeeffectsalsoconcernemployment,althoughtoalesserextent.TherealeffectsofthecreditcrunchareconcentratedonsmallAirmsandintheareasthataremoredependentuponexternalAinance.Finally,creditsupplyshocksaffectedlendingbutnotrealoutcomesinthepre-crisisperiod.Fulltext(pdf)
No.1056:Retirement, pension eligibility and home production
(February2016)
EmanueleCiani
IestimatetheeffectofretirementonhouseworkbyexploitingthediscontinuityinpensioneligibilitygeneratedbytheItaliansocialsecurityrules.Usingmicrodatafromthe2007waveoftheSurveyonIncomeandLivingConditions(SILC),Ishowthatwomenincreasetheirtimespenton
homeproductionbymorethan400minutesperweek.Formen,thereisonaveragenoevidenceofasigniAicantchange,whichdiffersfromtheresultsofstudiesinothercountries.However,estimatesareheterogeneousbymaritalstatus,suggestingthatmarriedmendonotincreasetimespentonhouseholdproductionbecausetheycanrelyontheirspouses.Ialsodiscussotherpossibleexplanations,inparticularmendedicatingtheirtimeto‘semi-leisurechores’thatdonotfallunderthedeAinitionofhouseworkusedinSILC.Overall,resultssuggestthatretirementdoesnotleadtoamoreequaldistributionof‘core’householdchoresbetweengenders.Fulltext(pdf)
No.1055:Bank internationalization and �irm exports: evidence from
matched �irm-bank data
(February2016)
RaffaelloBronziniandAlessioD'Ignazio
InthispaperweinvestigatewhethernewexporterAirmshaveahigherprobabilityofstartingtoexporttothecountrieswheretheirAinancingbankshavealreadyestablishedtheirbranches.TheunderlyingmechanismwehypothesizeisbasedonthetransmissionofforeignmarketknowledgefrombankstoAirms,soastocutdowninformationbarrierstointernationaltrade.InthosecountrieswheresuchinformationisarguablymoreprecioustotheAirm,wefoundasigniAicantpositiverelationshipbetweenaAirm’sprobabilityofbeginningtoexporttoonemarket,andthepresenceinthesamemarketofabranchoftheAirm’sAinancingbank.Coherentlywiththemechanismhypothesized,weAindastrongereffectforcloserAirm-bankrelationships,andwhenbankshaveestablishedtheirbranchesabroadoveralongertimeperiod.Fulltext(pdf)
No.1054:Labor force participation, wage rigidities, and in�lation
(February2016)
FrancescoNucciandMariannaRiggi
ThefallinUSlaborforceparticipationduringtheGreatRecessionstandsinsharpcontrastwithitsparallelincreaseintheeuroarea.Inadditiontostructuralforces,cyclicalfactorsareshowntoaccountforthisphenomenon,withtheparticipationratebeingprocyclicalintheUSfromtheinceptionofthecrisisandcountercyclicalin
Latest working papers
http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1058/en_tema_1058.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1057/en_tema_1057.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1056/en_tema_1056.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1055/en_tema_1055.pdf?language_id=1
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theeuroarea.Werationalizethesedivergingdynamicsbyusingageneralequilibriumbusinesscyclemodel,whichneststheendogenousparticipationdecisionsintoasearchandmatchingmodel.Weshowthatthe"addedworker"effectmightoutweighthe"discouragementeffect"ifrealwagerigiditiesareallowedforand/orhabitinconsumerpreferencesissufAicientlystrong.WethendrawtheimplicationsofvariablelaborforceparticipationratesforinAlationandestablishthefollowingresult:ifendogenousmovementsinlabormarketparticipationareenvisaged,thenthedegreeofrealwagerigiditiesbecomesalmostirrelevantforpricedynamics.Indeed,duringrecessions,theupwardpressuresoninAlationstemmingfromthelackofadownwardadjustmentinrealwagesareoffsetbyanoppositeinAluencefromtheadditionalloosenessinthelabormarket,duetothehigherparticipationrateassociatedwithwagerigidities.Fulltext(pdf)
No.1053:Estimation of counterfactual distributions with a continuous
endogenous treatment
(February2016)
SantiagoPeredaFernández
Policymakersareofteninterestedinthedistributionaleffectsthatapolicywouldhave.InthispaperIproposeamethodtoestimatesucheffectswhenthetreatmentvariableisendogenous,continuous,andhasaheterogeneouseffect.Iconsideratriangularsystemofequationsinwhichtheunobservablesarerelatedbyacopulathatcapturestheendogeneityofthemodel.ThecopulaisnonparametricallyidentiAiedbyinvertingthequantileprocessesconditionalonavectorofcovariates.Iestimatebothconditionalquantileprocessesusingexistingquantileregressionmethods,andproposeaparametricandanonparametricestimatorofthecopula,showingtheasymptoticpropertiesoftheestimators.Iconsiderthreekindsofcounterfactualexperiments:changingthedistributionofthetreatment,changingthedistributionoftheinstrument,andchangingthedeterminationofthetreatment,discussingtheestimationforeachcounterfactual.Iillustratethesemethodsbyestimatingseveralcounterfactualsthataffectthedistributionoftheshareoffoodconsumption.Fulltext(pdf)
No.1052:Adaptive models and heavy tails(February2016)
DavideDelleMonacheandIvanPetrella
Thispaperintroducesanadaptivealgorithmfortime-varyingautoregressivemodelsinthepresenceofheavytails.Theevolutionoftheparametersisdeterminedbythescoreoftheconditionaldistribution.Theresultingmodelisobservation-drivenandisestimatedbyclassicalmethods.Meaningfulrestrictionsareimposedonthemodelparameterssoastoattainlocalstationarityandboundedmeanvalues.Inparticular,weconsidertimevariationinbothcoefAicientsandvolatility,emphasizinghowthetwointeract.Moreover,weshowhowtheproposedapproachgeneralizesthevariousadaptivealgorithmsusedintheliterature.ThemodelisappliedtotheanalysisofinAlationdynamics.AllowingforheavytailsleadstosigniAicantimprovementsintermsofAitandforecast.TheadoptionoftheStudent's-tdistributionprovestobecrucialinordertoobtainwell-calibrateddensityforecasts.TheseresultsareobtainedusingtheUSCPIinAlationrateandareconAirmedbyotherinAlationindicatorsaswellastheCPIoftheotherG7countries.
Fulltext(pdf)
No.1051:How does bank capital affect the supply of mortgages? Evidence
from a randomized experiment(February2016)
ValentinaMichelangeliandEnricoSette
Westudytheeffectofbankcapitalonthesupplyofmortgages.Wefullycontrolforendogenousmatchingbetweenborrowers,loancontracts,andbanksbysubmittingrandomizedmortgageapplicationstothemajoronlinemortgagebrokerinItaly.WeAindthat:higherbankcapitalisassociatedwithahigherlikelihoodofapplicationacceptanceandlowerofferedinterestrates;bankswithlowercapitalrejectapplicationsbyriskierborrowersandofferlowerratestosaferones.Finally,nonparametricestimatesoftheprobabilityofacceptanceandoftheofferedrateshowthattheeffectofbankcapitalisstrongerwhencapitalislow.
Fulltext(pdf)
Latest working papers
http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1054/en_tema_1054.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1053/en_tema_1053.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1052/en_tema_1052.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1051/en_tema_1051.pdf?language_id=1
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Other recent working papers
January 2016
No. 1050:ContagionandAiresalesinbankingnetworksSaraCecchetti,MarcoRoccoandLaura
Sigalotti
No. 1049:DebtmaturityandtheliquidityofsecondarydebtmarketsMaxBrucheandAnatoliSegura
No. 1048:HeterogeneouspeereffectsineducationEleonoraPatacchini,EdoardoRainone
andYvesZenou
No. 1047:AnewmethodforthecorrectionoftestscoresmanipulationSantiagoPeredaFernández
No. 1046:Carrytradesandexchangeratevolatility:aTVARapproachAlessioAnzuinieFrancescaBrusa
No. 1045:OptimalinAlationweightsintheeuroareaDanielaBragoli,MassimilianoRigonand
FrancescoZanetti
December 2015
No. 1044:ThesupplysideofhouseholdAinanceGabrieleFoà,LeonardoGambacorta,Luigi
GuisoandPaoloEmilioMistrulli
No. 1043:ExposuretomediaandcorruptionperceptionsLuciaRizzicaandMarcoTonello
No. 1042:Multitaskagentsandincentives:thecaseofteachingandresearchforuniversityprofessorsMartaDePhilippis
No. 1041:TheuseofAixed-termcontractsandthe(adverse)selectionofpublicsectorworkersLuciaRizzica
No. 1040:ThemacroeconomiceffectsoflowandfallinginAlationatthezerolowerboundStefanoNeriandAlessandroNotarpietro
No. 1039:Shoe-leathercostsintheeuroareaandtheforeigndemandforeurobanknotesAlessandroCalzaandAndreaZaghini
No. 1038:YoungadultslivingwiththeirparentsandtheinAluenceofpeersEffrosyniAdamopoulouandEzgiKaya
No. 1037:Deconstructingthegainsfromtrade:selectionofindustriesvs.reallocationofworkersStefanoBolattoandMassimoSbracia
http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1050/en_tema_1050.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1049/en_tema_1049.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1048/en_tema_1048.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1047/en_tema_1047.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1046/en_tema_1046.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1045/en_tema_1045.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1044/en_tema_1044.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1043/en_tema_1043.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1042/en_tema_1042.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1041/en_tema_1041.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1040/en_tema_1040.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1039/en_tema_1039.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1038/en_tema_1038.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1037/en_tema_1037.pdf?language_id=1
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No.329:Using external sources to understand sample survey bias:
the case of the Invind survey
(April2016)
LeandroD’AurizioandGiuseppinaPapadia
WelookattwosourcesofbiasinsurveyestimatesoftheBankofItaly’sSurveyofIndustrialandServicesFirmsconductedyearlyonapanelofenterprises:1)thebiasowingtopanelattritioncausedbythedifferencesbetweenunitsenteringandexitingthesampleandthoseparticipatingmoreregularlyinthesurvey;2)thebiascreatedbydelaysinthedistributionaldataonthereferencepopulation,neededforcomputingthesurveyweights.Bycomparinganarrayofperformanceindicators(availableinanintegrateddatabase)fortheAirmsregularlyparticipatingagainstthoseparticipatingmoreerratically,weAindthatpanelattritionhasalimitedeffectontheofAicialaggregateestimates,sincetheyaredeterminedbylargerAirms,whichtendtoparticipateregularlyinthesurvey.SmallerAirms’erraticparticipation,thecomparativelyworseperformanceoftheunitsexitingthesampleandthehigher-than-averageageoftheAirmsinthesamplecallforacarefulassessmentoftheestimatesthatarenotinAluencedbyAirmsize.Finally,forthelessrecentyearswemeasuretheextenttowhichtheestimatesvaryifweusetherevisedinformationonthereferencepopulation,andweAindthatthedelaysinupdatingsigniAicantlybiastheaggregateestimatesonlywhenthepopulationsizeishighlyunstable,withnegligibleeffectsontheestimateslessdependentonAirmsize.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly
No.328:Monetary aggregates in Italy since 1861: evidence from a new dataset
(April2016)
FedericoBarbielliniAmidei,RiccardoDeBonis,
MiriaRocchelli,AlessandraSalvio,Massimiliano
Stacchini
ThepaperbuildsannualtimeseriesofItalianmonetaryaggregates.WhilepreviouscontributionsfocusedoncertainperiodsinItaly’seconomichistory,ourworkcoverstheyears1861-2014uninterruptedly;weimprovethequalityoftheexistingtimeseriesandprovidefurtherdetails
onthecomponentsofaggregates.Thepaperalsodocumentsthesourcesandmethodsusedfortheestimates.Finally,wediscussthekeytrendsoftheaggregatessince1861andpresentaneconometricanalysisofmoneydemand.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly
No.327:Foreign direct investment and international trade in services: an
analysis based on balance of
payments microdata (April2016)
ChiaraBentivogli,FrancescoBripi,AndreaCarboni,
LucaCherubini,EleonoraLaurenza,Andrea
Locatelli,PaolaMonti,ElisabettaNencioni,Valeria
PellegriniandDiegoScalise
ThispaperpresentssomeanalysesofFDIandinternationaltradeinservicesbasedonmicrodatausedtoproducebalanceofpaymentsstatistics.ThemicrodatarevealandmitigatesomeinformativelimitationsofofAicialstatistics,whichnolongersatisfythegrowingneedforinternationalizationdata.TheanalysisshowsthatbothFDIandtradeinservicesarehighlyconcentratedbysizeandgeographiclocation;moreover,internationaltradeinservicesalsoinvolvesAirmsinthemanufacturingindustry,whileFDImicrodataindicateasigniAicantpresenceoflargecompaniesandholdings.Indeed,themicrodatashowthatinternationalizationoftenaffectsindividualAirmsindifferentwaysandisthereforesuitedtobeingstudiedfromanumberofperspectives;thisopensupnewpossibilitiesfortheempiricalanalysisofinternationalization.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly
No.326:Easier said than done? Reforming the prudential treatment of banks’
sovereign exposures (April2016)
MicheleLanotte,GiacomoManzelli,AnnaMaria
Rinaldi,MarcoTabogaandPietroTommasino
Intheaftermathoftheeuro-areasovereigndebtcrisis,severalcommentatorshavequestionedthefavourabletreatmentofbanks’sovereignexposuresallowedbythecurrentprudentialrules.Inthispaper,weassesstheoveralldesirabilityofreformingtheserules.Weconcludethatthemicroeconomicandmacroeconomiccostsofareformcouldbesizeable,whilethebeneAitsareuncertain.Furthermore,wehighlightconsiderable
Latest occasional papers
http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0329/QEF_329_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0328/QEF_328_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0327/QEF_327_16.pdf?language_id=1
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implementationissues.SpeciAically,itiswidelyagreedthatcreditratingsofsovereignsissuedbyratingagenciespresentimportantdrawbacks,butsoundalternativesstillneedtobefound;wearguethatconsiderationcouldbegiventotheuseofquantitativeindicatorsofAiscalsustainability,similartothoseprovidedbyinternationalbodiessuchastheIMFortheEuropeanCommission.Fulltext(pdf)
No.325:Hiring incentives and/or �iring cost reduction? Evaluating the
impact of the 2015 policies on the
Italian labour market
(March2016)
PaoloSestitoandElianaViviano
In2015Italyadoptedtwodifferentpoliciesaimedatreducinglabourmarketdualismandfosteringemployment:agenerouspermanenthiringsubsidyandnewregulationsloweringAiringcostsandmakingthemlessuncertain.UsingmicrodataforVenetoandexploitingsomedifferencesinthedesignofthepolicies,weevaluatetheimpactofeachmeasure.BothcontributedtodoublethemonthlyrateofconversionofAixed-termjobsintopermanentpositions.Moreover,around40percentofnewtotalgrosshireswithpermanentjobcontractsoccurredbecauseoftheincentives,whereas5percentcanbeattributedtothenewAiringregulations.ThenewAiringrulesalsomadeAirmslessreluctanttoofferpermanentjobpositionstoyetuntestedworkers.ThepossibilityofbeneAittingfromtheincentivesincaseofaconversionalsoboostedtemporaryhiring,asitallowedAirmstotestforthequalityofajobmatch.Fulltext(pdf)
No.324:When local banks lend to local communities: evidence from Italy
(2007-2014) (March2016)
MariaLuciaStefani,ValerioVacca(coordinators),
DanieleCoin,SilviaDelPrete,CristinaDemma,
MaddalenaGalardo,IconioGarrì,SauroMocetti,
DarioPellegrino
Duringtheperiod2007-2014,whentheItalianAinancialsystemwashitbytwoseverecrises,Italianlocalbanksincreasedtheirpresenceonlocalmarkets,expandingtheirbranchnetwork
whileotherbanknetworksshrank,andbolsteredtheirmarketshareofloanstohouseholdsandAirms.Atthesametime,thequalityoftheircreditworsenedmarkedly,especiallyforthosebanksthatattheonsetofthecrisishadsubstantialexposurestonon-traditionalcustomers(inparticularlargeAirms)andtherealestatesector.Theriseinloans’riskiness,whichaffectedthebalancesheetequilibriaoftheselocalbanks,withagrowingnumberofthembecomingdistressed,andthelargerdeteriorationofloans’qualityinsouthernregionsshowthatlocalbanks’lendingactivityispronetorisks,which,ifnotadequatelytackled,mayultimatelyoutweighthebeneAitsofcustomerproximity.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly
No.323:Assessing �inancial stability risks arising from the real estate
market in Italy (March2016)
FedericaCiocchetta,WandaCornacchia,Roberto
FeliciandMicheleLoberto
WeprovideananalyticalframeworkforassessingAinancialstabilityrisksarisingfromtherealestatesectorinItaly.Thisframeworkconsistsoftwoblocks:threecomplementaryearlywarningmodels(EWMs)andabroadsetofindicatorsrelatedtotherealestatemarket,tocreditandtohouseholds.WefocusseparatelyonhouseholdsandonAirmsengagedinconstruction,managementandinvestmentservicesintherealestatesector.SinceinItalytherehavebeennorealestate-relatedsystemicbankingcrises,asvulnerabilityindicatorweconsideracontinuousindicatorrepresentedbytheratiobetweentheannualAlowofbaddebtsrelatedtotherealestatesectorandbanks’capitalandreserves.WecontributetotherecentliteratureonEWMsbyimplementingaBayesianModelAveraging(BMA)basedonlinearregressionmodelswithacontinuousdependentvariableofvulnerabilityandanorderedlogitmodelwithadiscretedependentvariableofvulnerabilityclasses.Bothmodelsexhibitgoodpredictiveabilities.BasedontheBMAprojectionsfortheperiodfromthethirdquarterof2015tothesecondquarterof2016,bankingvulnerabilityrelatedtotherealestatesectorisexpectedtograduallydecline.Fulltext(pdf)
Latest occasional papers
http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0326/QEF_326_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0325/QEF_325_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0324/QEF_324_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0323/QEF_323_16.pdf?language_id=1
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No.322:Stitching together the global �inancial safety net (March2016)
EddDenbee,CarstenJungandFrancescoPaternò
FinancialglobalisationbringsanumberofbeneAitsbutcanalsoincreasetheriskofAinancialcrisis.Inrecentyears,toreducetheseriskstostability,countrieshavereformedAinancialregulation,enhancedframeworksforcentralbankliquidityprovisionanddevelopednewelements,andincreasedtheresourcesoftheglobalAinancialsafetynet(GFSN).ThetraditionalGFSNconsistedofcountries’ownforeignexchangereserveswiththeIMFactingasabackstop.ButsincetheglobalAinancialcrisistherehavebeenanumberofnewarrangementsaddedtotheGFSN,inparticulartheexpansionofswaplinesbetweencentralbanksandregionalAinancingarrangements(RFAs).ThenewlookGFSNismorefragmentedthaninthepast,withmultipletypesofliquidityinsuranceandindividualcountriesandregionshavingaccesstodifferentsizeandtypesofAinancialsafetynets.ThispaperAindsthatthecomponentsoftheGFSNarenotfullysubstitutable.WearguethatwhileswaplinesandRFAscanplayanimportantroleintheGFSNtheyarenotasubstituteforhavingastrong,wellresourced,IMFatthecentreofit.ByrunningaseriesofstressscenariosweAindthatforallbutthemostseverecrisisscenarios,thecurrentresourcesoftheGFSNarelikelytobesufAicient.However,thisAindingreliesupontheIMF’soveralllevelofresources(includingbothpermanentandtemporary)beingmaintainedattheircurrentlevel.Fulltext(pdf)
No.321:The evolution of the anchoring of in�lation expectations
(March2016)
InesBuonoandSaraFormai
WeinvestigatethedegreeofanchoringininAlationexpectationsfordifferentadvancedeconomiesusingdatafromprofessionalforecasters'surveys.WedeAineexpectationsasanchoredwhenmovementsinshort-runexpectationsdonottriggermovementsinexpectationsatlongerhorizons.Usingtime-varyingparameterregressions,weprovide
evidencethatanchoringhasvariednoticeablyacrosseconomiesandovertime.Inparticular,weAindthatstartingfromthesecondhalfof2008,inAlationexpectationsintheeuroarea,unlikeintheUSandintheUK,haveshownsignsofade-anchoring.Fulltext(pdf)
No.320:Short-term employment forecasts based on administrative data on
hirings and terminations
(March2016)
SabrinaFerretti,AndreaFilipponeandGiacinto
Micucci
ThisstudyfocusesonthediscrepanciesinthedataonemploymenttrendsthathaverecentlyemergedbetweenthatonhiringsandterminationsprovidedbytheMinistryofLabourandSocialPolicies,andworkforcesurveydata,releasedbyIstat.SinceJanuary2015theformerhasrecordedasubstantialincreaseinhirings,mostlyofpermanentemployees,whileaccordingtothelatter,employmentremainedsubstantiallystableintheAirstmonthsoftheyearandonlystartedtoincreaseinthesecondquarter.Thisispartlyexplainedbythedifferencesinthetypesofstatistics.NewjobsstartingatthebeginningofMarch,forexample,areincludedamongthehiringsfortheAirstquarterintheadministrativedata,butonlycontributebyonethirdtotheincreaseinaverageemploymentintheperiod;thesecontracts,iftheycontinueovertime,arenotincludedintheaveragedatauntilthesecondquarter.Thisstudyproposestousethistemporalcorrelationtocreateasimplestatisticalmodelthatexplainstheaforementioneddiscrepancies,andforecastsayear-on-yeargrowthofpayrollemployeesof1.2and1.8percentinthethirdandfourthquartersofthisyearcomparedwiththesameperiodof2014.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly
No.319:Over-indebtedness in Italy: how widespread and persistent is it?
(March2016)
GiovanniD’AlessioandStefanoIezzi
Thepurposeofthispaperistoexaminethemeasuresofover-indebtednessproposedin
Latest occasional papers
http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0322/QEF_322_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0321/QEF_321_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0320/QEF_320_16.pdf?language_id=1
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theliteratureandtoapplythemtotheItaliancasefrom2008to2014byusingthewidearrayofinformationavailablefromtheBankofItaly’ssurveyonhouseholds.Thenumerousmeasuresofover-indebtednessarecriticallyanalysedfrombothacross-sectionalandahistoricalperspective.Thepanelalsoenablesustoanalysethetransitionintoandoutofover-indebtedness.Moreover,byusingtheEurosystem’sHouseholdFinanceandConsumptionSurvey(HFCS),wecancomparetheover-indebtednessofItalianhouseholdswiththatofothereuro-areacountries.Thepaperalsoaddressestheissueofthemeasurementerrorsthatcouldbiasboththelevelofover-indebtednessandestimatesofthetransitionintoandoutofit.Fulltext(pdf)
No.318:Labour, pro�it and housing rent shares in Italian GDP: long-run
trends and recent patterns
(March2016)
RobertoTorrini
TheshareoflabourincreasedintheAirsthalfofthe1970s,declinedslowlytoits1960slevelin2001,andsincethenhasbeenrising.Between1975and2001,thedeclineinthelaboursharewasdueinparttotherecoveryinproAits,andinparttoasteadyincreaseinhousingrentsonGDP,to13percentofvalueadded(5%in1975).Netofhousingrents,theshareofproAitsfelltoahistoricallowduringthegreatrecession.Inthebusinesssectornetofhousing,recoveryofthelabourshare,magniAiedbytherecentrecession,wasevidentinmanufacturingandindustriesotherthanregulatedsectors(energy,transport,communicationsandAinance),whereprivatizationsandchangestoregulationprovokedamarkeddropinthelabourshareinthelate1990s.Itentativelyexplainthetrendreversalinthelabourshareasduetoacompressioninthemark-upsonmarginalcostsandthedifAicultyexperiencedbyItalianAirmstoberewardedfortheirinnovationeffortsinamorecompetitiveenvironment.Fulltext(pdf)
No.317:Firms that went out of business during the crisis (March2016)
SabrinaFerretti,AndreaFilipponeandGiacinto
Micucci
ThispaperanalysestheItaliancompaniesthatAiledforbankruptcyorunderwentvoluntaryliquidationbetween2008and2012andidentiAiesthemaincharacteristicsofthisphenomenon.TheeconometricanalysisbasedonAirms’balancesheetdatasuggeststhattheprobabilityofgoingoutofbusinesswasgreaterforsmallerandyoungercompanies.Othercharacteristicsbeingequal,suchassize,sectorandgeographicallocation,thelikelihoodofaAirminitiatingbankruptcyproceedingswasmorestronglycorrelatedwithimbalancesinitsAinancialstructuresuchasahighleverageratio,whileaAirm’slikelihoodofoptingforvoluntaryliquidationwasinAluencedtoagreaterextentbylowproAitability.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly
No.316:The ‘concordato preventivo’ in Italian corporate bankruptcy law:
a policy evaluation (March2016)
ClaudioCastelli,GiacintoMicucci,GiacomoRodano
andGuidoRomano
From2005to2013Italiancorporatebankruptcylawunderwentaseriesofreforms.Oneofthegoalswastoimprovethein-courtrestructuringproceedings(concordatopreventivo),mainlyasawaytopromotethecontinuityofdistressedbutstillviablecompanies.Thereformshavesucceededinbroadeningtheuseofrestructuringproceedings,eventakingintoaccounttheeffectsoftheeconomiccrisis.Theincreasehasbeenparticularlylargesincetheintroductionoftheconcordatoinbianco,whichallowstheAirmstopostponethepresentationoftheirrecoveryplan.Thereformshavethusimprovedthelikelihoodofsurvivalofdistressedbutstillviablecompanies.Nevertheless,onlyasmallproportionofcompanies(approximately4.5percent)isstillactiveafterrestructuring,themainpurposeofwhichremainstoprovideanalternativeformofliquidation,entailinga
Latest occasional papers
http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0319/QEF_319_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0318/QEF_318_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0317/QEF_317_16.pdf?language_id=1
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reducedroleforcourts,withrespecttobankruptcy.Theuseofrestructuringproceduresisduetothelengthofbankruptcyproceedingsinthecourts,aswellastothestructuralcharacteristicsofcompanies(largerproportionofAixedassets)andtheircreditrelations(smallerproportionofcollateralizedloans).Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly
No.315:With (more than) a little help from my bank. Loan-to-value ratios and
access to mortgages in Italy
(February2016)
DaniloLiberatiandValerioVacca
Thispaperprovidesaframeworktolookattheaffordabilitybothoftheregularrepaymentofhousingdebt(anincomeconstraint)andoftheinitialdeposit(abudgetconstraint).AnalysisofthemicrodataonItalianhouseholdsintheperiod2006-2012indicatesthattheimprovedcapabilityofhouseholdstomaintaintheirmortgagerepaymentswascounterbalancedbytighterbudgetconstraints.Theframeworkcanbeemployedasatooltoassesstheimpactofmacroprudentialpolicies,suchascapsonloan-to-valueratios(LTVs),onthepoolofhouseholdswhocanaccessmortgageloanswithoutrunningintoAinancialdistress:thelevelandtheslopeofthe‘mortgageaffordabilitycurve’,thecurvethatshowstheshareofeligiblehouseholdsatdifferentLTVsprovidedbythebanks,changeovertimeanddependonthedeAinitionofhouseholdwealth.The2008-09crisisloweredtheshareofeligiblefamiliesathighLTVsandslightlyincreaseditatlowerLTVs.Moreover,weAindthatmortgagecapabilityworsenedmoreforthemiddleclassandthatthedeclineinItalianLTVsacrosstheperiodwasmainlysupplydriven,whereashouseholdpreferencesbarelychanged.Finally,alternativepoliciesaffectingmortgageaffordabilitydisplayheterogeneouseffectsbothinincreasinghouseholds’marketparticipationandinfosteringsaferlendingpolicies.Fulltext(pdf)
No.314:The tax burden on banks over the period 2006-2014 (February2016)
GiacomoRicotti,MarcoBurroni,Vincenzo
Cuciniello,ElenaPadovani,ElenaPisanoand
StefaniaZotteri
FollowingtheestablishmentoftheSingleSupervisoryMechanism(SSM),concernsabouthavingalevelplayingAieldbecomemoreimportantduetotheheterogeneityinbanktaxationrulesacrossEurope:measuringthetaxburdencanprovideaAirstroughmeasureoftheextentofheterogeneityacrosscountries.AfterareviewofthemaindifferencesinbankstaxationbetweenItaly,France,Germany,SpainandtheUK,thepaperprovidesestimatesforthetaxburdenanddeferredtaxassetsinthesecountriesovertheyears2006-2014;theimpactofdifferencesintaxationonbankproAitabilityisalsoexamined.Moreover,thepapercarriesoutamorein-depthanalysisofItalianbanksbyconsideringbothindividualbalancesheetdataandaggregatetaxreturndata.TheimpactoftaxmeasuresonAinancialstabilityandonproAitabilityisfurtheranalysed.Thecomparativeanalysispointstoawideheterogeneityacrosscountriesinthetaxtreatmentofthebankingsector.ThissuggeststhatitwouldbeadvantageoustoexplorepossiblewaystomakethetaxsystemsofthecountriesparticipatingintheSSMmorehomogeneous;aAirststepcouldbetoharmonizetaxbases.Fulltext(pdf)
No.313:Local policies for innovation: the case of technology districts in Italy
(February2016)
FedericaBertamino,RaffaelloBronzini,MarcoDe
MaggioandDavideRevelli
Inthispaperwestudyapolicytoolcalledtechnologydistricts,implementedinItalyoverthelastdecadetofosterlocalinnovationactivity.First,weexaminethecharacteristicsoftechnologydistrictsandthoseoftheAirmswithinthem.Next,weassesstheperformanceofdistrictAirms.WeAindthatinthesouthernregionstechnologydistrictsaremorenumerousbutsmallerthanthoselocatedintheCentre-North,arepoorlydiversiAiedfromasectorialpointofviewandmoredistantfromtheeconomicstructureofthearea.WeAindthattheAirmsthatdidjoinadistricthad
Latest occasional papers
http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0316/QEF_316_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0315/QEF_315_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0314/QEF_314_16.pdf?language_id=1
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previouslybeen,onaverage,larger,moreinnovativeandproAitable,andalsoshowhigherleveragethantheothers.OurresultsshowthatoverallafterthebirthofadistricttheperformanceoftheAirmsthatjoineditdidnotdiffersigniAicantlyfromthatofsimilarAirmsthatdidnot.Fulltext(pdf)
No.312:Internal controls in the Public Administration: current problems
and future challenges
(February2016)
AnnaPeta
Atthebeginningofthe1990s,inlinewithtrendsinotherEuropeancountries,theneedtoincreasetheefAiciencyofadministrativeactivityresultedinlegislativeinitiativestoextendsomeofthemanagementtoolsdevelopedintheprivatesectortothePublicAdministration.Amongtheseinstruments,animportantrolewasassignedtointernalcontrols.Overtwentyyearssincetheirintroduction,thefunctioningofpublicinternalcontrolsstilldisplaysseveralcriticalaspects.ThroughacomparativeassessmentwithotherEuropeanmodels,thispaperhighlightstheproblemsaffectingthelegalframeworkofItalianpublicinternalcontrols,suchasthelackofaclearlyidentiAiedinternalauditstructure;thepaperalsopointsoutthatcontrolsfocusalmostexclusivelyonformalratherthansubstantiveaspects.Moreover,theresultsofpastperformanceappraisalactivitiesshowthattheprinciplesof"accountability"and"transparency"arenotwidelyappliedwithinthePublicAdministration,thusunderminingtheeffectivenessandusefulnessofinternalcontrols.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly
No.311:The management of non-performing loans: a survey among
the main Italian banks
(February2016)
LuisaCarpinelli,GiuseppeCascarino,Silvia
GiacomelliandValerioVacca
ThisstudypresentstheresultsofasurveycarriedoutbytheBankofItalyin2015ontheefAiciencyofcreditrecoveryproceduresundertakenbythemainItalianbankinggroups.Therecoveryrateforliquidationsintheyears2011-2014wasslightlyabove40percent,andthe
largestshareoftherecoverywasobtainedwithintheAirstAiveyearsfromthestartoftheprocedure.Fouryearsafterthedebtrestructuringsbegan,almosttwothirdsarestillunderway.Theaverageageofliquidationsattheendof2014wastwicethatofdebtrestructuringsandeightpercentagepointsmoreofloansbeingrestructuredarecollateralizedthanthosebeingliquidated.In2014themanagementofnon-performingloansabsorbed2.8percentofbanks’operatingcosts,alargersharethaninpreviousyears.Thestudyfoundnotonlydifferencesinthesystemsadoptedbythebanksformanagingnon-performingloansbutalsodifferencesintheamountofinformationavailableonthetopicscoveredbythesurvey.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly
No.310:Incentives and evaluation of public managers in Italy
(February2016)
RobertaOcchilupoandLuciaRizzica
WeanalysethecurrentlegislationonincentivesforpublicmanagersinItalyandthemostrecentdevelopmentsinthesector.InthelightofthemainAindingsofeconomictheory,weidentifythemostcriticalissuesaffectingthedesignofanoptimalsystemofincentives.Thesearetheexistenceofmulti-principleagencyproblemsinvolvingpublicmanagers;thedifAicultyofobservingandmeasuringtheoutputofthepublicsector;andtheexcessivelimitationsonmanagers’autonomyarisingfromtheneedtorespecttheruleoflaw.Alongthesethreelines,weanalysethepublicmanagementreformsthathavebeenintroducedinItalysincethe1990sandevaluatetheireffectivenessbymeansofanempiricalanalysisofthepremiumspaidtopublicmanagersin2012.ThisrevealsasubstantialAlatteningofthepremiumspaidandhighlightsthatonlytheageofthemanagerandnootherindividualcharacteristics,suchasprofessionalexperienceorspeciAicskills,signiAicantlyaffectstheamountreceived.Weconcludethattheineffectivenessofthecurrentsystemofincentivesforpublicmanagersisduemainlytotheblanketapplicationofthesamerulestoallorganizations,toinadequatelyidentiAiedobjectives,andtoexcessivelimitationsonmanagers’autonomy.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly
Latest occasional papers
http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0313/QEF_313_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0312/QEF_312_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0311/QEF_311_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0310/QEF_310_16.pdf?language_id=1
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No.309:E-Government in Italy: current issues and future perspectives
(February2016)
CarloMariaArpaia,PasqualeFerro,WalterGiuzio,
GiorgioIvaldiandDanielaMonacelli
Thepaperexaminesthedevelopmentofe-GovernmentinItalyanditscriticalaspects.ThemainobstaclesliebothincitizenslaggingbehindintheirdigitalskillsandthefactthatthepublicsectorseemsunabletofullyexploitthebeneAitsofcomputerization.ICTusebythepublicsectorismainlydirectedatinternalprocessesandlessattheprovisionofservices.Moreover,thedigitalizationprocesshasoftenoverlookedthe‘networking’capabilityofpublicinformationsystems,havingeffectivelybeenlefttotheinitiativeofindividualinstitutionsinaframeworkofweakgovernanceatcentrallevel.Digitalizationiscurrentlymovingtowardsatop-downapproachaimingatsolutionsextendableoverallthepublicsector.Itrelieson“system-wideprojects”,whichareonanationalscale,havealargeimpactontheindividualentities’applications,andAixstandardsforinteroperabilityamongsystems.Thisprocessmustbeaccompanied,however,by‘ownership’oftheimplementationbyindividualentities,whichisessentialtotriggerthemanagementandorganizationalchangesneededtotakefulladvantageofICT.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly
No.308:The debt of Italian non-�inancial �irms: an international
comparison (February2016)
AntonioDeSocioandPaoloFinaldiRusso
Intherun-uptotheAinancialcrisisItalianAirmssigniAicantlyincreasedtheirdebtinabsolutetermsandinrelationtoequityandGDP.ThepositivegapinAirms’leveragebetweenItalyandothereuro-areacountrieshaswidenedinrecentyears,despitetheoutstandingdebtofItalianAirmshasdecreasedsince2011.InthisworkwedocumentthemagnitudeofthisgapusingbothaggregatemacrodataandAirm-levelinformation.WeAindthat,controllingforseveralAirm-speciAiccharacteristics(i.e.age,proAitability,assettangibility,assetliquidity,turnovergrowth),theleverageofItalianAirmsisabout10percentage
pointshigherthaninothereuroareacountries.DifferencesaresystematicallylargeramongmicroandsmallAirms,whereastheyaresmallandweaklysigniAicantforAirmswithassetsabove300millioneuros.Fulltext(pdf)
No.307:Investment and investment �inancing in Italy: some evidence
at the macro level (February2016)
ClaireGiordano,MarcoMarinucciandAndrea
Silvestrini
WeanalysethedevelopmentsofinvestmentandinvestmentAinancinginItalysince1995,basedondatafromnationalaccountsandtheAlowoffunds.TheexceptionalfallininvestmentaftertheglobalAinancialcrisisin2007concernedallinstitutionalsectorsandassetcategories.However,appropriatelydeAlateddatahighlightthemoreintensefallofhouseholdcapitalexpenditure.Consistently,ontheassetside,constructionwasoneofthemosthard-hitcapitalgoods;ICTandintangibleinvestmentinsteadweatheredthedoublerecessionbetter.FocusingoninvestmentAinancing,theeruptionofthecrisiscausedamajorcontractionintheavailabilityofexternalAinancefornon-Ainancialcorporationsandhouseholds.Long-termloanstonon-Ainancialcorporationsbecamemoreimportant,crowdingouttheirshort-termcounterparts.AlsotheweightofdebtsecuritiesincreasedsigniAicantly,especiallyafter2008.Fulltext(pdf)
Latest occasional papers
http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0309/QEF_309_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0308/QEF_308_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0307/QEF_307_16.pdf?language_id=1
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January 2016
No.306:EuroareasigniAicantbanks:maindifferencesandrecentperformanceEmiliaBonaccorsidiPatti,RobertoFelici
andFedericoMariaSignoretti
No.305:Determinantsofthemovementsintheeuro-dollarexchangerateduringthesovereigndebtcrisisAlessioAnzuini,MartinaCecioniand
StefanoNeri
No.304:Valuechainsandthegreatrecession:evidencefromItalianandGermanAirmsAntonioAccetturoandAnnaGiunta
No.303:HeterogeneousfallinproductivecapacityinItalianindustryduringthe2008-13double-diprecessionAndreaLocatelli,LiberoMonteforteand
GiordanoZevi
No.302:AninquiryintomanufacturingcapacityinItalyafterthedouble-diprecessionLiberoMonteforteandGiordanoZevi
No.301:Howdoesmultinationalproductionaffectthemeasurementofcompetitiveness?StefanoFederico
December 2015
No.300:Prudentialpolicyattimesofstagnation:aviewfromthetrenchesPiergiorgioAlessandriandFabioPanetta
No.299:Financeandcreativedestruction:evidenceforItalyFrancescaLottiandFrancescoManaresi
November 2015
No.298:NetemploymentgrowthbyAirmsizeandageinItalyFrancescoManaresi
No.297:WhydoAirmshireonaAixed-termbasis?EvidencefromlongitudinaldataFabrizioColonnaandGiuliaGiupponi
Other recent occasional papers
http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0306/QEF_306_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0305/QEF_305_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0304/QEF_304_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0303/QEF_303_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0302/QEF_302_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0301/QEF_301_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2015-0300/QEF_300_15.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2015-0299/QEF_299_15.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2015-0298/QEF_298_15.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2015-0297/QEF_297_15.pdf?language_id=1
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No.36: Historicalarchiveofcreditin
Italy(January2016)
SandraNatoli,PaoloPiselli,IvanTrigliaand
FrancescoVercelli
ThispaperpresentstheArchivioStoricodelCreditoinItalia(ASCI),acomprehensivedatabaseofbalancesheetdatafornearly2,600
Italianbanksonanannualbasisfortheperiod
1890-1973.Theworkdrawsonearlierwork
carriedoutbytheBankofItalyfortheperiod
1890-1936(publishedin1996)andincorporates
informationcollectedbytheBankofItalyaspart
ofitsbankingsupervisionactivityfrom1936
onwards.ASCIissuitableforanalyzingavariety
ofcreditphenomena,giventhehigh
representativenessofthebankingsystemandthe
largeamountofbalancesheetdataavailable.
Basedonthisnewdataset,weprovideasketchof
theevolutionoftheItalianbankingsystem
between1890and1973,exploringthe
compositionofthebalancesheetsacrossbank
categories,theregionaldistributionofbanksand
thedegreeofconcentration.
Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly
No.35: Regionalgrowthwithspatial
dependence:acasestudyon
earlyItalianindustrialization
(January2016)
CarloCiccarelliandStefanoFachin
Thispaperestimatesaconditionalβ-convergencemodeloflaborproductivitygrowthinItaly’smanufacturingindustryduring
1871-1911,accountingforspatialdependence.
Theempiricalevidenceisbasedonarecentsetof
dataatprovincial(NUTS3)levelon
manufacturingvalueaddedat1911prices,anda
newsetofdataonhumanandsocialcapital,
politicalparticipation,andinfrastructures.By
focusingonacountryandatimewhenthe
agglomerationforcesandspillovereffects
advocatedbytheneweconomicgeographywere
onlystartingtooperate,wecaninvestigatea
particularlyinterestingcasestudy.Ourresults
suggestthathumancapital,acooperativeculture,
andinitialproductivityinneighboringprovinces
canexplainmuchofthegeographicalvariability
ofproductivitygrowthinmanufacturingin
nineteenth-centuryItaly.
Fulltext(pdf)
EconomicHistoryworkingpaper
GDPforItaly’sHistory.AUser’sManual
(September2015)
AlbertoBaf!igi
AsameasureofeconomicgrowthGDP(anditscomponents)needtobehandledwithcare,fortheinterpretativefallaciestowhichtheycan
lead,especiallyoverlongperiodsofhistory.The
bookdevotesamplespacetothedangersthat
economichistoriansusingquantitativeevidence
normallyface,relatedbothtotheconceptual
contentofthedatausedintheirstudiesandtothe
difOicultyinextractinginformationfromoldand
disparatehistoricalsources.Historicalseriesfor
Italyhavebeenreconstructedoverthelast40
yearsbydifferentscholars–someofthem
memberofourresearchgroup–using
heterogeneousmethodsandreferringtodifferent
timerangesandsectors.Inordertoobtainnew
nationalaccountsseriesfrom1861tothepresent,
wehadtoreconcilethevariousavailableseries
andtranslatethemintothelanguageofanational
accountsstandard.Thesourcesandmethodsused
arethoroughlydescribedinthebookandare
accessible,intheformofdataspreadsheets,inthe
Historicalstatisticssectionofthewebsiteofthe
BankofItaly.
Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly
HistoricalseriesoftheBankofItaly
http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/quaderni-storia/2016-0036/QSE-36.PDF?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/quaderni-storia/2016-0035/QSE-35.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/collana-storica/pil-storia-italia/index.html
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No.21: Globalvaluechains:newevidence
andimplications(March2016)
CarloCiccarelliandStefanoFachin
Theworkshopentitled‘GlobalValueChains:newevidenceandimplications’washeldinRomeonthe22ndofJune2015.Theworkshop
presentedtheresultsofaresearchproject
carriedoutbyagroupofeconomistsfromthe
Bank’sDirectorateGeneralforEconomics,
StatisticsandResearch.
TheOirstsessionfocusesonthestructureof
globalvaluechainsandhowtheyfunctioninthe
euroareaeconomies.Thesecondandthird
sessionsexaminetheimplicationsofglobalvalue
chainsoncompetitivenessandeconomic
performance,respectively.Thelastsession
concentratesonspeciOiccountries,regionsand
Oirms.
Fulltext(pdf)
No.20: BeyondtheAusterityDispute:New
PrioritiesforFiscalPolicy(March
2016)
TheworkshopaimedatmovingforwardtheOiscalpolicydebate,whichinthecrisisyearswasunavoidablyfocusedonhowtoregainOiscal
credibilityandtoimplementsizableandfast
consolidationplans.Fourmainthemeshavebeen
proposedforthedebateduringtheworkshop.
First,thetwo-waylinkbetweenOiscal
consolidationandinequality,withtheideathat
consolidationeffortscannotbesuccessfulinthe
longruniftheyentailasociallyunsustainable
increaseininequality.
Second,theimportanceofpreserving,evenin
contextsinwhichtheOiscalpolicystanceis
necessarilyrestrictive,growth-enhancingpublic
investments.
Third,thechallengesposedtoOiscalmanagement
byalowinOlationcontext,takingintoaccount
thatasubduedpricedynamicsnotonlymakes
therealburdenofdebtheavier,butitalsohas
subtleeffects,atleastintheshortterm,on
severalbudgetaryitems.Finally,theneedfora
simplerandmoreappropriatesetofrulesforthe
governanceoftheEMU.Thelattertopicwasalso
theobjectofthehigh-levelpanelattheendofthe
workshop.Whiledifferencesinemphasis
emergedamongthepanellists,theyagreedthat
thecurrentframeworkcouldbestreamlined,and
–moreimportantly–thatnosetofrulescan
workiftrustandasenseofsharingacommon
objectiveisnotrebuiltamongtheMemberStates.
Fulltext(pdf)
WorkshopsandConferencesseries
http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/collana-seminari-convegni/2016-0021/atti_workshop_GVCs.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/collana-seminari-convegni/2016-0020/Beyond_the_Austerity_Dispute_-_New_Priorities_for_Fiscal_Policy.pdf?language_id=1
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and books by Bank of Italy staff Authors’ names in boldface: Bank of Italy
Fulllistsince1990
Forthcoming
Albanese G., G. de Blasio andP. Sestito,“MyParentsTaughtMe.EvidenceonTheFamilyTransmissionofValues”,JournalofPopulationEconomics.(WPNo.955)
Andini M.andG. de Blasio,“LocalDevelopmentthatMoneycannotBuy:Italy’sContrattidiProgramma”,JournalofEconomicGeography.(WPNo.915)
Bonaccorsi di Patti E.andE. Sette,“DidtheSecuritizationMarketFreezeAffectBankLendingDuringtheFinancialCrisis?EvidencefromaCreditRegister”,JournalofFinancialIntermediation.(WPNo.848)
BragoliD.,M. RigonandF.Zanetti,“OptimalInAlationWeightsintheEuroArea”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking.
Bripi F.,“TheRoleofRegulationonEntry:EvidenceFromtheItalianProvinces”,WorldBankEconomicReview.(WPNo.932)
Bronzini R.andP. Piselli,“TheImpactofR&DSubsidiesonFirmInnovation”,ResearchPolicy.(WPNo.960)
Burlon L.,“PublicExpenditureDistribution,Voting,andGrowth”,JournalofPublicEconomicTheory(WPNo.961)
Caccavaio M., L. Carpinelli, G. MarinelliandE. Sette,“ShockTransmissionthroughInternationalBanks:theItalianCase”,IMFEconomicReview.(OPNo.232)
CaiY.,K.Judd,T.Lontzek,V. MichelangeliandC.Su,“Non-linearProgrammingMethodforDynamicProgramming”,MacroeconomicDynamics.
CalzaA.andA. Zaghini,“Shoe-LeatherCostsintheEuroAreaandtheForeignDemandforEuroBanknotes”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking.(WPNo.1039)
Casiraghi M., E. Gaiotti, L. RodanoandA. Secchi,“ECBUnconventionalMonetaryPolicyandtheItalianEconomyDuringtheSovereignDebtCrisis”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking.(OPNo.203)
Coin D.andV. Vacca,“Non-BankFinanceforFirms:theRoleofPrivateEquityFundsinItaly”,EmpiricalEconomics.
de Blasio G., D. Fantino andG. Pellegrini,“EvaluatingtheImpactofInnovationIncentives:EvidencefromanUnexpectedShortageofFunds”,IndustrialandCorporateChange.(WPNo.792)
Di Nino V.andI. Faiella,“ShaleFuels:TheSolutiontotheEnergyConundrum?”,inRossellaBardazzi,MariaGraziaPazienza,AlbertoTonini(eds.):
EuropeanEnergyandClimateSecurity,Springer.(OPNo.205)
Liberati D., M. Marinucci andG. M. Tanzi,“ScienceandTechnologyParksinItaly:MainFeaturesandAnalysisoftheirEffectsonHostedFirms”,JournalofTechnologyTransfer.
MarcellinoM.,M. PorquedduandF. Venditti,“Short-TermGDPForecastingwithaMixedFrequencyDynamicFactorModelwithStochasticVolatility”,JournalofBusiness&EconomicStatistics.(WPNo.896)
Sette E., F.Ippolito,J.PeydroandA.Polo,“DoubleBankRunsandLiquidityRiskManagement”,JournalofFinancialEconomics.
Zinna G., “PricePressuresonUKRealRates:anEmpiricalInvestigation”,ReviewofFinance.(WPNo.968)
________________________________________________________
2015
AabergeR.andA. Brandolini,“MultidimensionalPovertyandInequality”,inCinA.B.AtkinsonandF.Bourguignon(eds.),HandbookofIncomeDistribution,Volume2A,Amsterdam,Elsevier.(WPNo.976)
AlbertazziU.,G. Eramo,L.Gambacorta,andC.Salleo,“AsymmetricInformationinSecuritization:AnEmpiricalAssessment”,JournalofMonetaryEconomics,v.71,pp.33-49.
Alessandri P.andB.Nelson,“Simplebanking:proAitabilityandtheyieldcurve”,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,v.47,1,pp.143-175.(WPNo.945)
AtkinsonA.andA. Brandolini,“UnveilingtheEthicsbehindInequalityMeasurement:Dalton’sContributiontoEconomics”,EconomicJournal,v.125,583,pp.209-234.
Barone G.,F.D’AcuntoandG.Narciso,“Telecracy:TestingforChannelsofPersuasion”,AmericanEconomicJournal:EconomicPolicy,v.7,2,pp.30-60.
Barone G.andG.Narciso,“OrganizedCrimeandBusinessSubsidies:WheredoestheMoneyGo?”,JournalofUrbanEconomics,v.86,pp.98-110.(WPNo.916)
Brandolini A.,“TheBigChill.ItalianFamilyBudgetsaftertheGreatRecession”,inC.FusaroandA.Kreppel(eds.),ItalianPolitics2013,NewYork,Berghahn.
Breda E., R. CapparielloandR. Zizza,“TheVerticalSpecializationinEurope:EvidencefromtheImportContentofExports”,inL.Lambertini(eds.)Firms’ObjectivesandInternalOrganisationinaGlobal
Economy:PositiveandNormativeAnalysis,PalgraveMacMillan.(WPNo.682)
Selection of Journal articles
http://www.bancaditalia.it/compiti/ricerca-economica/web_ricerca.zip?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0955/en_tema_955.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2013/2013-0915/en_tema_915.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2012/2012-0848/en_tema_848.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2013/2013-0932/en_tema_932.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0960/en_tema_960.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0961/en_tema_961.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2014-0232/QEF-232.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1039/en_tema_1039.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2013-0203/QEF_203.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2011/2011-0792/en_tema_792.pdfhttp://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2013/2013-0896/en_tema_896.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0968/968.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0976/en_tema_976.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0945/en_tema_945.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2013/2013-0916/en_tema_916.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2008/2008-0682/en_tema_682.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2013-0205/QEF_205.pdf?language_id=1
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Selection of Journal articles
Bugamelli M., S. FabianiandE. Sette,“TheAgeoftheDragon:TheEffectofImportsfromChinaonFirm-levelPrices”,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,v.47,6,pp.1091-1118.(WPNo.737)
Bugamelli M., E. GaiottiandE. Viviano,“DomesticandForeignSales:ComplementsorSubstitutes?”,EconomicsLetters,v.135,pp.46-51.(OPNo.248)
Bulligan G.,M.MarcellinoandF. Venditti,“ForecastingEconomicActivitywithTargetedPredictors”,InternationalJournalofForecasting,v.31,1,pp.188-206.(WPNo.847)
Caprioli F., “OptimalFiscalPolicyUnderLearning”,JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl,v.58,pp.101-124.
Cuciniello V. andF. Signoretti,“Banks,LoanRateMarkupandMonetaryPolicy”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking,v.11,3,pp.141-177.(WPNo.987)
DecarolisF.andG. Palumbo,“RenegotiationofPublicContracts:AnEmpiricalAnalysis”,EconomicsLetters,v.132,pp.77-81.
DegasperiP.andM. Stacchini, “Trust,FamilyBusinessesandFinancialIntermediation”,JournalofCorporateFinance,v.33,pp.293-316.
Depalo D., R. Giordano andE. Papapetrou,“Public-PrivateWageDifferentialsinEuroAreaCountries:EvidencefromQuantileDecompositionAnalysis”,EmpiricalEconomics,v.49,3,pp.985-1115.(WPNo.907)
Di Iasio G.,M.Gallegati,F.LilloandR.Mantegna,“TheInterlinkagesandSystemicRisk:Foreword”,QuantitativeFinance,v.15,4,pp.587-588.
Di Iasio G.,L. Infante,F.Pierobon,L.BargigliandF.Lillo,“TheMultiplexStructureofInterbankNetworks”,QuantitativeFinance,v.15,4,pp.673-691.
FratzscherM.,D.Rimec,L.SarnobandG.G. Zinna.,“TheScapegoatTheoryofExchangeRates:TheFirstTests”,JournalofMonetaryEconomics,v.70,1,pp.1-21.(WPNo.991)
Gobbi, G. andE. Sette,“RelationshipLendingDuringaFinancialCrisis”,JournaloftheEuropeanEconomicAssociation,v.13,3,pp.453-481.
GuisoL.andE. Viviano,“HowMuchCanFinancialLiteracyHelp?”,ReviewofFinance,v.19,4,pp.1347-1382.
LuciforaC.andM. Tonello,“CheatingandSocialInteractions.EvidencefromaRandomizedExperimentinaNationalEvaluationProgram”,JournalofEconomicBehavior&Organization,v.115,pp.45-66.
Makinen T. andB.Ohl,“InformationAcquisitionandLearningfromPricesOvertheBusinessCycle”,JournalofEconomicTheory,158B,pp.585–633.(WPNo.946)
Mercatanti A., “BayesianInferenceforRandomizedExperimentswithNoncomplianceandNonignorableMissingData”,inA.Paganoni,P.Secchi(eds.),Advancesincomplexdatamodellingandcomputationalmethodsinstatistics,Springer.
Michelangeli V.andM. Pietrunti,“AssessingtheFinancialVulnerabilityofItalianHouseholds:aMicrosimulationApproach”,inBankforInternationalSettlements(ed.),Indicatorstosupportmonetaryandfinancialstabilityanalysis:datasources
andstatisticalmethodologies,volume39,BankforInternationalSettlements.
Notarpietro A. andS. Siviero,“OptimalMonetaryPolicyRulesandHousePrices:TheRoleofFinancialFrictions”,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,v.47,S1,pp.383-410.(WPNo.993)
Riggi M.and S. Santoro,“OnTheSlopeandthePersistenceoftheItalianPhillipsCurve”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking,v.11,2,pp.157-197.
Riggi M.and F. Venditti,“TheTimeVaryingEffectofOilPriceShocksonEuro-AreaExports”,JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl,v.59,pp.75-94.(WPNo.1035)
________________________________________________________
2014
AeberhardtR.,I. Buono andH.Fadinger,“Learning,IncompleteContractsandExportDynamics:TheoryandEvidencefromFrenchFirms”,EuropeanEconomicReview,v.68,pp.219-249.
Accetturo A.,A.Dalmazzo andG. de Blasio,“SkillPolarizationinLocalLaborMarketsunderShare-AlteringTechnicalChange”,JournalofRegionalScience,v.54,2,pp.249-272.
Accetturo A.,G. de Blasio andL.Ricci,“ATaleofanUnwantedOutcome:TransfersandLocalEndowmentsofTrustandCooperation”,JournalofEconomicBehaviorandOrganization,v.102,pp.74-89.
Accetturo A.,F. Manaresi,S. Mocetti andE. Olivieri,“Don'tStandSoClosetoMe:TheUrbanImpactofImmigration”,RegionalScienceandUrbanEconomics,v.45,pp.45-56.(WPNo.866)
Albertazzi U.,T. Ropele,G. Sene andF. M. Signoretti,“TheImpactoftheSovereignDebtCrisisontheActivityofItalianBanks”,JournalofBanking&Finance,v.46,pp.387-402.
Albertazzi U.andM. Bottero,“ForeignBankLending:EvidencefromtheGlobalFinancialCrisis”,JournalofInternationalEconomics,v.92,1,pp.22-35.(WPNo.926)
http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2010/2010-0737/en_tema_737.pdfhttp://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2014-0248/QEF_248.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2012/2012-0847/en_tema_847.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0987/en_tema_987.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2013/2013-0907/en_tema_907.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0991/en_tema_991.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0946/en_tema_946.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0993/en_tema_993.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1035/en_tema_1035.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2012/2012-0866/en_tema_866.pdfhttp://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2013/2013-0926/en_tema_926.pdf
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21
Selection of Journal articles
Andini M.andC.Andini,“Finance,GrowthandQuantileParameterHeterogeneity”,JournalofMacroeconomics,v.40,pp.308-22.
Angelini P., S. Neri andF. Panetta,“TheInteractionbetweenCapitalRequirementsandMonetaryPolicy”,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,v.46,6,pp.1073-1112.(WPNo.801)
Anzuini A., M. Lombardi andP. Pagano,“TheImpactofMonetaryPolicyShocksonCommodityPrices”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking,v.9,3,pp.119-144.(WPNo.851)
BauduccoS.and F. Caprioli,“OptimalFiscalPolicyinaSmallOpenEconomywithLimitedCommitment”,JournalofInternationalEconomics,v.93,2,pp.302-315.
Barbiellini Amidei, F. andC. Giordano,“Theredesignofthebank-industry-AinancialmarkettiesintheU.S.Glass-Steagallandthe1936ItalianBankingActs”,inP.Clement,James,H.,VanderWee,H.(eds.),FinancialInnovation,RegulationandCrisesin
History,London,Pickering&ChattoPublishers.
Bardozzetti A.andD. Dottori,“CollectiveActionClauses:HowDoTheyAffectSovereignBondYields?”,JournalofInternationalEconomics,v.92,2,pp.286-303.
BarigozziM.,A. Conti and M.Luciani,“DoEuroAreaCountriesRespondAsymmetricallytotheCommonMonetaryPolicy?”,OxfordBulletinofEconomicsandStatistics,v.76,5,pp.693-714.(WPNo.923)
Barone G.andS. Mocetti,“NaturalDisasters,GrowthandInstitutions:aTaleofTwoEarthquakes”,JournalofUrbanEconomics,v.84,pp.52-66.(WPNo.949)
BragaM., M. PaccagnellaandM.Pellizzari,“EvaluatingStudents’EvaluationsofProfessors”,EconomicsofEducationReview,v.41,pp.71-88.(WPNo.825)
Bronzini R.andE. Iachini,“AreIncentivesforR&DEffective?EvidencefromaRegressionDiscontinuityApproach”,AmericanEconomicJournal:EconomicPolicy,v.6,4,pp.100-134.(WPNo.791)
CarlucciF.and F. Montaruli,“Co-integratingVARModelsandEconomicPolicy”,JournalofEconomicSurveys,v.28,1,pp.68-81.
Cuciniello V.,“MonetaryandLaborInteractionsinaMonetaryUnion”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking,v.10,4,pp.1-30.
Dalmazzo A.,P. Pin andD. Scalise,“CommunitiesandSocialInefAiciencywitheterogeneousgroups”,JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl,v.48,pp.410-427.
D’Amuri F.andG.Peri,“Immigration,JobsandEmploymentProtection:EvidencefromEuropebeforeandduringtheGreatRecession”,JournaloftheEuropeanEconomicAssociation.,v.12,2,pp.432-464.(WPNo.886)
D’Ignazio A. andE.Giovannetti,“ContinentalDifferencesintheClustersofIntegration:EmpiricalEvidencefromtheDigitalCommoditiesGlobalSupplyChainNetworks”,InternationalJournalofProductionEconomics,v.147,pp.486-497.
Di Giacinto V., M. Gomellini, G. Micucci andM. Pagnini,“MappinglocalproductivityadvantagesinItaly:industrialdistricts,citiesorboth?”,JournalofEconomicGeography,v.14,pp.365–394.(WPNo.850)
Federico S., “Industrydynamicsandcompetitionfromlow-wagecountries:EvidenceonItaly”,OxfordBulletinofEconomicsandStatistics,v.76,3,pp.389-410.(WPNo.879)
Francese M.,MPiacenza,M. RomanelliandG.Turati,“UnderstandingInappropriatnessinHealthCare.TheRoleofSupplyStructure,PricingPoliciesandPoliticalInstitutionsinCaesareanDeliveries”,RegionalScienceandUrbanEconomics,v.49,pp.262-277.
Francese M.andM. Romanelli,“IsThereRoomforContainingHealthcareCosts?AnAnalysisofRegionalSpendingDifferentialsinItaly”,EuropeanJournalofHealthEconomics,v.15,2,pp.117-132.(WPNo.828)
Franco D.andF. Zollino,“MacroeconomicImbalancesinEurope:InstitutionalProgressandtheChallengesThatRemain”,AppliedEconomics,v.46,4-6,pp.589-602.
GambacortaL.andP. E. Mistrulli,“BankHeterogeneityandInterestRateSetting:WhatLessonshaveweLearnedsinceLehmanBrothers?”,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,v.46,4,pp.753-778.(WPNo.829)
GambacortaL.andF. M. Signoretti,“ShouldMonetaryPolicyLeanAgainsttheWind?AnAnalysisBasedonaDSGEModelwithBanking”,JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl,v.43,pp.146-174.(WPNo.921)
Gennari E.andG. Messina,“HowStickyareLocalExpendituresinItaly?AssessingtheRelevanceoftheFlypaperEffectthroughMunicipalData”,InternationalTaxandPublicFinance,v.21,2,pp.324-344.(WPNo.844)
Giordano C.,G.PigaandG.Trovato,“FascistItaly'sIndustrialGreatDepression:FascistPriceandWagePolicies”,MacroeconomicDynamics,v.18,3,pp.689-720.
Gobbi, G. andE. Sette,“DoFirmsBeneAitfromConcentratingtheirBorrowing?EvidencefromtheGreatRecession”,ReviewofFinance,v.18,2,pp.527-560.
HuntleyJ. andV. Michelangeli,“CanTaxRebatesStimulateConsumptionSpendinginaLife-CycleModel?”,AmericanEconomicJournal:Macroeconomics,v.6,1,pp.162-189.
http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2011/2011-0801/tema_801.pdfhttp://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2012/2012-0851/en_tema_851.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2013/2013-0923/en_tema_923.pdfhttp://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0949/en_tema_949.pdfhttp://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2011/2011-0825/en_tema_825.pdfhttp://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2011/2011-0791/en_tema_791.pdfhttp://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2012/2012-0886/en_tema_886.pdfhttp://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2012/2012-0850/en_tema_850.pdfhttp://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2012/2012-0879/en_tema_879.pdfhttp://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2011/2011-0828/en_tema_828.pdfhttp://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2011/2011-0829/en_tema_829.pdfhttp://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2013/2013-0921/en_tema_921.pdfhttp://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2012/2012-0844/en_tema_844.pdf
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Selection of Journal articles
JunyeL.andG. Zinna,“OnBankCreditRisk:SytemicorBank-speciAic?EvidencefromtheUSandUK”,JournalofFinancialandQuantitativeAnalysis,v.49,5/6,pp.1403-1442.(WPNo.951)
IchinoA.,E.A.LindstromandE. Viviano,“HiddenConsequencesofaFirst-BornBoyforWomen”,EconomicsLetters,v.123,3,pp.274-278.
Infante L. andM. Piazza,“PoliticalConnectionsandPreferentialLendingatLocalLevel:SomeEvidencefromtheItalianCreditMarket”,JournalofCorporateFinance,v.29,C,pp.246-262.
Magri S.,“DoesIssuingEquityHelpR&DActivity?EvidencefromUnlistedItalianHigh-TechManufacturingFirms”,EconomicsofInnovationandNewTechnology,v.23,8,pp.825-854.(WPNo.978)
Marconi D.andF.Sanna-Randaccio,“TheCleandevelopmentMechanismandTechnologyTransfertoChina”,inR.vanTulderetal.(eds.),ProgressinInternationalBusinessResearch;Vol8;International
BusinessandSustainableDevelopment.EmeraldGroupPublishingLimited.(OPNo.129)
Modena F., C. Rondinelli andF.Sabatini,“EconomicInsecurityandFertilityIntentions:TheCaseofItaly”,ReviewofIncomeandWealth,v.60,SupplementS1,pp.S233-S255.
MolnarK.and S. Santoro,“OptimalMonetaryPolicywhenAgentsareLearning”,EuropeanEconomicReview,v.66,pp.3-62.
Monteforte L. andC.Frale,“TheFinancialContentofInAlationRisksintheEuroArea:Comments”,InternationalJournalofForecasting,v.30,3,pp.660-661.
Pericoli M., “RealTermStructureandInAlationCompensationintheEuroArea”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking,v.10,1,pp.1-42.(WPNo.841)
Rocco M., “ExtremevaluetheoryinAinance:asurvey”,JournalofEconomicSurveys,v.28,1,pp.82-108.(OPNo.99)
SbranaG.andA. Silvestrini,“RandomSwitchingExponentialSmoothingandInventoryForecasting”,InternationalJournalofProductionEconomics,v.156,pp.283-294.
Sestito P., “Lascuolaimperfetta.Ideeperspezzareuncircolovizioso”,Bologna,IlMulino
Taboga M., “TheRiskinessofCorporateBonds”,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,v.46,4,pp.693-713.(WPNo.730)
http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0951/en_tema_951.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0978/en_tema_978.pdfhttp://www22.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2012-0129/QEF_129.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2012/2012-0841/en_tema_841.pdf?language_id=1http://www22.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2011-0099/QEF_99.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2009/2009-0730/en_tema_730.pdf
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WD?CZ:?@ DE AB: DAB:?
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EuropeanCentralBank
BancodeEspaña
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BankofFinland
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BISCentralBankResearchHub
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ResearchattheIMF
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Useful links
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/research/working-papers/html/index.en.htmlhttp://www.bde.es/webbde/en/secciones/informes/Publicaciones_se/docs/anoactual/http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/Pages/Investigacao.aspxhttp://www.eestipank.info/pub/en/dokumendid/publikatsioonid/seeriad/uuringud/http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/keskustelualoitteet/Pages/default.aspxhttp://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/en/Publications/Papers.aspx?Filter_By=13http://www.bsi.si/en/publications.asp?MapaId=716http://www.bcl.lu/en/Research/publications/index.htmlhttp://www.banque-france.fr/en/economics-statistics/research.htmlhttps://www.nbb.be/en/publications-and-research/economic-and-financial-publicationshttp://www.centralbank.gov.cy/nqcontent.cfm?a_id=8094&lang=enhttp://www.centralbank.ie/publications/Pages/ResearchTechnicalPapers.aspxhttp://www.centralbankmalta.org/en/working-papershttps://www.lb.lt/economic_researchhttp://www.hnb.hr/analyses-and-publications/occasional-publicationshttp://www.dnb.nl/en/onderzoek-2/publications/dnb-working-paper-series/index.jsphttp://www.bundesbank.de/Navigation/EN/Publications/Research/research.htmlhttp://www.nbs.sk/en/press/all-press-releaseshttps://www.bank.lv/en/publications-r/working-papers/wp-2011-2015http://www.oenb.at/en/Publications/Economics/Working-Papers.htmlhttp://www.bis.org/cbhub/index.htmhttp://www.eief.it/working-papers/http://www.oecd.org/about/publishing/oecd-working-papers-series.htmhttp://www.imf.org/external/research/index.aspxhttp://econ.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=469435&pagePK=64165236&piPK=64165141&theSitePK=469382
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