Download - Hi-Cap Magazine Distribution in California
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Hi-Cap Magazine Distribution in
California
Team CarRamrod
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Disclaimer
• The following is a hypothetical scenario. The group members do not engage in, nor condone engaging in the trade of banned products.
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CA Law• 12020. (a) Any person in this state who does any of the following is
punishable by imprisonment in a county jail not exceeding one year or in the state prison:
(2) Commencing January 1, 2000, manufactures or causes to bemanufactured, imports into the state, keeps for sale, or offers orexposes for sale, or who gives, or lends, any large-capacitymagazine....(c) (25) As used in this section, "large-capacity magazine" means anyammunition feeding device with the capacity to accept more than 10rounds, but shall not be construed to include any of the following:(A) A feeding device that has been permanently altered so that itcannot accommodate more than 10 rounds.(B) A .22 caliber tube ammunition feeding device.(C) A tubular magazine that is contained in a lever- action firearm.
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Motivation• Law largely unenforceable
o No outright prohibition of possessiono No way to prove if magazine manufactured after 2000
• Bad guys have themo Not illegal in most other stateso Hard to control flow into CA
• So should youo Home invasionso Civil Unrest
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LA Riots 1992: Koreatown
• 45% of all property damage• 5 of 53 deaths• Police nowhere to be seen• Store-owners banded together on rooftops• Defended themselves against much larger
crowds using “Assault Weapons” and High-Capacity Magazines
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Concept
• Procure High-Capacity magazines from another state
• Distribute by airplane, flying out of Watsonville Municipal Airport
• Distribute to large cities (Pop > 150,000) via small airports
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The Market
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Assumptions/Constraints (General)
• Citieso California cities with populations over 150k are considered
• Population drives largest profit with widest distributiono 36 (of 482) cities meet population limit and are analyzedo Only 20 cities will be supplied
• Airportso Only airports considered small/medium by the FAA are consideredo Only airports within 50 miles of each city are considered o 550 out of 1007 total California airports are analyzed
• Networko Start Node: Watsonville; End Node: Marketo 2305 total arcs (Watsonville->Airport->City->Market)o 588 total nodes (Watsonville->Airport->City->Market)
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Assumptions/Constraints (Resources)
• Season lasts 20 workdays (1 month, per year)
• Cities will be supplied only once per season
• Each airport will supply only 1 city
• AR-15 high-capacity magazineso 7.5”x2.75”x1”, .25 lbs
• 1 airplane will be used (Cessna Super CargoMaster)o 452 cubic feet of storage; (4500 lbs/.25 lbs) = 18,000 Magazines (180 cases)o $2.29/nm fuel costo 871 nm range
• Supplier (out of State)o Able to supply in excess of the air transport constraint (20*180=3600 cases).
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Assumptions/Constraints (Formulation)
• Demand (Capacity):o (.0525*Population)/100o Range: 79 - 1991o 21% of CA population own firearms*
• 21% used in model (conservative)o 50% of gun-owners don’t support high-capacity magazine ban**
• 25% used in model (conservative)
• Probability (of capture, relatively):o ((Distance/50)*1.24)*(CrimeRate*12)o Ranges: (Distance: .1 - 50), (CrimeRate: .0146 - .0667)
• Highest relative probability: 50 miles from Oakland: 97%o Not a function of population
• Price (Cost):o log(population(.0525)/1000)*$30
• $30: Upper-end price of name-brand magazine in legal stateo Range($26.49 - $68.97)
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Airports
U= Plane (180)
Cities
Cost = Prob of Getting Caught
U= Inf Cost = - RevenueCost = Flight price
U = City Demand
3600
-3600
The Model
Watsonville
Market
-3600 3600
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Optimizing
• Parameters:o Probability : log (1-Pij)o Revenue : Yij * Cij
• Method Of Optimization:o Probability as a Constrainto Probability in Objective Function
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Under The Hood• Constraint:
MaxProb.. sum((i,j), log(1-arcdata(i,j, 'Probb'))*P(i,j)) =g= log(.90);
• Objective Function:OBJECTIVE.. Zprimal =e= SUM(arcs(i,j),(arcdata(i,j,'Cost') *Y(i,j) )) + (Weight)*probab + nC/2*SUM(j,UnsatisfiedDemand(j)) ;
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Results (.90)• Probability = 0.90 • Revenue from LosxAngeles -> is 1241513.32• Revenue from SanxDiego -> is 991746.96• Revenue from SanxJose -> is 915852.86• Revenue from Fresno -> is 763814.06• Revenue from Sacramento -> is 750059.88• Revenue from LongxBeach -> is 747923.11• Revenue from Oakland -> is 708495.87• Revenue from Bakersfield -> is 680990.15• Revenue from Anaheim -> is 658332.03• Revenue from SantaxAna -> is 628019.85• Revenue from Riverside -> is 573758.76• Revenue from Stockton -> is 543963.72• Revenue from ChulaxVista -> is 425241.44• Revenue from Fremont -> is 353053.23• Revenue from Irvine -> is 348738.48• Revenue from SanxBernardi -> is 343933.06• Revenue from Modesto -> is 322469.19• Revenue from Oxnard -> is 314130.30• Revenue from Fontana -> is 309845.88• Revenue from Glendale -> is 300847.34• SupplyDemand that could not be moved on node Watsonvillex is -631.00• SupplyDemand that could not be moved on node Market is 631.00• total Revenue = 11922729.51
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Results (.70)• Probability = 0.70• Revenue from LosxAngeles -> is 1241513.32• Revenue from SanxDiego -> is 991746.96• Revenue from SanxJose -> is 915852.86• Revenue from SanxFrancisc -> is 878084.25• Revenue from Fresno -> is 763814.06• Revenue from Sacramento -> is 750059.88• Revenue from LongxBeach -> is 747923.11• Revenue from Oakland -> is 708495.87• Revenue from Bakersfield -> is 680990.15• Revenue from Anaheim -> is 658332.03• Revenue from SantaxAna -> is 628019.85• Revenue from Riverside -> is 573758.76• Revenue from Stockton -> is 543963.72• Revenue from ChulaxVista -> is 425241.44• Revenue from Fremont -> is 353053.23• Revenue from Irvine -> is 348738.48• Revenue from SanxBernardi -> is 343933.06• Revenue from Modesto -> is 322469.19• Revenue from Oxnard -> is 314130.30• Revenue from Fontana -> is 309845.88• SupplyDemand that could not be moved on node Watsonvillex is -551.00• SupplyDemand that could not be moved on node Market is 551.00• total Revenue = 12499966.42
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Results (.96)• Probability = 0.96 • Revenue from SanxDiego -> is 991746.96• Revenue from SanxJose -> is 915852.86• Revenue from Fresno -> is 763814.06• Revenue from Sacramento -> is 750059.88• Revenue from LongxBeach -> is 747923.11• Revenue from Bakersfield -> is 680990.15• Revenue from Anaheim -> is 658332.03• Revenue from Riverside -> is 573758.76• Revenue from Oxnard -> is 314130.30• Revenue from Fontana -> is 309845.88• Revenue from Oceanside -> is 246148.93• Revenue from ElkxGrove -> is 217174.39• Revenue from Corona -> is 214027.63• Revenue from Torrance -> is 201286.88• SupplyDemand that could not be moved on node Watsonvillex is -1658.00• SupplyDemand that could not be moved on node Market is 1658.00• total Revenue = 7585091.84
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Results
0.35 0.37 0.87 0.88 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.981000000
3000000
5000000
7000000
9000000
11000000
13000000
15000000
Probability V.S. Revenue
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Conclusion• Results:
o Market changed with different threshold values for Probability of capture.
• What could we have done better given more time?o More realistic model
• No shipping by air from Watsonville to San Jose, etc.• Capability to ship to more than 20 cities (longer contract)
o More realistic constraints• Better Probability Function• Better Demand Function