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COURSE 102: RESEARCH IN DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMSFOR FUTURE AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
La Granja 9th -12th July, 2012 www.hala-sesar.net
Slots and flow management (Slot allocation & operational
planning: airport and en-route slots, CFMU)
Rosa Arnaldo, UPM
TITLE
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Introduction
Imbalance between airtransport demand
and
airport facilities/infrastructureavailability and airspace
systems to meet demand.
Results incongestion
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Introduction
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Two main processes for maximizing use of
available capacity
Airport
slots allocation
ATFMslots allocation
AirspaceAirports
Two main process
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Airportslots
allocation
ATFMSlots
allocation
The FPL management link
these two main processes
Allocated
airport slots
EOBTs ETOTs ATFM slots
(CTOTs)
Two main process
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Airport Slots - The Building Blocks of
Air Travel
Airport SlotsThe Building Blocks of Air Travel
1
Flow Management
Demand and Capacity Balance2
Connecting Airport slots
and ATFM slots
3
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Airport Slots - The Building Blocks of
Air Travel
Airport Slots
The Building Blocks of Air Travel
1
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Airport Slots - The Building Blocks of
Air Travel
What is an Air Traffic Slot?
Permission given by a coordinator
to land at or to take off from a
coordinated airport on a specificdate and time.
The allocation of an airport slot
in no way represents the right to ownership of that slotby the company to which the authorization has been granted.
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Airport Slots - The Building Blocks of
Air Travel
What is a Coordinated Airport?
Airline
Level 1: Non coordinated Airport
Airport
Handling
Agent
Simple discussions between
airline, handling agent and airport
Demand >>> Capacity
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Airport Slots - The Building Blocks of
Air Travel
How many coordinated airportsare there in Europe nowadays?
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Airport Slots - The Building Blocks of
Air Travel
What is Slot Allocation?A planning instrument to help balance supply and demand at acoordinated airport and to maximize the use of scarce capacity.
How often are Slots Allocated?
From the last Sunday in March
to Saturday before last Sunday in
October
From the last Sunday of October
to the Saturday before last
Sunday in March
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Airport Slots - The Building Blocks of
Air Travel
What is a series of slots?
At least five slots having been requested and allocated - for
the same time on the same dayof the week regularly in the
same scheduling period.
What is a new entrance?
An air carrier , with low presence at an airport, fewer than five
slots at that airport on a particular day.
An air carrier holding more than 5 % of the total slots available
on the day in question at a particular airport shall not be
considered as a new entrant at that airport;
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Airport Slots - The Building Blocks of
Air Travel
Who is the Coordinator?
Nominated by the State.
Acts according to
Regulation.
Neutral, non-
discriminatory and
transparent.
Monitor the conformity ofair carriers' operations
with the slots.
The sole person responsible for the allocationof slots
Request:
(a)historical slots by airline,
(b)requested slots (initialsubmissions),
(c)all allocated slots, and
outstanding slot requests,
(d)remaining available slots,(e)full details on the criteria
being used in the
allocation.
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Airport Slots - The Building Blocks of
Air Travel
An what about the Coordination Committee?
To advise the coordinator and/or the Member State on:
the possibilities for increasing the capacity of the airport or
for improving its usage;
the coordination parameters the methods of monitoring the use of allocated slots;
local guidelines
improvements to traffic conditions
serious problems encountered by new entrants
all questions relating to the capacity of the airport;
To mediate between all parties concerned on complaints on
the allocation of slots.
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Airport Slots - The Building Blocks of
Air Travel
An the coordinating parameters?
Twice yearly
Objective analysis .
Maximum number of departures and landings .
At coordinated airports there are shortfalls as
regards these capacities so the timeframes
have to be allocated by an airport coordinator.
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How the process works
Airports outside the EU: Airline self-regulation using guidelines drawn up
by IATAs Worldwide Slot Guidelines .
Airports regulated by the
EU:
Slot Allocation Regulation.
Regulation 95/93/EEC
amended by Regulation
894/2002/EC and
793/2004/EC
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How the process works:
Airline self-regulation
overall and worldwideschedule co-ordination attwice-yearly IATA
meetings; and
Two stages
local co-ordination at
individual airports usuallythrough their own
scheduling committees.
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How the process works
Guiding rules
grandfatherrights1
2 use it or lose it
slot poolNew entrant and
regular services priority
3
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How the process works
Grandfather rights or 80/20 rule
An air carrier having operated a series of slotsfor at least 80 % during the summer/winter
scheduling period is entitled to the same slotsin the equivalent scheduling period of thefollowing year
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How the process works
Grandfather rights or 80/20 rule
SC: Slot Canceled
SNC: Slot not granted
SCO: Slot granted and correctly
operatedSCD : Slot granted at different time
SCN: Slot granted but not operated
A=SCO/(SCO+SCD+SCN+SC)
A= 19/(19+2+1+1)=0,82
First step : determination of the historic series
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How the process works
Grandfather rights or 80/20 rule
A=SCO/(possible operations within the period)
Second step : determination of the time and period of the historic series
10:10 - B=10 / 26 (April 3 - Sept 25) < 80%
10:20 - B=4 / 8 (Jun 12 - Jul 31) < 80%
10:20-- B=4 / 5 (Jun 12 Jul 10) = 80%
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How the process works
Use it or lose it rule Example clase
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How the process works
Priorities in slot allocation: the Slot pool
Changes to Historic Slots for non-operational reasons
Regular services, commercial flights
Most frequently, longer duration,more days of the week
All other request
Historic Slots Changes to Historic
Slots for operational
reasons
50%
New entrants
50%
Remainingcapacity and anynew capacity forthe season SLOT
POOL
1 2
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How the process works
Is it possible to interchange slots?
Slots Swapping
Transfer of Slots
Slots can befreely exchangedbetweenairlines as long as the slots exchanged are
going to beused
Trade with Slots
Only authorized:
between the main companyandsubsidiariesbetween subsidiaries of the same maincompany,as part of thecapital acquisitionof an airline,in the case oftotal or partial acquisition,when the slots are directly related to the airlineacquired.
NOT allowed YET
Except UK, US, .
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How the process works
What is the process?
Start of
the season
End of
the season
SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MART SEP OCT
Request
Coodination
InitialCorodination
Calculation of
historic rights Deadline of Slot
Handback
(15 January)
80/20 Rule
Start Date
(31 January)
IATA
Conference
Post Conference Coordination
SUMMER SEASON
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The four cornerstones of the
Worldwide Slots Allocation System
The 4 cornerstones of our worldwide system
Certainty of access
Flexibility to meet
changing market needs
Sustainability and
predictability of costs
Transparency of allocation
Slot allocation rules are observed worldwideAirport B
outside Europe
Airport Awithin Europe
Arrival Slotslot pair
Departure Slotslot pair
No airline wants a slot management system, but therules governing access to slots must be the same at
both ends of a route
Departure SlotArrival Slot
May Europe try to impose its unique rules on non-European airlines?
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Europeen airports key facts and
figures
Almost 800 million passengers used EU airports in 2010.
Aviation is one of Europe's most competitive sectors. Europe as "hub" forthe world.
Over the next five years, air transport growth will be driven mainly byregions like Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Latin America.
Two major challenges facing European airports: capacity and quality.
Capacity crunch. Airport capacity must be optimised.
Today 5 major European airport hubs are at saturation .
By 2030, on current trends 19 key European airports will be atsaturation.
Quality and efficiency of services at airports must be improved.
70% of all delays to flights are already caused by problems due to the
turn around of aircrafts at airports .
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Problems arising from the
existing system of allocation
Relation between
preliminarily requested andfinally operated slots.
Financial accoutrements andindependency of thecoordinator.
Monitoring the use ofallocated slots.
Few carries holds a very large amount of available slots: babysitting.
No incentive for efficient use od slots.
Slots close to peak times used within peak times.
Lack of timeframe protects established carriers against effective competition.
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What are the problems?
Is the current system of slot allocation inefficient? Is the "grandfather clause" sufficiently performant?
How to avoid capacity to remain unused?
May be a solution allow market incentive for airlines to sell onunder used slots to other airlines who could make better use
of the capacity? Does the system hinders competition and passenger choice?
Is the System resistant to air traffic increase?
Can carriers enter the market at congested airports?
Does airlines will do everything necessary to keep their slotsfrom one season to the next?
Are pool slots often only available for flight timings which areless attractive (e.g. mid afternoon, late evening, when fewerpeople wish to fly)?
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Slot Allocation Regulation:
proposed reform, 2011
Allocation system in place prevents optimal use ofthe scarce capacity at busy airports .
EC Better Airports Package December 2011 :
Introducing the possibility ofsecondary trade in
slots and increased competition
Strengthening the transparency of the slot
allocation process and the independence of slot
coordinators Integrating slot allocation with the reform of the
European air traffic management system (SES)
Amending the '80-20' rule on grandfather rights
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Airport Slots - The Building Blocks of
Air Travel
Airport Slots
The Building Blocks of Air Travel1
Drawbacks Possible improvements
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Flow management
Flow Management
The balance between Demand and Capacity
2
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Why Flow Management
What does DEMAND stand for?
In economics, demand is
the desire to own anything,
the ability to pay for it, and
the willingness to pay.
In air transport, air traffic
demand stand for.the
mumber of aircraft
intending to use the AirNavigation System
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Why Flow Management
What does CAPACITY stand for ?The number of flights for a time period that can be managed by an
ANSP, normally varying according to:
The complexity of the flights to be managed.
Staffing numbers and their experience (e.g, number of traineesunder supervision).
Status of equipment.
different meanings:
Declared capacity : before taking theabove factors into account.
Co-ordinated Capacity: after taking
the above factors into account.
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Why Flow Management
What is Traffic Flow ?
Number of flights moving through and Airspace
in a common direction
Is there any Limit for traffic flows?
The limit is based on :
DEMAND and CAPACITY
What happens if DEMAND exceed CAPACITY?
then , either the DEMAND or the CAPACITY requires adjustment.
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Why Flow Management
What is Air Traffic Flow Management ?
A service established with the objective of contributing to a safe,
orderly and expeditious flow of air traffic by ensuring that Air Traffic
Control (ATC) capacity is utilised to the maximum extent possible, and
that the volume of traffic is compatible with the capacities declared
by the appropriate Air Traffic Services (ATS) authority
Air Traffic Flow Management Objectives
Safety
Fluency
Better use of capacity
Equity
Information
HALA! SESAR
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Why Flow Management
What is EOBT (Estimated Off Block Time)/coordinated SLOT ?
Time programmed to perform an operation within a period of time
determined at an airport.
What is and ATFM SLOT or CTOT (Calculated Take Off time) ?
Take-off Time assigned by the Flow Control Service.
What is a ATFM Delay ?
Difference in time between the scheduled and actual take of time of a
flight.
What is a ATFM Regulation ?ATFM Measure issued by the Flow Control service provider in order to
protect the established parameters of capacity in the airspace and
airports.
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Why Flow Management
What is Air Traffic Flow Management ?
A service established with the objective of contributing to a safe,
orderly and expeditious flow of air traffic by ensuring that Air Traffic
Control (ATC) capacity is utilized to the maximum extent possible, and
that the volume of traffic is compatible with the capacities declared
by the appropriate Air Traffic Services (ATS) authority
Demand requiring
ATFM measures
Regulated Demand Actual Demand
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Why Flow Management
What is Air Traffic Flow & Capacity Management ?A concept which extends the role ofATFM to the optimization of
traffic patterns and capacity management. Through managing the
balance of capacity and demand, the aim of ATFCM is to enable flight
punctuality and efficiency according to the available resources with
the emphasis on optimizing the network capacity through the
collaborative decision making process
Air Traffic Flow & Capacity Management Objectives
Safety
Fluency Better use of capacity
Equity
Information
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The Challenge The AnswerEnabling flight punctuality
and efficiency according to
the available resources
Improving Traffic
Flow & Capacity
Management
The Essence of ATFCM
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The Essence of ATFCM
Planning and optimisation of therequired capacity.
Overcome as far as possible the slot
allocations.
Minimise the impact on Aircraft
Operators.
Inclusive and transparent
collaborative decision making
process
Implementation of local solutions
based on a global ATM awareness.
Anticipation of any events
according to new information
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CFMU systems
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CFMU Areas of Operation
Flight Plans and Messages (FPM)
Distribution Areas- IFPS zone
The area in which CFMU is
responsible for the distribution of
Flight Plans and associated messages
to the ATC world.
ATFCM Area
States receiving full ATFCM service from CFMU
ATFCM Adjacent Area
FIRs directly adjacent to the CFMU
area: ATFCM regulations at the
entry fixes/pints on their boundaryor at an airport(s) and only for
traffic departing within the ATFCM
Area.
HALA! SESARHow are different flights
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How are different flights
affected?
Flight Subject to ATFCM
measures
Calculated Take Odd
Time (CTOT)
Departing from within the ATFCM
area of the CFMU to anywhere
May be subject to
ATFCM measures
If affected by
Regulation
Departing from an FIR immediately
adjacent of the ATFCM area of the
CFMU, and entering the ATFCM area
May be subject to
ATFCM measures
If affected by
Regulation
Departing from an FIR immediately
adjacent of the ATFCM area of the
CFMU NOT entering the ATFCM area
Not subject to ATFCM
measures
Not issued
Departing from outside the ATFCM
area of the CFMU and outside FIRs
immediately adjacent , to anywhere
Not subject to ATFCM
measures
Not issued
All IFR GAT flights intending to operate within the CFMU areas of
operation must file a flight plan (inform CFMU ). The flight plan is used when comparing demand and capacity.
HALA! SESARHow are different flights
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How are different flights
affected?
LFPG
EDDM
LIMC
RJAA
NO CTOT
CTOT
EDDF
DTTA
CTOT
DTTA
OEJN
NO CTOT
Departing from within the
ATFCM area of the CFMU toanywhere
Departing from an FIR
immediately adjacent of the
ATFCM area of the CFMU,
and entering the ATFCM area
Departing from an FIR
immediately adjacent of the
ATFCM area of the CFMU
NOT entering the ATFCM area
Departing from outside the
ATFCM area of the CFMU
and outside FIRs immediately
adjacent , to anywhere
HALA! SESARThe process of filling a flight plan
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The process of filling a flight plan
through to the issuing of a CTOT
Flight plan filled and processed
CFMU informs Customers of
ATFCM measures and CTOT
CFMU monitors and refines
ATFCM measures/CTOT
Adjust Sector
Configuration ?
Coordinate a
temporary increase
of capacity?
Level capping?
Re-routeing
of traffic flows or individual
flights?
Match demand to capacity
without Regulation
( with FMPO and/or AO).
Match capacity to
demand (with FMP).
Capacity / demand is compared and resolved
YES
NO
NO
NO
NO
YES
YES
YES
END END
1
2
2.a 2.b
3
4
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CFMU
Flight Data Operations
Syntax, Routing
Checked in IFPS
Flow Management
Operations
AOs
ACK Message
Flight Plan
Manual Change
No
ATC Units involved
ACK Message
Yes
Flight Plan
Flight Data Operations
OK?
Flight plan filled and processed
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Match capacity to demand
CFMU
Flow Management Operations
FMPs
Demand
AOs
Capacities
Sector configurations
Yes
NO
NO
Flight Data Operations
MatchCapacity
to demand?
Match
Capacity
to demand?
Match demand by Regulation
Demand
>capacity?
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Match demand to capacity by
use of Regulation
CFMU
Flight Data Operations
Flow Management OperationsAOs & ATC Units
Yes(ATFCM
Maeassures)
(CTOTs)
Yes
Yes
Regulation
Required?
CTOSsRequired?
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Issue a CTOT
CFMU
AOs &
ATC UnitsAOs &
ATC Units
Demand
Monitor situation
SLC
Yes
Yes
Yes
Flight Data Operations
Flow Management Operations
ATFCM
measures
Modified or
cancelled?
ANMupdate
Yes
Yes
ATFCM
messages)
New/changed
/cancelled
CTOT?
New
ATFCM
measures
required?
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Operational structure
CFMU
AOs
/
AROs
ATC
Updated
flight
data
Flight
plans
Flight
plans
Env.
data
ANMs &
Updates
CTOTs %
Updates
ANMTs %
Updates
capacities
Flight PlatEnv. data
Updated sector
config & capacities
Updated
flightdata
Real time flight data
Flight Data
IFPS
RPL ENV
Flow Management
ETFMS (CASA)
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ATFCM Phases
ATFCM consists of 4 phases:
Phase Time horizon Output
Strategic Flow
Management
More than 7 days
before the day of the
operation
Network Operations Plan (NOP)
Pre-Tactical Flow
Management
During the six days
prior to the day of
operation
ATFCM Daily Plan (ADP) published
via ATFCM Notification Message
(ANM) / Network News and via the
NOP portal.
Tactical Flow
Management
Applied on the day of
the operation
Updates the daily plan according
to the actual traffic, capacity andmonitoring values
CTOT
Post Operational
Analysis
Applied following the
day of operation.
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Strategic Flow Management
Research , planning and coordination
Traffic Forecasts
& Special Events
Planned ATS
Route Network
Identified
Bottlenecks
ATC Capacities
Possible AIPamendments
Routing & Level
Capping Scenarios
Pre-tactical phase
Route Availability
Document
RAD
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Pre- Tactical Flow ManagementFrom 6 days to 2 days before the day of operation
Assess previous experience &measures taken for a Reference Day
WHAT LESSONS HAVE BEEN LEARNT?Teleconferences with AOs and
ANSPs for certain problematic hours
Routing & Level
capping scenarios
(from strategic phase)
FMPs
AOSFlow Management
Previous experiences
FMPsAd hoc special events
Identified agreed
Routing
scenariosIdentified likely capacities
& optimum Sector Configurations
Identified Critical Areas
Data from
Reference Day
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Pre- Tactical Flow ManagementDuring the 2 days prior to the day of operation
Formulate pre-tactical plan for day of flight
Compare demand (reference day) with
available capacity and sector configuration
Assess network effects
FMPs
Predicted sector configurations
& capacities for day of operation
Lessons learnt
& Agreed routing scenarios
(previous phase)
Data from
Reference Day
Refine plan Coordinate with FMPs
Sector
configurations
& capacitiesRAD
Route changes
for D-day
ATFCM
Notification
Messages (ANMs)
Regulations
ETFMS
(day of operation)
Regulations
ATFCM
Informmation
Messages (AIM)
Information on
significant events,including mandatory /
advisory routings
(network news)
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Tactical Flow ManagementDuring the day of operation
Monitor & refine measures further
Monitor traffic load vs available capacity+
Assess network effects of implemented measures
ATFCMmeasures
From Pre tactical Plan
Refineplan
Coordinatewith FMPs
ATFCM
Messages
Calculates
Take Off
TimeasCTOT
Suggested rerouting
and level capping
CASASlot Allocation
Updated real
time flight data
(DEP message,
FSA & CPR)
ATCAOs
ATFCM
messages
FMPs
Updated sector
configurations
& capacities
Flight data
Flight Plans &
updates
Improvements
deteriorations orcancelations)
CTOT Updates
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The slot allocation process
FPL- AFR3436-IS-E135/M-SRYW/s-
LFML1635-M976F310 MTL UN854ETREK UN 871 KUDES T163 PSA-EDDF0125)
Estimated Off Block Time ( EOBT) = 16:35
Aerodrome Taxitime = 10 Minutes
Estimated Take off Time (ETOT) = EOBT + taxitime =16:45
Affected
by
Regulation?
Identify the mostpenalizing regulation
Pre allocate slot based
on this regulation
ISSU CTOTImprove
or change
requested
FLIGHT PLAN
CTOTs and updates
YES
YES
CTOT= EOBT+ taxi time + delay
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The slot allocation process
Estimated Off Block Time ( EOBT) = 1635
Aerodrome Taxitime = 10 MinutesEstimated Take off Time (ETOT) = EOBT + taxitime =1645Affected
by
Regulation?
Identify the mostpenalizing regulation
Pre allocate slot based
on this regulation
ISSU CTOTImprove
or change
requested
FLIGHT PLAN
CTOTs and updates
YES
YES
ETOTETOTETOTETOTETOTETOTETOT
16:45 16:54 17:07 17:18 17:30 17:41 17:52
1
23
4
56
7Initial flight profile
SECTOR CAPACITY DEMAND
1 40 352 25 25
3 35 30
4 40 55
5 30 28
6 35 33
7 40 50
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The slot allocation process
Estimated Off Block Time ( EOBT) = 1635
Aerodrome Taxitime = 10 MinutesEstimated Take off Time (ETOT) = EOBT + taxitime =1645Affected
by
Regulation?
Identify the mostpenalizing regulation
Pre allocate slot based
on this regulation
ISSU CTOTImprove
or change
requested
FLIGHT PLAN
CTOTs and updates
YES
YES
ETOTETOTETOTETOTETOTETOTETOT
16:45 16:54 17:07 17:18 17:30 17:41 17:52
1
23
4
56
7Initial flight profile
The system looks at the Slot List for sectors 4 and 7
Slot List based on capacity i.e. 40/hr. slot are every 1.5 mins
Sector 4
(X= Slots taken) 17:18 17:21 17:24 17:27 17:30 17:33
X X X
ETO
Sector 7
(most penalising)17:51 17:54 17:57 18:00
X X X
ETO
CTOT= EOBT+ taxi time + delay
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The slot allocation process
Estimated Off Block Time ( EOBT) = 1635
Aerodrome Taxitime = 10 MinutesEstimated Take off Time (ETOT) = EOBT + taxitime =1645Affected
by
Regulation?
Identify the mostpenalizing regulation
Pre allocate slot based
on this regulation
ISSU CTOTImprove
or change
requested
FLIGHT PLAN
CTOTs and updates
YES
YES
ATOATOATOATOATOATOATO
16:45 16:54 17:07 17:18 17:30 17:41 17:52
1
23
4
56
7Initial flight profile
Current Tactical Flight Model ( FTFM)
Actual timesCalculated to arrive
based on previous ATOS
[-5, +10] minutes CTOT Tolerance
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Performance Assessment
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Punctuality
causes of departure delays
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Performance Assessment
ATFM slot adherence measures
the share of take-offs outside the
ATFM slot tolerance window (-5min
+10 min).
Share of regulated hours with overdeliveries in Europe.
ATFM regulations avoidable as
there was no excess of demand.
HALA! SESARResearch Network
Possible elements for the future of
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ATFCM
1. Explicit representation of uncertainty andmitigate impact via contingency plans
Today, uncertainty is processed informally
Planning tends to be single scenario or wait andsee
2. Flexible Plans and dynamic adjustments Robust w.r.t. uncertainties
3. Collaborative TFM and distributed decisionmaking
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Elements for the future of ATFCM
4. Trajectory based operations Take airport to airport user intentions into account
5. Coordination with capacity management (dynamicairspace configuration)
Second half of the demand capacity balancing equation
6. Performance based operations and services
Provision for non uniform services
7. Economic controls Market based mechanisms for demand control pre-day of
operations
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Airport Slots - The Building Blocks of
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p g
Air Travel
2
Drawbacks Possible improvements
Flow Management
Balance between Demand and Capacity
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Flow management
Connecting Airport slotsand CFMU slots
3
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Operational planning time phasing
Strategic phase
(18/6 months
several days)
Airport Slots FPL ATFM Slots
Pre tactical
phase
( several days)
Tactical /Operational
phase
( day of operation
Post Operational
phase
( after day
of operation
Airport coordinator considers airlinesrequest and other elements to allocate
available airport slots
several days)
Airlines prepare initial FPLs and
send RPL
Airport coordinator introduces
airlines modification to airport
slots
Airlines introduce modifications
to FPLs
CFMU compares expected air
traffic with ATC capacity to
prepare season
The ATFM notification
messages prepared
CFMU allocates ATFM
slots and monitors airtraffic
AFTM analyses imbalance and
delays to prepare the following
pre-tactical and strategic phase
Airport coordinator analyses
actual use of airport slots to
prepare following season
Airlines prepare final FPLs
taking into account Real Timeevents
Airlines introduce modification to
FPLs
Airport coordinator introduces
final modifications to airport slots
Actual Flight Plan
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