Climate Structure, Phenology, and Change in Pinot Noir Wine Regions
Gregory V. Jones Dept of Environmental StudiesSouthern Oregon University
ASEV Joint Burgundy-California-Oregon
SymposiumJune 16-17, 2008Portland, Oregon
Gregory V. Jones, PhD
Talk Outline
Pinot Noir Regions, Climates, and Vine PhenologyClimate Change, Viticulture, and WineObserved TrendsProjected TrendsSummary/Conclusions
Gregory V. Jones, PhD
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month (NH: Jan-Dec; SH: Jul-Jun)
Gro
win
g D
egre
e-D
ays
(10°
C b
ase)
Tamar Valley 988
Otago 1006
Orange 1128
Salem 1177
Marlborough 1199
McMinnville 1210
Santa Maria 1298
Burgundy 1319
Mornington 1320
Yarra
Valley 1356
Carneros 1379
Santa Rita 1456
Russian River 1468
Growing Degree-Days in Pinot Noir Regions
Unpublished
Gregory V. Jones, PhD
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Sa
nta
Rita
Sant
a M
aria
Car
nero
s
Rus
sian
Riv
er
McM
innv
ille
Sale
m
Tam
ar V
alle
y
Mor
ning
ton
Mar
lbor
ough
Yarr
aVa
lley
Ora
nge
Bur
gund
y
Ota
go
Prec
ipita
tion
(mm
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70Annual PrecipitationGrowing Season Precipitation
% G
row
ing
Seas
on to
Ann
ual
% Growing Season to Annual
Precipitation in Pinot Noir Regions
Unpublished
Gregory V. Jones, PhD
Comparison of Pinot Noir PhenologyBurgundy
Apr 18th
(10)
June 14th
(10)
Aug 9th
(8)
Sept 26th
(10)
Willamette
Apr 10th
(12)
June 15th
(10)
Aug 17th
(9)
Oct 1st
(12)
North Coast
Mar 20th
(15)
May 25th
(14)
Aug 4th
(12)
Sept 15th
(13)
Jones, 2005; plus meta-analysis
Gregory V. Jones, PhD
All varieties have inherent climatic thresholds for optimum quality and production characteristics
Pinot Noir exhibits one of the most narrow climatic niches for premium quality production
Jones, 2006
Gregory V. Jones, PhD
All varieties have inherent climatic thresholds for optimum quality and production characteristics
Pinot Noir exhibits one of the most narrow climatic niches for premium quality production
From what we know about today’s Pinot Noir regions, growing season average temperatures range from ~14-16°C, or ~ a 2°C climatic niche
Burgundy
Tamar Valley
Russian River
Jones, 2006
Gregory V. Jones, PhD
Changes in average climate structure and variability
Warmer and longer growing seasons
Warmer dormant periods
Reduced frost damage (in some areas)
Altered ripening profiles
Earlier phenology (plant growth events)
Altered disease/pest timing and severity
Changes in soil fertility and erosion
CO2 fertilization … but wine effects?
Water availability and timing of irrigation (some places drier, some wetter)
Climate Change, Viticulture, and Wine
Gregory V. Jones, PhD
Observed Climate Trends for the Western U.S. 1948-2005 and Burgundy 1945-2005
Variable Willamette Valley
North Coast
Central Coast Burgundy
Growing Season Tavg +1.1°C +0.9°C +0.9°C +1.3°C
Ripening Period Tavg +1.2°C +0.5°C +0.6°C +1.1°C
Growing Degree-Days +215 +171 +160 +165
Precipitation (Ann & GS) NS NS NS NS
Additional trends include –
earlier last spring frosts, later first fall frosts, longer frost-free periods, and increases in the number of days above 35°C during the growing season and ripening period
Jones, 2005; Jones et al, 2005
Gregory V. Jones, PhD
McMinnville GDDTrend ~35 units/decade
R2 = 0.36
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Gro
win
g D
egre
e-D
ays
(10 °
C b
ase)
Observed Degree-Day Changes in McMinnville
Jones, 2005
Gregory V. Jones, PhD
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
1939 1944 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Year
Day
of t
he Y
ear
2003
Observed Phenological Changes in Burgundy
Harvest Date – 26 Sept.
Véraison Date – 9 August
Floraison Date – 14 June
Bud Break Date – 18 April
Jones et al, 2005
Gregory V. Jones, PhD
Observed Changes in the Bud Break to Harvest Period in Burgundy
Chabin
and Madelin, 2007
Gregory V. Jones, PhD
Observed Elevational Changes in Burgundy
~ 200 m elevation difference
Chabin
and Madelin, 2007
Gregory V. Jones, PhD
1950-2049 observed and modeled growing season temperature
changes
Trends range from 2.5-3.7°C
Average growing season temperatures
increase 1.8°C between the 1950-
1999 and 2000-2049 50-year periods
Climate Model Predictions
HadCM3
Jones et al, 2005
Gregory V. Jones, PhD
Observed and Projected Average Growing Season Temperatures in Burgundy
Jones et al, 2005
Burgundy Growing Season TavgTrend ~0.26°C/decade (2.6°C overall)
R2 = 0.41
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055
Year
Gro
win
g Se
ason
Ave
rage
Tem
pera
ture
Ano
mal
y (°
C) f
rom
195
0-19
99 a
vera
ge
Gregory V. Jones, PhD
Burgundy’s past and projected future climate change …Average growing season temperatures from 1955-1980 where on average like the coldest years during 1980-2005Average growing season temperatures in 2005-2030 are projected to be like the warmest of years during 1980-2005Is 2003 an analog of future conditions?
Burgundy
1955-1980
1980-2005
2005-2030
2003
Jones, 2006
Gregory V. Jones, PhD
Pinot Noir has a narrow climatic niche for best suitability, quality, and productionPinot Noir climates today are found at ~14-16°C (~1000-1500 GDD)Warming of ~1.0-1.9°C (~160-220 GDD) has occurred over the last 40-50 years in Pinot Noir regionsGrapevines have responded with earlier phenology of ~5-10 days per 1°C of warming, plus a shortening of the intervals between events
Summary
Gregory V. Jones, PhD
Meta-Analysis: ~1.1-4.5°C warming in wine regions globally by 2050Best estimate ~1.7-2.2°C with plants likely showing an additional 9-22 day shiftWarming of this magnitude would push many existing regions outside of what is considered suitable todayUncertainty issues include:
Climate system sensitivityEmission scenario (already at upper end)Changes in extremes (↑ frost, heat, precipitation, etc)Variability in the climate system (↑↑)
Summary
Gregory V. Jones, PhD
Climates have clearly changed … along with temperature we are seeing more evidence of coherent changes in many aspects of Earth’s systemsWhat is absolutely clear from history is that the viticultural climates of tomorrow will not be like the those of today … terroirs as we know them will changeWe view our social and economic systems as static today, however history shows that change should be expectedThe wine industry has tremendous adaptive capacity, but can not achieve it without agreeing there is an issue and developing clear strategies associated with a portfolio of research, policy, adaptation, and mitigation
Conclusions
Gregory V. Jones, PhD
Jean-Pierre Chabin and Malika Madelin, Université de Bourgogne
Allen Holstein, Argyle Winery
Molly Hodgins, Chehalem
Joel Myers, VineTenders
Glenn McGourty, UC Extension
Zac Robinson, Husch Vineyards
Bob Gibson, Roederer Estate
Mike Trought, Marlborough Wine Research Centre
Andrew Hall, Charles Sturt University
Kevin Bell, Mornington Peninsula Vignerons Association
Acknowledgements
Gregory V. Jones, PhD