Great South Bay Great South Bay Restoration ToolsRestoration Tools
Principal InvestigatorsPrincipal Investigators: R. Cerrato, J. Collier, : R. Cerrato, J. Collier, C. Flagg, M. Frisk, C. Gobler, D. Lonsdale, G. C. Flagg, M. Frisk, C. Gobler, D. Lonsdale, G. Lopez, S. Munch, B. Peterson, R. WilsonLopez, S. Munch, B. Peterson, R. Wilson
Graduate StudentsGraduate Students: J. Carroll, D. Duvall, C. : J. Carroll, D. Duvall, C. Harrington, M. McNamara, M. Nuttall, X. Harrington, M. McNamara, M. Nuttall, X. Jiang, J. Pan, M. Sugeno C. WallJiang, J. Pan, M. Sugeno C. Wall
School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences
Stony Brook UniversityStony Brook, NY
Hard Clams
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Tho
usan
ds o
f Bus
hels
Recent changes in Great Recent changes in Great South BaySouth Bay
Winter flounder
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
1938 1983 2007
Ab
un
dan
ce
Eelgrass
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1984 Today
gram
s pe
r sq
uare
met
er
Value of commercial landings
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Suffolk County Population(US census)
Harvesting of sublegal Harvesting of sublegal sizes sizes
Habitat change/lossHabitat change/loss Changes in inlet Changes in inlet
configuration configuration (shoaling/dredging)(shoaling/dredging)
Decline in water qualityDecline in water quality Natural cyclesNatural cycles Brown tideBrown tide Climate changeClimate change Disease/parasitesDisease/parasites Reproductive failureReproductive failure
Predation (ctenophores, crabs, whelks)
Diversion of freshwater by treatment plant
Shift in plankton structure
Loss of feedback effects Nutrient cycle changes Removal from closed
areas Groundwater changes PollutionPollution
■ Overharvesting
Many Possible Causes for Many Possible Causes for DeclinesDeclines
Policy options for Policy options for restoring GSBrestoring GSB
Reduce nutrient input Reduce nutrient input require all south shore homes to be on sewersrequire all south shore homes to be on sewers regulate boat dischargeregulate boat discharge regulation of TMDL (total max daily loading)regulation of TMDL (total max daily loading)
Add clams to the system, create spawner sanctuariesAdd clams to the system, create spawner sanctuaries Eliminate / restrict recreational landings of fish / Eliminate / restrict recreational landings of fish /
shellfishshellfish Reduce shoreline hardening / increase saltmarsh area Reduce shoreline hardening / increase saltmarsh area Plant seagrassPlant seagrass Remove invasive speciesRemove invasive species Promote harvest of blue crabs / whelksPromote harvest of blue crabs / whelks
Which policy options are most likely to succeed?
Too many plausible options….
Which of these will be the most cost effective?
e.g. Seeding of clams v. Harvest of predators
What would be the most efficient implementation?
e.g. Where should clams be deposited? How many do we need?
Project GoalProject Goal Provide managers and policy makers Provide managers and policy makers
a tool for evaluating the likely a tool for evaluating the likely success of various management success of various management strategies. strategies.
TasksTasks construct a model of GSB which construct a model of GSB which
represents all of the major represents all of the major components of the ecosystem. components of the ecosystem.
RoadmapRoadmap Compile all existing data on GSB Compile all existing data on GSB Conduct experiments to fill in critical gaps Conduct experiments to fill in critical gaps
in knowledgein knowledge Create software to model GSB ecosystem Create software to model GSB ecosystem
and user interfaceand user interface
Field studies to validate the model.Field studies to validate the model.
Physical model (temperature, salinity, light, flow)
Food web model(nutrients, plankton, seagrass, crabs, clams, fish)Management actions
Westward Winds
Physical model predicts salinity, temperature, and flow
Salinity
Flow
Phytoplankton
Seagrass
Zooplankton
Clams
Crabs
Fish
Deposit feeders
Sediment
Nutrients
Sediment
Input
Predator-prey interaction
Indirect interaction
Food Web Model ComponentsFood Web Model Components
Additional BenefitsAdditional Benefits
Examine impact of “surprises” (e.g., Examine impact of “surprises” (e.g., disease outbreak, storm created disease outbreak, storm created breach)breach)
Forecast impact of future Forecast impact of future developmentdevelopment
SummarySummary There are many possible policy options for There are many possible policy options for
restoring GSBrestoring GSB Currently develop a tool for evaluating potential Currently develop a tool for evaluating potential
for success of various restoration strategiesfor success of various restoration strategies Model construction underwayModel construction underway Preliminary software expected this summerPreliminary software expected this summer
Future work will include economic evaluation of Future work will include economic evaluation of costscosts