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GPC Exeter forecast for winter 2015-2016
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Global Seasonal Forecast
System version 5 (GloSea5)
• ensemble prediction system
• the source for Met Office monthly and
seasonal forecasts
• uses a coupled model (atmosphere—land-
surface—ocean—sea-ice)
• regular updates
• linked to model development cycle (~ yearly)
• hindcasts computed in near-real time
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Model version: HadGEM3 GC2.0 (UM / NEMO / CICE /
OASIS)
Resolution: N216L85 O0.25L75 (mid-lat: ~60 km atm.)
Forecast length: 7 months (seasonal),
2 months (sub-
seasonal)
Hindcast period: 1996-2009 (14 years)
Model uncertainties represented by stochastic physics
Initial conditions uncertainties represented by a lagged ensemble
GloSea5 operational system
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Initialisation of the system
Forecast (initialised daily):- Atmosphere & land surf *: Met Office NWP analysis (4d-Var)- Ocean & sea-ice: NEMOVAR (3d-Var joint system for ocean, med-range, monthly and seasonal)
14-year hindcast (1996-2009):- Atmosphere & land surf *: ERA-interim - Ocean & sea-ice: NEMOVAR- Fixed start dates of 1st, 9th, 17th, 25th of each month- 3 members per start date
* Soil moisture set to climatological average
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A day in the life of GloSea5
Seasonal
forecasts
~210 daysSub-seasonal
forecasts
~60 days
2 x
2 x
6 xSeasonal
hindcasts
~210 days
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Skill of forecasting system
• ENSO•high correlations of ensemble mean forecasts and observations
•much improved westward extension
•good representation of teleconnections
•NAO
•West Pacific Subtropical High
•rainfall over Yangtze river catchment
•tropical storm numbers and ACE (especially N Atlantic, W Pacific,
Australia); landfall frequency in Caribbean
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© Crown copyright Met Office
•ENSO (seasonal)
•QBO (seasonal)
•ATLANTIC SST (seasonal)
•SEA ICE (interannual)
•SNOW (seasonal)
•VOLCANOES (interannual) – not expected to contribute this year
•SOLAR (interannual) – not expected to contribute this year
Sources of predictability
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© Crown copyright Met Office
•ENSO (seasonal) – strong El Niño → positive NAO early winter, high chance of SSW
late winter•observations, models
•QBO (seasonal) – westerly phase → positive NAO early winter•observations, models (to a certain extent)
•ATLANTIC SST (seasonal) – tripole in May SST → DJF NAO•observations, models
•SEA ICE (interannual) – low September sea-ice → negative DJF NAO•observations, models ; not yet well established
•SNOW (seasonal) – Eurasian snow cover or advance of snow in October →
negative correlation with AO;•observations (no consensus), not in models
Sources of predictability
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© Crown copyright Met Office
ENSO forecasts Nov 2015 – Apr 2016
Nino 3.4
Euro-SIP
GloSea5 (26 Oct-15 Nov)
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© Crown copyright Met Office
Stratosphere 60N
Mean 10 hpa Zonal Wind Anomalies
Initial cond: 3-16 Nov
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© Crown copyright Met Office
Stratosphere 60N – Mean zonal wind
anomaliesInitial cond: 13-16 NovMonthly Seasonal
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•ENSO – strong El Niño → positive NAO early winter, increased
risk of SSW late winter
•QBO – westerly phase → positive NAO early winter
Summary –
sources of predictability
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© Crown copyright Met Office
December-January-February Forecast
GloSea5 initialised around early November
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ECMWF (1981-2010)GloSea 5 (1996-2009)
Met France (1991-2010)
Ensemble mean PMSL DJF
Initial conditions:
26 Oct-15 Nov
40 members
Initial conditions:
1 Nov
NCEP (1982-2011)
Initial conditions:
1 Nov
KMA (1996-2009)
Initial conditions:
26 Oct-5 Nov
Initial conditions:
26 Oct-15 Nov (37 members)
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GloSea5
ECMWF Meteo-France
Upper Troposphere (200hPa) Circulation Anomalies – DJF
Contours: streamfunctiongrey = cyclonic; black = anticyclonic; zonal mean removed; units = km2 s-1
Colours: velocity potential(divergent winds are gradient of vp)
ConvergenceDivergence km2 s-1
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GloSea5
ECMWF Meteo-France
Upper Troposphere (200hPa) Circulation Anomalies – DJF
Contours: streamfunctiongrey = cyclonic; black = anticyclonic; zonal mean removed; units = km2 s-1
Colours: Rossby wave source =
Rate of change of vorticity due to divergence and divergent wind
decreasing vorticity <=increasing vorticity
(10-11 s-2)
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GloSea5
ECMWF Meteo-France
Upper Troposphere (200hPa) Circulation Anomalies – JFM
Contours: streamfunctiongrey = cyclonic; black = anticyclonic; zonal mean removed; units = km2 s-1
Colours: velocity potential(divergent winds are gradient of vp)
ConvergenceDivergence km2 s-1
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GloSea5
ECMWF Meteo-France
Upper Troposphere (200hPa) Circulation Anomalies – JFM
Contours: streamfunctiongrey = cyclonic; black = anticyclonic; zonal mean removed; units = km2 s-1
Colours: Rossby wave source =
Rate of change of vorticity due to divergence and divergent wind
decreasing vorticity <=increasing vorticity
(10-11 s-2)
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© Crown copyright Met Office
PMSL anom by month
Dec
Jan
Met France
1991-2010
GloSea 5
1996-2009
ECMWF
1981-2010
Feb
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Multi-Model DJF
2m temperature tercile probabilities
ECMWF
1996-2009 climate 1981-2010 climate 1991-2010 climateGloSea 5 Meteo France NCEP
1982-2011 climateAbove
Below
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© Crown copyright Met Office
Multi-Model DJF
Precipitation tercile probabilities
ECMWF
1996-2009 climate 1981-2010 climate 1991-2010 climateGloSea 5 Meteo France NCEP
1982-2011 climateAbove
Below
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•There is currently a strong signal, consistent across models, for positive
NAO in early winter. This is consistent with the known drivers (see
below). In late winter, there is a heightened risk of sudden stratospheric
warming but with a large uncertainty in the timing of the impact.
Expected influences this year:
•strong El Niño
•strong influence from the stratosphere (QBO)
Summary
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© Crown copyright Met Office
The end